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FredDecker's Trading Journal
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FredDecker's Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Duisburg, Germany
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TWS, NinjaTrader, MT4
Broker/Data: FXCM, Interactive Brokers, Oanda
Favorite Futures: Forex
 
Posts: 129 since Aug 2013
Thanks: 55 given, 44 received


FredDecjer View Post
Plan Followed? Yes

Very refreshing to see people following their plan so consistently; and, as kevinkdog said, that assuming you have a well thought out and comprehensive plan, then it will do well.

Keep up the good work.

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  #12 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: T4
Favorite Futures: Euro F/X
 
Posts: 47 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 15 given, 65 received

8-16-2013 Journal Entry

JGSmith -- Thank you for your comment! I am trying to focus on my actions (which I can control) rather than my outcomes (which I cannot). I am only partially successful -- it's hard for me to execute a trade properly, take a loss and really believe I have taken a good trade to the same extent I would if the outcome was profitable.

Trades: 0

Daily Trading Goal: Today is my last day of sitting on the sidelines before returning to live action on Monday. My goal is to continue my dual focus of executing my normal trades in my practice account while continuing my back testing.

Best & Worst: Not trading has been a challenge to my psychology -- doubly so because my practice account trades have been so successful this week. My normal strategies made $960. I updated my options expiration week test results to include this new data. It is possible my decision to not trade options expiration week was wrong, but it's too early to tell I think. One week which is a statistical out lier is not sufficient reason to alter my plan.

What Did I Learn Today? Kevin Davey gave another terrific presentation on his experience trading the Combine. I look forward to reviewing Kevin's talk on the Topstep Trader video archive.

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  #13 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Yokohama South Korea
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: CTS
Favorite Futures: gold
 
Posts: 102 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 87 given, 56 received


hello Fred. I've also begun to recognize the importance of avoiding certain trading days. each week I have 3-4 profitable days mixed with 1 or 2 blowup days. if I could avoid those blowup days I'd be fantastically profitable :-). but I just can't figure out which 1 or 2 days to not trade. :-(

one of my trading philosophy is - "every day in trading, there are people who make money, why can't I always be one of them?" so far I have failed to do so. but I just couldn't give up the idea. I kept thinking that if I get good enough then I wouldn't have a losing day at all. and by my own trading experience I had glimpsed that it might not be an impossible goal. however it's so hard to achieve sometimes I ask myself why bother? why not just become a mediocre trader. why do I keep driving myself up the wall?

I don't know why I'm telling you this. it's probably that you're doing something that was nearly impossible for me to do, however it has become quite urgent for me to decide whether or not to keep fighting everyday or to select the days to fight. it's so difficult to change, it feels like giving up.

so anyway, I just admire your discipline to stick to your plan. and I'd like to acknowledge that what a difficult thing it is.

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  #14 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
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Sayounara View Post
hello Fred. I've also begun to recognize the importance of avoiding certain trading days. each week I have 3-4 profitable days mixed with 1 or 2 blowup days. if I could avoid those blowup days I'd be fantastically profitable :-). but I just can't figure out which 1 or 2 days to not trade. :-(

one of my trading philosophy is - "every day in trading, there are people who make money, why can't I always be one of them?" so far I have failed to do so. but I just couldn't give up the idea. I kept thinking that if I get good enough then I wouldn't have a losing day at all. and by my own trading experience I had glimpsed that it might not be an impossible goal. however it's so hard to achieve sometimes I ask myself why bother? why not just become a mediocre trader. why do I keep driving myself up the wall?

I don't know why I'm telling you this. it's probably that you're doing something that was nearly impossible for me to do, however it has become quite urgent for me to decide whether or not to keep fighting everyday or to select the days to fight. it's so difficult to change, it feels like giving up.

so anyway, I just admire your discipline to stick to your plan. and I'd like to acknowledge that what a difficult thing it is.


Would imposing a daily loss limit on your trading prevent or minimize the blowup days, while leaving most of the profitable days intact?

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #15 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Yokohama South Korea
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: CTS
Favorite Futures: gold
 
Posts: 102 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 87 given, 56 received


kevinkdog View Post
Would imposing a daily loss limit on your trading prevent or minimize the blowup days, while leaving most of the profitable days intact?

I think so, but I'm not sure.

things usually go very smoothly on my winning days. I've high winning percentages and fantastic R:R.

but there are also days when I had to struggle, suffer a drawdown then turn it green, after-trade-analysis generally indicate that such days are caused by errors in my decision-making that could have been avoided.

and then there are the downright losing days, during which I couldn't come back from initial drawdowns and at some point I'd just snap and forget all about trade-management, risk management etc.

the major cause of that is psychologically I can't accept a losing day. when one does occur I'd pour over it to look for ways to modify my decision making process to turn it green. so far I've always been able to do this successfully. but it does have consequences. one is that by modifying the way I trade after a losing day, I render my previous winning records useless. and my trading method is completely intuitive, so it's almost impossible for me to backtest reliably.

I'm slowly coming to terms with the necessity of having a daily loss limit. but accepting that equals accepting I can not make money every day. I think I still require some additional beating from the market before really grasping it. https://futures.io/images/smilies/gtn/pcguru.gif

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  #16 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
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Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
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Sayounara View Post
I think so, but I'm not sure.

things usually go very smoothly on my winning days. I've high winning percentages and fantastic R:R.

but there are also days when I had to struggle, suffer a drawdown then turn it green, after-trade-analysis generally indicate that such days are caused by errors in my decision-making that could have been avoided.

and then there are the downright losing days, during which I couldn't come back from initial drawdowns and at some point I'd just snap and forget all about trade-management, risk management etc.

the major cause of that is psychologically I can't accept a losing day. when one does occur I'd pour over it to look for ways to modify my decision making process to turn it green. so far I've always been able to do this successfully. but it does have consequences. one is that by modifying the way I trade after a losing day, I render my previous winning records useless. and my trading method is completely intuitive, so it's almost impossible for me to backtest reliably.

I'm slowly coming to terms with the necessity of having a daily loss limit. but accepting that equals accepting I can not make money every day. I think I still require some additional beating from the market before really grasping it. https://futures.io/images/smilies/gtn/pcguru.gif

It sounds like you really understand your issues, and have spent a lot of time thinking about them and correcting them. Most people never get as far as you do in analyzing themselves. That is really good.

Making money every day is really hard, from my experience. During some of my best years, I'd only have 55% or so winning days in the course of a year. Of course, that is for the way I trade, but hopefully you see my point - winning days aren't necessarily all that important.

Have you ever thought about a longer term focus? Instead of every day being profitable, aim for having every week profitable. That might change your focus enough to eliminate some of those big loss days.

Good Luck!

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #17 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: T4
Favorite Futures: Euro F/X
 
Posts: 47 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 15 given, 65 received

8-19-2013 Journal Entry

Great conversation Sayounara and kevinkdog! I agree with the observation that good trading days can seem so easy. Why can't trading be so easy all the time? I think kevinkdog's thoughts on loss limits are good food for thought. Recovering from blow-out days is hard work!

Trades: 1

Plan Followed? Yes

Daily Trading Goals: My trading plan calls for me to limit risk on Mondays so I don't start the week in a financial hole if my trade outcomes are unfavorable. If my first trade is a loser today I will stop trading for the day.

Best & Worst: I lost - $130 on my Bond trade today and it would have been easy to keep trading -- I think my psychology is stronger on Mondays -- but my plan calls for me to shut down if my first trade of the week is a loser so I did.

What did I learn today? Over the weekend I was thrilled to get a primitive automated back test to run using an Excel spreadsheet. My test reminds me of the Wright Brothers' flight at Kitty Hawk, N. C. My test is flimsy, I need to make improvements so my results aren't gibberish -- but the sucker flew!

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  #18 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, IL, USA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: T4
Favorite Futures: Euro F/X
 
Posts: 47 since Oct 2011
Thanks: 15 given, 65 received

8-20-2013 Journal Entry

Trades: 0

Plan followed? Yes

Daily Trading Goals: My primary goal is to accept opportunity according to my strategies. Secondarily, I want to correct my automated back test results so the data produces reliable results. I thought corrections would be an afterthought, but the task is proving more difficult than I expected!

Best & Worst: No trades set up for me today, so I stayed out -- no trades. In addition to working on my automated back testing strategy I am testing past market reaction to various news releases, trying to locate tradeable opportunities. The EIA Petroleum Status Report comes out tomorrow!

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  #19 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
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FredDecjer View Post
Trades: 0

Plan followed? Yes

Daily Trading Goals: My primary goal is to accept opportunity according to my strategies. Secondarily, I want to correct my automated back test results so the data produces reliable results. I thought corrections would be an afterthought, but the task is proving more difficult than I expected!

Best & Worst: No trades set up for me today, so I stayed out -- no trades. In addition to working on my automated back testing strategy I am testing past market reaction to various news releases, trying to locate tradeable opportunities. The EIA Petroleum Status Report comes out tomorrow!

Great job following the plan! The importance of discipline cannot be underestimated.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
London UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: IG Index
Favorite Futures: FX. Futures, Spreadbetting
 
Posts: 78 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 160 given, 40 received



FredDecjer View Post
Daily Trading Goals: My primary goal is to accept opportunity according to my strategies. Secondarily, I want to correct my automated back test results so the data produces reliable results. I thought corrections would be an afterthought, but the task is proving more difficult than I expected!

Hi Fred

We are definitely going to have a chat over the back testing methods - manual takes way too long and auto has many curve fitting potential issues - what a dilemma!

Best of luck and see you in TST chat.

Cheers

Graeme

Never stop learning - never stop applying the knowledge.
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