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Trading Crude : A level approach


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Updated September 12th 2013 by Satch Boogie
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Trading Crude : A level approach

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  #31 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

1st target hit, 1/2 off.

104.18 (1st daily level down) is the next level in play. If we get there I would expect we stall and bounce a bit before deciding if we retrace or continue the downslide.


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  #32 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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The highlighted level area of (104.44 to 104.58) is the range I am watching to see if we can hold above before even thinking of a long side counter trend play.


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  #33 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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Satch Boogie View Post
1st target hit, 1/2 off.

104.18 (1st daily level down) is the next level in play. If we get there I would expect we stall and bounce a bit before deciding if we retrace or continue the downslide.

104.18 hit. The breakout range is now the level on either side of 104.18 and Edit 104.58



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  #34 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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Not a CL chart, but one of daily Gold with monthly and yearly levels. This is the one trade this year I missed that I am kicking myself over.

I had Gold on my radar but fell asleep at the wheel the last several months waiting for a high probability long setup for a longer term play.

GLD came down and bounced right off the bottom Yearly 2nd standard deviation level. So "statistically" there is a 95% chance that GLD will finish out the year at or above that level.

Since hitting the yearly 2nd level on June 28, GLD has rallied and bounced off of the July upper Monthly 1st standard deviation level. That move alone between the two levels is 1464 ticks.


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  #35 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received


Satch Boogie View Post
1st target hit, 1/2 off.

104.18 (1st daily level down) is the next level in play. If we get there I would expect we stall and bounce a bit before deciding if we retrace or continue the downslide.


Just hit the 2nd target of 102.8

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  #36 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

Since the 102.8 target was hit, not a lot of action either way. 102.8 Monthly level seems to be holding at least for now as support. If that remains I suspect we drift back up to the first daily level of 103.30. If not, downside target is on the chart.


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  #37 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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Not a CL chart but one of a daily S&P (SPX) with the 1st yearly level sitting right next to this months 1st monthly level. Probably a little hard to see on the chart since the levels are almost right on top of each other.

This level has attracted and held price near for quite a while.



Will probably post one or two charts tomorrow if there is any action, but since Thursday is a new month with new levels that seems a good place to stop the thread. Thanks for reading.

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  #38 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

We did end up with a slow drift upward back to 103.30 as mentioned a few posts back.



Will see what tomorrow brings.

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  #39 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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I think we need a break and hold of the 103.30 to 103.45 before the shorts will let go of their positions. We have peeked above this level a few times today and price has been pushed back down. If we break and hold, 104.35 is the first upside target.

If price above the levels mentioned above is rejected then I suspect 101.36 level is a good possibility by end of day tomorrow.


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  #40 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received



Satch Boogie View Post
If we break and hold, 104.35 is the first upside target.


104.35 hit and price has stalled at this level, at least temporarily.

15 min chart below. Waiting to see the reaction to this level before picking a side. Long and short targets are on chart



I think that's it and going to call this thread a wrap. See ya down the road.

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September 12, 2013


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