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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.


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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

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  #1 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Hello,

I have finally taken the plunge to commit myself to keeping a journal chronicling my day to day thoughts, actions, reactions the good the bad and the ugly.

So a brief history, It starts off how most of these stories in trading seem to start off, struck up a conversation with someone who "dabbled" in the markets and this conversation initially had my interest but when the talk turned to the money at stake it got my attention, of course you only seem to hear about how much was made over x amount of time and it was these stories that set me on my path to easy money, or so i thought.

As is often the case I have blown a number of accounts along the way, tried countless strategies, swamped my charts with indicators and moving averages that only served to confuse me, traded different markets and instruments over the years and still failed to be consistent.

At present I have stripped out my charts price and volume is all I use, Sticking with some basic TA support, resistance a few patterns I'm familiar with, trends etc, just trying to keep it simple for the time being. I only trade the YM 1 contract at a time for the time being stats showed I had the best results on this and I stick to one instrument so it has my attention throughout the day. (I'm easily distracted) Time frames I use 30 min for support and resistance 400tick/5min and 1 min from time to time (yes its noisy)

My biggest obstacle is in the mirror, Back testing and sim trading have good results, I believe in my analysis but I have some issues when pulling the trigger and over managing my trades, hopefully this journal will keep me accountable for my actions as well as my inaction's.

Be honest.
Gozilla

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  #3 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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This is a recap of yesterdays action from my perspective.

Not sure if this will show up right with the charts but I will give it a shot.

1. Chart 400 Tick time frame, Became a little fixated with possible head and shoulder formation and was waiting at initial neckline about 15110 to enter short, Shorted @ 15106 looking for initial move to yesterdays low @ about 15080, after what seemed like a lot of bounces at 96 was unsure about further move down also realized at this point that 15120 may have been actual break and that a retest was looking likely. exited trade @ 15101

Lesson: Wait for the retest, sure it might not come back but it may offer safer trade instead of chasing the initial break.

2. Established trend underway shorted @15072 trendline touch and possible rejection target @ 15050, trade seemed to be down for bulk of the time as it was not moving away emotions set in and micro managed trade to death exit @ 15070.

Lesson: Trade was still safe and well away from stop after fifth touch use high at touch as stop then let trendline act as moving stop. Go with the flow on these!

Additions: The head and shoulders pattern was a good trade if adjusted for the higher neckline on the second shoulder would have hit target for 110 points, but realistically if I had entered it right I would have been chopped out for <20 points. The second shoulder on the 1 min time frame to me was H+S or inverse cup and handle I did not notice this as I was watching 400T and it was not so clear to me.

However I was watching the retest, the 2nd test and the 3rd test and could not act (analysis paralysis/fear) Decided to short the retest of the range break but it never came back. After the second trade felt my head was not in the game so called it quits for the day.

+7 its something

Is it too honest?
Gozilla



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 ratfink 
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Gozilla View Post
Is it too honest?

We can never be too honest with ourselves in this game, or golf, or life. Welcome the journal!

Travel Well
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 DarkPoolTrading 
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Welcome and well done for starting a journal.

Nice post analysis. Good questions that you're asking yourself.

I look forward to following your journal.

Diversification is the only free lunch
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  #6 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Another day of great potential results in mediocre trading for a small profit but a profit none the less, so got to take some positives where I can I guess.

I will go over the trades to begin with then cover my thoughts on the rest of the day to see what I could have done differently.

1. After watching price bounce nicely off of 15028 at previous resistance I considered approaching this as a double top trade, I waited for it to come back up and as it struggled to cross short was initiated @ 15023 very sluggish on the trigger, strangely I considered previous low @90 as target, stopped out @ 15032.

Lesson: Bad trade, By this time it's safe to assume we are in the midst of an uptrend, shorting in an uptrend mid channel, seriously! I am not enlightened enough to take on marginal trades like this without very good reasons.

2. Watched price rally after breaking wedge, Had quick look at support and resistance and for trendlines, created additional trendline (in red) to link latter highs which linked up with price at resistance and a round number. Waited on rejection and shorted the move lower. Short @15089 stop @15101 target @15075 chose this as anything that looked smelled or sounded like support may throw a spanner in the works given I am short again in an uptrend. See previous resistance.

Lesson: For me good trade, Trade taken at extreme of channel (altered) left target alone once in, moved stop to high of previous candle as it moved south, planned the trade traded the plan.


Thoughts during the day.
Established lower trendline during premarket hours using parallel rays so upper line was waiting to be homed, Noticed H&S forming after open but ruled it out as I regularly get hacked to bits and stopped out for the day in the opening 30 minutes of trading. Watched price move to target (see chart) failed to short also set upper channel at this price. Again price pulled back to neckline I often treat prices as exact and not zones I botched going long thinking it was going lower and breaking established trend.

Rising wedge started to form and as I was unsure how to trade it sat on my hands and waited for the formation to break, but I did watch the multiple longs off the trendline and wished I was more confident or capable to trade within a formation. eventually broke to the upside hit resistance where I shorted dropped to target then came back up again, I really wanted to enter on double top formation but earlier DT burned me on that, quit trading for the day after this as I was getting a little tired and losing focus.


Final lesson: Take the opportunities as you see fit the market will let you know soon enough if you are right or wrong.

That was long winded.
Gozilla

I find it odd that I was bearish the whole day and only traded to the short side in what was a raging bull market, What I'm looking at and what I see seem to be two different things at times.

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 Big Mike 
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You seem to place a great deal of emphasis on chart patterns (H&S, rising wedge, etc).

I am all for trading price action. Check this thread in fact:



But, I would urge a bit of caution on placing too much emphasis on traditional chart patterns, especially on an intraday level in futures.

It is very important that you find your own method that resonates with you, that you understand inside and out, and that you have complete faith/confidence in (having done your own research, homework) and trade it. So I am not trying to get you to follow someone or something else, but I think you should at the very least take a look in the Webinars section and watch the six or seven webinars from FT71 here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Most of them touch on auction theory and volume profile, and since FT71 is a scalper, I think it will be very relevant for you. In my opinion, much more so than these chart patterns.

Mike

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  #8 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Big Mike View Post
You seem to place a great deal of emphasis on chart patterns (H&S, rising wedge, etc).

I am all for trading price action. Check this thread in fact:



But, I would urge a bit of caution on placing too much emphasis on traditional chart patterns, especially on an intraday level in futures.

It is very important that you find your own method that resonates with you, that you understand inside and out, and that you have complete faith/confidence in (having done your own research, homework) and trade it. So I am not trying to get you to follow someone or something else, but I think you should at the very least take a look in the Webinars section and watch the six or seven webinars from FT71 here on futures.io (formerly BMT). Most of them touch on auction theory and volume profile, and since FT71 is a scalper, I think it will be very relevant for you. In my opinion, much more so than these chart patterns.

Mike


Hi,

Funnily enough I have gotten my hands on a couple of books over the last 2 or 3 months to read into this subject, (Steidlmayer on markets and Daltons mind over markets are these the right books for the job?) I'm making slow progress on it and have gone over a couple of FT71's webinars over the weekend and found them to be pretty good and cleared a few things up for me but its something I would have to watch alot of times over to get the best out of them (slow learner), I'm a long way from employing it as an approach in trading but it is a string I would like to add to my bow.

Gozilla

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  #9 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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A little bit good a little bit bad, need to address a few flaws that I encountered on Friday that I have been giving some thought to over the weekend.

We will as ever start off with the trades in numbers and the misses as letters this time instead of 2 charts as there was not alot that I saw as the day progressed.

1. Premarket support becomes resistance, I am never quite sure how much emphasis to put on premarket or overnight activity but I decided to keep an eye on it after open. As price broke up I looked for a rejection and to my mind got it, entered short @15104 stop @ 15110 target was @15090 I considered 80 and at one point almost moved it but it was early and I wanted to lock in a quick profit. As it approached 90 my DOM went odd most of the orders came off with a lot of gaps was not sure if there was news out or broker feed mucking up. Almost bailed at this point but price got there just in time.

2. Price hit support and looked for it to reject again, Messed this one up in a couple of ways, was half asleep at the time and entered order to get in @15016 but order was to short rather than long also I was not considering short term possible resistance above at 15023, I immediately closed trade once I realised and was lucky to gain 2 ticks. Thought about reversing but I had made a mistake and was not keen on possibly making another so soon.

3. Had now established a trendline and was looking for a bounce, messed this one up aswell. Whilst watching it develop I was considering where to put stop and thought correct place was at 14975 at my point of entry I was not comfortable with such a wide stop (wide for me). Entry @14988 stop @14980 target @15005 I should have considered that 15000 may have been the most likely initial target but that was not until I was stopped.

A. Waited for price to approach entry and was evaluating stops and targets at the time when the rejection went off entry was set for 15128 but I had a winner already and was scared to give such a large chunk of it back on a wider stop 10-12 points I was at this time up a whole tick for the week so passed on the trade which is what I should have done for number 3.

B. Same story as usual though I could have entered I procrastinated too much and it was off like a shot, second time the stop was too wide for my liking so left it.

Lessons: I have been really careful in playing a more wait for confirmation approach to trading this week and it's been beneficial but I feel that there is a time and a place for it i.e 1,2 and 3 there is a time when you may have to jump the gun A and B but the thing is working out how to differentiate between the two. There are going to be plenty of good trades in the future that have wide stops, I have to either accept the risk or forget the trade.

Week Recap
Monday +4
Tuesday -29 got close to my daily stop @20 should have stopped took one more trade did not realise I had 2 on instead of 1 blew past my daily stop.
Wednesday +7
Thursday +5
Friday +8

So close to being positive but happy with the result as its far better than the last few weeks.

Gozilla

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 Big Mike 
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Overnight levels are important, but not for resistance rather for targets. If you check the master homework thread you can get your bearings for that data.

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 Gozilla 
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I was unable to spend alot of time watching the markets and only took one trade for the day but looking at the chart in hindsight I don't think I missed a whole lot.

The one and only trade: Watched a short term level of resistance at 15178 and initially considered a range to develop between there and mid 50's, Price eventually broke resistance and moved higher so waited for a quick pullback, Entered long @15180 with a stop @15173 I was a little unsure about target 15220 may have been a little far fetched but was also had 200 as a possible exit point. Felt a little anxious once in as I would have liked breakout to have gone a little further before retesting and as it came back below 80 started to think I got suckered into a fake out, I held on as stop was close by anyway.
Price quickly rallied from there but seemed to hit a roadblock at 95, moved stop to 86 and as price stalled at 95 had my doubts about price rallying further DOM (thin on YM) had a lot of larger orders on the sell side, eventually gave into emotions and moved target to 93 for immediate fill.

Lesson: Whilst I got out near highs I made a decision to exit on emotion DOM was repping a lot of orders on the sell side a few points off market I know that these may not actually go through and that they could be just for show, also time and sales seemed to go nuts whenever price hit 95 with sellers hitting market, I had a gut feeling about exit but not a conscious decision based on fact, I don't think I know enough yet about making judgements based on DOM and T&S this could have been a little pullback instead of a reversal and potentially I might have missed out on a pretty good trade.



Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Stopped out for the day 3 losers in a row 1 poorly handled and 2 plain bad, so lets get started.

1. Really slow at getting into the trade probably 10 points to slow, trade was in profit off the bat as price hit high of 15177 felt comfortable enough to move stop to BE I completely ignored the trend line and as a result incurred a 1 point loss. If I see a trend and trade a trend why cant I work with the trend?

2. Interpreted move as a flag breakout and traded as such as chart points out no specific number in mind just keeping the upper (blue dash line) in mind for a profit objective, As price rallied I moved stop up behind, stop stood @15210 and hit. Realised once in trade that 220 which I felt might have been a target yesterday was close by and should have exited at any sign of trouble but got greedy and held and hoped for price to keep pushing.

3. Somehow convinced myself this was a double top so entered took short and for a while felt a little comfortable then as price came back the more logical part of my brain started to point out the flaws, In trend mid channel, target gets closer with every candle. Double tops to me = Trend, break of trend, retest of highs from trend, Fail.

Lesson: Actually learn from your lessons and don't trade tired as too many mistakes were made on a day with good potential.

So 3 straight losers for the day and a whole lot of poor management thrown in for good measure.
-10

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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No post yesterday as there was not much to explain took a trade early on in the day after price seesawed for a stretch got out for +4 and called it a day on the live and tried to sim trade the chop and failed miserably.

That brings us onto todays action which there seemed to be quite a lot of but the usual story comes to the fore.

1. Break of short term trend with possible move up to 14850. Think I miss analyzed and got my entry wrong blue line shows where I was toggling between as possible entries on a break of the line, I lacked patience and tried to make a trade fit.

2. A lot more straight forward, area was acting as support and thought that we were possibly entering a range between 14790 and 14850. Started to move stop behind price once it started to rally but trying to keep enough distance to avoid being wicked out, eventually got stopped out for +10 not so sure about the stop and wonder if I gave back more than I should have or given it more room. Trade management is still something I am struggling with.



Notes from the day:
I flick between a couple of different time frames as things can seem clearer from a different perspective, Today I could see a lot of the same things playing out over all the charts but lacked the conviction and confidence to take the trades as they presented themselves. I am my own worst enemy trading with too much emotion at times, I'm trying to overcome years of poor trading and losses that have left there mark over the years, I'm working hard to change but it is a very slow process but a process I can come through all the better for.




Gozilla

Also I like to watch how patterns play out, H&S was a 70 point target on break price blew past the target but it retested the target as resistance offering a double top at the bottom (if I make any sense) or as some might refer to it "resistance" just seems a little coincidental how it works out like that.

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 Gozilla 
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Internet has been really patchy since Friday hopefully its all in order, no charts for Friday's action just a recap of the week that has been.

Friday: 1 profit, 2 losers for a total of -11 points taking the weekly tally to a grand total of -1 tick commission not included.

Good points: My thoughts on the week that had been are positive despite the re-occurrence of some mistakes previously highlighted in the journal, I allowed more trades to run a little instead of freaking out at +8 ticks planned my trades out a little more thoroughly and made some progress when it comes to stop and target placement.

Bad points: My lack of conviction once identifying an opportunity has been frustrating, this will not be something that is solved overnight but at the same time I ask myself why not? I also need to be more realistic when setting targets and stops and accept the risks involved once in. Also being realistic with my approach i.e will I really hold to target or will I get stopped/get out by small oscillations in price between entry and target this is one of my bigger hurdles that I am struggling with as I just want to bank the ticks on any small gain I can at minute and this is slowing my progress down a lot.

Now that I keep a journal I find it frustrating to repeat the same mistakes over and over again as it is very easy to sweep your own fallibility under the carpet when you do not keep your thoughts, ideas and learning's in the one place you must revisit time and time again this is a timeline of my trading life I need to be patient and understand this is a marathon not a sprint.

Agenda for the week ahead: Prepare for the day ahead prior to market open, Trade with the trend if trend becomes evident, trade only at extremes of range and channel none of this mid channel nonsense that chewed me up last week. (do not understand mid channel enough) Work on level of conviction, continue to allow trades to breath a little +10 is good +20 if reasonable is better, wait for confirmation and trade retests but try and leave initial breakouts alone.

And last but not least continue to look listen and learn, I have spent when able to much of the weekend contemplating my approach and going through the many threads on here and have found numerous excellent threads that have helped me to think more about how I think about trading, it is encouraging to see others that have been where I think I am and have moved to where I want to be.

I think I think to much.
Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Thought it was an interesting day yesterday, plenty of setups on offer to be taken advantage of but I had limited myself in yesterdays post to weed out some of the more edgier trades and I think I achieved that to some degree.

So I will start off with the trades first then move onto the other opportunities/thoughts.

1. This was the third touch of this price but the first time outside the trend and was ready to trade as a triple/double bottom (double as it was outside the downtrend) Entry @14488 target @14510 (considered 14560 and 14520 as high from first bounce of price) as I just wanted a quick trade for the first of the week stop @14474. Initially price moved up but stalled in the mid 90's after watching this over a few minutes convinced myself it was coming down and resuming down move, moved stop to 14482 and out.

2. Set up as range resistance, went short @14550 target @14525 stop @14560 as price moved quickly into profit started to trail stop behind as price went +14 re adjusted target to 14530 moved stop to 14545 price bounced and hit stop.

3. Had now established channel and looking for shorts to the downside entry off candle @14658 target 14630 (most recent low) stop @14670 patience was tested on stop but held ground, as price approached target I kept my distance with the stop but I moved target to 14634 as an idea popped into my head price was going to stall prior to target. Target hit. Whilst happy with the result of the trade I could or should have let it move to lower part of channel or even stayed in as long as it was within the channel, This is my idea of where I would like to be when I enter a trade to be able to hold until it runs its course.

Moving my stops too soon or too much was a killer for me on the first 2 trades of the day as both trades offered great potential I am stuck between protecting my account by limiting losses but harming my account from loss of potential it is a difficult balancing act, but one that I hope to improve on.

The opportunities not taken are explained on the chart.

+23
Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Not such a clear cut day today until of course you look back a see what has happened over the course of the day, I'll keep it short and sweet.

1. Red channel is where I had my lines drawn at the time this was an error on my part that led to a trade on poor analysis. Entered where I thought upper channel was being rejected was good for 10 seconds then stopped out. Entry @14670 stop @14680 target recent low @14640.

2. Entered off candle on trend line @14682 Target @14710 stop @14670 felt it was an area of resistance if it got there it would be third time of the day in this area. Initially was confident in the trade but as time progressed became uneasy, price did not seem to peel off the line whilst price was increasing I would have liked to have seen price move a little more to upper part of channel. Decided to move stop up a lot more and got taken out @14679.

3. Now in the short term looking to the downside, even though price had made a move above the channel entered short @14700 (poor entry as candle had not closed out) target set @14650 stop @14707 this was tight given I only had 7 ticks left in the day to hitting my daily stop loss. Price moved down 20 points and at this point I moved stop to +10 and decided stop or target nothing gets moved. Stop hit.

It was very tempting today after the first two trades to use a wide stop that would take me beyond my daily stop and justifying it because I had a profit yesterday. I need to protect my gains and keep a lid on this as I have been here before and it did not work out to well last time.

I am also giving consideration to using a wider daily stop as 20 ticks a day does not offer a lot of flexibility but this is further down the road as my main focus is to trade smarter and work out the kinks in how I think when I'm trading.

-3
Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Short and sweet 1 trade for the day as was unable to be at the screens all day.

Took short entry at top of channel for a further move down, slight mistake made when putting in the order but it was for the good this time. Initially set target for the previous lows @14778. Struggled to keep my cool in the 90's as price oscillated a lot (in my mind) but held the stop at 812 as price moved to target I started to play with target price moving it between 80 and 70ish where I felt it would hit bottom of channel, Price hit low 80's and I chickened out moved order to 80 got hit.




+24
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 Gozilla 
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Bit of a sloppy day with a couple of mistakes that could have been handled a little better.

1. Price was approaching S/R at 14970 see 30 min chart, was a little eager on the entry and entered on anticipation of break of candle on 1 min chart entry @14965 target mid 40's stop @14972. Despite stop being where it was ended up out @14974 due to slippage on my whole contract.

Lesson: Think I might have gotten a little slack with my entries by entering before the break and it cost me also should stick to 1 time frame for entries and use the others to compliment as there was no entry on the usual 400 tick chart.

2. Did not have a lot of time to plan this one out, drew channel right after the second touch from above at 14950 price had already touched trend again and was still moving up so entered @14975 looking for high 90's stop was @14965. Price moved to 95 and stuttered a little and was unsure if this was as high as it was going bearing in mind 15000 was going to offer resistance shifted order to 14992 and got filled.

3. This was a get in prior to confirmation trade as I thought price could shift away from the line quick. Long @14971 as price touched trend line stop @14965 target @14991 stop moved up on confirmation to 14968 and after a brief run up got stopped out.

Notes: Was pretty keen to short break of channel and the retest of channel in the mid 90's but it's not something I have worked with enough to feel comfortable with as I like to see a bit more space between the break and retest as I cant differentiate well enough between a real change of trend and a fake break.




+5
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 Gozilla 
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Again no charts for Friday, seemed to be getting on the wrong side of things most of the day 3 negative 1 positive overall -14 for the day.

Weekly recap: +35 for the week which is a very rare occurrence as most positive weeks over a long stretch of time are rarely over 30 ticks and most losers are more or less of the same amount if not a little more with the addition of comms. Whilst I made changes at the start of the week I need to be mindful that this is only 1 week of results and as such I have to treat this as an exception and not the norm. In terms of trades taken this is also one of the lowest volume weeks I have had this year and I think that comes down to the rules I set out to stop myself taking trades which are outside what I consider the better setups, I feel I will have to stick with these rules for a few more weeks/months but I can see myself ripping down the house to reexamine the foundations as I think I need to strengthen the base before taking on the more questionable trades.

All together I am quite positive about the changes I have made for the best part, I exercised patience and waited for the trades to come to me, I executed the trades when they presented themselves instead of choking, I allowed more of the trades to get past the 8-12 point mark which is usually where I panic out and it was these trades that made it past this area that made all the difference to the bottom line, the fact is in recent months I had been just aiming for 10 ticks and this is not really how I want to trade but it is where I had gotten to as trades were consistently getting to the 8-12 tick area before coming back to entry. It has been a struggle at times to leave trades alone to give them space to move and it will be a continuing struggle to let them move to fulfill the targets I set out but it is something that I can achieve with time and effort.

Next week there are not a whole lot of days to work on this due to holidays in the US but moving forward with my plan I aim to stick to last weeks approach but the changes I will have to make are: Stop moving my stops so aggressively behind, they have saved my in terms of lessening losses but they have cost me more by getting out of good trades too early. Continue to work on allowing trades to move to target or leave them to stay in trend where applicable.

My stats for the week are below, this is not something I will do often but I want to post it for myself to show that sticking to a plan does pay off.


Gozilla

Also I'm starting to notice problems on the long side of things my overall win rate over the last 3 weeks is at 18% over 11 trades, I know 11 trades is a small sample but at what point does a sample become big enough to point out any serious flaws?

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BeansTwoNiner
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Again no charts for Friday, seemed to be getting on the wrong side of things most of the day 3 negative 1 positive overall -14 for the day.

Weekly recap: +35 for the week which is a very rare occurrence as most positive weeks over a long stretch of time are rarely over 30 ticks and most losers are more or less of the same amount if not a little more with the addition of comms. Whilst I made changes at the start of the week I need to be mindful that this is only 1 week of results and as such I have to treat this as an exception and not the norm. In terms of trades taken this is also one of the lowest volume weeks I have had this year and I think that comes down to the rules I set out to stop myself taking trades which are outside what I consider the better setups, I feel I will have to stick with these rules for a few more weeks/months but I can see myself ripping down the house to reexamine the foundations as I think I need to strengthen the base before taking on the more questionable trades.

All together I am quite positive about the changes I have made for the best part, I exercised patience and waited for the trades to come to me, I executed the trades when they presented themselves instead of choking, I allowed more of the trades to get past the 8-12 point mark which is usually where I panic out and it was these trades that made it past this area that made all the difference to the bottom line, the fact is in recent months I had been just aiming for 10 ticks and this is not really how I want to trade but it is where I had gotten to as trades were consistently getting to the 8-12 tick area before coming back to entry. It has been a struggle at times to leave trades alone to give them space to move and it will be a continuing struggle to let them move to fulfill the targets I set out but it is something that I can achieve with time and effort.

Next week there are not a whole lot of days to work on this due to holidays in the US but moving forward with my plan I aim to stick to last weeks approach but the changes I will have to make are: Stop moving my stops so aggressively behind, they have saved my in terms of lessening losses but they have cost me more by getting out of good trades too early. Continue to work on allowing trades to move to target or leave them to stay in trend where applicable.

Gozilla

Also I'm starting to notice problems on the long side of things my overall win rate over the last 3 weeks is at 18% over 11 trades, I know 11 trades is a small sample but at what point does a sample become big enough to point out any serious flaws?

I too suffered from many things you mentioned from your entry, like going past X ticks profitable, moving stops, letting the trade work to hit target, but you did mention about building a strong foundation and moving forward from there. The fact that you're patient is a good thing!

Long story short, I'm a recruit with TST looking for the same things you are, consistency in my results, but more importantly, the process.

I've enrolled in TSTU's CTD, and its already paying off in terms of learning what I thought I knew, but really did not know. I am not benefiting financially by promoting their course.



If you have not looked into TST as tool to aid in your development, its gonna cost a lot of money on your own.

Watch the orientation intro video and decide for yourself if the course is something for you, and be honest with yourself. Everything Bob mentions is true, I did not believe it until I saw the videos myself after learning about what I did not know.

All the best in your journey and hope to see you in the CTD Office Hours.

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 Gozilla 
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I too suffered from many things you mentioned from your entry, like going past X ticks profitable, moving stops, letting the trade work to hit target, but you did mention about building a strong foundation and moving forward from there. The fact that you're patient is a good thing!

Long story short, I'm a recruit with TST looking for the same things you are, consistency in my results, but more importantly, the process.

If you have not looked into TST as tool to aid in your development, its gonna cost a lot of money on your own.

Watch the orientation intro video and decide for yourself if the course is something for you, and be honest with yourself. Everything Bob mentions is true, I did not believe it until I saw the videos myself after learning about what I did not know.

All the best in your journey and hope to see you in the CTD Office Hours.

TST is something I have considered as I think it might be beneficial for me to work within a business framework where I have to answer to someone else other than myself. I am a long way from feeling confident in setting about taking it on as I am far from achieving the consistency I would like.

Whilst having coaches or scouts available to discuss trading with if you meet some of the criteria to improve on any shortcomings you may have is good, for me at this point in my trading endeavor I am struggling mostly with the psychology involved (I have a good idea what the problem is) when I am live in the markets. I have read a lot of books and been through a lot of webinars and I might be wrong but whilst others can help only I can solve these issues.

But saying that I do like the setup it is easy to kid yourself on when the results are not matching expectation but with a business behind you I would expect them to be purely results/performance orientated and would be quick to flag up any issues that they might have in regards to a traders performance. It might be something I go for down the line when I feel more confident in my capacity as a trader.

(Chicken and the egg) Would I be better off as a trader doing it now and failing or better off waiting until I feel more consistent?

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Just as I thought, last week was an exception and I have come back to earth with a bit of a bump, this is more the norm for me following success with failure but you cant win them all so lets see what went wrong.

So far this week I have done 3 trades 1 for Monday 2 on Tuesday and 100% fail rate for a total loss of 25 ticks, I'm a little disappointing with the trades as I think they were sloppy and should have been avoided I think I passed some of the better ones and a little boredom might of crept in that may have had an influence on my decisions.

1. Not sure what I was thinking, too focused on the small picture and not considering that price has come off a major number that price has multi-topped at took long @14972 target @15000 stop @14963 immediately knew I was in trouble (funny how that happens once you click the button) so sat back and took it like a man.

2. Went short as price hit lower channel line on the expectation it would drop off soon rather than later, price held onto line longer than expected and again another stop out. Entry @14951 target red trendline stop @14961 stop was still under trendline but I feel I have to get out somewhere as I am not sure if it will keep hugging the line and grind up against position.

3. Probably one of the worst ones I have done for a while with very poor reasoning. Thought it would move lower and that it was a small pullback Short @14834 target 14800-14760 me being me I am unlikely to hold all the way down to where I think a resumption of the move down is likely to hit. Stop @14840 again like trade 1 realised that the price had created a higher high in blue box and this probably meant my trade was going to fail but as it was in profit thought it'll be fine, profit eroded and stopped out.

So. I think I must have forgotten about last weeks performance as I have traded pretty poorly so far this week, I feel I have been looking at the small picture and tried to make things fit into that picture the results have been what I should expect when I think/trade like this.



Next post is going to be looking at the bigger picture which I think I have lost sight of in recent weeks and I am a little shocked at what I am missing out on as I put the blinkers on and narrowed my view.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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I have become too focused on just what happens during the day and have gotten slack on keeping my eye on the culmination of several days of price movement. At the start of each trading session I clear my charts and usually only put in horizontals I'll often look left until I have a few levels marked off that are above and below current price. I don't give much consideration to trend lines as I like to see how things unfold throughout the day and this mentality might be a problem.

I have a few charts on each chart book that I experiment on with lines and time frames so some of my charts can be really messy. I flicked onto this one at the weekend and the only thing on it at the time was the blue dotted line but as the chart was zoomed out to the max I got a little surprise. As I was looking a lot of things seemed obvious and I have to admit when I look at my trades in this context I find myself questioning why I am getting involved where and when I am.

I need to think this through some more this is all hindsight even though there are a couple of trades in there that I would have been stopped out of and of course the other issue of whether or not I would have taken them at the time or held them for the duration?

I know the chart is a cluttered mess and I am skipping over flags and breaks but to me at least it makes a little sense.

Also bearing in mind some of these are trades that I have to knock back due to rule limitations. It would be really easy to misinterpret the meanings of the rules when faced with these opportunities.

Gozilla

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 ratfink 
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Gozilla View Post
I know the chart is a cluttered mess and I am skipping over flags and breaks but to me at least it makes a little sense.

Its actually a really good chart, thanks for posting it, maybe just keep concurrent downside channels available as well.

I share all the same psycho weaknesses and then some. Each week I wish for the sitting on hands ability to rise forth and dominate me - I'm still waiting.

Travel Well
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 Gozilla 
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The usual cycle of things as the title suggests 5 trades 5 losers for a total of -46.

Very disappointed with myself this week as so many mistakes have slipped in this week that I did well to block last week maybe I was lazy or rested on my laurels I don't know what the deal is but it's not good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

So to begin with where it went wrong. I was not prepared at all for the day ahead did not look at the charts until 5 minutes before my first trades, traded at a time I am not keen on and try to avoid (first half hour) Entered 11 points to late on first trade with stop to tight (should have been 21 which is too much instead I had 10 which is/was not enough)


Second trade was right after first trade was stopped and for lack of a better expression the lights were on but no one was home, thought as it was under red line it was now broken and rejecting and was going to move down again stop was also to tight.

90 seconds between first entry and second stop which is madness and if I carry this attitude into my business I deserve the results I get. I'm going to have to revisit my rules about getting ready prior to the start of the day and give a little thought about how to focus more during the day, ex. I need to get more sleep during the week, I need to have a better routine prior to getting set in front of the screens, increase my alertness basically all the good stuff but at the end of the day this has been a terrible performance the worst in a long time and I need deal with this sharpish.

Have a good weekend
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 Gozilla 
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Just a quick note, Now at my day job so I am not in a position to do any trading this week or over the next two weeks so I'm out of the market until the end of the month.

I have had some time to cool down after last weeks performance and taken the time to mull over what happened, I'm also giving a lot of thought about the week previous to last where things seemed to fall into place and at the minute I think there is a big difference in approaches between the two weeks even though it did not seem like it at the time.

Going forward my focus is going to be on reassessing my trading plan and how I approach the day so that I am in the best frame of mind and prepared for the trading day ahead.

I'll update with thoughts over the coming weeks so nothing exciting to see here.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Finally back on Terra firma and now back in a position where I can watch and get involved with the markets and put some of my thoughts from the last 3 weeks into practice. I was unable to look at any charts for the duration of my absence and after watching yesterdays action could not help but feel a little lost, but it always seems to take a couple of days to get my eye in so its going to be slow and steady until I feel a little more comfortable with what I'm looking at.

I have had 3 weeks to think over a lot of things, starting off with the 2 last trading weeks I had where the last week of June was a good week and the first week of July was a bit of a disaster as far as I am concerned.

To start on June, I went into the week imposing a lot of rules on how I was going to trade as part of an experiment to try and avoid some of the mistakes I had made in the previous weeks (this is where the journal came in handy) so this limited the setups I could take. I was also going to in a sense force myself to take the trades or act with conviction. I had strict rules on what I was allowing myself to trade in terms of setups and this forced me to think a bit more on my analysis and define more clearly what I was doing.

What am I looking at: Is it a pattern I can trade, is it support, resistance a trendline or channel.
How should I trade it: Do I trade initial break or the retest, do I wait for confirmation or get in on a touch of a line.
Where should my orders be: Do my targets and stops make sense do they line up with the what and the how do they come within my overall plan?

Whilst my results for the week were not stellar they were a step in the right direction, having a plan of attack on each trade and defining my actions made it a lot easier to take the trades once they came to fruition and when I did have a loser it did not feel that bad as I feel I accepted the risk as part of the plan.

And now onto July, Forget whats above fly by the seat of your pants it'll be fine. This pretty much sums up my approach I think my head was out of the game with the break midweek for July 4th holidays and the fact I was in the last few days prior to going back to work, so at this point was not focused squarely on the task at hand and the results showed. A motto from work is very fitting here. Fail to plan, plan to fail!

So all I get out of this is, Its all about the plan I am less worried about my TA and more concerned with the psyche side of trading, I need to get a better grasp of understanding why I do what I do when it conflicts with what I know I should be doing.

That's enough thinking for now.
Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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So not a whole lot of posting over the last few days but there has not been all that much to post about so I'm going to keep this one short and sweet. I think I may have spoken to soon when I said in my last post I was not as worried about my TA now as I was in the past.

4 trades since my last post with a 100% fail rate which I think takes me up to 10 losers in a row, I'm finding it very difficult to make out whats going on and whilst there have been opportunities the last 4 or 5 weeks look like they have been very challenging. I find it hard going watching the price move to what I think is support, resistance or a trendline being clear in my mind on what I am going to do just to watch the price drift through and invalidate the trade.

I think I have forced the trades that I have taken since my last post they were not the greatest especially when I am struggling to work out what it is I'm looking at, So for the time being I need to exercise more patience and study more to try and understand what I'm dealing with.

On a side note, Charts for post 22 and 23 are MIA is there something I have missed lately?

Since last post -38 points

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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One trade today 1 loser but it's not all bad I think the markets have moved in a way that feels a little more familiar than what I have seen over the last couple of weeks.

Today's trading was hampered by my lack of confidence in my TA, it's not so much the losing streak I'm on, I feel I have struggled to get into "IT" if that makes any sense.

I also need to be more consistent in my journal so if I come across this situation again which I'm sure I will, I can use the journal to see how I went about tackling and hopefully overcoming this obstacle.




-13
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 Gozilla 
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Another day another challenge, One trade for yesterday and that has been it so far this week.

Took a short entry playing it off the descending trendline , results aside I don't think it was the worst trade unless there was something I was missing, price breached the line slightly and as I saw a little rejection shorted with the intention of sticking with it down to about 405. Price did not seem to reject like the other times and after 10 minutes I really wanted to flatten as I had no confidence in the trade but I still had to let it run it's course in the event it did go as planned.

1. Thought about buying in this area but thought it would come a little lower so missed the trade.

It has been a really long time since I have been this light on trades, I mark off areas of interest and wait only to see price stop well short of the area or slowly meander through. I'm also not used to trades taking so long to prove me wrong, I have the opportunity to get out for a few ticks in most trades but it's not my intention to take a trade on the premise that I will exit after it moves 4 or 5 ticks.

We will see how the rest of the week pans out, I will again be away for 2 weeks and I will have to consider during this time if I am going to make a tactical withdrawal back to paper trading or wait and see if things are more visible.



-10
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 Gozilla 
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You wait all day for a bus then two come at once springs to mind just now.

After 14 losers in a row things finally seem to have gone to plan, well. The last 14 also went to plan they just happened to hit their stops so I guess the streak is over, not the longest I've had but I'm not really trying to set any new records here.

Trade 1: Watched the lows marked off on my last post but as price blew past considered the low from the 11th, price did move through a little but it wont always be perfect. Entered off what I considered a rejection but was a little slow off the mark Long @15291 Stop @15280 Target @15320.
Price rallied to 306-309 and seemed to hesitate after a short period of time started to consider that the lows mentioned earlier may have been having an influence on price. (once support now resistance) At this point after seeing a max run up of 18 ticks decided to move stop to +4 which still gave it room but protected some profit, Price dropped and was stopped out.

Moving stops has been an issue in the past but I felt that it was justified in this case, Seeing price struggle at an area that had been noted as a potential turning point earlier I felt I had to act with the information at the time, the fact price eventually got to target without threatening original stop is besides the point I don't know whats going to happen next I can only plan what I'll do next.

Trade 2: Much clearer trade, established channel and waited for price to hit the upper trendline. Once candle at line closed entered order to short at market @15152 went short with a stop @15163 and a target @15125. Not a whole lot to think about or do on this trade and turns out to be one of the bigger trades since journal inception. Wish they could all be this straight forward.


Since last post +31
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 Gozilla 
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It has been a while since my last post and there has not really been a whole lot to report, between the summer doldrums, work and work related training I have not had a lot of time to sit down and watch the markets like I'm used to.

I have also struggled to stay motivated to trade as it's tough when I do have time to spend the day watching the market and nothing happens, it kind of feels like a wasted day. Sure I can make something happen with one small click but that would undermine my whole plan and approach and I cant let that happen.

Anyway, update since last post: 3 trades 2 losers 1 winner for a total of -1 ticks

The last trade is the only one of the 3 that I took a screenshot of and conveniently its the winning trade.

The idea was to short the retest of the break in the trendline at around 620 but a couple of minutes prior to this and for a couple minutes after I was not paying attention to the price and this on its own is not good enough but I still entered albeit 10 ticks too late which meant I had to have a wider stop which was far from ideal which may have caused me to move my stop rashly once price went in my favour.

Target was based off last touch of trendline possibly giving it a bounce and whilst I considered 560 as my prefered target I had to be honest with myself, realistically if after being up 18 points and seeing price come back to entry I would have panicked out for a couple of ticks, hence the reason I stuck with 590 and I'm happyish with the result.

Overall I think it was a decent trade plan for this trade but I'm disappointed in my execution and lack of attention but its something I can improve on at least.

As for the DOM pic I noticed a lot of orders on the buy side, now I always take it as false advertising but in the short term price still reacts a little, how much credibility can you give it and should you allow yourself to be influenced by these numbers?

Gozillla

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  #33 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Two trades today and two losers for the effort, I'm not too worried about the first trade but the second trade of the day I am a little disappointed and think my lack of patience may have led to a mistake.

1. Took a long @15314 anticipating a triple bottom at the low point of a range from 15305 to 15365, whilst top of range was in the area of 15365 previous touch of support led to a move up to 15350 so that was my target price with a stop just below the lows from yesterday. Trade failed and stop hit.

2. Price seemed to stall as I waited for price to reach 15365 area, made my move when price seemed to top out at 15359 took it as close enough and shorted @15351 target was bottom of range @15305 stop @15359 in hindsight it should have been at least a tick higher so that was a mistake I should have amended immediately but I dithered a little.

So, first trade I can take as a loser it just did not work out. The second trade however is a bit of a struggle and my timing was iffy at best. I over thought it and assumed that price was struggling to make it higher, whilst the possibility of it actually getting to 15365 was on my mind for an ideal entry I took the trade on at 15351 and it failed.

This brings up something that I often struggle with, when price is moving to an area for an entry or an exit but stops or hesitates short of the ideal price I feel almost forced to take the trade on, on terms that are not entirely of my own making. I often wait for price to get to entry but it stalls and then moves to target or I enter and watch price move to ideal price which means carrying a stop that ends up being bigger than it could have been if I waited, and whilst jumping the gun can at times pay off it exposes me to a little more risk than I need to take. Ideally with my entry being where it is a stop should have been north of 15365 it may have been hit but its all hindsight now.

I need to remind myself to be patient and take the trades on my terms and not to fear missing an opportunity as there will be plenty more in the future to take advantage of.

Gozilla -19


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 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
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Trading tired can lead mistakes and emotions taking the hot seat for the duration of the trade, today was a good example of this and as a result of letting my emotions take over I over managed a position and missed out on a potential target hitting trade.

Took trade short off touch of trendline that has been in effect since the 19th also coming into horizontal resistance at 15300 (see last post). Entry was a little late @15288 with a target @15255 and a stop at the recent highs @15304. For a while I thought I was going to get stopped out as price seemed to be holding the line at the time I really wanted to close it out ahead of stop. However, I left it alone and eventually moved to a positive footing then dropped to 13271.

As price stalled in this area I noticed the red line support and it threw me a little, My thoughts were: It's come to a short term rising support, it struggled to move away from the falling and horizontal resistance, it did not get very far before hitting a bump this may be a potential move back to 300 and a break to the upside. Also after being up 17 ticks I did not want to take a loss on the trade and as I had convinced myself it was only going up moved my stop to 15281 and got taken out.

In hindsight my fear of losing profit clouded my judgement. I over analyzed what I was seeing as I believe that the descending resistance over 6 days and the resistance at 15300 would have had more effect than an intraday support, I could have afforded to let the the trade run its course but my emotions got too involved in the decision making process.

Gozilla +7

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 Gozilla 
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Two trades today 1 winner, 1 loser.

1. Went long just after open as price rallied, stalled and created a bull flag. My entry was based on price breaking higher @15272 with a stop under the lows @15262 and even though I thought price could go a little higher to 12305 was ok to set the target @12300. Target hit.
I struggled to keep my hands off the trade as it unfolded and had to keep reminding myself to let it play out as planned prior to taking it on, at most I kept a trailing stop at the lows two candles back and it seemed to work out ok this time.

2. Trade idea was a head and shoulder pattern, the second shoulder was a little messy and my entry short was a little haphazard at best entry @15215 stop @15226 and a target decided by head to neckline which was 100 points putting the target at around 15120. Stop hit.
I think I got a little carried away in my idea of the pattern and then traded it poorly, Ideally I should have waited for a cleaner break of the neckline and either an orderly retest of the neckline or a flag pattern of some description. Either way the trade failed and as price seemed to spend as much time as it did at the neckline, going long in that area with stops at or below the lows could have been a consideration.

Gozilla +17

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 Gozilla 
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Now back and in a position to participate in the markets. No trades since last update but ended positive after costs for the month of September, a rare occurrence but one I feel I can make more common in the future.

The last six weeks have given me time to think about my trading and the changes I have made and noticed since the start of this journal, I am starting to see the benefit of recording my thoughts, tracking my trades and the reasoning behind the decisions I make. Whilst I will never know it all about trading I can at least say that I have developed a much better understanding of why I do what I do and so continue to work on the issues that have hindered my decisions since I first dipped my toe in the markets.

In general I feel less fearful when I am in a trade and more reliant on my trade plan to see the trade through to fruition. I may of course struggle to stay hands free for the duration as new information that comes onto screen can give you pause for thought and may alter your perception of an ongoing trade but for the best part I am more comfortable when in a trade as the decisions are made prior to entry.

I am now looking at trading other things besides the YM as days can often go by without being able to see a trade, whilst this helps exercise patience I feel I am potentially missing opportunities elsewhere and for this reason I have started to look at the NQ and 6B (low tic value) nothing is set in stone yet though these are just ideas I am looking at for the time being.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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One trade today, a few observations made and a couple of opportunities missed.

1. Took trade on assuming that it was a breakdown and retest of that break, I would like to have seen a slightly bigger move through but it'll do, Price seemed to pull back from trendline and I took this as a signal to enter with entry @15174 and a stop above the high of the proceeding candle @15185 targets set at red horizontals on charts with the overall idea that price could move to the lower part of the larger channel. Unfortunately price still had a little bit to go and it moved to stop and I was out.

I'm really not sure about it, what happened in terms of price movement after I was stopped out does not have much relevance or at least it shouldn't but I have been thinking alot about it. I felt price had peaked and was on it's way down which explains entry, Stop was above the highs at the trendline so I think it was ok but my struggle is maybe it was a little tight, lines are rarely perfect and price will pierce them a little. On the other side at what point does a wider stop become a bad stop if my stop was at 90 and price hit 91 would I still ask this question and if the price moved back into channel and onward to upper trendline I think I would be questioning my reason for entry.

I think it's fine but I may need to consider giving trades a little leeway when testing trendlines or even consider reentry if a better price presents itself.

A. Was watching the trade unfold but was not keen on placing a trade early on and was also a little distracted creating previous post, It's a long way to 15260 and I think I may have bailed out if there was any decent pullbacks after price breaking 15200 (psychological number)

B. Explained on chart, returned to line after failing to make much progress to upper portion of channel and did so in a reasonably short period of time, also pierced the line to me even though there is still potential for upside I am becoming more bearish and feel a stronger move down is on the cards.

C. Just support from A and B lining up as resistance for C price gave it a few hits in the mid 50's but failed to pass I thought about it but mentally I had thrown in the towel for the day so was happy (as I can be) to watch the trade play out.

No considerations for longs at 100 as I am prepared for price to hit lower trendline.

If the trade had worked I have no idea if I would have rid it down, most likely outcome would have been for a trailing stop to get tagged in the mid 50's but I am a work in progress and I like to think I could have the patience to let it run a little more.

I am trying to get myself into the zone where I would take on A, B and C even with B being a little sketchy the potential today was huge.

Gozilla -11


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 Gozilla 
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Whilst I primarily trade the YM I missed a good opportunity an hour after open then price seemed to meander and I started to think more about NQ and 6B and so watched those as well as YM.

1. 6B in particular gave a number of possibilities which for the best part I passed on except for one. With price approaching lows from 9-10 and 15th was looking for a possible long but was hesitating given the drop to it and whilst procrastinating like I do price dropped below support, now I was looking at a retest and a short. Decided to take it despite price coming back above and entered short @1.5909 with a stop @1.5918 however my target was not so clear, I could see possible support at around 1.5885ish but I was looking for a larger move down. With uncertainty about target trailed my stop and eventually got hit @1.5896

2. NQ watched price breakout and retest and continued to keep an eye on it but like the YM after the move it seemed to meander alot, eventually the trendline came into play and went long thinking it might go to new highs however thought that 75-76 may offer a struggle so opted to set target at 3275.

I think I might be jumping the gun a little by getting involved with other instruments so soon, but I have been paper trading them for a while and I convinced myself that I was only trading the patterns and what I was trading was less relevant even though I'm sure each has it's own little nuances the patterns presenting themselves could be taken from any instrument or time frame.

Still need to work on my conviction and level of attentiveness during the day, Rest of my thoughts are on the charts.

Gozilla 6B+13 NQ+14




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 Bermudan Option 
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Digging the trendline trading. Gonna take a look throughout the journal when I get a chance. Subscribed

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 Gozilla 
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Three trades today 1 winner on the YM and a loser each on the YM and NQ this might be a big post

YM to start off with.

1. Looked to short off of perceived resistance at around 15225 and after price spiked through and closed near it's lows took an entry as price broke under candle, Entry @15220 with a target on the larger trendline at the time @15190 and a stop above the highs @15231. Trade seemed to be working and managed to resist the temptation to get too hands on as price see-sawed but as price hit 200 and stalled I was less confident of continuation and so moved my stop to 15212 still leaving it with room but it was taken out none the less for a small gain.

2. Price broke above resistance based on yesterdays support and again though testing my patience and stop started to move on the right direction entry @15258 Stop @15248 whilst upper horizontal was what I was thinking about I set target @15290. Price seemed to get stuck at 15270-71 and I stepped in and moved stop under the assumption that it may not be following through stop moved to 15254 got hit and out of the trade. More on this later

3. NQ: Ugh lots on this but we will focus on the trade right now, Looking at a head and shoulder formation so took a trade on the break of the neckline, Entry @3283 Stop@3285 and a target down at earlier support @3277 leaving a point on the table.

Thoughts on trades, May of underestimated the effect of a round number in 200 on trade one as earlier price movement breezed past it with little effort but I reacted to it at the time reasonably I think. As for the second trade I was impatient and I think the main deciding factor in moving my stop was not to take a full hit that would put me negative at this point in time the channel was not noticed, a bit of a downer to see it get to target whilst original stop still intact but I made a decision I'll live with it. On the last trade I did not have the red trendline drawn at that point in time wick to wick body to body or wicks and bodies you dont tend to see them until after the fact, this line may have affected my decision.

The analysis: Missed some glaringly obvious trades today with one on the YM and a couple between NQ and 6B, when it comes to trendlines I need to experiment with placement and watch price at those levels to see if there is any reaction that I can take advantage of.

Gozilla YM+4 NQ-8



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 Gozilla 
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Two trades for friday one winner on the YM one loser on NQ.

1. YM Entered long off horizontal support (former resistance on 16th) and touch of lower part of channel. Entry @15313 stop @15304 with a target based on where the upper channel was at the time @15340. Its a little messy for sure how I did this eventually though after price rallied to 336 it started to pull back and I made the move to protect some of my gains by moving stop, At the same time I was moving target based on upper trendline but alas adjusted stop got hit and I was out @15325.

2. NQ Another trade based off trendline but I think in hindsight this was a very poor trade, I dont really like taking trades on at open as I often get shaken out and also I think I was getting a little ahead of myself. Entry @3320 Exit 3317.75 Target best described as more ( trendline play). Inevitably stopped out, now the part the bothers me, I think I was cocky on this. A few times this week I have noted my reluctance to get involved on trendline plays because price is dragging on the line and not really making a move away at previous touches, but here I am taking a trade on a trendline that has existed for four hours, has dragged on the line and has not made any meaningful move away from said line yet I felt I was onto something. The market doesn't care about what I feel, I had the facts right in front of me but chose to be blind to them so I got what I had coming.

Thoughts: I've had time to stew over all this and think about what I am trying to do. I finished the week off positive which is always welcome but I have failed to make the best of the opportunities I have identified. A few of my trades hit adjusted stops despite being good for target I have hesitated alot and made decisions that were based on emotion rather than fact and my level of attention has suffered throughout the week which has caused me to either miss trades or make poor trades.
Moving on I need to consider a target or stop mentality, I have been moving stops around too much lately and yes it has stopped me taking losses it has at the same time stopped my from hitting targets. I need to deal with my hesitation, control my emotions and improve my level of attention.

Gozilla YM+12 NQ-9


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 Gozilla 
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Two trades one loser and one winner.

1. First trade was on the NQ the long red trendline plotted over the last couple of trading days was finally broken and as price approached the break price I decided to look at a short with the recent low as an initial target. Entry @3355 Target @3348 Stop @3357.25, Trade failed... it just failed. Maybe there was an opportunity to re-enter when price touched trendline but being unsure if it was an overall false break I decided to play it cautious and sit out.

2. Took trade as price came into contact with the trendline also established over last few YM charts, I did have a little concern as the last touch blew through the line but I still felt after watching the price that it might still have some influence. Entry @15310 Stop @15300 (a little tight) Exit @15350. Whole idea was that price could move quite a bit higher like previous touches and with that in mind I may have overlooked possible resistance in the mid 40's. After price moved to the mid 40's I moved my stop to 318 keeping it under the small are of consolidation thinking that if it broke back there the trade would probably fail and go further.

So, my approach this week is to try and stick onto trades a little longer and hold off on hitting panic stations anytime price pulls back a little. I think I gave trade two good space to develop and I tried to hold onto the trade based on the idea that it would go further and onto new highs and this bias may have helped me misjudge the mid 40's as resistance, I think in the case of my adjusted stop it was reasonable I did give a lot back and my original stop is still safe but with price still dragging on the trendline and not really pulling away from it I am looking at shorts as an option for the next day of trade.

With a slight tweak in mind for the rest of week in terms of trying to see trades through to target I expect things to get a little bumpy as I challenge some of my old habits. And it will be important to record whats going on so I can compare them to last week when I saw a lot of good opportunities but failed to maximize them.

Gozilla NQ-9 YM+8


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 Gozilla 
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Three trades one winner and two losers.

1. YM bear flag setup, with price dropping fast I was looking for any stall as a potential bear flag and with that stall happening between 390 and 405 entered a short sell order to be triggered if price hit 390 again. Target I had in mind was price area prior to ramp up to 459 which put my target @15360. Trade triggered Entry @15390 Stop @15406 Target 15360, price quickly moved to target but stopped a tic short of the mark. I was not surprised to see a little support but I still panicked maybe a little and wanting to protect some of the gains moved my stop to 375 where I got taken out of the trade. Note: Target hit with original stop intact.

2. NQ bull flag, price rallied then stalled above the previous high so looked for a continuation of the move up with the latest break of the trendline in mind for the target. Entry @3360.50 Stop @3357.50 Target @3369. Trade seemed to be working out for a short time then the tide changed and as price moved back to entry I tightened stop a couple of ticks to 3358 and was out.

3. YM H&S setup, Works when I don't take it fails when I do, This was a trickier trade and I think one I should have avoided. Head and shoulder formation which on its own is not the issue but the long running trendline was coming back into play at the neckline I was conflicted on how to play it. I played it wrong and stuck with the H&S with an entry short when price went below original breakout @15368 Stop @15381 and a target @15310. After seeing initial profit noticed price bounce a little off 360 then as it hit the high 50s and bounce again moved my stop tighter with the concern that this was now in fact a trendline play, Stop moved to 15376 where I was hit.

Trade three has given me the most to think about, Two ideas came together to conflict with one another yet I chose to do something rather than choosing to do nothing which in this case would have been the better option.

The whole point of working to achieve consistency is to trade well not trade a lot.

Gozilla YM+7 NQ-10


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 Gozilla 
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One trade one loser on the YM after watching for a couple of hours after first trade decided it was not a day for trading.

1. Price dropping from recent highs at quite a rate of knots and so like yesterday waited for a stall in price to place a short order once price resumed direction and broke lower. Trade triggered with an entry @15320 Stop @15330 and a target @15305, I think I should be looking at trades that will potentially offer more ticks as I have a habit of bailing early and in hindsight it was in an area of support so I could have left it.

Once I exited the trade I was looking over a few instruments but all I could make out was chop, so to save myself from doing something stupid shut it down for the day.

Gozilla -10

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 Gozilla 
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Two trades two losers one on the YM and the other on 6B.

1. YM. Much the same as yesterday, Price moving around a lot in what I thought was the beginning of a range with highs around mid 20's to 30's and a low in the high 80's. As price was hanging around 15430 decided to go short with a stop above the previous highs. Entry @15431 Stop @15439 and Target @15390. Stopped out.

2. 6B. Price came into a trendline and seemed to stutter a little and rather than wait for some kind of rejection I jumped in on the touch as a few trades this week have developed with stops too wide for me to take on the trade. Entry @1.6189 Exit @1.6195 Target down @1.6144 and again stopped out. In hindsight entry on trade might have been on the rejection of 200 but that's hindsight for you.

Starting to get a little frustrated now, I can feel myself wanting to retreat back to the comfort of just aiming for 10-20 ticks regardless of how much I think price is really going to move. In my mind this is a step in the wrong direction, things were going to get bumpy as I tried to keep my hands off the trades and let them run, I will need to persevere a little longer with this as a week is not really enough to come to any conclusions.

Gozilla YM-8 6B-6



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 Gozilla 
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No trades today and even though there is still a little time left to go I think I'll call it quits and that means I finish the month negative.

Though I did not trade today it does not mean there were no trades on offer, I have allowed my recent results to affect my thinking and as a result I hesitated and missed at least one trade that would have put me at a high in terms of P&L. This reinforces my idea that I have to take every opportunity I identify as long is it is within my rules and I can be clear in my plan for the trade at hand.

Trades I spotted are discussed on chart all I can say is I choked more than I should have today and ended up frustrated to a point that it would have been a bad idea to continue trading.

Looking over my trade activity in terms of P&L I think I have given far too much profits back with a few of the trades I have undertaken, I need to assess my management from being too harsh to too slack but it might be situation dependent so I'll need to refine my overall strategy when it comes to how or when to get involved with the trade. A target or stop approach is a strategy but with some trades I just lose confidence if the action does not follow through so I think it is reasonable at times to move the stops tighter.

Also as noted a couple of posts back the trades you take fail, the ones you don't work... Shakes ma heed,

I'll again have two weeks away to gather my thoughts and will see what I come up with over that time, but I think for now I will continue to work on seeing my trades through to target as those that do make a huge difference to the bottom line.

Gozilla




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 ratfink 
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Gozilla View Post
Also as noted a couple of posts back the trades you take fail, the ones you don't work... Shakes ma heed,

That's why we have to take them all. If if find a trade painful to take it is about 3X more likely to work than the shabby easy ones I throw in.

Travel Well
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 Bermudan Option 
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Tough break man. Really like the introspection and self awareness. I think that it is just a temporary setback but once you get yourself centered again you'll be profitable on a consistent basis again. Looking forward to your next daily breakdown

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 Gozilla 
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Back from two weeks of isolation from the markets and I've had plenty of time to think things over.

I am going to continue along the vein I left off from in trying to let trades run their course more but I need to manage the ones that are X points up then come back to entry, Say once a trade has run to 25-30 ticks profit moving a stop that prevents me losing more than 50% of the gains. This was an issue on some of my trades in my last post but over the next two weeks I will experiment with management a little more to try and protect some of the gains I will potentially make. Of course some of this experimentation will involve a more hands free approach.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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One trade today on the 6b and I'm calling it quits as I am too tired to continue as I have come off night shift and still adjusting.

1. Took trade as price hit an established trendline that had developed over the last couple of trading days, price hit trendline and the next candle failed to push higher so I entered as price broke below that second candle. Entry @1.5935 with a stop @1.5942 which was a tick above high and a target price @1.5900. Stop hit.

Thoughts: Its that same old thoughts as usual, price was not really making a lot of effort to move away from the trendline and after a couple of candles I was not entirely convinced the trade was going to work out. Despite this I was going to leave it alone as I was unsure I could make a good decision on the fly.

Screenshot taken right after trade failed as I want to see how it plays out rather than look back in hindsight.

Gozilla 6b -7


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 Gozilla 
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Going to make it a short update with a longer post to follow after this.

Since last post had 4 trades with 3 losers and one profitable trade, I am really struggling to make out what is going on when I look at the charts of the contracts I trade. I really hate being away the way I am as I just cant follow whats going on and it feels like 1 step forward 1 step back and that I need to get my eye in which can take a few days.

Alas enough of the moaning, My 3 losing trades will be described on the charts, my last trade is below.

4. YM trade, Decided to go long off of the trend line even though it had just crossed below an area of potential support which may become resistance on a retest. Price initially rejected trend line so took an entry as price moved above candle @15816 Stop @15807 with a target @15844 (shy of the previous high).

This trade to an extent feels like a failure, I over managed it to death, with price failing to clear 823 and hanging onto the trend line for so long again as is often the case I got far too involved and started to mess with my targets and stops. Eventually I put in an order for a trailing stop order to trigger at +20 and trail by 10 but I could not even leave this alone and once price rallied to 832 I manually trailed and got stopped at 824. Target hit original stop still good.

Gozilla YM+3 NQ-17


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 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
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As I harped on in my last post about my inability to see anything it does not mean the trading world is devoid of opportunities waiting to be taken advantage of. Whilst YM is my primary contract of choice with 6B and NQ following along closely, I still like to keep an occasional eye on other contracts especially when I'm struggling to see whats what and I want to know if it's just me or the market I'm looking at.

There seemed to be a lot of opportunities that looked a lot more clear cut than the ones I was trying to make happen but my rules stopped me from getting involved with them and besides the rules some of the trades presented me with a hard choice of potentially being stopped for the day on one trade even with a tight stop if it failed.

If I was consistently profitable I would consider increasing my daily loss limit but as it stands I wont be doing this anytime soon as it would be foolish to widen my stops when I struggle to have days that are equal or beyond my stops in terms of profit, but I can still sit on the sidelines and watch though.

Gozilla




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 Gozilla 
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What a disaster, That's me stopped out for the day 4 1/2 hours prior to market open and I am raging at the reason for it.

Its 1 trade but 2 if it makes any sense and I will have to explain what went wrong.

6B. Price had come back to a trend line as shown in chart and after a couple of minutes I got my entry signal, Entry @1.6056 Stop @1.6046 and a target at highs @1.6095.

After a couple of minutes trade seemed to falter, I was not too worried about my stop but felt my target was maybe not that great so wanted to keep it at the descending trend line coming from the recent highs. As I clicked on the DOM to drag and drop my order I heard that ding that lets you know something has happened, for a split second I thought my stop had been hit but to my dismay a new target and stop popped up telling me that I had added to my position.

I could not work out what I had done, but as I tried to figure it out my first trade was taken out and the second position got hit to the tick surprise surprise and price seemed to instantly go to initial entry. Obviously I expressed my disgust theatrically using my keyboard as a prop.

I am very frustrated with how the week has turned out, I think my expectations during my absence balloons out of proportion and as a result when things don't go to plan I react poorly to it. I'll use the weekend to think about changes like whether or not to trade prior to open and avoiding the first 30 minutes as clearly things have not worked at all well this week.

I can only judge a situation by the results 6 trades 5 losers 1 winner.

Gozilla 6B-16

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 Gozilla 
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1 trade today and 1 loser with the trade being on the YM.

1. With price coming onto the trend line I was looking for price to make a bounce and proceed to move to highs for a target between 895-995 or an exit based on trend line being broken. Entry @15968 Stop @15958 Target already noted. Stopped out.

Thoughts, a little frustrated but in fairness I think its one I could have avoided, more of my trades of late have had shorter targets than what I have been used to and this one offered 20 ticks if that if the highs were resistance, there was a possibility it could keep going on following the lines but by this point I felt it was showing a little weak with the second high being lower than the first and coming back to the line so soon after the last near touch.

THE NQ, ugh I did it again, Spent all day watching it. Most of what I though is on the chart I had to leave my screens as price came to first possible entry, whilst entry price was met I might have struggled to take it on as it would have required a wider stop that would have tested me a bit and as there were a few pullbacks prior to target I have to ask myself. Would I have held to target?

The second trade and the one that hurt the must, I was overly reliant on my alerts to do the job of keeping an eye on it, I had multiple errors in my service log relating to time stamp or something that sounds like that so not sure if this had a part in my alerts failing to go off. With price flagging below support it was exactly how I planned out my short approach on this trade and the target was just nearest point of interest.
The way price got to target is a rare feat and I doubt I would have found much in the way of reasons to get out once the move was under way but even I can surprise myself so who knows how I would have handled the situation.

Gozilla YM-10


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 Gozilla 
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Just a short one to see how my ideas work out and how I react to them live.

Gozilla



Two trades taken from these charts,
NQ price hit 1400 dropped and then rallied again took this as a bull flag entered long @1400.25 price dropped and stop was taken out -9.
YM price go to resistance about 15990 entered short @15984 with a target at 15955 almost flattened as price loitered between entry and stop @15994, price moved positive eventually and I panicked out on the bounce @15971 +13. Target hit stop still good will I ever learn!

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 Gozilla 
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Possible trade on the YM coming up, what will I do?

Gozilla

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  #57 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
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Made a few posts today as I wanted to track my ideas through to execution and see what changed by the time I completed a trade.

Today's results are not really any better for it but I have managed to get 6 trades in 4 losers and 2 winners, the main reason for the amount of trades is that I am trying to take in every one I identify but in some sense I feel I over did it a little.

All the trades are explained on chart, they are a little cluttered but I am a little more than frustrated and want to go shut it down for a bit so thought I would make a post while it was still fresh in my mind.

Gozilla YM +2 NQ -17
The NQ is a harsh mistress, I think I will have to strike this off my trade list as it always seems to get me when I do eventually take it on.



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 Gozilla 
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Long time no post, since last post I have had 1 trade which was on the ES and for loss of 6 ticks and that was the end of my trading days at home 11 November to 22 November.

Since then trading activity as far as futures are concerned has ceased as I was not all too happy with the way things were working, or more specifically how I was working. The effort of this period of time was to try and stay a lot more hands off when it came to my trades and whilst I achieved this to a large extent the results were dire to say the least not just in terms of P&L but in how I think about my approach to trading.

I had a win rate at 20% which has been the lowest it's ever been whilst I've traded futures, what bothered me the most was letting the failures hit my stop, it might seem weird to say my objective is to keep hands off, the majority of the failures held between my entry and stop for quite a considerable time (10-20mins) from what I'm used to, giving me all the time in the world to follow my gut instinct, but this was not about gut instincts it was not pleasant and I lost more money than I would have if I had listened to my gut but it was a learning experience none the less.

For me it reinforced the idea to bailout of a trade that is not doing or behaving how I anticipate and to wait for a better spot later, this of course will be at odds with giving a trade room to breathe and this conclusion might be influenced by another factor.

I think it's time to admit that my account size is increasingly influencing a lot of my decisions, taking profits to early, choking when trying to execute a trade even taking trades that are far from the best. At this moment in time I have neither the skill nor confidence to overcome this hurdle hence the cessation of trading activities in my futures account. I don't necessarily believe that funding an account more appropriately will suddenly resolve my issues there is something a little deeper than just the account size that's causing problems here.

As far as skill and confidence come into play, I have a few ideas that I plan to test out via chart replay. Once I have a few months (6 months +) testing it over a number of instruments and time frames I will hopefully be able to define more clearly a method for trading which I can take into live sim (result dependant) and see how I work under realtime pressures. Taking the time to establish, test, evaluate and retest is something I have neglected to do in the past as I have been too eager to trade and have often cobbled together a method that was not thoroughly tested prior to going live, This is the first thing I should have done prior to ever trading live.

There are some threads on another forum that have made me think about my method and how I am going to proceed forward, I've noticed a lot of things in my journal and had a lot of ideas that I have struggled to construct in a manner I can work with but these threads have joined a lot of the dots or at least how I understand them and I am very eager to see how what I come up with works.

It might seem doom and gloom but what I'm doing is not working to well and taking the time to go over my plan and method to ensure it is fit for purpose is the best thing I can do right now, once I'm home and have the time to go over my charts I'll try to define what I'm looking at for entries and exits and management of trade ideas.

Gozilla

On a side note, I'm testing psychology swing trading fx in a micro account and find it a little odd when I have so little to lose how indifferent I am as to wether the trade works or not I can only take the trade off S&R set my stops and targets and forget about it, I don't feel inclined to get involved as at most I'm risking .2% a trade and taking 3 of 4 trades a week.

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 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
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Gozilla View Post
Long time no post, since last post I have had 1 trade which was on the ES and for loss of 6 ticks and that was the end of my trading days at home 11 November to 22 November.

Since then trading activity as far as futures are concerned has ceased as I was not all too happy with the way things were working, or more specifically how I was working. The effort of this period of time was to try and stay a lot more hands off when it came to my trades and whilst I achieved this to a large extent the results were dire to say the least not just in terms of P&L but in how I think about my approach to trading.

I had a win rate at 20% which has been the lowest it's ever been whilst I've traded futures, what bothered me the most was letting the failures hit my stop, it might seem weird to say my objective is to keep hands off, the majority of the failures held between my entry and stop for quite a considerable time (10-20mins) from what I'm used to, giving me all the time in the world to follow my gut instinct, but this was not about gut instincts it was not pleasant and I lost more money than I would have if I had listened to my gut but it was a learning experience none the less.

For me it reinforced the idea to bailout of a trade that is not doing or behaving how I anticipate and to wait for a better spot later, this of course will be at odds with giving a trade room to breathe and this conclusion might be influenced by another factor.

I think it's time to admit that my account size is increasingly influencing a lot of my decisions, taking profits to early, choking when trying to execute a trade even taking trades that are far from the best. At this moment in time I have neither the skill nor confidence to overcome this hurdle hence the cessation of trading activities in my futures account. I don't necessarily believe that funding an account more appropriately will suddenly resolve my issues there is something a little deeper than just the account size that's causing problems here.

As far as skill and confidence come into play, I have a few ideas that I plan to test out via chart replay. Once I have a few months (6 months +) testing it over a number of instruments and time frames I will hopefully be able to define more clearly a method for trading which I can take into live sim (result dependant) and see how I work under realtime pressures. Taking the time to establish, test, evaluate and retest is something I have neglected to do in the past as I have been too eager to trade and have often cobbled together a method that was not thoroughly tested prior to going live, This is the first thing I should have done prior to ever trading live.

There are some threads on another forum that have made me think about my method and how I am going to proceed forward, I've noticed a lot of things in my journal and had a lot of ideas that I have struggled to construct in a manner I can work with but these threads have joined a lot of the dots or at least how I understand them and I am very eager to see how what I come up with works.

It might seem doom and gloom but what I'm doing is not working to well and taking the time to go over my plan and method to ensure it is fit for purpose is the best thing I can do right now, once I'm home and have the time to go over my charts I'll try to define what I'm looking at for entries and exits and management of trade ideas.

Gozilla

On a side note, I'm testing psychology swing trading fx in a micro account and find it a little odd when I have so little to lose how indifferent I am as to wether the trade works or not I can only take the trade off S&R set my stops and targets and forget about it, I don't feel inclined to get involved as at most I'm risking .2% a trade and taking 3 of 4 trades a week.

This is one reason I went to M6E. I had to get my trading down to a I don't care size. I needed to be able to execute the trade and not worry about how much I am risking and as well how much it will make.

The next step was create a plan for qualifying a trade, plan to execute the trade, a plan to manage the trade, and then a plan for loss. Once I got that down, then all I was doing is executing whatever plan was in place at the moment. Trying to take as much emotion or guess work out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I still have emotions during trades. But I have my plans printed off and on my desk, once emotions come in I check where I am and what I need to be doing.

One of the ways I got out of second guessing myself during a trade was setting my stops at levels where my trades are no longer valid. So that way if it hasn't hit my stop the trade is still in a position to work. If my stop is hit, I know that my trade failed, end of story. Look for next setup and start to qualify my entry. And as I have found over the last week, getting stopped out on my first trade of the day. That being able to take the second and third trade usually makes up the loss + some. The key is to trade at a size that your account can handle. And to trade small until you have worked your system and mind out. Then scale up once you are consistently profitable.

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 Gozilla 
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This is one reason I went to M6E. I had to get my trading down to a I don't care size. I needed to be able to execute the trade and not worry about how much I am risking and as well how much it will make.

The next step was create a plan for qualifying a trade, plan to execute the trade, a plan to manage the trade, and then a plan for loss. Once I got that down, then all I was doing is executing whatever plan was in place at the moment. Trying to take as much emotion or guess work out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I still have emotions during trades. But I have my plans printed off and on my desk, once emotions come in I check where I am and what I need to be doing.

One of the ways I got out of second guessing myself during a trade was setting my stops at levels where my trades are no longer valid. So that way if it hasn't hit my stop the trade is still in a position to work. If my stop is hit, I know that my trade failed, end of story. Look for next setup and start to qualify my entry. And as I have found over the last week, getting stopped out on my first trade of the day. That being able to take the second and third trade usually makes up the loss + some. The key is to trade at a size that your account can handle. And to trade small until you have worked your system and mind out. Then scale up once you are consistently profitable.

Hit the nail on the head, I may also do as you have done and print out my plan and keep it in line of sight once it is reviewed to refer to in times where indecision or emotion creeps in.

I think I lack confidence in my method hence the reevaluation, Once I take the time to test and evaluate the ideas I have and know them inside out I believe I will be much better off for it, It will be a time consuming effort but I'm kind of looking forward to the challenge.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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So its now been around 8-10 weeks since I last traded and I have had plenty of time to think things over. The thoughts are in no particular order, Method, Plan, Psychology.

My biggest problem has been my psychology (The one at the moment that rules them all) and allowing my emotions to take the wheel at critical points in my decision making process, this may always be something that I struggle with but it does not mean I will let it control everything.

Whilst I have had issues with entries my bigger issue looking over my journal has been with exits, I think it's fair to say that I have a tendency to exit given anything negative to my position happening to the price, I have to accept there will be a little rough with the smooth and I cant have it all my way so now I am assessing my method/plan that incorporates more reason than rhyme to my exit criteria.

As hinted in an earlier post anyone familiar with the straight line threads on another forum might have an idea of what I'm getting at with my charts to follow. Most of what I came across in those threads answered a lot of the questions I have had over the last year and explains things more clearly than I could come up with myself.

I wont pretend to be doing it the correct way I can only apply my interpretations of the information and judge the results for what the are.

When I could I spent a lot of time just watching price, no lines, no bias, no trading this was to try and tune into what price is doing now, sure you can project forward areas of support or resistance but it does not mean price will react this time like it did the other times, past performance is not indicative of future results springs to mind.

In the last week or so I have started to think about applying my interpretations to the market in a move see how things play out. And it's weird, it's cold chill down my spine weird when it just works and works well, BUT its sim and when there is money on the line I might blow a fuse again.

We had a sports psychologist at our work to give us coaching on mentality at work in regards to safety and how we make the decisions that we do, It was very applicable to trading and made me think that everything I do is a habit that gets stronger the more you do it, with poor trading decisions being a bad habit I may need to spend some time with a tweaked method and outlook to build a new habit and reinforce it with results, this will take time and it leaves me in a difficult spot, I can only really trade 9 days a month due to work and looking ahead with training I may be limited further, I am binge replay testing out of hours, and starting to sim live during RTH, but at what point do I test my steel?

Anyways, two examples of what I am looking at and trying to do examples to be posted as a reference for future use. These are done in hindsight.


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 Gozilla 
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Slight change to how my charts may look, Two trades taken with two winners BUT in hindsight there was only one trade. Once price hit highs I stopped trading as I was preoccupied and could not focus.

1. First price made a higher low after double bottom then broke a line, it proceeded to retrace, entered a stop buy order and moved it a little lower as price moved down, trade triggered and price breaks breakout highs, price then again retraces back to entry I would have, I think, exited on price breaking the pullback low, Price rallies fast and I exit.

EXIT: Absolutely no reason to exit I was overawed by the P&L and wanted to bank the money. Price continued to rally then consolidated at highs it then broke those highs bringing me onto trade two.

2. Entered on breakout of range, this was another mistake as I should have entered 3 bars later on the retest and again using entry technique used on first trade, Price rallies consolidates rallies again, I exit as price exits the range to the downside, which again in hindsight is poor as it is retesting the previous range it then rallies out to highs and breaks a swing high from the 3rd (red line) giving a more appropriate exit at around 94ish after a lower high forms.

There really was only one trade, had I been using what I have learned or at least what I think I have learned to use properly.

Gozilla NQ SIM +69


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 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
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So its now been around 8-10 weeks since I last traded and I have had plenty of time to think things over. The thoughts are in no particular order, Method, Plan, Psychology.

My biggest problem has been my psychology (The one at the moment that rules them all) and allowing my emotions to take the wheel at critical points in my decision making process, this may always be something that I struggle with but it does not mean I will let it control everything.

Whilst I have had issues with entries my bigger issue looking over my journal has been with exits, I think it's fair to say that I have a tendency to exit given anything negative to my position happening to the price, I have to accept there will be a little rough with the smooth and I cant have it all my way so now I am assessing my method/plan that incorporates more reason than rhyme to my exit criteria.

As hinted in an earlier post anyone familiar with the straight line threads on another forum might have an idea of what I'm getting at with my charts to follow. Most of what I came across in those threads answered a lot of the questions I have had over the last year and explains things more clearly than I could come up with myself.

I wont pretend to be doing it the correct way I can only apply my interpretations of the information and judge the results for what the are.

When I could I spent a lot of time just watching price, no lines, no bias, no trading this was to try and tune into what price is doing now, sure you can project forward areas of support or resistance but it does not mean price will react this time like it did the other times, past performance is not indicative of future results springs to mind.

In the last week or so I have started to think about applying my interpretations to the market in a move see how things play out. And it's weird, it's cold chill down my spine weird when it just works and works well, BUT its sim and when there is money on the line I might blow a fuse again.

We had a sports psychologist at our work to give us coaching on mentality at work in regards to safety and how we make the decisions that we do, It was very applicable to trading and made me think that everything I do is a habit that gets stronger the more you do it, with poor trading decisions being a bad habit I may need to spend some time with a tweaked method and outlook to build a new habit and reinforce it with results, this will take time and it leaves me in a difficult spot, I can only really trade 9 days a month due to work and looking ahead with training I may be limited further, I am binge replay testing out of hours, and starting to sim live during RTH, but at what point do I test my steel?

Anyways, two examples of what I am looking at and trying to do examples to be posted as a reference for future use. These are done in hindsight.


One way I have been thinking about making SIM more real is to have consequences for your actions when you trade sim. You don't follow your rules you don't go out to eat this week. Or whatever item you like to do that would be a punishment if you couldn't do it.

Now it won't be exactly like trading real cash, but you will be mindful that your actions have consequences.

(I am even looking at doing this when I go live, if I fail my plan then I will for go a luxury. Luckily I have a wife that will see to this. lol)

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 Gozilla 
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One way I have been thinking about making SIM more real is to have consequences for your actions when you trade sim. You don't follow your rules you don't go out to eat this week. Or whatever item you like to do that would be a punishment if you couldn't do it.

Now it won't be exactly like trading real cash, but you will be mindful that your actions have consequences.

(I am even looking at doing this when I go live, if I fail my plan then I will for go a luxury. Luckily I have a wife that will see to this. lol)

I have often thought about some kind of consequence to substitute for the loss of discipline when it comes to sim trading but it can be hard to chastise yourself when you stray from or completely break your plan and still have a positive result.

It's very easy to say it is a one off a gut shot or you were simply trying something different. I have been there more often than I care to admit and it's something that still finds a way of throwing a spanner in the works from time to time.

At the moment I am in the process of reconstructing my method and overall plan so everything is up for assessment but prior to this when I strayed accidentally or intentionally I'd shut it down and go think about what I've done, the reality in my mind is pretty clear, if I fail to take it seriously, fly by the seat of my pants and stray from the plan the further I will get from achieving my goals.

This brings me into the next part.

Since my last post it became very clear that my approach was not robust enough as my results became incredibly erratic with large swings in the P&L and I quickly realised that I needed a lot more practice in order to define better when to enter and exit a trade.

Some of the issues I encountered:

Giving back a large percentage of unrealised profit (failing to accept that direction had changed)
Trading chop (or failing to identify chop)
Trading without context (not looking at areas of support or resistance on higher time frames)
Holding onto trades that did not behave as planned (need to scratch them if direction is not clear)
And a lack of discipline and focus

It's not all bad though, things look promising and the practice has come in handy for constructing the method so I can better define it and what I'm doing, once I'm confidant with 1 or 2 set ups I'll move it into a proper sim scenario and see if it stands the test.

The whole point of this is to only move forward with ideas that have been tried and tested, I just need to keep reminding myself that putting in the time and effort now could make a huge difference later if I do it right.

Gozilla

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 tturner86 
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I have often thought about some kind of consequence to substitute for the loss of discipline when it comes to sim trading but it can be hard to chastise yourself when you stray from or completely break your plan and still have a positive result.

It's very easy to say it is a one off a gut shot or you were simply trying something different. I have been there more often than I care to admit and it's something that still finds a way of throwing a spanner in the works from time to time.

At the moment I am in the process of reconstructing my method and overall plan so everything is up for assessment but prior to this when I strayed accidentally or intentionally I'd shut it down and go think about what I've done, the reality in my mind is pretty clear, if I fail to take it seriously, fly by the seat of my pants and stray from the plan the further I will get from achieving my goals.

This brings me into the next part.

Since my last post it became very clear that my approach was not robust enough as my results became incredibly erratic with large swings in the P&L and I quickly realised that I needed a lot more practice in order to define better when to enter and exit a trade.

Some of the issues I encountered:

Giving back a large percentage of unrealised profit (failing to accept that direction had changed)
Trading chop (or failing to identify chop)
Trading without context (not looking at areas of support or resistance on higher time frames)
Holding onto trades that did not behave as planned (need to scratch them if direction is not clear)
And a lack of discipline and focus

It's not all bad though, things look promising and the practice has come in handy for constructing the method so I can better define it and what I'm doing, once I'm confidant with 1 or 2 set ups I'll move it into a proper sim scenario and see if it stands the test.

The whole point of this is to only move forward with ideas that have been tried and tested, I just need to keep reminding myself that putting in the time and effort now could make a huge difference later if I do it right.

Gozilla

Learning to read buying and selling pressure will help you to realize when a trade is turning and close it. When I first start I would do this a lot, I would be up $250 and then end up losing $250 because I didn't take the profit when it was there and didn't understand direction was changing. Now I watch when I am trading for both sides bear and bull and I will look to see if the opposite sides case is increasing. If it does and passes a tipping point then I will close the trade. I have no shame in taking profit off the table.

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 Gozilla 
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Just a post with more ideas I have been trying to define better over the last couple of weeks.

Gozilla



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 Gozilla 
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Made an effort to try and follow the market according to previous post to see how the day went. Went a little better to some extent but found myself over trading later on in the day, some thoughts don't occur until the dust has settled but hopefully if I keep tracking things I can work on them.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Trying again to stick to only exercising the trades as I see fit, most of the trades today were based off reversals, I think I struggled throughout the day to highlight areas of support and resistance which would give me a warning that something might happen.

Also found myself taking on trades where I may have been over eager to jump into the action, My mind wants to see something so it comes up with something.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Not a bad day got into a couple of trades that seemed okay but left me with some thoughts on their conclusions.

Felt my charts have been very cluttered of late, and I think I will try to keep the trades off of them for the time being, and leave my thoughts on the charts to give myself a record of what I was trying to do or thinking about at the time when I look back over them in the future.

To start with, as we approached open I tried to identify any support, resistance or trends that might offer a clue of things to come. The drop from yesterday was in a reasonably neat channel so we could pick up on that as price approached the extremes for potential trades. As far as horizontals, very short term support at 72.25 and resistance at 81 these are in the lead up to open and perhaps inconsequential, Also larger time frame 60 min lows from 13th February and 2nd March linking up to give a potential support in the low 60's (depending on the line followed).

1. Market bounces off support and rallies to resistance and channel extreme, price hits channel and fails it then has a second go at it and fails again as it does so my sell stop is triggered and I am short. Tracking the drop with a line, price drops through the earlier support goes a little lower before bouncing and breaking the line where I exit.

Thoughts, It's a bit of an issue, as price breaks support I am very much aware that it might act as resistance and that it is very likely price will revisit this area shortly after breaking it. I acted by my rule to exit on the line break but the question is.

Do I hold and wait and see or exit and re-enter if price fails to break back?

2. Price by now has hit the lower extreme and bounces, again, I wait for the retrace for an entry and as price fails to move lower my buy stop is triggered and I'm long, Same as before track the price upward exiting on a break.

Thoughts, Same as trade 1 thought about the high off the low being a possible resistance becomes support (RbS) once price broke over, I had to exit as per rule but I felt the target was the opposing extreme or earlier resistance. The same question arose and I seriously considered a re-entry but it was mid channel and by then not a whole lot of upside potential.

3. I was treating this as a break from the downtrend and was looking for a possible pullback continuation, price dropped and eventually rallied again my buy stop was a tick or two above the highs, price failed to follow through so I exited for a small loss, price then broke lower and it was at this point I felt there was indecision and that it would be safer to sit out until direction or range established.

My other thoughts after this point are on the chart.

Well, guess I have some thinking to do.

Gozilla



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 Gozilla 
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Due to appointments I was unable to do much with the 13th and by the time I could, the opportunity had passed me by, there will be others. As for the 14th I had appointments again and then spent most of the day familiarizing myself with another charting package.

I wanted to take the time to post notes on what to look at for future reference, these are more pointers and clues of things to keep eye on, This is an update to the second chart in my last post and what happened at a key point and what might be happening now.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Probably the best trade of the day was at the open to catch the rally, I missed this and decided to wait for things to settle down. As things settled I started to look for trades and found myself getting chopped up, after a couple of dicey trades I decided to sit out and wait again, eventually I traded again and with a little perseverance I got chopped some more.

Very bull headed of me today to think I can make something from not very much, I need to remember to stick to the basics, identify my spots and take them, and if its not working out to walk away as tomorrow is another day.

I'll post notes for the trade I missed and what I could do about it when it comes to exiting and what I can look at in terms of giving it room to stretch out a little.

Gozilla


YM chart for posterity same setup as NQ.

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 tturner86 
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Gozilla View Post
Probably the best trade of the day was at the open to catch the rally, I missed this and decided to wait for things to settle down. As things settled I started to look for trades and found myself getting chopped up, after a couple of dicey trades I decided to sit out and wait again, eventually I traded again and with a little perseverance I got chopped some more.

Very bull headed of me today to think I can make something from not very much, I need to remember to stick to the basics, identify my spots and take them, and if its not working out to walk away as tomorrow is another day.

I'll post notes for the trade I missed and what I could do about it when it comes to exiting and what I can look at in terms of giving it room to stretch out a little.

Gozilla


YM chart for posterity same setup as NQ.

What chart settings are you using (tick, range, etc)?

Days like today and Friday you have to determine it is a range day quickly. I did after about an hour, so when price came down to the 54 area I looked to buy, when it got up in the 60's I looked to sell.

But you are correct, you can not make something happen. You trade what you have, if it isn't there you wait till the next day. Just doing that and saving your money will add up in the long run.

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 Gozilla 
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What chart settings are you using (tick, range, etc)?

First chart is a 300 tick, recently updated SC and instead of tick it seems to refer to it as trades, Second chart is a 60 minute, I just rolled my charts so had to update the lines and the last chart is a 1 minute chart.

I tend to chop and change how I display the price during the day and find in higher volume areas tick can clear the noise up a little, but any decisions made or trades taken are seen through on the bar interval it was opened on.


tturner86 View Post
Days like today and Friday you have to determine it is a range day quickly. I did after about an hour, so when price came down to the 54 area I looked to buy, when it got up in the 60's I looked to sell.

I understand that price more often ranges than not, but Identifying the change in real time from a rally or drop to a sideways range intraday is something I have often struggled with, I need to keep an open mind to all eventualities.




tturner86 View Post
But you are correct, you can not make something happen. You trade what you have, if it isn't there you wait till the next day. Just doing that and saving your money will add up in the long run.

He who fights then runs away, lives to fight another day.

I think that's how the saying goes.

Gozilla

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 tturner86 
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First chart is a 300 tick, recently updated SC and instead of tick it seems to refer to it as trades, Second chart is a 60 minute, I just rolled my charts so had to update the lines and the last chart is a 1 minute chart.

I tend to chop and change how I display the price during the day and find in higher volume areas tick can clear the noise up a little, but any decisions made or trades taken are seen through on the bar interval it was opened on.



I understand that price more often ranges than not, but Identifying the change in real time from a rally or drop to a sideways range intraday is something I have often struggled with, I need to keep an open mind to all eventualities.





He who fights then runs away, lives to fight another day.

I think that's how the saying goes.

Gozilla

A thing to remember is a trend can start in a range, can be part of a range, or could end in a range. If you look at Thursday down trend ended in a range that lasted into Friday. Monday broke up then created a range sideways, and then today broke out into a trend that could become a range tomorrow. Breakout > Trend > Channel > Range. The market moves through though cycles.

The market moves in cycles, the quicker you can determine the phase you are in the better.

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 Gozilla 
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Feels like groundhog day, carbon copy of yesterday with the best trade being at the open, I did not take it as my attention was elsewhere and I often hesitate when taking trades at the open.

The only trade of note was yesterday's high being re-tested as support, once price bounced I traded as a flag and exited on the line break. After that I was in unfamiliar territory and struggling to work out what price was doing. Maybe I need to sit out after the opening hour or two.

Gozilla


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 Gozilla 
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Can't help but feel more than a little frustrated with myself with a day like this.

To start with the 60 min chart, What was I looking at as we went in to the open. A possible area of resistance from the highs of the 18th and 19th at around 3703, and lows from the 19th and 20th at around 3656, So its ranging for the time being.


Now I focus on a faster time frame to help make decisions at these areas of interest, I never seem to stick to one time frame in particular, I switch between the 1 minute and 300 tick most of the time. For this example I will use the 300 tick as it is where most of my decisions were made.

What do I see, A trending channel, My thoughts at this point right before open are. Price has hit the 60 minute resistance, It has gotten very close or probably as close as it is going to get the the upper trend line, so a drop from here based on those two factors is highly likely but as we approach the bell price has spent a couple of hours in a tight range, I want to see how it reacts to a break of this before I take on any trade.



Market opens, Price breaks up, now I think a possible retrace back to former resistance might be an opportunity for a long, but as I think this price runs into further resistance from the highs on 12th and 13th the 11th is also in that neighbourhood and this is also alongside the upper part of the channel which is being tested.

1. Price drops to the pre-open range and bounces, this bounce fails to get close the the opening high and as price begins to fall I short, But I am mindful that this pre-open range may offer support and I decide if price fails to break the previous low on the next test I am out. Price fails to break lower I give it a little time, perhaps too much then exit.

2. Price makes another attempt at the low at 3703.75 and again fails to get lower, it now pushes just past the previous high which leads to a slightly higher low, given that price is at support/resistance the balance could be swinging to support, I decide to go long as price comes off this higher low. About a minute later I am out as price fails to clear the high.

3. Price breaks lower, and then pushes through the pre-open range, I am now looking for a retrace to this range for a possible entry short, which I get but my entry is a little sluggish, 2 minutes later there is a 2 point spike which led to me mashing the exit button.

At this point as price drops I get a little tilted and elect to sit out, I have a rough idea of where price is heading so I can wait until it gets there, whilst I could re-enter, my confidence is not high and it would tilt me a little more to get in and watch price reverse on my entry as it often feels like it does.


4. After watching and waiting, price has finally moved to the bottom of the range or at least for this trade close enough, which is a mistake. At this point I am looking to go long and any excuse will do (lack of discipline, maybe a little tilted still). Best explained with chart, price broke down line put in a higher high then a higher low, long triggered but price failed to move higher, so again trade exited.

A little frustrated to allow my eagerness to get in the way, If I had tracked the drop I would have noticed the big black line tracking the move and may have waited until the area described on chart.



With support acting as support I now have to work out what might happen next. After a drop like this a bounce is likely to be more a bang than a whimper, So I look for areas of previous support/resistance for clues, I also use a fib retracement of the range to look at the midpoint. Support/resistance levels pulled from 300 tick trend at 3674.5 and the last touch on the support extreme at around 3680, which is also about the halfway point for the larger range.

Whilst I considered trading as price moved I was hesitant, I think I had made my mind up at this point where I was going to take the next trade and how I was going to do it, so I waited.

5. Price by now has for all intensive purposes hit the area that I am interested in, the 3rd swing high as only just breached the previous high, so I am calling it a double top, price moves to the trend line breaking it and then breaks the last swing low, it now bounces, this is the retracement I am looking for. The line at 3674.5 is not really a deciding factor, I am waiting for price to decline and trail a sell stop as price moves up, eventually the stop is triggered and the short is open, again I have an idea in my head as to what is going to happen and what I will do, so I start this post to stop myself from micromanaging the trade, I keep an eye on the swing highs in the drop as potential exit points and then let the line track the price. Price gets to target but as I think there is always a chance price could go lower I wait for the break of the line for an exit which does eventually come without giving too much back.


After this last trade I was done for the day, Partly as I was a little tired and partly I did not want to give anything back as it was not too bad a trade to end the day, even though I missed or messed up on the biggest trades of the day I think I thought my way through it a little better than I usually do.

Maybe I need to be more robust in my pre-market evaluation and plan the day out a little better.

Gozilla

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 ratfink 
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Gozilla View Post
Maybe I need to be more robust in my pre-market evaluation and plan the day out a little better.

Gozilla

No, you already draw some of the best lines on the board. I think you need to spend no more than an hour doing what you do and trade any two breaks or bounces of any of your lines and take 2:1 or stop-outs. I also spend way too much time on the analysis paralysis planet and it's better when I jump off. Just my 2p.

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 Gozilla 
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An hour and a half after open I felt compelled to record my thoughts on what has taken place so far today.

First things first, I did not really spend a lot of time looking at charts over the weekend as I kind of needed a break and there was not really a whole lot to do since the end of week, but I did have a few things to think about.

Price on my daily was breaching the mid point and I wondered if we would see price move to the extreme support trend line, so far it looks good for this.



The hourly chart has been a harder one to judge, I have kept my lines from previous posts but updated it also to take in the recent highs breaching this trend. The range break from Friday and subsequent retest was a terrible trade on my part and will be explained in a shorter time frame, in hindsight it looks so clear but that's all history now.



Going to put in the 300 tick and 1 min charts as I think they both offer pointers, I tend to leave multiday trend lines to time charts and intraday to tick charts as the lines will differ sometimes by quite a big margin.

The tick first, I think it was too fast for me today or I was too slow for it, nonetheless it still gave off a few good entries and exits.


The 1 minute chart is a little clearer to me today as it gives clearer reasons to stay in a trade once entered.

Despite all this I'm still down 14 ticks as I jumped in and out too quick but it has been good to watch what has been happening.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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I am starting to struggle when it comes to staying focused during the day and as result most opportunities pass in a blur as I try to react to what is happening.

Going to keep it to the charts, one chart of what I did do and one for what I should have done, which is hindsight and perhaps besides the point but I can refer to it as notes.

My actions for the 25th are pretty bad,still came out with a profit which is nice but recent sleep deprivation led to my eyelids blocking my view during trade two.


This is mostly wishful thinking but it is what I am trying to achieve the charts a little messy again but I get a vague idea of what I'm aiming for.


Gozzzzzilla

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 Gozilla 
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It looks like price is either there now or almost there on the daily, I've modified my lower support to try and take in the low from October which slightly affects the line projecting forward to now. All I can do is be prepared for what may come next.



As for the hourly chart, Price is testing the lower extreme as it moves to the original daily, there might be a new upper extreme on the go that will have to be looked at if/when price gets there.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Despite getting a good chunk of it still managed to miss most of it so far, I think I have gotten too fixated with the P&L which is making me fearful of giving much of it back so for now I am going to sit back and observe.

A couple of hours have passed since I last updated the daily but given what has happened since then it might be worthwhile recording the initial reaction.


I was unsure how price was going to work out this morning, I considered a rally off the hourly but also wondered if the proximity of the daily support would be some sort of irresistible force that price had to go to.

1. Price was hanging around the hourly support, Waited for price to break higher but also trailed a stop sell just in case price did end up blowing out the bottom of the hourly. Price broke lower then just kept going, initially tracked with lines but as the pace slowed marked off the retraces and planned on using those as stops, should have tracked with lines at the end as price accelerated again.

Watched price on the 1 minute waiting for the daily line to come up on the screen but when it is zoomed in longer time frame lines seem to vanish, I knew it was there and my stop probably would have been tighter had a seen we had a breach of it.

2. Possible resistance, Shorted as price failed to move higher and considered a continuation lower. Then once entered thought that this down move could be over, I flattened out which was a little early suspecting either a double bottom or higher low.

Should have waited on price to actually bottom rather than exit on feeling.

3. Higher low. With the downtrend being over price had failed to move lower, buy stop triggered and price tracked with lines. Eventually price broke the line and I hesitated a little as it was a sideways break, it dropped and I exited.

Even though I went long I was still biased short. Need to stop that. (Having a bias)

4. Price had a double top then broke the line, Shorted off the first retrace, I had initially discounted the line break earlier but picked up on it when price seemed to struggle, exited again more on feel.


5 and 6. Was a mess entered short, accidentally exited, re-entered and price failed to move south so exited again.

Should take a breather when I make mistakes.

7. With the uptrend being broken, now is the more appropriate retrace to get short. Tracked with lines and exited on the break.

It's during this trade I start to think to much about P&L, being so far ahead I could have given it a little room to retrace like it did to see if it would continue, once this trade closes out I start to think about calling it a day.

8 and 9. Over trading at this point and trying to scrape anything out of the market.

10. Short term trendline broken and as price retraces a short is triggered, trade exited quick as it fails to follow through.

Maybe should have waited to see if it took out the retracement high but maybe that is a bigger loss than necessary, possibly re-enter when price fails to reach this high but I was done by this point.

Was able to trade a lot closer to how I would like to, but it might have just been one of those days that suits my style better and there was still quite a few mistakes and oversights in there.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Update for trading activity from the 28th of March. Not really much of an update as I only watched the market for a short period of time, after 3 trades I made my mind up that it was looking a little indecisive and might be best left alone.

1. I was hesitating when it came to pulling the trigger but eventually entered when price broke higher after a slight pullback, price rallied before pulling back a touch and breaking the line, my exit was a little slower than I would have liked.

2. Looking for a short after the break of the previous line and closely watching price as it came to the previous high, Considered a long as this small pullback could have been a flag moving onto a continuation higher, the move got stopped at the high and a sell stop was triggered. Price briefly went lower before rising again, the lack of follow through convinced me to exit the trade.

3. Edit forgot this trade. Double top now a triple top, even though price broke a little lower it stalled and I exited again.

4. Third times a charm. Price again moved up to 3593 making it the fourth time it had visited this area and after coming off the lower low I shorted again but this time it broke higher causing me to exit the trade.

After the last trade I was unsure about how to proceed so sat out, I thought about giving it a couple of hours before looking at it again but decided it was the end of the week and to call it a day.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Compared to the norm I over traded slightly and by lunchtime decided to call it quits before I either got really carried away or did something stupid.

I'm only going to cover trades 1-3 as the rest are a fiasco for lack of a better word.

1. Price returned to opening high, I though about it breaking higher and decided if it did I would wait for it to retrace and then enter long, however if price was to fall I would trail a sell stop as it approached this price and trade as a possible range in formation. Price failed to break higher and swiftly moved lower triggering my order, Tracked with line (not shown) but I stepped away from the screens for a couple seconds and when I came back the line was broken and trade was exited very late.

If this was going to be a range, price bounced hard off the midpoint which was a consideration and why I planned to exit on any line break, my distraction cost me.

2. Price again returned to the opening high, there was a new high put in but as price came back under I shorted again, trade was quickly exited when price failed to follow through.

3. Only long trade of the day. Price just did not move away from the opening high and with the trade at two being a higher low I saw this as a breakout in the making and decided to enter if price moved to highs. Buy stop triggered and price tracked with lines and exited on break.

As for the rest of the trades, I think I was spraying and praying, there were a few really bad ones in there but for the most part I started shorting either when price failed to break the previous high or broke the previous low, it's just non of them on a very short time scale followed through enough and I over managed and traded way too much.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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A repeat was on the cards and I ended up stopping for the day much earlier as a fired off a few more trades than I would have liked and over reacted to the small movements in price that I should have learned to expect by now.

I have been kind of wondering if there was going to be a rally with price not breaking through the daily support line and early on felt today might have been the day for a trend upward towards the upper extreme starting but I got hung up on the small picture.

1. Daydreaming on this entry, somehow forgot that price does not keep going in a straight line, should have waited for a pullback prior to entering rather than grabbing a reason from thin air.

2. Price had broken the uptrend and made a failed attempt to move higher so entered short, quickly exited once price failed to break the previous lows.

3. Price moved higher than the previous swing high and in anticipation entered long, around this time altered lower trend line to take in new low which I ignored a few minutes later when it came to the exit of this trade.

Trade exited as I was unwilling to give it enough room mainly as I did not want to have 3 losers in a row. This is poor reasoning.

4. Explained on chart and why I should not have exited trade 3.

5. Price broke swing high entered long and then exited. I should have been a little more cautious as price is not going to the upper extreme of channel and is showing weakness on each high (red line)compared to the lower line.

Could have used the previous swing low as an exit instead of not wanting to take too much heat on the trade.

6. Breakout of range, entered a little fast on this at the time, need to exercise a little more patience and wait for a retrace, price broke line sideways I gave it a little room, it rallied again then broke adjusted line and I exited as it started to drop.

7. Re-test of previous range, with price holding at the top of the precious range, decided to go long once/if price broke the last swing high which it did, unfortunately price failed to follow through and I exited as it dropped back into the range.

I think from the last couple of days I really need to cool it down a bit. This kind of trading only makes the broker money. A whole lot of actions not much progress, hopefully I am learning something from these last couple of days.

Gozilla.


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 Gozilla 
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Did not notice it at the time or whilst annotating my charts only came up last night when I was reviewing my chart from the 31st of March, more specifically the area highlight in the green box, I was trying to work out what I could have done differently or failed to notice.

Given that I highlighted a similar occurrence on the 1 minute from yesterday's post I thought this might have some relevance in order to be more selective when it comes to trades.

Gozilla


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 tturner86 
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I have started watching the 300 tick charts from time to time, so I can have a better understanding when you post.

Thank you!


Gozilla View Post
First chart is a 300 tick, recently updated SC and instead of tick it seems to refer to it as trades, Second chart is a 60 minute, I just rolled my charts so had to update the lines and the last chart is a 1 minute chart.

I tend to chop and change how I display the price during the day and find in higher volume areas tick can clear the noise up a little, but any decisions made or trades taken are seen through on the bar interval it was opened on.



I understand that price more often ranges than not, but Identifying the change in real time from a rally or drop to a sideways range intraday is something I have often struggled with, I need to keep an open mind to all eventualities.





He who fights then runs away, lives to fight another day.

I think that's how the saying goes.

Gozilla


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 Gozilla 
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Update for 2nd April 2014.

Lot less trades compared to the start of the week but I feel I'm still letting things slip by that I should be picking up on a little better.

Checked out price prior to open to get an idea of support, resistance or any trendlines to help identify areas to be looking for trades, I want to be a little more picky right off the bat instead of machine gun trading. Market opened breaking higher, it did not get far and was quickly pushed down towards the lows. Again it rallied, broke a little higher and then got dropped quick, it did this two more times before finally forming a lower low, the subsequent two bar retrace could have been a short but at this point I hesitated due to an ascending trendline coming into play.

1. Price dropped to and slightly beyond what I considered support it bounced, dropped and managed to form a slightly higher low where a long was triggered, price rallied enough to track with lines, after several bars price dropped suddenly where I had a knee jerk reaction and exited the trade.

2. Seeing price form a higher low and retest what could be a consolidation range from trade 1 a buy stop was triggered with the idea that this could be a continuation back towards highs. Price failed to break the previous swing high and trade was exited.

3. Price had rallied off what was now new range lows, as it approached midpoint I was determined or biased towards price moving to upper limits and so, entered on what I considered a pullback continuation. Trade exited once price broke the pullback low.

This was a terrible trade, I have a range identified and a plan to trade the extremes but here I am trying to make something happen right in the middle. Also, I overlooked the break price of the rising trendline as a possible point of resistance.

4. Still considering the initial support as having some kind of effect on price at this point, again price breached this line moved higher then formed a higher low which triggered an entry, got a little rally from here but it was short lived and trade exited.

Trade reversal at the extremes of a range or the retest/retrace after the breakout or breakdown.

Stopped for the day after trade four, I wondered if price would get the extremes and more in particular if it would test resistance now support at the previous day's high. Was not until I checked in the lead up to close that I regretted this decision.

There's always next time.

Gozilla


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 Gozilla 
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Bad start to the day caused me to miss the opening 40 minutes and probably the best chance of the day or so it seemed at the time.

Range was reasonably straight forward to identify using yesterdays high and low, and today for a change price was reacting cleanly to the mid point, this offered opportunities but for now it was all about the extremes and waiting for one or the other to be reached prior to making any trades.

1. Price had breached the support line which I guess now is a bit of a warning, it didn't spend much time here and returned to the range where it flagged above support. Buy stop triggered as price broke higher, I was aware of the descending trendline but was playing this as a range, price reacted to the trendline and yet I continued to turn a blind eye to it. Price made it's way to break even and I exited.

Even though I know now that price moved lower I wonder if I should have given it time to test support or exit at the trendline.

2. Price spent a little time chewing up the line, it eventually pushed lower retraced to what could now be considered resistance and began dropping, sell stop triggered once price broke the retrace low.

Little frustrated with my exit. Price was moving lower it broke the initial line but instead of exiting I decided to use the swing highs to dictate the exit, trade was exited on emotion there was no exit as no swing high was broken on the move down until the bottom highlighted by arrow.


Again as seems to be a habit I got distracted by getting something to eat and then did not feel like sitting back in front of the computer for the last couple of hours and again like the previous day had to give myself a kick when I checked over the end of day action.

This chart is all in hindsight so it may not have turned out the way I would have liked but it shows to me that trades exist right up to end of day. I just think that range days are real enthusiasm sappers.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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tturner86 View Post
I have started watching the 300 tick charts from time to time, so I can have a better understanding when you post.

Thank you!

The 300 tick is handy for getting in and out fast but on very high volume days like this it can give off a lot of trades, I think this has been behind my over trading earlier in the week.

Today was an example, huge volume, over double the previous day and all the oscillations on the 300 looked big even though point wise they are not that big but the eye can convince the head to make all sorts of rash decisions. The 1000 tick and 1 minute however looked a lot more appealing but I did not think about it until it was a little later in the day when the best of it was behind us.

Post to follow will illustrate this I hope.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Interesting day today, sat out the open as I was wanting to wait and see how the market reacted to news and by the time I was feeling a little more confident to dip my toe in the water 40 minutes had passed and a little patience had to be exercised waiting for a setup to take the first trade on.

The lead up to the first trade. Price had rallied from yesterdays lows which was also the high from 31st of March. Pre-market to open price had re-entered yesterdays range and by open had moved slightly higher than the midpoint of this range. Price got slammed from here, hit and broke yesterdays low, bounced then created a new low before rallying. This rally went as far as the flag formed when price dropped out of the range, possible resistance? Price dropped from here broke the trendline and it was a case of waiting for a retrace.

1. With price breaking its uptrend we eventually identify a retrace and trail a stop entry to get triggered when price makes the drop from the retrace. Trade triggered, track with lines and once it has moved further in the right direction we could use swing highs as exits. Trade eventually exited under yesterdays lows.

2 & 3. Another rally broken and time to wait for a retrace, this time however I mangled my entry and got in too early, price continued to rally and I exited the trade. Re-entered short again tagging this as the real break of the retrace but as price hesitated to move lower than the retrace low exited the trade.


Missed most of the middle as I was out hence the big gap between 3 and 4.

4. The pace of the fall had by this time started to tail off but was still trending lower. Price had broken the descending trendline and bounced confirming the lower channel, I failed to take the first retrace instead entering on the next pullback but by now price was mid channel and trade was chopped up.

5. Trade had reached top of the channel and I decided to jump in on a reversal prior to any retrace, though there was an initial drop it failed to follow through, it rallied broke higher where I exited the trade.



I think it has been an OK week, there has been over trading, getting tangled up in chop and trading on emotion but overall it's been a positive experience and given me some ideas and things to look at going forward.

Gozilla

Today had a large outlier that made a huge difference to the week, I think my losers are under control but I need to boost the winners slightly as a large bulk of them are not as productive as I would like. This could be achieved I think with better trade selection and less emotion based decisions.

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 Gozilla 
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I want to go over yesterdays action with a fine tooth comb to highlight things I missed, not just the things I did not pick up on as I watched but also cover what happened when I was out. I'm going to track it on a 300 tick chart and try to pick up on all the possible entries and exits good and bad and be as honest as I can be with how I think I might, or better yet should have traded, this is all in hindsight so who knows how each situation would have played out in real time

Chart has been chopped up to make the picture a little clearer.

First chart. There is often hesitation trading with news or at the open but a signal is a signal, with price rejecting the midpoint of the previous range there is a rapid drop and a very brief flag or pullback, this is not yet at an extreme so this can be left, at this point we don't know if price is going to stick with the old range or not and with possible support not that far away patience can be exercised for a better opportunity.

Price breaks support and flags again, it's doing this at what is now resistance, 36 seconds to make the decision, 35 seconds more than you need, if you have a plan and are confident in it you know what you are looking for and what you are going to do about it, short on a break of the lows with a stop above the flag high or above resistance, As for management use the lines as a stop or exit once price fails to push lower. Line would exit trade for about 16 ticks exiting on break of high would have meant giving back all that profit which might have been painful to watch but during this larger flag it just makes it to the range of this earlier mini pullback and gets dropped. This larger flag might possibly give off two false entries depending on how aggressive one is.

There are a number of flags on the way down all of which fail to break the previous swing high offering chances to get in or even add before price breaks the faster line started from the larger flag, price also broke the last swing high at about the same time, price rallies and reacts to the slower line and creates a new low before rallying again breaking the slower line, from here it's a case of waiting for a retrace.

With previous swing high being broken price flags and we have an entry, this is short lived as price briefly rallies then gets dropped through the last swing low, it does recover but for me at least I would have waited for another flag proceeding a new high which comes along a few minutes later or gotten chewed and waited for something a little clearer.

Eventually we rally to the larger flag mentioned near the start and price fails to make any further progress, it swiftly rejects this area and starts to flag on the trend line. It is a possibility to enter short once this flag low is broken as this would be outside the trend line but I decided to wait for price to move away before taking a trade on via a flag, as this was a trade it is discussed in an earlier post.

As highlighted in the chart my entries have been very aggressive and this is behind a lot of my short lived failures over the last 2 weeks but when they work out there are more ticks to bank. As an afterthought a lot of them do work out I just freak out when they don't work straight away.

This is really long winded and the chart is going to get broken up over a couple of posts.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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This middle point starts where we left off from the last chart review.

Price had been falling up to this point and was tracked by a trend line, it broke this line but moved lower. It rallied off this new low then flagged, this is an iffy spot as the proceeding swing high might be a problem, either you can take the trade off the flag, buy stop the breakout or wait for a retrace. Price rallies 20 points from low breaks the trend line then breaks the last swing low trade would be exited around here.

There as a sharp drop away from the trend line which is followed by a retrace which fails to make a fresh high this is the entry point of the next trade. Track with line manage through stops at the swing high. The area highlighted might be very difficult to watch, those spikes are 8 points and last around a minute, it would be hard not to exit seeing those oscillations in the trade and 8 points on its own is a good trade BUT at no point do the oscillations break the previous swing high so the trade is safe.

Not sure how much credit to give it but there is a little wedge/triangle/coil formed in the area of the spikes, when price breaks down you would wait for a retrace to the break price or apex as a potential entry.

From here we keep an eye on the highs and price moves to 3580 which is the top of the range from the start of the week and also support from a retest once price broke this range, It's now noticeable that price has moved along way from the trend line so a parallel line can be marked in to track the lower half of what now looks like a trending channel.

Price moves more to the mean of the channel still making lower highs as it goes, soon it tests the lower trend line and a decision has to be made, exit at the bottom of the range, exit if the latest swing high is breached or exit if the range gets broken. Without a crystal ball it's uncertain if price will rally, go sideways or drop at a slower rate, trader preference on this, I'd lean toward an exit at lows but that's based on not wanting to give too much back if price does rally out of trend.

Price retests former support as resistance then continues dropping eventually reaching the channel bottom, again same decision as last time. Price makes it to upper channel and starts dropping, it fails to reach the lower part of the channel and then after a couple of lower highs takes out the previous highs.

Trades marked in channel are kept to the extremes but there is always a chance to add anytime price retraces and fails to take the previous high. Also there are no longs in the downtrend as it is uncertain how price will move after hitting lower portion of channel, they could be taken but the bias at this point is down.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Last chart to cover the day and the opportunities are still there but it gets a little harder now.

Price by this point has made its way to the top of the channel, exits the channel breaking the last swing high and flagged, if price moves higher an entry will be triggered if it drops there could be a short available for a return to the channel. Its a little early to say if we are going to have a rally from here but the opportunities are taken when they present themselves.

Trade triggered long and tracked with line. It doesn't get to far before running into trouble, either exit with the line or when the swing low is broken, now price ranges finding resistance at around 3558.50 and support around 3553.25 which also happens to be the top of the range of the flag, maybe another coincidence.

Price bounces around this range for 22 minutes before dropping out, it makes a quick retest where an entry short could be opened. price flags again and drops slightly creating a small swing high which is quickly broken, it is a blip but the rule stands to exit. There is sharp drop followed by a rally followed by another sharp drop, Price now starts pumping in higher highs and higher lows.

The peak of this rally tags the topping range and drops, there are a couple of lower highs and lower lows. It is still not such a great picture when it comes to identifying trades, price now begins to range for a stretch breaks lower then re-enters range on a retrace then tests the top, it drops off the high slightly before retracing a little giving a possible entry short. Price breaks down then retests the range as resistance, there is a possible false exit in there.

Now the upper trend line can be adjusted to take in the latest high and a parallel line to take in the low, this lower line is not confirmed until it is retested. Track drop with line as marked and exit on break of high or line. There is a quick retrace to enter long but this gets chopped at the mid-point.

Price reached the upper trend line but no trade is triggered as each retrace ends up pushing higher, it drops back to the trend line, and we now identify a H&S formation (for old time's sake) it retests the neckline drops from here before a small rally forming a lower high so no exit then price moves to H&S target.

And that's the end of the that, Over 150 points between all these trades if entered and managed correctly and I managed to get 6 and a 1/2, still happy though gives me food for thought on the things I need to do to get a bigger slice of the pie.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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With the amount of volume seen on Friday it made for a lot of opportunities which may have led to over trading. A fast chart will give off a lot of trades and at times seem almost frantic so there are times when things need to be slowed down a little.

As it is slower a slight adjustment might need to be made (maybe) when it comes to exit as there can be a lot of difference when price moves in a direction and then comes back to a possible exit at a swing high or low. Either use the lines or pay more attention to the bars to see if they moved much into the proceeding bar.

Sometimes use a 1000 tick or 1 minute when I am failing to make heads or tails of what I am looking at, if it is really tough I'll step away and look again later.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Attached stats are to cover all trading activity for the last 2 weeks.

Whilst I am happy with the results and identified some areas I think need some attention I can't help wondering if my trading over this duration is a realistic reflection on what I will really do if I was to trade live, with real money on the line in the past I have withered under the pressure and allowed myself to be ruled be emotions.

To this end I feel that I am going to have to do a stress test to see how I hold up. It may be a little early, and I would have liked to have spent more time developing more of a habit with my method but I need to see if what I am doing now is what I will do under the spotlight.

Going live, trades permitting 7th April 2014.

Gozilla


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 Gozilla 
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So today was the day to start trading live and I wish I could say it was a success but it was not, but it's okay these things happen.

I think I was reasonably centered leading into the trades and during them even though they were short and sweet, the trades taken just did not work out but that's why there are stops in place. If I had to say anything in terms of there being a difference between live and sim I would say I was a little more picky about my trade selection and that might have caused me to mess up my second entry.

I had thoughts about my stats and it occurred to me that my record came about as a result of being more trigger happy and managing the trades in particular the losers well, I'll bear this in mind going forward but will continue to work on trade selection.

Being unsure about the direction we are going to have going into the open I marked off some highs and lows and waited to see how price was going to react to these levels.

1. Price had reacted to the lower support level and began making its way to the top of what could have been a range, price reacted to the high at 3518.75 as it did so I entered short on a reversal. Price failed to move lower and instead broke out breaking the previous high and stopping the trade out.

Easy to convince myself at this point that with it being so close to open I should have waited for things to settle down but if the opportunity is there I have to take it.

2. Price had rallied for 30 minutes and broke the trend line. Now it's a question of waiting for the retrace to trigger an entry. The retrace took place and also tested the break price but I was very slow on getting in and ended up entering 5 points later than I should have. Price made a small rally and the stop was hit again.

Hesitation may have been a result of trepidation, I am going to have to get used to being live quick. There was about 1 minute from the trade being triggered to my entry, that's not good enough and will require some work to get over it.

There is one trade in there that I missed that I was disappointed with myself for missing as I think I was biased short at the time. Price broke the lows, I waited for it to retest as resistance, it broke back above support/resistance breaking the line in the process, it then retraces and tests as support. Price fails to break lower and an entry would be triggered at around 3507.50, price rallies breaks the retrace high and continues up.

Price gets tracked with lines which get increasingly steeper to keep up with the pace. Now a decision has to be made, Exit when the green line is broken, price drops but fails to break a mini retrace from the rally, price rallies off the slower pink line (entry low+retrace low) but the resulting high struggles to pass the previous high meaning a possible exit on line break. Again price fails to break the previous low and rallies again but again does not really get far beyond the previous high, now the exit is either if the low gets broken or the line (from low to entry low). It all comes down to traders preference.

This is hindsight and not important now, tomorrow is a new day with new opportunities.

Gozilla -25

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 Gozilla 
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As the title suggest things did not go as well as hoped and I definitely noticed a physiological difference as the trading day unfolded, which to be honest is not a huge surprise but the way in which I was affected had me thinking.

To start off with, in preparation of the open yesterdays highs and lows were marked off along with the overnight highs and lows and I threw in yesterdays afternoon session high as well as price had retreated strongly from this peak.

Going into the open price was still in the overnight range but in the hour leading to open was sticking in the upper half of this range.

At open price broke the top of the range and headed for yesterday's pm high @3520.75, price stopped 2 ticks shy of this price and I looked for a reversal trade.

1. Short triggered as price dropped off highs, it was a very short lived trade that moved briefly in the right direction but as soon as it starting coming back I exited.

I don't expect it all my way and after watching half the profit going in a blink I may have over reacted, but I am always a little harsher on my trades at the open as I often expect some kind of violent oscillation to mess up the trade.

2. The rally fails to break higher, rather then thinking this is a possible continuation I consider this to be a retrace of the first failure and decide to short as price drops off, not a whole lot of headway is made and as price moves against me. I exit, at the worst possible time and price missing the subsequent drop.

Now there are two things in this trade that I noticed affecting me in my decisions.

# Sim me would most likely have re-entered, my exit is on a lower high and my re-entry should/would have been on the previous swing low being broken.

# As I exited the trade I thought, "I need to give them a little more room and should have waited for the high to be taken out". My sim success was based on treating trades at entry with extreme prejudice with re-entry if necessary. If it looks like it's going to rip my face off don't give it the chance.

This last point hurt me in a later trade.

Price dropped to overnight lows where it found support and bounced, there was an entry in there but I did not take it as I hesitated. Price rallied but chopped up around the middle of the range and as I am waiting for the extremes to be tested I wait.

Price reaches the bottom of the range and things get a little messy.

3. There is a slight break of the lows at this point I am waiting for a a possible long with a retrace back into the range and for the range low to act as support, but the retrace breaks below support again and makes a brief test from below I take this as a failure of the long and go short at the exact wrong price and time, We get a rally and get stopped out.

My decision making got mangled during this trade and there are some considerations to take into account.

If this was a breakout it hardly acted like a breakout, I should have watched for a more explosive or concerted effort to move away from this area, it stuck it's toe in the water but that's as far as it went. The long option was still in play but I was too fixated on an exact price representing whether we were at support or resistance. As soon as it failed to push lower I knew I was wrong but allowed myself to be affected by the previous trade by giving it enough room to break the last swing high, this resulted in an outlier loser.

Price even retraced just after these lows giving a second chance to get on board but I was shadow boxing at this point so missed it.

4. Now I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel. Price had broken to highs and eventually broke the trend channel creating a lower low and lower high where I shorted, the trade goes a little positive but starts to tick back where I exit for a small loss.

I shut it down after this as another trade might put me past my daily stop.

I'm identifying the trades just not the correct actions, I think there are some good lessons for myself to learn out of all this, it's just a question whether or not I take heed.

Gozilla -19

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 Gozilla 
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Infinity/Transact
Trading: YM
 
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This morning saw price meandering sideways and not really in a wide enough range to entice me into getting involved for the most part.

Price opened into a tight range and whilst I considered taking trades off the extreme decided it would be wiser to sit out as the range was too narrow to play. Eventually price broke lower but found support at yesterday's high which for the time being was now the lower extreme of the range and making Monday's high the midpoint in this range.

With the range being still as tight as it was I felt the only option moving forward was too wait for an extreme to be broken as any entry trading the range might struggle at the midpoint.

1. Price breaks out of the top of the range then drops breaking the trendline it retraces back towards the high but stops a couple of ticks shy. A short triggered but I'm very wary that this is a quick trade if it fails to break back into the range, as it hits the top of the range it falters I give it a little time but it just doesn't push through so the trade is exited.

I did plan on exiting at anything that looked like rejection but worst case scenario with trade in profit I would have been out for a small profit or BE, just had to see if it was going to re-enter or not.

Was not so keen on the long so sat out again waiting for something to happen. After a couple of hours price broke above previous highs and flagged.

2. Triggered when the high of the flag was broken, price continued moving up but soon ground to a halt, after a couple of attempts to push higher it failed breaking the line in the process and shutting the trade down.

3. Went for a short on this failure but price went up causing the trade to be exited.

After this trade I convinced myself that the market was in chop mode and that it would be safer to wait for another day.

Overall a lot happier today, nothing spectacular but no disasters either and traded a little closer to how I like.

Gozilla +2

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