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BigKahunaDogs Journal
Started:July 14th, 2013 (08:40 PM) by KahunaDog Views / Replies:8,803 / 201
Last Reply:October 28th, 2016 (02:56 AM) Attachments:64

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BigKahunaDogs Journal

Old March 1st, 2016, 03:33 PM   #111 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 398 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

Got my nt8 up and running so I am good to go.
Sadly I can't trade till late next week.
This is a rare instance like 2x a year, when I cannot have market access, but it cooincides with this TST combine.

I am just going to tweak my charts a bit more. I also need to get my live account on nt8 up as right now it is only connected to TST data.

I have to adjust location of my delta, font, color and a few other chart nuances I like.

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Old March 1st, 2016, 06:03 PM   #112 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 398 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

tues day2

Still no entries as I have been trying to set up cpu. It finally seems 95% there since nt8 and nt7 updates.

As I was working on my chart nuances saw order flow for a great entry at a swing top, counter trend but it is one I would have taken. Note I did not take this. Here's a shot of a nice 5min chart not my signal chart but it gives a good visual of an entry I would have liked. Since this is the beginning of the TST combine I probably would've just scalped a few ticks. If I had enough buffer for a runner, the exit signal would've allowed 3points.

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I may or may not enter a trade tomorrow, depends on my scheduling and if the market looks like it is providing a set up.
I will be afk from charts for 1week.
Then I will resume and really begin this combine.

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Old March 2nd, 2016, 01:00 AM   #113 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 398 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received


Some of you may like this.

https://sites.sas.upenn.edu/duckworth/pages/research

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Old March 2nd, 2016, 01:38 PM   #114 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

I don't like this chart as far as edge to trade, but this is good odds if we can stay below 1975...
to 1953
to 1943

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Old March 10th, 2016, 11:49 AM   #115 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 398 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received

Futures Edge on FIO
Back from taking my son to a big Judo tournament. He did well. 2nd, lots of effort in practice and in matches. Good technique and some that needs work. Good life lessons.

That was 5days away from the market.
But I'll never get those moments back with my family, so it was a wise choice.

I traded 1day before I left. A few losses with 2 lots, max loss size was 5ticks in ES. Took about 2 too many trades.
I traded yesterday got a decent 4point trade.
Last night I saw the ES set up, traded in sim not tst. Took a -5tick loss, saw the swing being created for the turn long which was right after my stop. But I was doing other things and didn't think you can trade tst in eth. A good friend just told me you can. I need to reread that thread and rules again.

Got some decent trades today.
1. Got in my first trade, it went +4to5ticks, I waited too long to kill it and it turned trade took a -2ticks at 2lots.
2. Got in with 2, momentum was going my way added 4 more, took about 10ticks each then bailed on 5/6. *note recall I am trying to just build with some small trades then I can start using runners. Left a runner and filled on that. Was up $1k on the day. Was about to walk.
3. Was going to walk then ib 60 formed, we was at onL, took long, stopped 2x. It pushes lower, then goes.

So walking with the +800 on the day.

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Old March 10th, 2016, 11:58 AM   #116 (permalink)
grappling dummy
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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I need to get my June contracts up as well today.
Days done, will tweak and plan. Review my written plans and notes.

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Old March 10th, 2016, 01:09 PM   #117 (permalink)
grappling dummy
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Pedro may I quote you here as you posted some good points from rBARS150k combine


Pedro40 View Post
Don't feel too bad, at least you were smart enough not to trade full size. Although 3 contracts maybe a bit low now, specially that you are in profits. As long as you keep making money you will eventually reach the profit target, it is just going to cost you a lot, at a minimum of 2 months fees.

If I were you, I would try very hard to reach the profit target by the 2nd month (it is rather doable) and if not, I would switch to a lower and cheaper combine. But if you are close to the target in the last few days, just swing it, there is nothing to lose at that time. I would not pay the 3rd month, that is just way too much. This continuous combine was designed to keep the players in the game.

Now let's suppose you do pass in 2 months, then you still have to deal with the LTP rules. If you felt the 150K Combine was too hard for you, I assume you could ask them to assign you to a lesser Combine's LTP.

Anyhow, you have already paid, so let's make a plan. Since there is about 40 trading days and your profit target is 9K, assuming fairly consistent trading you have to make 1.1K weekly or $220 daily on average. Now I don't know where you are exactly, but let's say if you are at day 25, you should be at 25 x 220=5500 profits. If less you have to raise your size, if more you can chill.

The point with this plan is that every day you should know where you are at with your average profits and step up in size or take it easy depending on the actual number. But this is just general guidance, and if you have better days, push those, and size down on days when the opportunities are not there.

Good luck with it. You might want to start a separate diary and we can try to guide you through it.

I am at DAY8
I had to take 5 days off(family).
I traded 3 of 8 days(in 20day combine).
I plan to trade the next 12 days, if trades set up, which usually they do.

I suspect I may have to go another month. If I do I do. I am willing to pay a full month of TST150k. Note I had a very good coupon for this the current month and could not delay TST start date.

I currently have 8600 to go.
I am trading with small lots. To first build a buffer.
After my buffer of 1000 then 1500 or so I will look for more runners by adding more lots.
7 to 8 lots is the most I currently feel will be my combine max size. My usual size in will be 2 lots. I will enter with 2s. 1 to scalp or scale. 1 to run or be. This can change depending on the set up, but in day to day moves, 2 lots is fine by me. Even if it takes 2 combines.
NOTE also, I go in with 2, then if it shows me I add. If it doesn't show me my signal(s) I kill my trade or scalp or BE.


I do agree with the sentiment that the continuous combine is meant to keep people in. That is GOOD for them. You get auto charged. You have to talk to someone by phone to cancel several days ahead of time.

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Old March 10th, 2016, 05:33 PM   #118 (permalink)
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This roughly is plausible.
Watching the volume between the ES3-16 and ES6-16.

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Old March 11th, 2016, 04:32 AM   #119 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Old March 13th, 2016, 01:42 AM   #120 (permalink)
grappling dummy
Hawaii at the beach
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker/Data: S5
Favorite Futures: ES, fine alcohol and muscle cars
 
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Posts: 398 since Apr 2013
Thanks: 819 given, 287 received


I ended up over trading the rest of Friday, trying to get in on the long, but taking more losses than overall wins.

I will not be able to trade Monday due to scheduling, in general Mondays I tread lightly.
Mondays
I check for a gap and see if the gap attempts to close in both the eth and rth.
If it fails, what are the targets it will try next?

Tuesday, Weds, Thurs I will likely trade what I consider 3 sessions
Europe open
NY open
NY close

Friday
Europe open
NY open

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