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Trading Crude : A level approach


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Trading Crude : A level approach

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  #11 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

imo ... the levels seem to attract price as I suspectd but my interpretation (as a standalone tool) with CL has not been very good.

As stated earlier an additional short would be taken in the journal at 99.55 and that is the case.


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  #12 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

I am going to modify my approach with regards to CL in this journal. I am as convinced as ever that these levels work on CL just as well as they have for me on other instruments, but interpreting the reaction to those levels has been unique to CL, at least this week.

I will be back after I run some more simulations and will begin again with system #2 as stated in the first post.

In the meantime we are only on the 3rd day of the month and the first monthly level is already in play. This has been a very strong upward move. Unless some massive selling pressure arrives I think 102.80 (1st monthly level) is the next upside target. It is only 6:30 am central time and we are already above the upper daily level (100.76).


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  #13 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received


For what it's wroth, chart with 2nd levels for the daily and weekly.

Price bouncing between daily level 1 and 2, and weekly level 2 right below monthly level 1.

Anyway, have a great 4th ... will be back posting again down the road. Best of luck.


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  #14 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

Should be an interesting week in crude. Chart is where price sits in relationship to last weeks levels.


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  #15 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

One last post for a while. I am going to let some modifications I made run in automated / simulated mode against a live data feed and see where the PNL ends up after a few weeks.

If any of you trade levels or believe in the concept feel free to comment and we can exchange ideas / concepts. Best of luck. Crude has certainly been an interesting trade the last few weeks.

On a discretionary basis, I would love see a pullback to the 104.9 / 104.5 range to get long with a target of 106.25.


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  #16 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

Discretionary trade, not system trade.

Short from 105.15
Target 103.65
Stop 105.65

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  #17 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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109.36 - 109.55 area looks likely.


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  #18 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received

Missed by a tick of touching the daily upper level, then a retest of yesterdays upper level.


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  #19 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
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Obviously a very strong month for crude but price was rejected at the monthly 2nd standard deviation level. Since then we have dipped below the Quarterly 1st standard deviation level but re-tested that again today.


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  #20 (permalink)
St. Louis Mo., USA
 
 
Posts: 75 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 6 given, 79 received


A view of July with just the monthly and quarterly levels.


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September 12, 2013


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