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Futures Trading

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  #1 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received

Hi everyone,
A little bit about me, I started trading when I turned 17 years old and have never been so passionate about something. When i first started trading I of course was suckered into penny stocks and after loosing all the money I had saved up from working I decide to get serious and start really understanding the stock market and how to make money. After a few years and a lot of dedicated time spent to reading I started to successfully make money in the stock market. This was a great time, but a family friend who has been trading for over 20 years asked me, "why don't you give futures trading a try". So, I took the time to try to apply what I had learned in the stock market into trading futures. It was very appariant to me that this was a different ball game. My risk management was not set up properly and even with paper trading I never really learned what I was truly doing. Many days I would break even, but the bad days killed me. I found my self impulse trading and I new I had to do something. So, here we are now. I came across this bigmiketrading.com and I love it and all the resources it presents. The reason I'm making this journal, is to keep me honest with my trading and hopefully get some insight from you guys. Unfortunately, I can't post every day due to college classes, but I will try to get on at least every other day. Sorry for the long rant

Justin

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  #3 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received


As of April 20, 2012:

ē We now have seen a drop in the E mini of around 5% this is a large drop, but we will now make a few predictions on this. On the daily chart Iím looking at a cumulative volume profile, and Iím noticing that we are now sitting on a CHVN. At 1583.
o My prediction:
I believe we will see some chop at this point and maybe even a test of the 1600 area. IF that is rejected a push down to the 1550 could be in store, but another crucial are is 1570.
1.Possible test of 1600 in the next few days
-Key is to see what happens between buyers and sellers. This is a CLVN.
-IF we do break through 1600 I think the next key zone will be at 1615
-And the next key spot is at 1627
2. The next key area on the way down is 1570. Most people will be looking around 1578, but there will be to much movement there to make a trade.
-If 1578 is broken then we could see a hard move to 1550 where another CHVN.

Once again guys I'm not a pro at this and still defiantly in the learning stages, so i would love your input.
*Note: I'm not using the volume profile to trade yet. This is purely to learn until I become comfortable with this indicator.


Once again I would love your input.

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  #4 (permalink)
Shreveport, LA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 195 since Mar 2012
Thanks: 297 given, 294 received

Hello, welcome to the dark side! I see you are proficient at spotting hi and lo volume nodes. The question is, what will you do when price reaches these zones? What are your triggers? What is your edge? Will you have the deer in the headlights look as I do many times when price visits a predetermined zone. Having a plan is good though, there is just much more to it in execution. By the way, I am no pro so take it for what it's worth. I would also encourage you to throw out the word "prediction." In this game, if you can get past having to predict anything, you will have come a long way toward success as a trader. You don't need to predict, just be able to read price action and know what is more likely to happen when price visits your areas of interest. Easier said than done however.

from Mark Douglas
"You don't need to know what is going to happen next to make $, so long as you have an edge then the laws of probability will decide the outcome over a series of wining and losing trades."
Trading in the Zone

good luck neighbor!

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  #5 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received

Real quick, I've been watching the 5 minutes charts today and saw a trade that I would like everyone to look at and see what they think. I highlighted the area of intrest on the chart and here is what i wrote down.
1. From 12:50 to 1 we traded around a LVN and Accumulation by volume was on an uptrend.
2. We traded through the HVN all the way to a key area (I marked on the daily) at 1580-1581.
3. The Accumulation/Distribution at 1:40 the price ranged from 1580.25 to 1577, and looking at the time and sales it was becoming more apparent bears where taking control.
4. Theoretical short at 1578.25 (when i would have considered pulling the trigger) 2 point stop.
6. 2:40 prices test a HVN and this was where it became clear that bears had control as you could see selling pressure really start to kick in. (Highlighted in yellow)
7. Take profits at 1568.75 (top of the value area)
-On 7. probably would have held longer, but in real trading i would have closed before day ended.
Note: Even with the profitability of this trade. I still know that this was all theoretical, so it's not the same with real money.
-Please let me know what you think!!!

Justin

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  #6 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received


Xelaneb View Post
Hello, welcome to the dark side! I see you are proficient at spotting hi and lo volume nodes. The question is, what will you do when price reaches these zones? What are your triggers? What is your edge? Will you have the deer in the headlights look as I do many times when price visits a predetermined zone. Having a plan is good though, there is just much more to it in execution. By the way, I am no pro so take it for what it's worth. I would also encourage you to throw out the word "prediction." In this game, if you can get past having to predict anything, you will have come a long way toward success as a trader. You don't need to predict, just be able to read price action and know what is more likely to happen when price visits your areas of interest. Easier said than done however.

from Mark Douglas
"You don't need to know what is going to happen next to make $, so long as you have an edge then the laws of probability will decide the outcome over a series of wining and losing trades."
Trading in the Zone

good luck neighbor!

Thank you for all the information and the advice!!

Justin

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  #7 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received

Today: We opened at 1570 and sold off to the 1557 area. This was about 3 points from a monthly CHVN, once this was hit buyers started to come in and pushed the price up and get taken out again. Then a push down to the daily VAL was tested and held after a second test of the daily VAL prices ran up to 1580.25 (yesterday VAL) and once again rejected and the E mini traded down to 1566 closing in value.

Tomorrow: After today's action I think another test of the 1580 area is in the cards. Possibly trading up to 1584 where we have Friday's POC and CHVN. It will be important to observe the price action and who is in control in the 1580-1584 area because this will set the tone for the rest of the week (I think a there is a strong possibly this test will occur in the overnight session), but overall we will still open in value. Tomorrow will be my first day to paper trade based on the volume profile (wish me luck ), so I will put in my key levels and what I am watching for.

1. If we 1580 area overnight I want to see what the what the overnight (or extended trading hours) volume profile says buyers and sellers did at that price. (this wil help me determine if my biased will be long or short for the day.
2. During the RTH I look for 1580 to be tested. If bulls and bears can't determine who is in control. Then i will wait for a second test of 1580 and at that point will be looking to get long/short depending on the tape.
3. If we don't get close to testing 1580 in extended hours and we open above value, then my biased will be to the short side until we hit the pervious days VAH 1570. I want to see a slight bounce off this area and bears starting to come in around the 1572 area knocking out bids.
4. When previous day's VAH is tested if bears do not aggressively push through VAH then I will be looking for a long that will run back up to test the 1580 level.

Bull Side:
Buy: 1580 Target 1: 1584.75 Target 2: 1592
Buy: 1570 Target 1: 1574 Target 2: 1580

Bear Side:
Short: 1584.50 Target1: 1580 Target 2: 1570
Short: 1580 Target 1: 1570 Target 2: 1545.50
Short: 1570 Target 1: 1559.50 Target 2: 1553

I use the L2, Tape, and Accumulation/Distribution by volume determine my biased at these levels

**Remember this is paper trading and I'm defiantly new, so don't use this advice for trades.


Justin

PS: sorry for grammer/sentence errors. No time to re-read it's school time now

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  #8 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received




I attached two pics. one with my volume profile chart and one with a basic 30 minute chart so it's easier to look at.

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  #9 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received

As I said last night we did not test 1580 on the dot, but traded up to 1578.75 and it looks like buyers have been in control tonight.

Two ideas:
1. We push out of of the extended hours vah and then we see a pull back into today's value area.
2. We see selling pressure in the opening hour and a test of 1566, if 1566 is broken we will test 1560 which is yesterday's POC and a CHVN.

-I put my key areas to watch in white.
Good luck trading today
Justin

**Sorry for all the typo's in the post yesterday. Had some time to read it after studying and it looked horrible


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  #10 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ThinkorSwim
Trading: E mini, Stocks
 
jhobbs92's Avatar
 
Posts: 12 since Feb 2013
Thanks: 2 given, 4 received


So, I will post a recap of today and analyze today's action and my performance.
Good News: Last night I posted
Bull Side:
Buy: 1580 Target 1: 1584.75 Target 2: 1592 (This trade happened, but honestly during the day i did not expect this judding by the price action so i will not take credit for it)
Buy: 1570 Target 1: 1574 Target 2: 1580 (Trade could have been taken, exceeded second target by 7points)

Bear Side:
Short: 1584.50 Target1: 1580 Target 2: 1570 (would have lost)
Short: 1580 Target 1: 1570 Target 2: 1545.50 (Trade could have been taken and hit first target, second target not even close)
Short: 1570 Target 1: 1559.50 Target 2: 1553 (hit 1570, but it would have been a bad short)

I had four trades today, and lost -1.75 points.

The positive side i learned something very valuable today. Stick with my pre determined areas and do not deviate from my plan. I lost my money today in the chop and the reason I got hit there because I made a good morning prediction and then I started trying to guess the market and breaking a big rule of mine which is buying in a CHVN. Tomorrow I'm going to attempt to trade with just my predetermined formula (if the market is agreeing with me).
1. Short 1580.50
Covered 1575.75
-The call on this trade was good, but I got out because I let my emotions get to me and moved my stop.
2. Short at 1574
Stop at 1576
3. Short at 1570.75
Stop at 1572.25
4. Short at 1573.50
Stop at 1575.50

-After the morning and 3 lossing trades i decide to wait till the day ended and review my strategy and trades.
**note: i took off my composite volume profile because it would be hard for any one to see my trades (if that makes sense)
I'm really sorry it's hard to depict when I bought and sold


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