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Taking a Trading System Live
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Taking a Trading System Live

  #381 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,357 given, 83,237 received

How are things?

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #382 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
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Update Tomorrow

Update tomorrow.

Sneak peak: Back to 1 contract. Now underwater.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #383 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
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Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,357 given, 83,237 received



kevinkdog View Post
Update tomorrow.

Sneak peak: Back to 1 contract. Now underwater.

Sorry to hear that.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #384 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Big Mike View Post
Sorry to hear that.

Mike

Hey, it happens. Over the years, every system I have ever had has experienced good and bad times.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #385 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
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Posts: 46,240 since Jun 2009
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kevinkdog View Post
Hey, it happens. Over the years, every system I have ever had has experienced good and bad times.

I assume you didn't have a public journal about all of those

I appreciate the journal, and am actually really glad in many ways for the way things have unfolded. If your journal had documented a system that just skyrocketed up, then it wouldn't be a realistic assessment of what systems traders have to deal with on an ongoing basis.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #386 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Big Mike View Post
I assume you didn't have a public journal about all of those

I appreciate the journal, and am actually really glad in many ways for the way things have unfolded. If your journal had documented a system that just skyrocketed up, then it wouldn't be a realistic assessment of what systems traders have to deal with on an ongoing basis.

Mike


I'd prefer the skyrocketing up! But this is real life, so hopefully some newer traders walk away thinking "maybe trading is actually hard."

I always tell people that I used to be in charge of a flight critical component found on 70% of passenger jets. I routinely made decisions that, had I been wrong, many people would likely have died. No one ever died.

Trading is about 100 times harder than that job ever was.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #387 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I'd prefer the skyrocketing up! But this is real life, so hopefully some newer traders walk away thinking "maybe trading is actually hard."

Trading is about 100 times harder than that job ever was.[/B][/COLOR]

Thanks Kevin for your journal! Trading has of course ups and down - every system has the same.
Some drawdowns are not important to change the system's basics.
The same is true if the big wins are flowing in
So stay on track and LET PLAY IT OUT.

GFIs1 wishing good relax this weekend

Edit: to judge a system over time - one has to look over 12 to 24 months..
of course if it is still staying in the race!


Last edited by GFIs1; February 15th, 2014 at 06:05 AM.
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  #388 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
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Week 26 Review

I have now been trading this system live for 26 weeks, one half year.

The last 2 weeks the wheels fell off, so to speak. Trading 2 contracts for most of the time only made matters worse.

So, it is back to trading 1 contract for a while, until $10,114 in equity is hit. That, unfortunately, might be a while!



Annualized Return = -25%

Current Drawdown = 22%


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  #389 (permalink)
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Any idea why? Did market change, was it execution? Or is it because of scaling to the second contract?

What are the results for trades with one car vs two cars?

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  #390 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
To make a long story short, I have incorporated some hysteresis in the calculation for number of contracts. This allows some leeway (losses in equity) after you add a contract before you drop down to previous level. I should have included it from the beginning.

The method is this:

As I hit new equity highs (UP), I use the original calculation method

As I fall back on the equity curve (DOWN), I adjust the number of contracts down more slowly than I added them going up.

The net impact of this is that I increase drawdown, and also increase median annual return. A fair tradeoff in my mind.

See details below...

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Attachment 135774


Attachment 135775




So, as an example right now, I have fallen down the equity curve, after hitting 2 contracts maximum. So, I will stay at 2 contracts until I hit either $15,171 (when I will add a 3rd contract), or until I fall to $8,778, at which point I will drop back to 1 contract.

I basically can have 3 max losses in a row (-$1335 per contract and still trade the same size.


Did you stick to this when scaling down to the one contract?

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