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New to futures and doing great

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  #1 (permalink)
Winnipeg Canada
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received

I've been going 3 weeks and doing great. I only trade $USD - $CAD futures, and only 1 direction - short on the $CAD. Normally trade 3 - 4 times a day...some large gains ($50,000 best day ever) but normally $5,000 - $10,000 daily profits. My net profit in 15 trading days is $200k.

Here's my strategy. I start with a short position of 20 CAD contracts. If the $CAD rises, depending on the strength and volume, I dollar cost average up, then profit on the retraction. No fancy programs, feeds, Meta Ninja stuff..just intuition. In 50 trades, I've never lost once.

My current position is now short 210 CAD contracts (September 2013), with a break even price of .9796. If the volume is light tonight, I will cover at .9792 otherwise set a trailing limit of 10 points and see where she heads.

I got a little greedy last Thursday night and I lost out on an extra $100k Friday morning on the huge $CAD rise and fall but there's always tomorrow.


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  #3 (permalink)
Phoenix, AZ
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Multiple
Trading: CL, ES
 
rubyslippage's Avatar
 
Posts: 76 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 26 given, 502 received



stocktrading99 View Post
I've been going 3 weeks and doing great. I only trade $USD - $CAD futures, and only 1 direction - short on the $CAD. Normally trade 3 - 4 times a day...some large gains ($50,000 best day ever) but normally $5,000 - $10,000 daily profits. My net profit in 15 trading days is $200k.

Here's my strategy. I start with a short position of 20 CAD contracts. If the $CAD rises, depending on the strength and volume, I dollar cost average up, then profit on the retraction. No fancy programs, feeds, Meta Ninja stuff..just intuition. In 50 trades, I've never lost once.

My current position is now short 210 CAD contracts (September 2013), with a break even price of .9796. If the volume is light tonight, I will cover at .9792 otherwise set a trailing limit of 10 points and see where she heads.

I got a little greedy last Thursday night and I lost out on an extra $100k Friday morning on the huge $CAD rise and fall but there's always tomorrow.

Awesome! Be sure to transfer your gains to an untouchable account, because there's nothing like a beginner's winning streak to lead to a massive drawdown/blowup.

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  #4 (permalink)
Winnipeg Canada
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received


rubyslippage View Post
Awesome! Be sure to transfer your gains to an untouchable account, because there's nothing like a beginner's winning streak to lead to a massive drawdown/blowup.

The only thing that could blow up my account is if the $CAD rose 10 cents overnight. The only way I can lose with my strategy is if the $CAD rises out of range to continue averaging up and then the contract expires, with the associated rollover costs. I sold my business and have lots of free capital just waiting to continue averaging up, and with smaller 20 contact shorts, I just keep picking away.

I never thought clearing $2000 a day would feel like nothing was accomplished. I find you quickly lose perspective over the dollars when you think how little effort you put out for $2000 (a few pips) when some ditchdigger is breaking his back all day working for $200.

 
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  #5 (permalink)
Lubbock TX
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Stage 5 Trading
Trading: CL
 
MWinfrey's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,880 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 1,450 given, 3,325 received

Just a suggestion. Now that you've accumulated some capital, only risk that accumulated capital or at least put a limit on how much of your base capital that you will risk. I know you outline the only way you can lose, but things can happen that you haven't considered and will take your account. At least with my suggestion, if the worst case happens you still have capital to trade with. I wish you the best. Hope you continue posting.

Mike

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  #6 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker: Tradestation, DeCarley, others
Trading: futures
 
Posts: 2,806 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,453 given, 5,418 received

To the OP: Congratulations, and I hope your winning ways continue.


To everyone else, especially newbies: Averaging down, or adding to a loser, with a leveraged instrument like futures is in general a path to destruction. Pretty much guaranteed. The method might be successful for years, but eventually your luck will run out. If you quit before this happens, you are golden. If you don't, you will be broke.

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  #7 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
Thanks: 121 given, 117 received

@stocktrading99:

Here's a book suggestion for you:

Amazon.com: The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (9780812973815): Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Books

... and if you think that this is rather theoretical, here's another one:

Inventing Money: The Story of Long-Term Capital Management and the Legends Behind It: Nicholas Dunbar: 9780471498117: Amazon.com: Books

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  #8 (permalink)
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: TD Ameritrade, Dorman/Zenfire
Trading: CL,ES
 
VinceVirgil's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,752 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 2,144 given, 9,218 received


stocktrading99 View Post
I've been going 3 weeks and doing great. I only trade $USD - $CAD futures, and only 1 direction - short on the $CAD. Normally trade 3 - 4 times a day...some large gains ($50,000 best day ever) but normally $5,000 - $10,000 daily profits. My net profit in 15 trading days is $200k.

Here's my strategy. I start with a short position of 20 CAD contracts. If the $CAD rises, depending on the strength and volume, I dollar cost average up, then profit on the retraction. No fancy programs, feeds, Meta Ninja stuff..just intuition. In 50 trades, I've never lost once.

My current position is now short 210 CAD contracts (September 2013), with a break even price of .9796. If the volume is light tonight, I will cover at .9792 otherwise set a trailing limit of 10 points and see where she heads.

I got a little greedy last Thursday night and I lost out on an extra $100k Friday morning on the huge $CAD rise and fall but there's always tomorrow.

Wow, this is incredible.

What are you doing with your time that I am not doing with mine?

VV

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  #9 (permalink)
Greensboro NC
 
Experience: None
Platform: TOS/ NT Dorman
Trading: ES TF CL
 
Rad4633's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,352 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 2,651 given, 891 received


kevinkdog View Post
To the OP: Congratulations, and I hope your winning ways continue.


To everyone else, especially newbies: Averaging down, or adding to a loser, with a leveraged instrument like futures is in general a path to destruction. Pretty much guaranteed. The method might be successful for years, but eventually your luck will run out. If you quit before this happens, you are golden. If you don't, you will be broke.

3 weeks ago trader doing exactly this making 20k a day got way wrong in CL -$270k wrong lost account and all profits 1 day. Also this trading style has been my worst mistake bc I want to prove I can ride it out.

OP- good to hear of your success hope it continues

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  #10 (permalink)
Winnipeg Canada
 
 
Posts: 4 since Jun 2013
Thanks: 0 given, 2 received


That's because he averaged in too early and tapped out his capital by going in too big, too early. I take small short contracts on the $CAD (never long) and only average up after a major move.

It worked great for me with $65K cleared yesterday morning at .9792 and now I'm out of the market until I see a noticeable move upwards on the $CAD. Even if it takes a year of waiting, I'm up 31% for the month and year so I've beat almost every fund's annual rate of return already.

I simply fail to see the risk in what I am doing. I've made money in every single trade (about 40 trades) for 1 month and the dollar has been totally random. Its not like the dollar has been predictable or I've been lucky.

I look at it this way. If I went to Vegas with $5 million and only bet $1 every hand, then doubled my bet on every losing hand until I won, I would make money. That's why they limit the spreads for minimum and maximum.

I had savings in a mutual fund that lost 18% in the past 2 months. I've redeemed that money and adding it to the trading capital.

Maximum amount I can lose is pretty straightforward as the $CAD has a definite ceiling and by going short, I avoid the risk of the bottomless pit to 75 cents it sometimes goes to.


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