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gretaro's TopstepTrader Combine Journal
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gretaro's TopstepTrader Combine Journal

  #51 (permalink)
Gonnamakeit
Reykjavik, Iceland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart, cTrader
Broker/Data: FXCM, IC Markets
Favorite Futures: EUR, AUD, S&P, Bund, Oil, Gold
 
gretaro's Avatar
 
Posts: 85 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 589 given, 101 received

Second trade today.

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I was thinking how I could describe this trade. Something like:

I had the guts to pick up the phone and call the girl I fancy. I waited for her to pick it up but when she did and I heard her voice on the other end I panicked and hung up.

I am not gonna have many dates if I am afraid she will say no. I have to ask.

YES!
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  #52 (permalink)
Elite Member
Miami FL USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign 10, NT7 DOM
Broker/Data: IB, IQ
Favorite Futures: Currency Futures
 
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Thanks for the clarification @gretaro First I want to say, in no way I'm I trying to negate your trade, I believe it was well done and well played. Nice job


But if I may offer some constructive criticism, not of this particular trade, but the (thought) process you detailed of the trade. I believe you left a few clues in your response, that may offer you fuel, direction for further thought.



gretaro View Post
Before I took the trade I had put in a limit order 2@1.3436 and 2@1.3434. Stop on both 15 ticks lower. I however decided to pull the orders because I did not want to get run over by the market.

This is why trading someone else's system rarely works, it doesn't fit your personality, it fits someone else's. I'm going to make many assumptions in this post (forgive me) and hope you can see thru them and find the meat in this sandwich.

OK, you had orders resting 14-16 ticks under the whole number.
WHY?
Because I (Cashish) said so?

Then you pulled your orders because, "I did not want to get run over by the market." Honestly I probably would have pulled them too, if I gave the market a 15 tick (X 4 contracts) stop to "prove my theory (not Me)" wrong. There's a theory behind the 14/16 tick rotations, that theory is, if price "falls out" of the gravitational pull of the whole number, the probability of price moving lower increases. IMO, that gravitational pull extends out 23 ticks from the whole number, in this case, 1.3427. Trading is about RISK, more importantly, controlling the risk on every trade. Now, after the fact, wouldn't this trade have looked much more attractive if you cut the risk on the original entry in half? It appears you wanted to take the first touch of 36/34 long, but then, since you weren't comfortable with the risk level, YOU set for the trade, you waited for, or wanted, confirmation. There's always a price to confirmation. I'll take this example one step further, the projected Decline and Rally Numbers that I've outlined in my thread. I use these numbers as an area where, if the market rallies or declines, I anticipate the market to start "tapping on the brakes" at or near these levels. Today's Decline Number was 1.3427, so with 2 pieces of my analysis identifying possible support below the 36/34 area, that was enough confirmation for me. I hope you realize this example is "textbook," I couldn't have chosen a better example, that's why I'm writing this.

The point I want to make here is, you appear to believe in the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy but not Santa Claus. Just kidding of course, but all systems are usually made up of many different components. I'll reiterate, this is why trading someone else's system rarely works, it's just not your baby. Once again, I'm agreeing with you that the risk level you defined on the trade would have had me deciding, "not to rush into the trade." However, I do believe if you get personal with the theories behind the components I've outlined and "make them your own" you will find them helpful in your trading going forward. But they have to be personal to you, it's you taking the trades, it's your risk, and your profit, I believe there's no other way.

I believe you've uncovered an area in your trading that must be strictly defined, your tolerance for risk. I also believe some trades require more breathing room than others, and, as in this example standing in front of a train can be quite scary, but if the risk of the trade is predefined and strictly enforced, you're only following the plan. Don't try to be perfect, try to be comfortable, comfortable with losing. Take a longer term view of your trading, not minutes or hours, but look at your profitable (and losing) trades over a period of days and weeks.



gretaro View Post
But I am also trying to break the habit of always going against the trend without proper reason and also have my targets....well my targets are a work in progress.

The jury is still out on the definition of a trend. You said it yourself, "Price was in a range between 1.3466 and 1.3445 (Edit,,,'65 to '46)." The move down to '32 extended that 19 tick range to a 33 tick range. IMO, it might be a little premature to call the move to '32 a trend. What was the high, '66.... that's how many ticks above the whole number '50... The whole premise of this trade is "normal" rotation around a whole number! This rotation can wear many disguises, and often looks very ugly but at the end of the day it looks like a well balanced rotation around a whole number, it's kinda like not being able to see the forest for the trees. Your statement contradicts the whole whole idea behind this trade, fade the extreme. The inverse of this trade appeared around 2am est. and once prior to that during the Asian session. We all know what the target is/was on this trade(s), out of respect, I won't go there, my point here is the same, get comfortable with the risk involved in trading and don't be afraid to step in front of (what appears to be) a train, it's just money (not your children, house or manhood ), and yes some of these trades are going to lose! I don't think, " trying to break the habit of always going against the trend" is actually a habit that needs broken, if you have the, "proper reason" that's what this post is about.



gretaro View Post
After the week I am going to go over what could have been and then maybe move them out further.

Good idea


Last edited by Cashish; November 16th, 2013 at 09:21 AM.
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  #53 (permalink)
Gonnamakeit
Reykjavik, Iceland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart, cTrader
Broker/Data: FXCM, IC Markets
Favorite Futures: EUR, AUD, S&P, Bund, Oil, Gold
 
gretaro's Avatar
 
Posts: 85 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 589 given, 101 received


Thanks @Cashish.

I find your posts a lot like good songs. They take awhile (for me at least) to sink in.

F.ex. when you talked about rotation the first time I thought, while I was reading your post, that I understood what you were saying. Then I realized that I did not understand it really. What does rotation mean and what does it look like. How do you trade it?

Now however I think my understanding is slowly getting better but slowly. I think I can say that about all aspects of my trading.

I agree with you that I can not trade a system that is not mine. That is why I pulled the orders @1.3436 and .3434. I did not trust myself. I have to do my own research and build trust in a method. Until that happens I will watch those levels and maybe try to trade them after I get some confirmation. This is not the ideal way to trade, I know that. I will always get a worse price if I wait for confirmation. I think that this is at the moment thou the only way for me since I do not really have any method that I have tested to the point that I would feel comfortable entering with limits at what seems like points where the market could run you over. I would not know where to put my stop. If I wait for some confirmation I should at least have a place to put it. I am however going to get personal with the theories you have outlined.

This comes then to my second trade from Friday and another point you make in your post. And what I think is probably the thing I really have to get over in order to go to the next level: My tolerance for risk or unwillingness to take a loss. I do not like to take a loss. The funny thing is that it bothers me more to take a loss after I am up than taking a loss on the first trade of the day or when I am down. I have to get over this mental problem. I will....it just takes time.

This trading thing is all about the way you think. I know it when all of a sudden I start to think about something you wrote and I start to understand what you really mean (I think ).

YES!
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  #54 (permalink)
Gonnamakeit
Reykjavik, Iceland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart, cTrader
Broker/Data: FXCM, IC Markets
Favorite Futures: EUR, AUD, S&P, Bund, Oil, Gold
 
gretaro's Avatar
 
Posts: 85 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 589 given, 101 received

After going over my trades from last week I can say that I took profits much to quickly on all but one trade (just traded 4 times though). Got 47 ticks from those 4 trades but should have taken much more. Left anywhere from 23 - 64 ticks on the table. Not that I should expect to sell/buy the absolute high or low but with so much more of the move left after I take of my position it is a shame not to capture some more of it.

My entries were OK. Worst MAE was 11 ticks and would not have been more than that for me to capture larger chunk of the move.

Subject of this week to try to hold for a little more of the move. Might try to scale out and trail rest.

YES!
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  #55 (permalink)
Gonnamakeit
Reykjavik, Iceland
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: SierraChart, cTrader
Broker/Data: FXCM, IC Markets
Favorite Futures: EUR, AUD, S&P, Bund, Oil, Gold
 
gretaro's Avatar
 
Posts: 85 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 589 given, 101 received

Monday 18th November 2013

One trade today.

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When I entered the trade I felt I was jumping the gun. That the trade was impulsive and I thought about exiting. I was a little frustrated that I had not gotten to the markets sooner today and I could feel I wanted to be in the market. I have to control the urge to click the mouse button.

Anyway what I thought when I looked at the 15 min chart was: 1) Reversal, price often (I think have not studied it but seen it happen what I think again and again) reverses during the US session, 2) Price has fallen back under the R1, 3) Price has come into the gravitational pull of the round number 4) Big news coming out for the rest of the week unlikely that price will travel far today.

I therefore decided to stay in the trade and let it play out. Good call. The "only" thing I could have done better was to target the whole number.

YES!
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