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Taking a Trading System Live


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Taking a Trading System Live

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  #351 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
LOL now here is a challenge for you -- name four positive things your strategy has accomplished and ask yourself if those things are more or less important than the four negative "luck of the draw" things you've listed above.

Mike


That is part of my point: most people's brains dwell on the negative things. Notice how I did not say "but I am still up over $1,000 so far." Surely that negates the impact of 4 meaningless (in the grand scheme of things) trades.

Let's flip the whole situation. Let's say I lost money overall so far. Would I also be saying: "but on each of the 4 start dates, I made money, so I am happy?" Probably not.


There is an important lesson here for everyone, especially if you tend to dwell on the negative.

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  #352 (permalink)
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kayaktri View Post
Kevin,

I just finished spending several hours each day over each of the last three days going over this and your Combine journals, and wanted to send a huge thank you for spending the time sharing and educating all of us with your studies. I want to applaud your steadfastness at applying your methodologies and process. It is quite encouraging to see behind the curtain, and also to know the processes you go through to see a strategy through its conception, birth, infancy, and adolescent period. I am thinking your Karma account will increase in multiples for taking your time to assist others in this lofty endeavor, and I for one appreciate it immensely.

Thank you again,

Scott

I spend quite a few hours Saturday reviewing this journal also and you have expressed my sentiments as well. Thank-you Kevin (and Scott)

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  #353 (permalink)
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kevinkdog View Post
So, by my count I have had 4 "rough" starts:

1. Losing day to start Combine #1
2. Losing day to Start Combine #2
3. Losing day to Start Real Money Trading
4. Losing day to Start Real Money Trading, 2 contracts



Based on my strategies (62.8% winning days). the chances of these 4 days all being negative are about 98% against. That is what I call bad luck!


By the way, with today's loss I am back down to trading 1 contract. The fun did not last long!!!!

Given your results i would never try the famous lethal game called Russian roulette.

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  #354 (permalink)
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@kevinkdog, how are things? Is the system running over the holiday period?

Mike

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  #355 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
@kevinkdog, how are things? Is the system running over the holiday period?

Mike

Sorry for the lack of updates. The next big update will be at the end of this week.

Only a few trades since the last post. A nice winner today. Still at one contract size, but pretty close (about $200) to adding on a second contract.

Regarding holidays, I treat that as "trade just how you test." In this case, I tested with trading during holiday periods, so I will be real money trading during holiday period.

There are some funky things that occur during this period, though, so I certainly understand anyone who doesn't trade during this time. Hopefully, they excluded the year end holiday period from testing.


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  #356 (permalink)
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Week 18 is in the books. Profitable week, but I am still only trading 1 contract. Currently tracking at a 42% annual rate of return, which is OK, but well below expectations.

Comments and questions are always welcome.










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  #357 (permalink)
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Happy New Year.

How are things?

Mike

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  #358 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Happy New Year.

How are things?

Mike

Happy New Year to you, too @Bigmike, and to everyone else following this journal.

Right now, I have completed week 20 of live trading. Since the last 2 weeks had a few holidays in them, there was not much trading. But, the system managed to sneak a couple of losses in, so the past 2 weeks were downer.

Overall, still running below expectations.

Still trading 1 contract. Once equity gets above approx $10,100, I will trade 2 contracts.

After 20 weeks, I am up 9.1%. That equates to a 23.7% annual rate of return. Very unspectacular.


Questions and comments, as always, are welcome.








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  #359 (permalink)
detroit, mi
 
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Kevin,

congrats on running the system live this far long. Considering this is a long term endeavor, actually a chosen profession, the 23.7% annual rate of return on the initial 20 week long only window is pretty good, considering your historic trading equity curve had few months long flat periods.

For what it's worth, your work has been motivating and encouraging for trader wannabe like myself.

Wish you much success in 2014.

Regards,
tihfa

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  #360 (permalink)
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Mike

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