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Taking a Trading System Live


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Taking a Trading System Live

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  #381 (permalink)
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How are things?

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  #382 (permalink)
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Update tomorrow.

Sneak peak: Back to 1 contract. Now underwater.

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  #383 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
Update tomorrow.

Sneak peak: Back to 1 contract. Now underwater.

Sorry to hear that.

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  #384 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Sorry to hear that.

Mike

Hey, it happens. Over the years, every system I have ever had has experienced good and bad times.

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kevinkdog View Post
Hey, it happens. Over the years, every system I have ever had has experienced good and bad times.

I assume you didn't have a public journal about all of those

I appreciate the journal, and am actually really glad in many ways for the way things have unfolded. If your journal had documented a system that just skyrocketed up, then it wouldn't be a realistic assessment of what systems traders have to deal with on an ongoing basis.

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  #386 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I assume you didn't have a public journal about all of those

I appreciate the journal, and am actually really glad in many ways for the way things have unfolded. If your journal had documented a system that just skyrocketed up, then it wouldn't be a realistic assessment of what systems traders have to deal with on an ongoing basis.

Mike


I'd prefer the skyrocketing up! But this is real life, so hopefully some newer traders walk away thinking "maybe trading is actually hard."

I always tell people that I used to be in charge of a flight critical component found on 70% of passenger jets. I routinely made decisions that, had I been wrong, many people would likely have died. No one ever died.

Trading is about 100 times harder than that job ever was.

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  #387 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
I'd prefer the skyrocketing up! But this is real life, so hopefully some newer traders walk away thinking "maybe trading is actually hard."

Trading is about 100 times harder than that job ever was.[/B][/COLOR]

Thanks Kevin for your journal! Trading has of course ups and down - every system has the same.
Some drawdowns are not important to change the system's basics.
The same is true if the big wins are flowing in
So stay on track and LET PLAY IT OUT.

GFIs1 wishing good relax this weekend

Edit: to judge a system over time - one has to look over 12 to 24 months..
of course if it is still staying in the race!

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  #388 (permalink)
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I have now been trading this system live for 26 weeks, one half year.

The last 2 weeks the wheels fell off, so to speak. Trading 2 contracts for most of the time only made matters worse.

So, it is back to trading 1 contract for a while, until $10,114 in equity is hit. That, unfortunately, might be a while!



Annualized Return = -25%

Current Drawdown = 22%







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  #389 (permalink)
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Any idea why? Did market change, was it execution? Or is it because of scaling to the second contract?

What are the results for trades with one car vs two cars?

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  #390 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
To make a long story short, I have incorporated some hysteresis in the calculation for number of contracts. This allows some leeway (losses in equity) after you add a contract before you drop down to previous level. I should have included it from the beginning.

The method is this:

As I hit new equity highs (UP), I use the original calculation method

As I fall back on the equity curve (DOWN), I adjust the number of contracts down more slowly than I added them going up.

The net impact of this is that I increase drawdown, and also increase median annual return. A fair tradeoff in my mind.

See details below...




Attachment 135774


Attachment 135775




So, as an example right now, I have fallen down the equity curve, after hitting 2 contracts maximum. So, I will stay at 2 contracts until I hit either $15,171 (when I will add a 3rd contract), or until I fall to $8,778, at which point I will drop back to 1 contract.

I basically can have 3 max losses in a row (-$1335 per contract and still trade the same size.


Did you stick to this when scaling down to the one contract?

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