I admit I can't trade manually and not because my fingers are broken. Simply put, I can't control my emotions. The world's best setup could be staring me in the face and I'd have trouble executing. Good old fear and greed; actually more of the former than latter. So, rather than try to rewire my mind, I decided to create auto strategies to do the trading for me.
Most of my auto trading has been in demo mode. Why? I'm simply undercapitalized at this time to sustain the drawdowns from historical backtesting. My general rule of thumb is to limit peak-to-valley DD to 10-30% of equity. Some of my systems, like the one I'm starting to log here, would require margin of at least $50K per contract under these guidelines and that's a bit too heavy for a small speculator like me.
Ideally, I hope to get to the point where I could trade my systems live. Time will tell. An alternative, if successful, is to sell subscriptions to the strategies on a platform like Collective2 or Striker and have risk free income.
The first system on this thread is one I developed for Silver--arguably one of the toughest instruments to trade with any consistency, let alone profitably. It is a long only, swing trader utilizing a 36 minute data series. In order to get the most realistic backtest results, trades are taken at the opening of the trigger bar.
I've attached images of the performance over a trailing 36 month period (the maximum amount of free data from AMP with CQG datafeed). The system will start this morning at 3:00 am ET.
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Here are the GC results with the same algorithm. Keep in mind this is a long only strategy. I think the recent historical performance reflects the GC bear market albeit not as severe as the correction in GC itself.
This trade has an unrealized profit of $5,025 thus far.
Now for some color commentary. This is a perfect example of why I can't trade this system manually for two main reasons. One, I could never resist the urge to take a profit way before this level and two, never would I hold this position over a weekend especially given the volatility of late. My heart would be pounding, my palms and underarms sweating, and I couldn't sleep a wink.
Last edited by SarahKrantz; June 28th, 2013 at 08:59 PM.
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