Hello, This is my first thread on Big Mike's I would like to take this time to go through the last 3 days of trading and some of my thoughts on how they went.
Starting with Wens, I shorted the 106.78 area using new high test as a stop, typically I do not like these types of trades but I saw us ranging so I thought after a lack luster new high I would take a shot, it worked and I covered at 106.19 for a very nice win. 106.78 coincides with my back tested levels so the trade was entirely guess work.
I was happy with myself this day because I managed to keep my profits.
Thurs: Was a day where none of my trades worked in crude every trade I took, 4, were all losers, the only positive thing was I kept my losers in CL small. I also traded Gold and took a small loss on these markets, I'm trying to stick to the idea of 2 trades losers in any market and done I will be focusing more on this in the coming weeks and remaining close to flat until I'm seeing the market properly. I did make one Dow trade which was a small winner but not filled at the price I desired so I exited it prematurely.
Fri- Fri was a a very frustrating day I made 4 trades in crude 2 scratches 1 loss and 1 decent win so wasn't up much the only positive thing I did was stayed away from the market for the bulk of the day, I also took a short near 17788 in Gold which netted an instant win. I will do my best to focus on having small winning days and small losing days until any market is really treating me well and aligning with my levels and set ups. Happy trading.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Burke11 for this post:
Today Mon: was an inside day in crude oil where directional trades never came to fruition. I took a total of 3 trades in crude 2 of them being losers and 1 a scratch. The story was similar in the Dow with a limited trading range. The only market I managed to have a positive outcome in was Gold, but that trade too was a very long and slow moving trade. In conclusion it is best to stay flat for as long as possible in this trading environment.
Today Tuesday: I stuck to my plan and stayed flat for long periods of time. It is looking as though the markets are starting to change from their summer time trading ranges and we are starting to get an expanse in volatility in the crude oil market. Today I traded Gold and Crude, the trade I took in Gold was a break out strategy, I got a little lucky on the fill because it was at a better price than intended and occurred at 17330 and quickly went to the Auto OCO target of 17351. I took 4 trades in crude the first one being an instant loser and the next one being a 20 tick winner a 4 tick winner and a 19 tick winner, I'm especially pleased with my one crude trade where I was filled 104.67 but took it off prematurely at 104.86, overall I can not be upset with myself though because I stayed close to flat the majority of the day and when the market entered near my predefined levels I took trades in it. I will go forward with this mindset not treating any one day as more important than the other in the hopes of taking 2 steps forward and one step back.
20 Aug 2013 1:22:46.000 PM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Sell 1 10486 Market 20 Aug 2013 1:22:46.000 PM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 1:21:05.000 PM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Buy 1 10467 Limit 20 Aug 2013 1:21:05.000 PM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 1:06:39.000 PM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Sell 1 10522 Market 20 Aug 2013 1:06:39.000 PM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 1:04:57.000 PM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Buy 1 10518 Limit 20 Aug 2013 1:04:57.000 PM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 9:26:35.000 AM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Sell 1 10574 Market 20 Aug 2013 9:26:35.000 AM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 9:12:13.000 AM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Buy 1 10554 Limit 20 Aug 2013 9:12:13.000 AM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 9:11:33.000 AM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Sell 1 10553 Market 20 Aug 2013 9:11:33.000 AM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 9:11:02.000 AM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Crude Oil Oct13 Buy 1 10562 Limit 20 Aug 2013 9:11:02.000 AM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 9:06:48.000 AM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Gold Dec13 Sell 1 13751 Limit 20 Aug 2013 9:06:48.000 AM Burke1
20 Aug 2013 9:05:37.000 AM burkem - 500aug14z - Oct 11 SIM:Gold Dec13 Buy 1 13730 Market 20 Aug 2013 9:05:37.000 AM
Today was quite an interesting day in the crude oil complex. I began my trading shortly after the 9:30am EIA petroleum status release we have all grown so fond of. I tend to start Wens after this data is released because I find most of the time crude oil is stuck in a trading range, regardless of whether the prevailing trend is up or down, until these numbers hit the wire. I also try to start my trading process 2-3 mins after the number is released in an effort to let the market clear out the stops on both sides and give me an opportunity to see the failures in the hopes of getting on board the developing move. I took a short after about 2 mins at 104.86, I was expecting this short to play out for about 11-21 cents, which I felt would be a good way to start my trading session. I had not anticipated us dropping so hard so fast though but subsequently giving no follow through. over the course of the next couple mins the market dropped 63 cents in my direction just missing a new low and then bouncing all the way back, I saw this collapse and moved my stop to protect profit in the money 40 ticks at 104.46 and was stopped out very shortly after and to my surprise the market retraced the entire move. Now normally when I have a big winner I chop myself up with small subsequent losers, today I sat on my hands, which was painful to do, and only made one trade in crude. Even though this was mainly due to me missing other set ups and time away from the screen, I stuck to somewhat of a plan and didn't give back to the market. My next two trades came in the afternoon I bought a gold contract at 13646 in the hopes of rally back above pivot, unfortunately before I could even move my target I was filled leaving about 50 ticks of profit on the table, it was slightly disheartening but I would rather have a winner as opposed to a loser. the next trade I made was foolish trade in the dow jones in the face of what I failed to see as a correction I shorted 14903s and got stopped, I was most upset with this trade cause I should no better than to jump on a train, overall a positive day staying flat the majority of the time has been working and I will continue to trade little by little, happy trading!
Today Thursday: Was a very boring day of trading I placed one trade total. So I would like to go over how my thought process was today, since I only made one trade. I woke up late today, which in hindsight I'm not upset with because that unemployment number didn't do much to move the crude oil market and I look at the screen and immediately saw the trading session was a text book inside day. I talked about this in earlier entries and realize I'm not a good trader when the market is presenting an inside day. So my strategy for this action was to sit on my hands. I have found I usually lose all my money on trades that are executed in a very short period of time and in a 20-30 cent range. So to combat these flaws in my trading, I opted to sit flat for as long as possible. That being said I missed out on 1 really good set up, which was a long off of 104.17, I decided though I was not going to beat myself up over this and in turn waited to see where we rallied to and put a short order in at 105.17 that rested there for quite sometime. The afternoon session came and my order was filled the market stalled there, as my ideas of how markets work would suspect. the market then subsequently fell 20 cents and stalled so I covered my position at 104.97. I was happy my trade worked out and proceeded to not give anything back and walked away for the day.
Let's begin with Friday: Friday I began trading early in the morning, a little earlier than I normally do because I knew I was going to be leaving to go out of town around 10am cst. I woke up to find crude down a little bit, but paid little attention to it. I proceeded to search the dow for trades. My first trade of the day was selling 14959s, I sold here thinking it would head lower, I was right it headed 15-17 ticks lower but came right back up to my entry and stopped me out near breakeven at 14957. After seeing price fall and thinking there was follow through to a downside move I proceeded to sell a far worse price of 14947 and get stopped out at 14956. As I reflect on this trade I realize it was a much more sneaky and subtle form of a revenge trade and the trade was placed only 2 mins after the other one, which I have found tends not to work out. As I proceeded to lick my small wounds from the losers in the dow, I began to look at Gold for some opportunity. At first I wanted to walk away only down what I was down, but what I felt was opportunity in gold became to enticing not to pull the trigger. I waited patiently for gold to rally and sold what I thought was near the top before a short term correction. I was wrong, in hindsight had I taken more risk on this short it would had played out for 30 ticks but based on where my stop is, I was stopped out 3 ticks before the short term high. After I lost in this trade I was aggravated, which signaled to me it was time to cut my losses and stop for the day. Even though I lost this day I stuck to a plan and tried not to make losses too damaging and I realized it was time to walk. I know every trade won't be right and the only thing I can do is manage myself.
Monday: I came back from vacation in time to trade the close of the market on Monday afternoon, I watched the market through the lunch time chop for about an hour I proceeded to take a position shortly after the 1pm Bell. I shorted near my number of 106.17 at the price of 106.11 at first the market wasn't really selling at all nor was it going higher, I moved my stop to the price of 106.16 waiting to be hit but to my surprise was never triggered. I then watch the market fall through the 106 even price back down to 93 in the next 15 mins. I was able to cover my short and come out with a winning trade at 105.95. It turns out I covered prematurely, but with just being back from vacation and the market stalling, I was able to walk away from the day with one winning trade and confidence to trade the next day. The idea of small losses and wins either larger than the losses or big runners, is making me be able to continue in trading these difficult markets and keeping me focused.
Tuesday: Tuesday did not start out very well, I was very patient today waking up to crude being above r2 and channeling there, made me very uneasy about taking any trades. After seeing this shape up I proceeded to look at the dow, for some shorting opportunities. I realized the Dow was down a great deal, past S2, and I felt like we had more room to run. I proceeded to short at 14828, to my surprise the market nearly immediately jumped 10 ticks to my stop and then stopping me out. After my first trade of the day being a loser I proceeded to regroup and evaluate before placing another trade. I moved back over to the crude and about 1.5 hours after the first initial loss placed my first and only trade in the crude oil market. With a little help from the recommendation of BB in the chat I shorted one of his harmonic levels at 109.28, not too far off from my levels I like of 109.17. Based on the way the market was running I felt this would be one of those times we surpassed the teen level on the crude oil market in the most recent rally. I then proceeded to cover my short at 109.07, which was early but still the trade was a confidence booster. After I had this nice win in the crude oil market I proceeded to look for a trade in the dow again, feeling 14760 would be the line in the sand for the day and wanting no part if the dow broke 14750 today I placed an order to get filled at 14767. Eventually I was filled I patiently waited for the trade to climb first 10 then 20 ticks in my direction, after climbing over 20 ticks the market fell back to my stop at 14783. None the less this trades win was still bigger than my loss and gave me a small confidence booster to pick winners in the dow. I walked away with an overall positive day, while I stuck to a plan and will be able to trade another day.