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HollywoodTrader's Elliott Wave TST Combine w/ Live Analysis
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HollywoodTrader's Elliott Wave TST Combine w/ Live Analysis

  #11 (permalink)
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Can you backtest your original system what you used when you passed the LTP, how it would have done in the last few days? I think you should have just stuck to it, why change on a winning strategy???

Or why not trade both together? Then you would have an objective answer which one is better....

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  #12 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
Can you backtest your original system what you used when you passed the LTP, how it would have done in the last few days? I think you should have just stuck to it, why change on a winning strategy???

Or why not trade both together? Then you would have an objective answer which one is better....

Hey Pedro, no I can't backtest my original system because I'm not sure it was even a system. Someone asked the same exact question about why I would switch a winning strategy somewhere in the last thread and I think I gave quite a lengthy answer but I forget what I said so I'll just tell you what I'm thinking as of now, it might be different, it might be the same.

For me, and I think I expressed this in the first post of this thread, the previous system(S) that I was using seemed to be based more on luck combined with great order management that got me over the top. It was all about just keeping in the game until I could hit a few big ones that would get me over the top. Now, why that might sound appealing to some people it just didn't fit my personality, I wasn't enjoying it. I didn't decide to put my 15 year film career in jeopardy to do something that I'm not going to enjoy. Also, it was a winning strategy for those few weeks, it didn't pass many more combines than it passed. It isn't as though that was the first combine and ltp and it worked right out of the gate. It's just a system that, and I think I stated this in the first post of this thread, that just got on a lucky streak and I was really on point with my order management. A good baseball analogy would be that you have hitters with a .200 batting average that go on hot streaks every now and then and seem like they can't be gotten out for stretches of 10 or more days. That doesn't mean that suddenly what they are doing is going to hold up over time, eventually they are going to revert back to the mean. My previous system was that .200 hitter that got on a streak and when it came time to get called up to the big leagues I think I was smart enough to realize this and let them know as much. Often, minor leaguers that are brought up the the big leagues have their development stunted because they just weren't ready. They haven't developed a sound base for which to be successful with over the long haul and I know for a fact, without question, that that's the situation I was in.

Now, for the second part of the answer. I'm changing because I know for a fact that I have found the system for me. I can't tell you enough, given it's learned properly, how effective Elliott Wave can be. Furthermore, I enjoy it to no end, as well. It's also allowed me to code my own TOS software that tells me exactly what I want to know about Elliott Wave when I need to know it and this has shortened my learning curve immensely. You really have to understand a theory and mull it over in your mind to be able to put it into code. I know without question that Elliott Wave is what I have been looking for all this time and is the answer to be being a profitable trader over the long haul. It's a ton of work but well worth it and I have never been averse to doing hard work for long term benefits. I worked on writing screenplays for well over 10 years before I saw anything I had written on TV but once I saw it and my family did as well I knew all the years of late nights and rejection were well worth it. The same can be said for calling "Action" for the first time. All those years of fetching coffee and 16 hour days were well worth it and I'd do it all over again. So basically what I'm saying is that I know hard work pays off in the long run and one has to be a realist as well. I knew I had a system that had just gotten lucky and hiding this fact from myself wouldn't have gotten me anywhere in the long run, but, in doing combines etc., one is gaining valuable experience even if it might not be the immediate means to an end.

So, all in all, I don't need an objective answer to let me know which is the better system, I know the answer instinctively from being on this 4 year trading journey. I can say with no reservations that I know for a fact that Elliott Wave is the better system and is also the system for me, I've finally found what I have been looking for. Now, do I think it's going to pass the first combine that I try it with... hell no. In fact my first objective didn't first say "To pass the combine..." it said "To achieve rollover..." but I thought too many people would say "Why would you do the combine if you weren't trying to pass etc..." and if they don't know the answer I would never be able to explain it, so to avoid having to answer those questions I just put "to pass..." I fully expect that I'll have to do numerous combines applying the Elliott Wave methodology and that's fine, the market isn't going anywhere and neither am I, and in the meantime I'm building a foundation for success.

Thank you, Pedro, for asking the question and giving me a chance to answer your, and hopefully other people's questions as well.

HollywoodTrader

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  #13 (permalink)
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Thanks for the lengthy answer. I don't want to debate you, just would like to not:

Objective >>> Instinctive

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  #14 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
Thanks for the lengthy answer. I don't want to debate you, just would like to not:

Objective >>> Instinctive

Hopefully, you didn't interpret my answer as combative and looking for a debate; I was just trying to be forthright and truthful in what I'm aiming to do and how I'm going about it. It got kind of lengthy because I was tying to answer questions that might be out there but not asked etc., and your question opened the door to me being able to do that. Also, I'm not sure what there would be to debate about anyway? I am very curious about your last part though: "...just would like to not: Objective>>>Instinctive." Could you please go into more detail? Are you saying I could be letting my instincts get in the way of having an objective opinion? I don't want to assume, because you know what that does, so hopefully you will get back to me and let me know your intention.

Thx,

HollywoodTrader

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  #15 (permalink)
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I meant that the objective results so far have been showing that your first system was the good one, even though you think instinctively that this latest (although losing) system is the winner.

That's why a parallel trading of both systems should have been good for comparison, for real objectivity...

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  #16 (permalink)
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Pedro40 View Post
I meant that the objective results so far have been showing that your first system was the good one, even though you think instinctively that this latest (although losing) system is the winner.

That's why a parallel trading of both systems should have been good for comparison, for real objectivity...

Pedro, with all due respect I'm having a hard time taking this reply seriously. Either your not reading my replies or understanding them properly. I tried to get across that I deemed the first system as not being good one. Passing one combine does not make a system good. Furthermore, it didn't fit my personality, to be successful you have to invent and trade a system that fits you personality -- have you read any of the "Market Wizard" books?

Secondly, you can't seriously be calling the latest system a loser? Do you really judge systems that you might vet after just a few days? Elliott Wave has been around for almost 100 years and people swear by it, but I'm down just a few hundred bucks -- most of which is my fault has nothing to do with EW, as I explained -- and you think I should give up and call Elliott Wave a loser. I guess I just might use a bit more leeway than you in giving a system a proper trial run. An analogy would be, if you wanted to use become a fisherman but didn't know what to use, professionals tell you to use worms. Worms? Okay, I'll try it. You so take your worms go out and cast 6 or 7 times but don't get a bite so you give up -- because worms don't work right? What were those professionals taking about? I think I'm going to give Elliott Wave just a wee bit more time than 6 or 7 days before I make by decision.

Wish I could chat more but I'm prepping for Comic Con. My Combine update is that I have just quickly traded a few days before going to work and they were both small winning days -- nothing significant -- and hopefully I can post those results later tonight.

HollywoodTrader

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Here are days 6 and 7. Since I'm still in the old combine format they are essentially free trading days so trying to hit one or two small trades doesn't cost me an important day of trading. I saw a few opportunities so I took them and one would have been more lucrative but I closed it out before going to work. I think most importantly it gives me a couple of winning days that go to my winning day % which helps achieve rollover. I hadn't planned on working Comic Con but I got an offer I just couldn't refuse otherwise, I would have put off starting my combine until next week, but cest la vie.

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HollywoodTrader

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The Grass is Always Greener...

I've titled this last post of this first Elliott Wave combine attempt: "The Grass is Always Greener," because it seems to me, and I feel very fortunate about this, that the grass is always greener on my side. That is, when I'm trading I dread taking a film job and when I'm on set I dread going back to the daily grind of trading. I absolutely love both professions but they each have their drawbacks. "The Biz" has long hours, my average day is about 14 hours, but trading, while the hours can -- and I stress can -- be fewer, it has yet to prove profitable. Anyway, this latest combine was interrupted by Comic Con and then a number of meetings in LA the week after that. So, while not an excuse for my poor performance, what started out as a very positive experiment lost momentum in the end as did my performance. All in all, I am very encouraged by my progress with Elliott Wave but think that I may have tried to rely on it too soon. I'm going to spend another month working on my identification of the waves, hopefully uninterrupted by a film gig, and then go for another combine. The good thing about working in the biz is that you can set it up so that you are working for only about half of the year and the other half is reserved for personal endeavors -- guess what personal endeavor is.

The final results: (a week late but I just got home).

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My transition and dedication is starting to bear fruit!

So, since I last posted in this thread about a year ago, I have dedicated myself to learning Elliott Wave inside and out and to use it and only it in my trading. It was a much more difficult endeavor than I even imagined -- just like daytrading itself turned out to be -- but I stuck with it; using no indicators or any of my previous methods. I have done numerous combines but have been unable to pass them, like I had in the past, but now recently, suddenly, I have felt locked in with the markets and their possible future movements unlike ever before. And this has all happened at just the right time because TopStep Trader had a week long Trading Challenge with cash prizes and I was in the top 10 leader-board everyday -- only below 3rd place for one day -- and was able to pull out the victory in the end! I had a gut feeling that Elliott Wave was the trading methodology for me and I'm very pleased that I made the decision to abandon the methodology that had passed 2 combines and dedicate all of the past year to learning Elliott Wave; hopefully this is just the beginning.

HollywoodTrader (Moviemkr in TST)

The challenge started on Mon Aug. 4th until Fri Aug. 8th and the starting account size was $150,000; so I booked a little over $32,000 for the week. You could trade up to 15 contracts at a time in their permissible product list.

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HollywoodTrader View Post
So, since I last posted in this thread about a year ago, I have dedicated myself to learning Elliott Wave inside and out and to use it and only it in my trading. It was a much more difficult endeavor than I even imagined -- just like daytrading itself turned out to be -- but I stuck with it; using no indicators or any of my previous methods. I have done numerous combines but have been unable to pass them, like I had in the past, but now recently, suddenly, I have felt locked in with the markets and their possible future movements unlike ever before. And this has all happened at just the right time because TopStep Trader had a week long Trading Challenge with cash prizes and I was in the top 10 leader-board everyday -- only below 3rd place for one day -- and was able to pull out the victory in the end! I had a gut feeling that Elliott Wave was the trading methodology for me and I'm very pleased that I made the decision to abandon the methodology that had passed 2 combines and dedicate all of the past year to learning Elliott Wave; hopefully this is just the beginning.

HollywoodTrader (Moviemkr in TST)

The challenge started on Mon Aug. 4th until Fri Aug. 8th and the starting account size was $150,000; so I booked a little over $32,000 for the week. You could trade up to 15 contracts at a time in their permissible product list.

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Good to see you posting again.

I wondered who that guy was who made that big total. Now we know.....

Congratulations.

Bob.


Last edited by bobwest; August 9th, 2014 at 04:44 PM.
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