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Sarah's Silver ATS Journal


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Sarah's Silver ATS Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
Trading: es
 
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Posts: 42 since Apr 2013

I admit I can't trade manually and not because my fingers are broken. Simply put, I can't control my emotions. The world's best setup could be staring me in the face and I'd have trouble executing. Good old fear and greed; actually more of the former than latter. So, rather than try to rewire my mind, I decided to create auto strategies to do the trading for me.

Most of my auto trading has been in demo mode. Why? I'm simply undercapitalized at this time to sustain the drawdowns from historical backtesting. My general rule of thumb is to limit peak-to-valley DD to 10-30% of equity. Some of my systems, like the one I'm starting to log here, would require margin of at least $50K per contract under these guidelines and that's a bit too heavy for a small speculator like me.

Ideally, I hope to get to the point where I could trade my systems live. Time will tell. An alternative, if successful, is to sell subscriptions to the strategies on a platform like Collective2 or Striker and have risk free income.

The first system on this thread is one I developed for Silver--arguably one of the toughest instruments to trade with any consistency, let alone profitably. It is a long only, swing trader utilizing a 36 minute data series. In order to get the most realistic backtest results, trades are taken at the opening of the trigger bar.

I've attached images of the performance over a trailing 36 month period (the maximum amount of free data from AMP with CQG datafeed). The system will start this morning at 3:00 am ET.

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 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
Experience: Intermediate
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No trades today.

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 xiaosi 
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: JIGSAW/SIERRA CHART
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Trading: HHI, HSI, FDAX
 
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Sarah, as I'm sure you realize a truly robust system will run ok on other markets as well. Gold for example, how does your system perform on GC?

XS

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 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
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xiaosi View Post
Sarah, as I'm sure you realize a truly robust system will run ok on other markets as well. Gold for example, how does your system perform on GC?

XS

@XS, I agree with you, but I don't know yet. I'm doing work on GC and a few other instruments now and will have something to post soon.

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 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
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xiaosi View Post
Sarah, as I'm sure you realize a truly robust system will run ok on other markets as well. Gold for example, how does your system perform on GC?

XS

Here are the GC results with the same algorithm. Keep in mind this is a long only strategy. I think the recent historical performance reflects the GC bear market albeit not as severe as the correction in GC itself.

Notice the relatively small number of trades for a 3 year period.

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 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
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I failed to mention Silver fired and is open at 18.580

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 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
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SarahKrantz View Post
I failed to mention Silver fired and is open at 18.580

This trade has an unrealized profit of $5,025 thus far.

Now for some color commentary. This is a perfect example of why I can't trade this system manually for two main reasons. One, I could never resist the urge to take a profit way before this level and two, never would I hold this position over a weekend especially given the volatility of late. My heart would be pounding, my palms and underarms sweating, and I couldn't sleep a wink.

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 Robert Carrillo 
Omaha NE
 
Experience: Intermediate
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SarahKrantz View Post
This trade has an unrealized profit of $5,025 thus far.

Very interesting, I'll enjoy following along.

 
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  #10 (permalink)
 xiaosi 
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: JIGSAW/SIERRA CHART
Broker: MacQuarie Futures/AMP Clearing/CQG
Trading: HHI, HSI, FDAX
 
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Posts: 502 since Feb 2012
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SarahKrantz View Post
This trade has an unrealized profit of $5,025 thus far.

Now for some color commentary. This is a perfect example of why I can trade this system manually for two main reasons. One, I could never resist the urge to take a profit way before this level and two, never would I hold this position over a weekend especially given the volatility of late. My heart would be pounding, my palms and underarms sweating, and I couldn't sleep a wink.

Yes, when I saw the POG this morning, I thought "that silver system is doing well for its first trade"

We trade a managed futures account that's a portfolio of systems, one them is gold...and we're long over the weekend as well...

Good luck.

XS

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  #11 (permalink)
 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
Trading: es
 
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Posts: 42 since Apr 2013

Still in the SI trade from Friday and the ATR Trailing Stop is employed.

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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SarahKrantz View Post
This trade has an unrealized profit of $5,025 thus far.

Now for some color commentary. This is a perfect example of why I can't trade this system manually for two main reasons. One, I could never resist the urge to take a profit way before this level and two, never would I hold this position over a weekend especially given the volatility of late. My heart would be pounding, my palms and underarms sweating, and I couldn't sleep a wink.


Why do you think making it automated will stop your heart pounding, palms sweating, etc?

My experience: Automated does not mean "no emotions." In fact, there will be times where your emotions are more out of control with automated than with manual/discretionary trading.

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 SarahKrantz 
new york city
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: nt
Trading: es
 
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Posts: 42 since Apr 2013


kevinkdog View Post
Why do you think making it automated will stop your heart pounding, palms sweating, etc?

I'm not going to second guess the strategy, unless it starts to deviate well beyond historical norms which I am comfortable with. However, there is a cancel button in case of a psychological emergency.

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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SarahKrantz View Post
I'm not going to second guess the strategy, unless it starts to deviate well beyond historical norms which I am comfortable with. However, there is a cancel button in case of a psychological emergency.

Automated systems will not make second guessing go away. Unfortunately.

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