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BigKahunaDogs Journal
Started:July 14th, 2013 (08:40 PM) by KahunaDog Views / Replies:8,837 / 201
Last Reply:October 28th, 2016 (02:56 AM) Attachments:64

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BigKahunaDogs Journal

Old February 26th, 2015, 09:42 PM   #71 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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2/25/15
No trades, I was operating on low sleep so needed 2more hours of sleep.
My homework lines were respected, there was a near perfect set up 2min before London open. Opening just under resistance(one of my homework lines) in a downtrending(weekly/daily) market, forming a lower high on the short term, risk was 5ticks for a 48tick leg down. Nice move I missed.

Sometimes I try to get a swing trade as I sleep(thru London am) if London Open has a set up.

For my normal trading hours, NY am today I missed 4 legitimate trades(+15/+25, -6/-6, -5/-5, +15/+25) as I slept thru purposefully today. Systems going good. Just need the time at cpu and discipline to implement correctly.

Still not positive in TST. But am confidant with the methodology I am using. Need a bit of work on the discipline of order entry as I've had errors(2) on entries using sim vs tst vs my live acct. Considering bringing up stop loss to Break even at +12ticks from the signal. This way I respect the normal rotation even if I have a slipped entry I can go break even.

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Old February 27th, 2015, 12:30 AM   #72 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Took this sim and small live.
Small due to volume and time of day.

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Old February 27th, 2015, 02:55 AM   #73 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 399 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received


^
-6
volumes too light this time of day

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Old March 1st, 2015, 01:20 AM   #74 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 399 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

Adjusting my Break even (BE) point several ticks from t1 with Ninjatrader ATM. I used to go BE for t2 after t1 was hit(manually), but markets been changing and CL can move against one fast.

This hasn't been a good first Combine. But I am confidant with my methodology. Might have to back-test and sim more before I can pass the Combine. I've signed with S5 this past week and will begin using their perks like the trade analyzer on top of using Tradervue.

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Old March 2nd, 2015, 03:31 AM   #75 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Futures Edge on FIO

Are you a NinjaTrader user?

 
This is what I'm looking at, the next supports I'm seeing this drop to is

49.15
48.90

While the 4hr and weekly I'm concerned about a higher low being created, by the bulls...thus slowing or tripping up the bears


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Old March 6th, 2015, 08:39 PM   #76 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 399 since Apr 2013
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I've been laying low looking for set ups and waiting out some of the news. I was close to my max drawdown so trying to cherry pick days and set ups.

TST - failed


I surpassed the MAX drawdown on my TST Combine.

I am reviewing my trades this weekend.


I have begun using Tradervue and finding it especially useful with some of my errors. I need to clean up my errors. I have been missing trades. As in there are trades and I am there and not take them, or I am physically not there.
There are also errors unrelated to trading. A few times I took trades on my Sim and not on the TST account.

I have also begun using S5 trade analyzer. My funds transfer should be finished by next week, then I will have full access to their perks. There is another trade analyzer I have access to as well, will consider using it later, it's similar to TST in documentation for prop trading.

TST
Bad news
Failed Max drawdown
I need more structure while waiting for my levels - missed some trades(some by mere nano secs, some AFK)



Good news

My Stop Losses never exceeded my parameters(15ticks)
Kept Daily Max Losses within parameters
Always ran a Hard Stop Loss "except for an entry error" which I had to manually exit.
Kept total daily trades under 4 a day
Had enough discipline to keep trade type to 2 trade types

Plan of Action
*Keep working on my Process goals during the day, refining it...keep some of the good, expunge the negligible
*More back testing - I need to see if playing more with my Stop Loss by 1to3ticks will matter, as multiple trades stopped to the tick. Literally picked the top/bottom of the day.
*Going to run more sims - watching Naked Price Action(rustier than I thought), basic patterns, 1 or 2 mas for direction and moving s/r
*Tweak entry parameters - looser, tighter, see if it matters


Ultimately there are several things I need to work on, for me to move forward and progress.

*Discipline while waiting for the trade to set up. Part of this I am addressing with a level alarm and homework notes
*Make and utilize a better checklist when deciding to Fire off a trade. ie- acct#, lot total, atm type, More than 1 error from here
*re-Make Actions to take During Trades. When to keep SL loose vs Moving Stops tighter, pattern failure recognition -signalling to dos,
*TST specific I think I may need to restrategize my scaling, possibly even a (EDIT- ) different market or sized account to keep % of capital with in confines of being able to stay in the game after a series of losses.


I also have some statistics I want to investigate on CL. With regards to various including time, length of runs, time in trades, regression trades, etc.

I will also consider trading another market. CL moves so fast at times it is a double edged sword.
I've had success in ES over the long term(not recently since not tracking it) and may consider watching it more closely and going back. ES moves slower, so I can check the chart every couple of minutes...vs CL develops faster and can breakout or be at and pass my entries before I can move.
It is a conundrum...CL movement, ES trade range. Possibly different types of traders and styles from entry, SL and management.

Also a 'want' is I'd like to get a better cpu designed for trading. NT crashes atleast 1x a week and I want to run Sierra or similar for volume profiling.

OT
Kewl that the trader - PACTRADER, is a TST newly funded trader, trades only CL and from the same island I am. I would like to hook up with him, another kewl factor, he bumped futures.io (formerly BMT) in his TST interview(I've yet to listen to it, but said in email or his profile on TST).


Last edited by KahunaDog; March 6th, 2015 at 09:21 PM.
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Old March 7th, 2015, 03:39 AM   #77 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 399 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

Some Jesse Livermore quotes for the mental capitol

"Tape reading was an important part of the game, so was beginning at the right time, so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities"

"Emotional control is the most essential factor in playing the market. Never lose control of your emotions when the market moves against you. Don't get too confidant over your wins or too despondent over your losses."


A lot of 'experts' and professionals mention Psychology. I was thinking about this recent Combine as I was at the gym.
Psychology hasn't been a Huge issue at this time. For me this was due to I know my signal and parameters of entry. SL is a clear line in the sand. It either profits or takes a "cost of doing business"(loss). The cost of doing business is capped per trade. Profits are capped per trade. Daily Max loss and Daily Max trades cap losses.
These things help prevent the dreaded TILT.


I will work on my paper trading
Specifically
Expectancy - starting with 30trades using Tradervue and s5 analyser.
figure my K-ratio


Maintaining
KISS
same homework strategy
same entry signal
same business hours


To consider altering
due to cL volatility and thin market giving a certain buffer for my s/r lines for both entries and targets
will consider 1-2+ ticks more than my former exit signal, if SL parameters are within and will be in guidelines
daily checklists during day
entry checklists
minimizing execution chart till within 15 or so ticks of entry
will look at using a t3 as average win to loss ratio will be significantly higher and statistically my t3 is a statistical number that occurs regularly


Clean up my non trade related errors.
Figure my expectancy and K ratio
Finally, Risk Management is my number one priority.

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Old March 9th, 2015, 06:45 PM   #78 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 399 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

I am always amazed and entertained at the plethora of Yoda type articles and traders pointing at psychology as their issues.
(how much of this is marketing? how much geared to retail traders? how many punters just parroting?)


I feel this is cliche.
If 90% of the market participants loose...
then why are so many 'experts' saying it's psychological?



If you have a method. With clear near mechanical like parameters, psychology shouldn't be an issue. Signal to enter. Parameters or signal to exit.

Scientific method. Come up with hypothesis, set parameters, get a small sample size, analyze-refine, execute larger sample size, analyze, repeat.

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Old March 17th, 2015, 11:10 AM   #79 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
KahunaDog's Avatar
 
Posts: 399 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

A bit miffed. I keep picking the trades right before a big move then get stopped out. Not 1x, not 2x but multiple times like 25+. Half I am not letting the trade work by dialing down the StopLoss and hiding behind a big buyer or seller, the other half I get wicked.

ie-
short CL at 43.80, it then in the next few bars drops to 42.60...100plus ticks. I had moved my SL to 43.81 cause price didn't move right away.
short GC 1151.80, it drops 10.00 (or 100ticks) but at 1150.00 it wicks me out(-10) on a retail flush and possibly on sitting on orders there. I did make an error here in not moving stop to break even after + my BE point.
Others as well.

I'm having 3 other people study my trades on Tradervue journal for next week, so hopefully we can dial it in a bit more. I don't want to be loose on my Stops as Risk is my primary concern.

The Tradervue is going well, I like it, just need to learn it and practice a few more things on it. I also want to have a more consistent template on my input.

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Old March 17th, 2015, 11:33 AM   #80 (permalink)
Elite Member
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: AUD
 
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KahunaDog View Post
I am always amazed and entertained at the plethora of Yoda type articles and traders pointing at psychology as their issues.
(how much of this is marketing? how much geared to retail traders? how many punters just parroting?)


I feel this is cliche.
If 90% of the market participants loose...
then why are so many 'experts' saying it's psychological?



If you have a method. With clear near mechanical like parameters, psychology shouldn't be an issue. Signal to enter. Parameters or signal to exit.

Scientific method. Come up with hypothesis, set parameters, get a small sample size, analyze-refine, execute larger sample size, analyze, repeat.

I think it depends on your personality and how you deal with the day to day. If you have the personality who can focus and follow through with a plan then what you said applies. However, in my case I suffer from distraction and always wanting to make it better and general lack of focus when executing a plan. Several years ago if you were to give me a plan I would have not been able to follow it. However, using mindfulness I have been able to identify what gets me off track and keep it under control. As such my trading has improved.

There is a test out there called HBDI. You can Google it. It identifies your brain dominance. I am dominant Yellow / Blue with some Green and Red. Which means, I am able to see the big picture (Yellow), I am able to anlayze the problem and come up with t a better solution (Blue), however I am unable to consistently execute the solution/plan because of my lack Green. As a side note this is improving. On the plus side I dont get very upset about problems because I lack red. This would explain why I am still trading. Edit: I think people who are Blue/Green dominant would have a distinct advantage in trading.

Curious as to where you think you fit.

Robert


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