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HollywoodTrader's Elliott Wave TST Combine w/ Live Analysis
Thanks, Bob. And the thing is I made most of that trading the ES and actually lost about $3000 or so in Crude. My high was well over $185,000 at one point but then I got cute and got hurt.
Not sure I'll ever be a very active poster but I could envision sharing my views on the current Elliott Wave count in relation to the ES in the future. Every now and then I post setups in StockTwits and Twitter under my handle @HollywoodTrader and was particularly active over the past two weeks because I felt confident in the sell-off and then a few other setups after that.
I kinda was predicting that he will win. I think I was also the first one to congratulate him on Squawk Radio before the results were announced.
Guess I should join the TST scouting team!
P.S.: I got my account up to $162,000 - it felt rather like winning a $150,000 combine with the original profit target! I was participating for fun, so was stressfree!
I understand the Elliott wave as a theoretical proposition, and I usually can see plausible wave counts after the fact, but I have never been able to make it work on a real-time basis. I always seem to find too many possibilities to know which one to go with ahead of time. (I also am wrong a lot. )
There may be others in the same boat. There's certainly no one posting consistently on Elliott at the present time on futures.io (formerly BMT). While I would understand not wanting to be an active poster, I think it would be cool if you did, and encourage you to do so. -- Not necessarily trades if you don't want to, but some kind of wave count posts for those who are interested but unsuccessful at it.
Just a thought, you decide what you want to do, of course.
Okay, just for fun, today, I will post what I'm looking to play out in the next few days. I believe the ES is in Wave 4 which should correct to around 1928.5 to 1927 (but could go as low as 1922.5) and then Wave 5 should reach about 1952 before we correct down to about 1920 before we go to new highs sometime next week in a larger degree Wave 3. Anyway, I got in long at 1928.75 and will look to ride it all the way up to 1949.75 before exiting and then possibly looking for short term shorts.
So, here is the updated Elliott count. I should have known that the Wave 4 correction in the previous post wasn't quite over yet because Wave 4 had to be complex in relation to Wave 2 to satisfy the Rule of Alternation. I realized this when price was faltering coming out of point-w and took quick profits on my long because it seemed to me that there was a good chance we were in an x-wave and lower prices were to come -- but that we should hold the 1922.5 as mention above. I targeted 1924.75 because it is the 1.618 of Wave 2 and is right smack in the middle of the Wave 3 38.2 and 50% retracements. Price did indeed find support right in that zone and now I strongly suspect that the Wave 4 correction is over and we are in Wave 5 with a rough target of ~1947.25-1955.25. I think there is even a chance we could be in a gap-and-go / professional gap tomorrow and make a run straight for the target zone. After we reach the target we should again correct to about the ~1920 area and then run to new highs in a larger degree Wave 3 as mention earlier.
I guess you're the only one interested in this stuff, Bob. Anyway, as I'm sure you noticed, most of what I predicted -- or should I say Elliott Wave predicted -- came to be in the past couple of days. The gap-and-go as quoted above was right on the money, no pun intended, and that was predicted at yesterday's close before there was even a gap-to-go. Anyway, let's move on to tomorrow. I think this bullish move ends at ~1947-1947.50 and it's at this point that we retrace to ~1920, maybe deeper. We could have a bit of a throw-over and go a bit higher than 1947 but I wouldn't expect it to be very much. Too bad more people aren't interested in this stuff because a pretty penny could have been made over the past couple of days. I'm going short at 1947 although I will admit it is a risky play so I will be ready to cover if something doesn't feel right. This is probably my last post of this thread but I hope you enjoyed it Bob and I'm glad I was able to display Elliott Wave's predictive powers even if it was only for a couple of days.
Well, Elliott Wave has always been something with a limited appeal. I did like your posts, and I'm glad there was a chance at least to have some Elliott thoughts posted.
Good luck going forward, and congrats again on doing well in the competition.
Some of us have used/studied/followed/laughed/cried with it for many years. When it's good, it's really very good, and when it isn't, well let's just leave it in the overcrowded rear view mirror camp. You seem to have found a way of using it successfully and I congratulate you on that and on your excellent result with TST - Cheers!
Looking at your ES post on Aug 14th the 1h doji bar where you entered indicates strength to the downside also, coming from fibs and vsa and wyckoff and support/resistance and most everything else you care to think of I'm noticing confluences with Elliot wave when 'mapping' a chart. Where is the best place to pick up EW rudiments? For my part the way you present your thread is excellent, the lead up and results really help to get a grasp of your thinking......win or lose. Are you posting anywhere now?
regards and thanks,
tottenham
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