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trader000's Topstep Trader Combine Journal
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trader000's Topstep Trader Combine Journal

  #21 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received

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New combine rules, in particular eliminating the 'time in trade' (TIT) part should be good for me. I did not like that time was a factor - if a trade moves in my favor quickly and I get a profit, what's the difference if it takes 1 minute or 10 minutes? Profit is profit IMO. And it also forced people to game the system, which they mentioned in the squawk. And I did it at times - if my winning TIT was less than my losing TIT, a quick way to fix that is get in a trade with a 1 tick stop. Good chance that stop will be hit rather quickly and can get my losing TIT under 30 seconds. This of course forces you to lose $12.50 + commissions each trade, but it did lower your losing TIT.

So they eliminated the need to take these TIT lowering trades, which just makes obvious sense. While the TIT looked good on paper and in theory, very quick and easy to game that stat.

Links about combine changes:
Updated Combine Rules ? Help & Feedback Center
Minimum Balance Defined ? Help & Feedback Center
Updated Funded Trader Rules ? Help & Feedback Center

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  #22 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received

8/23/2013

An uneventful week on the combine for me, back at it Monday. No trades today.
Have a great wknd!

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  #23 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received


8/26/2013

One advantage to focusing on a handful of markets to trade is that you can learn the market and what is normal or not normal. Today beans opened w/ some large 1 minute bars (which can happen on the pit open), but the large bars and big moves stayed. Typically my 3 point stop provides plenty of room and today it was clear to see early that my stop level was going to be much closer than normal so I did not trade on T4. I could see a trade entry and where my stop would be and usually it's far enough that the trade has room, but today that same stop size would not be under/above my entry bar! That is very odd.

Volume in the Nov'13 contract as I write this is over 150k. You can see under 100k for the entire day some days.

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  #24 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received

Follow up to knowing your market(s).

From the pit open today, something was off. At the time I did not exactly what was causing it, I just knew the charts were saying something was off.

I later see this article: Soybean, Corn, And Wheat Prices Are Surging | Zero Hedge

Then the ZS hits limit up around 2pm EST.

And if you didn't know what limit up was or what happened, your DOM was telling you something was up too:

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  #25 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received

Side note - I have been tracking the soybeans market extensively since March and this is the first time I encountered a limit up situation. While it was going on, I sent an IM to a trading group on Skype that I talk with the following:
[2:05:34 PM] but it may not be allowed to b/c keeps stopping at 13.98
[2:05:47 PM] thats +.70
[2:06:06 PM] so an easy short? lol
[2:08:25 PM] or just keep shorting it damn, it's not allowed to break lol
[2:08:39 PM] probably get huge slippage on the buy stop
[2:08:39 PM] can load the boat and take a few ticks
[2:08:55 PM] or more than a few ticks, wow
[2:08:58 PM] nice 1min bar
While we were joking in chat about this, I sat and wondered - if price is not allowed to break 13980, why not short it? But I am unfamiliar with how limit up's work and in hindsight it was a great, simple trade w/ lots of profit available. Assuming the +.70 level is unable to be broken, seems like a high probability short. One problem w/ this strategy though - you may not trade for months and months.

Here's the 1 minute chart of ZSX3 today and where we started to discuss in our Skype group about a high probability short area:

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Video on limit up and limit down:
Understanding Limit Up and Limit Down - MoneyShow.com

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  #26 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
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trader000 View Post
Assuming the +.70 level is unable to be broken, seems like a high probability short.

If someone told you this was a good idea, please - for the sake of your account - do NOT listen to them again. EVER. This was anything BUT a high probability short.

When "lock limits" hit - that's what Beans had for a while today - it may not unlock for days.


Here is an example. Maybe on the day circled you thought price can't go any lower because it hit its daily limit, so its a high probability long.

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Problem is, no one else thought buying was a good idea...for days.

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This was the 2003 Mad Cow incident in Live Cattle. I got long 2 hours before the Mad Cow event occurred. I got smashed over the next week.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #27 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received

Thanks Kevin! This was the first limit up that I saw in real-time so we were joking in Skype about it, but then I started to think out loud. It just doesn't happen enough for me to have experience with it so today was a big learning experience.

So a follow up question when the day limit is hit -- how/when does price start to move again? I saw beans hit their limit and you could tell on the chart easily with the dashes nothing was going on for 6 minutes. Then price started to move and trading resumed. Then it got back to the limit level and stopped for 1 minute this time. Then it tested the limit level one more time and promptly sold off w/ no break when the level was hit.

I don't understand how/when the exchange freezes prices and when it starts to trade again.

Thanks!

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  #28 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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trader000 View Post
Thanks Kevin! This was the first limit up that I saw in real-time so we were joking in Skype about it, but then I started to think out loud. It just doesn't happen enough for me to have experience with it so today was a big learning experience.

So a follow up question when the day limit is hit -- how/when does price start to move again? I saw beans hit their limit and you could tell on the chart easily with the dashes nothing was going on for 6 minutes. Then price started to move and trading resumed. Then it got back to the limit level and stopped for 1 minute this time. Then it tested the limit level one more time and promptly sold off w/ no break when the level was hit.

I don't understand how/when the exchange freezes prices and when it starts to trade again.

Thanks!

It unfreezes if/when someone is willing to sell below the limit price. So, is limit price is 1398, and no one wants to sell here, no trading takes place, until someone agrees to sell at 1398. Today, that happened 6 minutes later.

Many times, the price will be locked until the next day.

So, you could have sold at 1398, the market stays limit up, and then tomorrow (tonight actually) the price could open 20 more cents higher. You are out at least $1000 per contract in that case.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #29 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Ohio USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, T4
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 65 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 23 given, 64 received


kevinkdog View Post
It unfreezes if/when someone is willing to sell below the limit price. So, is limit price is 1398, and no one wants to sell here, no trading takes place, until someone agrees to sell at 1398. Today, that happened 6 minutes later.

Many times, the price will be locked until the next day.

So, you could have sold at 1398, the market stays limit up, and then tomorrow (tonight actually) the price could open 20 more cents higher. You are out at least $1000 per contract in that case.

Great info, thanks!

So if it stayed locked at 1398, on the re-open price resets and can move higher? But it can't move higher in the current pit session?

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  #30 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
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trader000 View Post
Great info, thanks!

So if it stayed locked at 1398, on the re-open price resets and can move higher? But it can't move higher in the current pit session?

Right. Exchanges have defined rules for all of this - the amount of limit, etc. Probably some obscure rules, too.

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