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HollywoodTrader's Elliott Wave TST Combine w/ Live Analysis


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HollywoodTrader's Elliott Wave TST Combine w/ Live Analysis

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  #1 (permalink)
 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MotiveWave / TOS
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Goal: To pass the combine in which I will put on all trades solely on my own, real-time Elliott Wave analysis. I will post my live analysis on StockTwits in the $CL_F room or I can be followed under the handle HollywoodTrader.

Purpose: Threefold...
1. To enhance my Elliott Wave analysis by having to post most of it real-time for everyone to see.
2. To become more diligent in my trading by strictly taking the best EW setups -- those being the 3rd Wave, 5th Wave and C wave, with only a few other setups mixed in under the right circumstances.
3. Hopefully display that Elliott Wave is a very effective trading methodology if one is willing to put in the hard work to understand it properly and wholly -- which this process should aid me in doing.

So, here we go! But first, how I got to this point: After passing a combine several months ago, and being taken to the "live prep" level and even being offered to go live, reality set in and I told them I didn't think I was actually ready to go live. The method that I used to pass the combine felt more or less like a gimmick that finally hit a lucky streak and I was in no hurry to bust a live account -- I want to go live once and only once. (My previous result is recorded in this post: ).

Since last passing the combine I have been on quite a journey of finding a methodology that spoke to me and that I enjoyed as well. At first I found Harmonics and spent several months with that, even to the point of going to a "live prep" yet again in which I wasn't able to meet the standards. Then somehow all the stars aligned and I decided to try and tackle Elliott Wave just as a perfect EW Impulse was playing out in Crude and I couldn't believe the accuracy. If this had happened during a Corrective Wave I probably would have thought EW didn't work because Corrective Waves are notoriously tricky and don't need to have any Fibonacci relationships, luckily that wasn't the case. That was only about 3 months ago, so, while all I have been doing is studying EW, it's still not a lot of time under my belt. Anyway, I started posting in StockTwits a little over a month ago (and have become one of the top $CL_F posters in that time) and it has helped tremendously, thus, I thought I would take it to the next level with this journal as well.

So, there it is. I might be taking on more than I can chew because I'm also knees deep in a film project but destiny waits for no man -- or something like that. I wanted to get this journal started over the weekend but just couldn't find the time so I start today with the results of my first day in the comebine:



I will try to answer any questions that people may have but I'm short on time so it might take a day or two to give a proper response.

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 iqgod 
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Hi @HollywoodTrader - looking forward to reading this journal and all the best for your combine!

Elliot Wave has been notorious among price action traders but I hope you may well provide a contrary example!

Great start!

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 HollywoodTrader 
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DAY TWO:

After a nice start yesterday, today I was totally consistent -- consistently stupid. Part of my rules are that I shouldn't trade pre-market unless one of my top setups is triggering (Wave 5 entry preferred). Another rule is, after learning it the hard way, that I shouldn't try to play a triangle before Wave E. So, what did I do? I tried to enter a triangle before wave E in pre-market!!! Long story short, it turned out to not be a triangle and I started off the day down roughly $500.

Regrouping, I decided to take a step back and let the market form a pattern that I could trade profitably. It wasn't long -- although it felt that way -- before I noticed a that we were forming a Terminal Wave C that was fitting nicely within a channel. I have been posting for a couple of days that we are in a correction in which I idenified the A, B and was waiting for the right opportunity to play the C which is always a 5 wave pattern. Well, there it finally was and I posted this chart at the time.



I entered short at point 4 at a price of 103.14 -- it topped at 103.17 -- and would be playing for price to go to 102.64 first, and then finally 102 where I would close the position and get long. I put my order to cover at 102.67, and before I knew it I had covered and was out of the position and in the black up around $160. This is the one move that I should have just waited for but I always try and get cute and make smaller move trades before the big one that I'm expecting comes along -- this is my main hurdle as a trader, I'm constantly outsmarting myself. So, here is the continuation of that chart along with what I was looking to play.




Anyway, I'm please with my reading of the Elliott Wave action today and just wish I had been more patient. I ended the day in the black, after getting back in the red once or twice, and just shut everything down after just creeping into the black again around 10:00am PDT. Even though I was convinced we were going higher, and posted as much, I just didn't want to end the day in the red.

So, my Elliott read is that we could be in the 5th Wave but I believe that we are just in the B Wave of the correction still and we will test today's lows before going higher -- or something like that. Either way, I'll be posting live!


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 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
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As an added note I just realized that a triangle formed on the larger timeframe and is what I should really have been paying attention to more than I was. As many probably know, Elliott Waves are fractal and form waves within waves etc (although people seem to think this happens all the time, but, for example, the extended wave of an impulse pattern DOES NOT need to be fractal or segmented as most people have been told. Anyway, this is a variation of that because it is one pattern forming on one degree -- the A, B, C correction of my last post -- but that is all happening within a larger pattern in a larger degree. Here is the triangle and I have left the white markers of the smaller pattern and the larger triangle is marked in red.



Another step in the right direction; I love this stuff.

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 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
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DAY THREE:

So today another pre-market opportunity presented itself but this time it was my favorite setup -- and the one I have now vowed to be the only one that I will take pre-market. It was less than an hour before the Crude pit open so I don't have as much of a problem with that as well.

Anyway, what the pic shows is that Crude was forming the 5th of a 5th Wave and one can enter at point 4 with a high degree of accuracy and confidence. So much so, that I entered with a couple of contracts at 105.04 and price bottomed at 105.02 before quickly swinging back higher. Not only does Elliott show you the perfect price at which to enter, it also shows the perfect time as the cyan time line shows (although this isn't the exact line because it's on a tick chart but I added it here to roughly display what was showing on my time based chart on which it was plotted). So it is at this intersection of time (5:15am PDT) and price (105.01) that was the ideal entry for this trade, per Elliott Wave rules, and is where I jumped aboard with not a worry in the world as to if the trade was going to go in my favor. Also, the same trade had worked just hours earlier as can be seen further to the left with price bouncing off of the 104.32 time-marker area. Those lines are an Elliott Wave code that I wrote myself and has been absolutely invaluable to my understanding and trading of Elliott. I'm sure it might look like noise but very few of those lines are in-play at any given time -- and since I wrote the code I know which ones -- and the solid white line that price bounces off just before the 104.32 price-marker is Elliott Wave working to the tick -- which gave me even further confidence in the later move that I traded.



Lastly, Elliott also offers targets and I scaled out of the position with a nice profit and the day had just barely started. I took a few more trades that I didn't document and were mostly scratch trades anyway. So, after an off day yesterday, I have gotten things back on track.



HollywoodTrader

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 HollywoodTrader 
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Since I got smoked today, because I was being stupid and creating trades that didn't exist, I thought I would post an example of how Elliott is misinterpreted, even by "professionals". I'll try and make it quick and un-rant-ish. So, in my twitter feed I noticed an Elliott Wave prediction from a company fishing for clients. Here is their "interpretation:"



As you can see they have a very large Wave 1 and a very sharp Wave 2 correction. The problem is, and many people get this wrong, Wave 1 should take less time to form than Wave 2. This is because Wave 1 is Impulsive in nature -- quick and fast -- and a Wave 2 is Corrective -- slower and more wandering -- and one can clearly tell that Wave 1 here takes much more time to form than Wave 2 does. Here is their interpretation on my charts with all the same numbering:



So, while they have almost everything correct in their Wave 3, all of the ratios for future reactions are based off of having the correct Wave 1 and Wave 2. If you don't you are in for trouble down the road and there is evidence that this is wrong because there are no reactions beyond Wave 2, in Wave 3, at critical fibonacci levels derived form the Wave 1,2 relationship. So, one must make sure that Wave 2 takes as long or longer to form than Wave 1 to be a valid count.

It is kind of tricky, although it shouldn't be for a professional looking to have people pay for his service, but here is how I have it and I believe to be the correct count because of the unmistakable reactions at critical fibonacci levels derived from the correct Wave 1 and Wave 2. Here it must be noted that Wave 1 and Wave 2 do not have to stop and start at the same point. There can be a correction inbetween and in this example there is. It's an a,b,c correction which has Wave 1 ending much earlier and not as high. The correct high point is a Wave b that has corrected higher than the end of Wave 1. This also allows Wave 2 to complete way after the required equity or 100% in time mark that it would need to to be a valid count. Here is how I have it:



So this is just one reason that Elliott has a bad wrap. Even the pros get it wrong because they either haven't taken the time to learn it properly or are just aren't through in their evaluation.

I replied to their tweet about this issue but didn't hear back.

HollywoodTrader

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 HollywoodTrader 
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DAY FOUR:

First lets get the pain out of the way. I got crushed today, but, not because of Elliott but because I am the all time greatest trade inventor. I can create a trade where there isn't one at a moments notice -- everyone else is just second best. It's sad because that's even written down in my trading rules: "Don't create trades that aren't there!" I was also victim to trying to trade several Elliott Triangles that just didn't pan out and this is something that I shouldn't be doing because Triangles are the last piece that I really need to learn, and I know this. So here are the results:



There was also the matter that I was bitter at missing the big overnight move which I was expecting but wanted to be diligent and not trade overnight because that is by far the time that I have the worst results. So I had the perfect confluence of mistakes: 1. trading patterns that are currently my weak point and 2. bitterness over missing a move; not a good combination. Or let me amend that, not a good combination for an amateur, a professional would realize that the market is an endless steam of opportunity and start searching for his next high probability trade -- I'm working on it!

Here is the chart of the sell-off that started overnight and my target zone just as I had it. For the record the backend of my target zone had a time stamp of 6:02am PDT, so I was sure that the market would wait for the open to sell-off and that is what I was going to wait for, it didn't pan-out that way. But the good news it that my Elliott analysis seems spot on and that's what really matters at this point.



Finally, I have really been paying much more attention to my analysis now that I am sharing it here and already this exercise has proven to be much more valuable than I thought it was going to be. I can't wait to see what the following weeks have to offer.

HollywoodTrader

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 HollywoodTrader 
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Here's the updated and unmanipulated progess update from my prediction in chart 3 from post #7 yesterday. I just wish I had traded this way but that's another story. Yesterdays chart first:




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 HollywoodTrader 
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DAY FIVE:

Got crushed again today but at least this time I felt as though I was doing the right thing. I was fairly patient in playing an emerging triangle -- although I have since found a method to be even more patient with them and let them come to me instead of trying to guess where and when they are going to break. Then later I thought I was into a runner and started campaigning -- added to the position -- but I read the move wrong at went from being up about $1500 to being all the way down. I was just so convinced that I was right that I wasn't willing to get out of the position for fear that the moment I did it would go my way. Anyway, here are the results and I'll post a chart and get more into detail about how thing went down.



So, here is how I have the action labeled for the past couple of days since we started selling off. Friday starts with at the end of the triangle in which Wave-E also created a Triangle. I would later come to learn, after everything didn't work out, that when that happens it usually creates an Unlimited Triangle where price can go much farther than the 23.6%-max of the longest leg that a normal Limiting Triangle would go. At first it did go the expected 23.6% and right into the short zone that I was waiting for it but the first mistake that I made, since it was the first time that I have traded it, was to only get one position on and then start adding once it had gone way too far in my bias. I should have loaded up early and started pealing contracts off which is my usual modus operandi. But it was at that point that I was convinced that we were in a new Impulse leg down and I had a target around 103.50 or something. Anyway, what it looks I ran into was the most rare: Terminal Zigzag, that looks very much like an Impulse pattern at first and is most often mistaken for an Impulse pattern. And not only that, I had loaded up so that I had a go-for-broke mentality because if it had worked in my favor I would have been in Funded Trader territory after only a week. So, here is what it all looked like:



Anyway, I learned a ton this first week and by far learned the most during my losing days. I have really been studying this stuff day-and-night for well over a month but this exercise has really turned it up a notch.

HollywoodTrader

Oh, and I have to work Comic Con this week so I'm not sure if I will get any trading days in, so, if you don't hear from me that's what's up.

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Pedro40
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Can you backtest your original system what you used when you passed the LTP, how it would have done in the last few days? I think you should have just stuck to it, why change on a winning strategy???

Or why not trade both together? Then you would have an objective answer which one is better....

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 HollywoodTrader 
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Pedro40 View Post
Can you backtest your original system what you used when you passed the LTP, how it would have done in the last few days? I think you should have just stuck to it, why change on a winning strategy???

Or why not trade both together? Then you would have an objective answer which one is better....

Hey Pedro, no I can't backtest my original system because I'm not sure it was even a system. Someone asked the same exact question about why I would switch a winning strategy somewhere in the last thread and I think I gave quite a lengthy answer but I forget what I said so I'll just tell you what I'm thinking as of now, it might be different, it might be the same.

For me, and I think I expressed this in the first post of this thread, the previous system(S) that I was using seemed to be based more on luck combined with great order management that got me over the top. It was all about just keeping in the game until I could hit a few big ones that would get me over the top. Now, why that might sound appealing to some people it just didn't fit my personality, I wasn't enjoying it. I didn't decide to put my 15 year film career in jeopardy to do something that I'm not going to enjoy. Also, it was a winning strategy for those few weeks, it didn't pass many more combines than it passed. It isn't as though that was the first combine and ltp and it worked right out of the gate. It's just a system that, and I think I stated this in the first post of this thread, that just got on a lucky streak and I was really on point with my order management. A good baseball analogy would be that you have hitters with a .200 batting average that go on hot streaks every now and then and seem like they can't be gotten out for stretches of 10 or more days. That doesn't mean that suddenly what they are doing is going to hold up over time, eventually they are going to revert back to the mean. My previous system was that .200 hitter that got on a streak and when it came time to get called up to the big leagues I think I was smart enough to realize this and let them know as much. Often, minor leaguers that are brought up the the big leagues have their development stunted because they just weren't ready. They haven't developed a sound base for which to be successful with over the long haul and I know for a fact, without question, that that's the situation I was in.

Now, for the second part of the answer. I'm changing because I know for a fact that I have found the system for me. I can't tell you enough, given it's learned properly, how effective Elliott Wave can be. Furthermore, I enjoy it to no end, as well. It's also allowed me to code my own TOS software that tells me exactly what I want to know about Elliott Wave when I need to know it and this has shortened my learning curve immensely. You really have to understand a theory and mull it over in your mind to be able to put it into code. I know without question that Elliott Wave is what I have been looking for all this time and is the answer to be being a profitable trader over the long haul. It's a ton of work but well worth it and I have never been averse to doing hard work for long term benefits. I worked on writing screenplays for well over 10 years before I saw anything I had written on TV but once I saw it and my family did as well I knew all the years of late nights and rejection were well worth it. The same can be said for calling "Action" for the first time. All those years of fetching coffee and 16 hour days were well worth it and I'd do it all over again. So basically what I'm saying is that I know hard work pays off in the long run and one has to be a realist as well. I knew I had a system that had just gotten lucky and hiding this fact from myself wouldn't have gotten me anywhere in the long run, but, in doing combines etc., one is gaining valuable experience even if it might not be the immediate means to an end.

So, all in all, I don't need an objective answer to let me know which is the better system, I know the answer instinctively from being on this 4 year trading journey. I can say with no reservations that I know for a fact that Elliott Wave is the better system and is also the system for me, I've finally found what I have been looking for. Now, do I think it's going to pass the first combine that I try it with... hell no. In fact my first objective didn't first say "To pass the combine..." it said "To achieve rollover..." but I thought too many people would say "Why would you do the combine if you weren't trying to pass etc..." and if they don't know the answer I would never be able to explain it, so to avoid having to answer those questions I just put "to pass..." I fully expect that I'll have to do numerous combines applying the Elliott Wave methodology and that's fine, the market isn't going anywhere and neither am I, and in the meantime I'm building a foundation for success.

Thank you, Pedro, for asking the question and giving me a chance to answer your, and hopefully other people's questions as well.

HollywoodTrader

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Pedro40
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Thanks for the lengthy answer. I don't want to debate you, just would like to not:

Objective >>> Instinctive

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 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
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Pedro40 View Post
Thanks for the lengthy answer. I don't want to debate you, just would like to not:

Objective >>> Instinctive

Hopefully, you didn't interpret my answer as combative and looking for a debate; I was just trying to be forthright and truthful in what I'm aiming to do and how I'm going about it. It got kind of lengthy because I was tying to answer questions that might be out there but not asked etc., and your question opened the door to me being able to do that. Also, I'm not sure what there would be to debate about anyway? I am very curious about your last part though: "...just would like to not: Objective>>>Instinctive." Could you please go into more detail? Are you saying I could be letting my instincts get in the way of having an objective opinion? I don't want to assume, because you know what that does, so hopefully you will get back to me and let me know your intention.

Thx,

HollywoodTrader

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Pedro40
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I meant that the objective results so far have been showing that your first system was the good one, even though you think instinctively that this latest (although losing) system is the winner.

That's why a parallel trading of both systems should have been good for comparison, for real objectivity...

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 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
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Pedro40 View Post
I meant that the objective results so far have been showing that your first system was the good one, even though you think instinctively that this latest (although losing) system is the winner.

That's why a parallel trading of both systems should have been good for comparison, for real objectivity...

Pedro, with all due respect I'm having a hard time taking this reply seriously. Either your not reading my replies or understanding them properly. I tried to get across that I deemed the first system as not being good one. Passing one combine does not make a system good. Furthermore, it didn't fit my personality, to be successful you have to invent and trade a system that fits you personality -- have you read any of the "Market Wizard" books?

Secondly, you can't seriously be calling the latest system a loser? Do you really judge systems that you might vet after just a few days? Elliott Wave has been around for almost 100 years and people swear by it, but I'm down just a few hundred bucks -- most of which is my fault has nothing to do with EW, as I explained -- and you think I should give up and call Elliott Wave a loser. I guess I just might use a bit more leeway than you in giving a system a proper trial run. An analogy would be, if you wanted to use become a fisherman but didn't know what to use, professionals tell you to use worms. Worms? Okay, I'll try it. You so take your worms go out and cast 6 or 7 times but don't get a bite so you give up -- because worms don't work right? What were those professionals taking about? I think I'm going to give Elliott Wave just a wee bit more time than 6 or 7 days before I make by decision.

Wish I could chat more but I'm prepping for Comic Con. My Combine update is that I have just quickly traded a few days before going to work and they were both small winning days -- nothing significant -- and hopefully I can post those results later tonight.

HollywoodTrader

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 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
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Here are days 6 and 7. Since I'm still in the old combine format they are essentially free trading days so trying to hit one or two small trades doesn't cost me an important day of trading. I saw a few opportunities so I took them and one would have been more lucrative but I closed it out before going to work. I think most importantly it gives me a couple of winning days that go to my winning day % which helps achieve rollover. I hadn't planned on working Comic Con but I got an offer I just couldn't refuse otherwise, I would have put off starting my combine until next week, but cest la vie.



HollywoodTrader

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 HollywoodTrader 
San Diego
 
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I've titled this last post of this first Elliott Wave combine attempt: "The Grass is Always Greener," because it seems to me, and I feel very fortunate about this, that the grass is always greener on my side. That is, when I'm trading I dread taking a film job and when I'm on set I dread going back to the daily grind of trading. I absolutely love both professions but they each have their drawbacks. "The Biz" has long hours, my average day is about 14 hours, but trading, while the hours can -- and I stress can -- be fewer, it has yet to prove profitable. Anyway, this latest combine was interrupted by Comic Con and then a number of meetings in LA the week after that. So, while not an excuse for my poor performance, what started out as a very positive experiment lost momentum in the end as did my performance. All in all, I am very encouraged by my progress with Elliott Wave but think that I may have tried to rely on it too soon. I'm going to spend another month working on my identification of the waves, hopefully uninterrupted by a film gig, and then go for another combine. The good thing about working in the biz is that you can set it up so that you are working for only about half of the year and the other half is reserved for personal endeavors -- guess what personal endeavor is.

The final results: (a week late but I just got home).



HollywoodTrader

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 HollywoodTrader 
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So, since I last posted in this thread about a year ago, I have dedicated myself to learning Elliott Wave inside and out and to use it and only it in my trading. It was a much more difficult endeavor than I even imagined -- just like daytrading itself turned out to be -- but I stuck with it; using no indicators or any of my previous methods. I have done numerous combines but have been unable to pass them, like I had in the past, but now recently, suddenly, I have felt locked in with the markets and their possible future movements unlike ever before. And this has all happened at just the right time because TopStep Trader had a week long Trading Challenge with cash prizes and I was in the top 10 leader-board everyday -- only below 3rd place for one day -- and was able to pull out the victory in the end! I had a gut feeling that Elliott Wave was the trading methodology for me and I'm very pleased that I made the decision to abandon the methodology that had passed 2 combines and dedicate all of the past year to learning Elliott Wave; hopefully this is just the beginning.

HollywoodTrader (Moviemkr in TST)

The challenge started on Mon Aug. 4th until Fri Aug. 8th and the starting account size was $150,000; so I booked a little over $32,000 for the week. You could trade up to 15 contracts at a time in their permissible product list.


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 bobwest 
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HollywoodTrader View Post
So, since I last posted in this thread about a year ago, I have dedicated myself to learning Elliott Wave inside and out and to use it and only it in my trading. It was a much more difficult endeavor than I even imagined -- just like daytrading itself turned out to be -- but I stuck with it; using no indicators or any of my previous methods. I have done numerous combines but have been unable to pass them, like I had in the past, but now recently, suddenly, I have felt locked in with the markets and their possible future movements unlike ever before. And this has all happened at just the right time because TopStep Trader had a week long Trading Challenge with cash prizes and I was in the top 10 leader-board everyday -- only below 3rd place for one day -- and was able to pull out the victory in the end! I had a gut feeling that Elliott Wave was the trading methodology for me and I'm very pleased that I made the decision to abandon the methodology that had passed 2 combines and dedicate all of the past year to learning Elliott Wave; hopefully this is just the beginning.

HollywoodTrader (Moviemkr in TST)

The challenge started on Mon Aug. 4th until Fri Aug. 8th and the starting account size was $150,000; so I booked a little over $32,000 for the week. You could trade up to 15 contracts at a time in their permissible product list.


Good to see you posting again.

I wondered who that guy was who made that big total. Now we know.....

Congratulations.

Bob.

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 HollywoodTrader 
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bobwest View Post
Good to see you posting again.

I wondered who that guy was who made that big total. Now we know.....

Congratulations.

Bob.

Thanks, Bob. And the thing is I made most of that trading the ES and actually lost about $3000 or so in Crude. My high was well over $185,000 at one point but then I got cute and got hurt.

Not sure I'll ever be a very active poster but I could envision sharing my views on the current Elliott Wave count in relation to the ES in the future. Every now and then I post setups in StockTwits and Twitter under my handle @HollywoodTrader and was particularly active over the past two weeks because I felt confident in the sell-off and then a few other setups after that.

Thanks,

HollywoodTrader

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 iqgod 
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bobwest View Post
Good to see you posting again.

I wondered who that guy was who made that big total. Now we know.....

Congratulations.

Bob.


I kinda was predicting that he will win. I think I was also the first one to congratulate him on Squawk Radio before the results were announced.

Guess I should join the TST scouting team!

P.S.: I got my account up to $162,000 - it felt rather like winning a $150,000 combine with the original profit target! I was participating for fun, so was stressfree!

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 bobwest 
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HollywoodTrader View Post
Thanks, Bob. And the thing is I made most of that trading the ES and actually lost about $3000 or so in Crude. My high was well over $185,000 at one point but then I got cute and got hurt.

Not sure I'll ever be a very active poster but I could envision sharing my views on the current Elliott Wave count in relation to the ES in the future. Every now and then I post setups in StockTwits and Twitter under my handle @HollywoodTrader and was particularly active over the past two weeks because I felt confident in the sell-off and then a few other setups after that.

Thanks,

HollywoodTrader

I understand the Elliott wave as a theoretical proposition, and I usually can see plausible wave counts after the fact, but I have never been able to make it work on a real-time basis. I always seem to find too many possibilities to know which one to go with ahead of time. (I also am wrong a lot. )

There may be others in the same boat. There's certainly no one posting consistently on Elliott at the present time on futures.io (formerly BMT). While I would understand not wanting to be an active poster, I think it would be cool if you did, and encourage you to do so. -- Not necessarily trades if you don't want to, but some kind of wave count posts for those who are interested but unsuccessful at it.

Just a thought, you decide what you want to do, of course.

Bob.

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 HollywoodTrader 
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I understand the Elliott wave as a theoretical proposition, and I usually can see plausible wave counts after the fact, but I have never been able to make it work on a real-time basis. I always seem to find too many possibilities to know which one to go with ahead of time. (I also am wrong a lot. )

There may be others in the same boat. There's certainly no one posting consistently on Elliott at the present time on futures.io (formerly BMT). While I would understand not wanting to be an active poster, I think it would be cool if you did, and encourage you to do so. -- Not necessarily trades if you don't want to, but some kind of wave count posts for those who are interested but unsuccessful at it.

Just a thought, you decide what you want to do, of course.

Bob.

Okay, just for fun, today, I will post what I'm looking to play out in the next few days. I believe the ES is in Wave 4 which should correct to around 1928.5 to 1927 (but could go as low as 1922.5) and then Wave 5 should reach about 1952 before we correct down to about 1920 before we go to new highs sometime next week in a larger degree Wave 3. Anyway, I got in long at 1928.75 and will look to ride it all the way up to 1949.75 before exiting and then possibly looking for short term shorts.

Then again, I could be totally wrong.

HollywoodTrader


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 HollywoodTrader 
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So, here is the updated Elliott count. I should have known that the Wave 4 correction in the previous post wasn't quite over yet because Wave 4 had to be complex in relation to Wave 2 to satisfy the Rule of Alternation. I realized this when price was faltering coming out of point-w and took quick profits on my long because it seemed to me that there was a good chance we were in an x-wave and lower prices were to come -- but that we should hold the 1922.5 as mention above. I targeted 1924.75 because it is the 1.618 of Wave 2 and is right smack in the middle of the Wave 3 38.2 and 50% retracements. Price did indeed find support right in that zone and now I strongly suspect that the Wave 4 correction is over and we are in Wave 5 with a rough target of ~1947.25-1955.25. I think there is even a chance we could be in a gap-and-go / professional gap tomorrow and make a run straight for the target zone. After we reach the target we should again correct to about the ~1920 area and then run to new highs in a larger degree Wave 3 as mention earlier.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

HollywoodTrader


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 HollywoodTrader 
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So, here is the updated Elliott count. I should have known that the Wave 4 correction in the previous post wasn't quite over yet because Wave 4 had to be complex in relation to Wave 2 to satisfy the Rule of Alternation. I realized this when price was faltering coming out of point-w and took quick profits on my long because it seemed to me that there was a good chance we were in an x-wave and lower prices were to come -- but that we should hold the 1922.5 as mention above. I targeted 1924.75 because it is the 1.618 of Wave 2 and is right smack in the middle of the Wave 3 38.2 and 50% retracements. Price did indeed find support right in that zone and now I strongly suspect that the Wave 4 correction is over and we are in Wave 5 with a rough target of ~1947.25-1955.25. I think there is even a chance we could be in a gap-and-go / professional gap tomorrow and make a run straight for the target zone. After we reach the target we should again correct to about the ~1920 area and then run to new highs in a larger degree Wave 3 as mention earlier.

I guess you're the only one interested in this stuff, Bob. Anyway, as I'm sure you noticed, most of what I predicted -- or should I say Elliott Wave predicted -- came to be in the past couple of days. The gap-and-go as quoted above was right on the money, no pun intended, and that was predicted at yesterday's close before there was even a gap-to-go. Anyway, let's move on to tomorrow. I think this bullish move ends at ~1947-1947.50 and it's at this point that we retrace to ~1920, maybe deeper. We could have a bit of a throw-over and go a bit higher than 1947 but I wouldn't expect it to be very much. Too bad more people aren't interested in this stuff because a pretty penny could have been made over the past couple of days. I'm going short at 1947 although I will admit it is a risky play so I will be ready to cover if something doesn't feel right. This is probably my last post of this thread but I hope you enjoyed it Bob and I'm glad I was able to display Elliott Wave's predictive powers even if it was only for a couple of days.

HollywoodTrader


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 bobwest 
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HollywoodTrader View Post
I guess you're the only one interested in this stuff, Bob. Anyway, as I'm sure you noticed, most of what I predicted -- or should I say Elliott Wave predicted -- came to be in the past couple of days. The gap-and-go as quoted above was right on the money, no pun intended, and that was predicted at yesterday's close before there was even a gap-to-go. Anyway, let's move on to tomorrow. I think this bullish move ends at ~1947-1947.50 and it's at this point that we retrace to ~1920, maybe deeper. We could have a bit of a throw-over and go a bit higher than 1947 but I wouldn't expect it to be very much. Too bad more people aren't interested in this stuff because a pretty penny could have been made over the past couple of days. I'm going short at 1947 although I will admit it is a risky play so I will be ready to cover if something doesn't feel right. This is probably my last post of this thread but I hope you enjoyed it Bob and I'm glad I was able to display Elliott Wave's predictive powers even if it was only for a couple of days.

HollywoodTrader


Well, Elliott Wave has always been something with a limited appeal. I did like your posts, and I'm glad there was a chance at least to have some Elliott thoughts posted.

Good luck going forward, and congrats again on doing well in the competition.

Take care.

Bob.

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 baywolf 
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Pulling up a seat.

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 ratfink 
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HollywoodTrader View Post
I guess you're the only one interested in this stuff, Bob.

Nope.

Some of us have used/studied/followed/laughed/cried with it for many years. When it's good, it's really very good, and when it isn't, well let's just leave it in the overcrowded rear view mirror camp. You seem to have found a way of using it successfully and I congratulate you on that and on your excellent result with TST - Cheers!

Travel Well
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Looking at your ES post on Aug 14th the 1h doji bar where you entered indicates strength to the downside also, coming from fibs and vsa and wyckoff and support/resistance and most everything else you care to think of I'm noticing confluences with Elliot wave when 'mapping' a chart. Where is the best place to pick up EW rudiments? For my part the way you present your thread is excellent, the lead up and results really help to get a grasp of your thinking......win or lose. Are you posting anywhere now?
regards and thanks,
tottenham

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