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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #71 (permalink)
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Messy day.

Probably the best trade of the day was at the open to catch the rally, I missed this and decided to wait for things to settle down. As things settled I started to look for trades and found myself getting chopped up, after a couple of dicey trades I decided to sit out and wait again, eventually I traded again and with a little perseverance I got chopped some more.

Very bull headed of me today to think I can make something from not very much, I need to remember to stick to the basics, identify my spots and take them, and if its not working out to walk away as tomorrow is another day.

I'll post notes for the trade I missed and what I could do about it when it comes to exiting and what I can look at in terms of giving it room to stretch out a little.

Gozilla
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YM chart for posterity same setup as NQ.
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Last edited by Gozilla; March 17th, 2014 at 06:05 PM. Reason: Forget a chart.
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  #72 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
Probably the best trade of the day was at the open to catch the rally, I missed this and decided to wait for things to settle down. As things settled I started to look for trades and found myself getting chopped up, after a couple of dicey trades I decided to sit out and wait again, eventually I traded again and with a little perseverance I got chopped some more.

Very bull headed of me today to think I can make something from not very much, I need to remember to stick to the basics, identify my spots and take them, and if its not working out to walk away as tomorrow is another day.

I'll post notes for the trade I missed and what I could do about it when it comes to exiting and what I can look at in terms of giving it room to stretch out a little.

Gozilla
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What chart settings are you using (tick, range, etc)?

Days like today and Friday you have to determine it is a range day quickly. I did after about an hour, so when price came down to the 54 area I looked to buy, when it got up in the 60's I looked to sell.

But you are correct, you can not make something happen. You trade what you have, if it isn't there you wait till the next day. Just doing that and saving your money will add up in the long run.

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  #73 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
What chart settings are you using (tick, range, etc)?

First chart is a 300 tick, recently updated SC and instead of tick it seems to refer to it as trades, Second chart is a 60 minute, I just rolled my charts so had to update the lines and the last chart is a 1 minute chart.

I tend to chop and change how I display the price during the day and find in higher volume areas tick can clear the noise up a little, but any decisions made or trades taken are seen through on the bar interval it was opened on.


tturner86 View Post
Days like today and Friday you have to determine it is a range day quickly. I did after about an hour, so when price came down to the 54 area I looked to buy, when it got up in the 60's I looked to sell.

I understand that price more often ranges than not, but Identifying the change in real time from a rally or drop to a sideways range intraday is something I have often struggled with, I need to keep an open mind to all eventualities.
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tturner86 View Post
But you are correct, you can not make something happen. You trade what you have, if it isn't there you wait till the next day. Just doing that and saving your money will add up in the long run.

He who fights then runs away, lives to fight another day.

I think that's how the saying goes.

Gozilla

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  #74 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
First chart is a 300 tick, recently updated SC and instead of tick it seems to refer to it as trades, Second chart is a 60 minute, I just rolled my charts so had to update the lines and the last chart is a 1 minute chart.

I tend to chop and change how I display the price during the day and find in higher volume areas tick can clear the noise up a little, but any decisions made or trades taken are seen through on the bar interval it was opened on.



I understand that price more often ranges than not, but Identifying the change in real time from a rally or drop to a sideways range intraday is something I have often struggled with, I need to keep an open mind to all eventualities.
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He who fights then runs away, lives to fight another day.

I think that's how the saying goes.

Gozilla

A thing to remember is a trend can start in a range, can be part of a range, or could end in a range. If you look at Thursday down trend ended in a range that lasted into Friday. Monday broke up then created a range sideways, and then today broke out into a trend that could become a range tomorrow. Breakout > Trend > Channel > Range. The market moves through though cycles.

The market moves in cycles, the quicker you can determine the phase you are in the better.

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  #75 (permalink)
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Rinse and repeat

Feels like groundhog day, carbon copy of yesterday with the best trade being at the open, I did not take it as my attention was elsewhere and I often hesitate when taking trades at the open.

The only trade of note was yesterday's high being re-tested as support, once price bounced I traded as a flag and exited on the line break. After that I was in unfamiliar territory and struggling to work out what price was doing. Maybe I need to sit out after the opening hour or two.

Gozilla
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  #76 (permalink)
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Ughhhh, good, meh.

Can't help but feel more than a little frustrated with myself with a day like this.

To start with the 60 min chart, What was I looking at as we went in to the open. A possible area of resistance from the highs of the 18th and 19th at around 3703, and lows from the 19th and 20th at around 3656, So its ranging for the time being.
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Now I focus on a faster time frame to help make decisions at these areas of interest, I never seem to stick to one time frame in particular, I switch between the 1 minute and 300 tick most of the time. For this example I will use the 300 tick as it is where most of my decisions were made.

What do I see, A trending channel, My thoughts at this point right before open are. Price has hit the 60 minute resistance, It has gotten very close or probably as close as it is going to get the the upper trend line, so a drop from here based on those two factors is highly likely but as we approach the bell price has spent a couple of hours in a tight range, I want to see how it reacts to a break of this before I take on any trade.
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Market opens, Price breaks up, now I think a possible retrace back to former resistance might be an opportunity for a long, but as I think this price runs into further resistance from the highs on 12th and 13th the 11th is also in that neighbourhood and this is also alongside the upper part of the channel which is being tested.

1. Price drops to the pre-open range and bounces, this bounce fails to get close the the opening high and as price begins to fall I short, But I am mindful that this pre-open range may offer support and I decide if price fails to break the previous low on the next test I am out. Price fails to break lower I give it a little time, perhaps too much then exit.

2. Price makes another attempt at the low at 3703.75 and again fails to get lower, it now pushes just past the previous high which leads to a slightly higher low, given that price is at support/resistance the balance could be swinging to support, I decide to go long as price comes off this higher low. About a minute later I am out as price fails to clear the high.

3. Price breaks lower, and then pushes through the pre-open range, I am now looking for a retrace to this range for a possible entry short, which I get but my entry is a little sluggish, 2 minutes later there is a 2 point spike which led to me mashing the exit button.

At this point as price drops I get a little tilted and elect to sit out, I have a rough idea of where price is heading so I can wait until it gets there, whilst I could re-enter, my confidence is not high and it would tilt me a little more to get in and watch price reverse on my entry as it often feels like it does.
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4. After watching and waiting, price has finally moved to the bottom of the range or at least for this trade close enough, which is a mistake. At this point I am looking to go long and any excuse will do (lack of discipline, maybe a little tilted still). Best explained with chart, price broke down line put in a higher high then a higher low, long triggered but price failed to move higher, so again trade exited.

A little frustrated to allow my eagerness to get in the way, If I had tracked the drop I would have noticed the big black line tracking the move and may have waited until the area described on chart.
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With support acting as support I now have to work out what might happen next. After a drop like this a bounce is likely to be more a bang than a whimper, So I look for areas of previous support/resistance for clues, I also use a fib retracement of the range to look at the midpoint. Support/resistance levels pulled from 300 tick trend at 3674.5 and the last touch on the support extreme at around 3680, which is also about the halfway point for the larger range.

Whilst I considered trading as price moved I was hesitant, I think I had made my mind up at this point where I was going to take the next trade and how I was going to do it, so I waited.

5. Price by now has for all intensive purposes hit the area that I am interested in, the 3rd swing high as only just breached the previous high, so I am calling it a double top, price moves to the trend line breaking it and then breaks the last swing low, it now bounces, this is the retracement I am looking for. The line at 3674.5 is not really a deciding factor, I am waiting for price to decline and trail a sell stop as price moves up, eventually the stop is triggered and the short is open, again I have an idea in my head as to what is going to happen and what I will do, so I start this post to stop myself from micromanaging the trade, I keep an eye on the swing highs in the drop as potential exit points and then let the line track the price. Price gets to target but as I think there is always a chance price could go lower I wait for the break of the line for an exit which does eventually come without giving too much back.
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After this last trade I was done for the day, Partly as I was a little tired and partly I did not want to give anything back as it was not too bad a trade to end the day, even though I missed or messed up on the biggest trades of the day I think I thought my way through it a little better than I usually do.

Maybe I need to be more robust in my pre-market evaluation and plan the day out a little better.

Gozilla

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Maybe I need to be more robust in my pre-market evaluation and plan the day out a little better.

Gozilla

No, you already draw some of the best lines on the board. I think you need to spend no more than an hour doing what you do and trade any two breaks or bounces of any of your lines and take 2:1 or stop-outs. I also spend way too much time on the analysis paralysis planet and it's better when I jump off. Just my 2p.

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  #78 (permalink)
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Think I got a little sick.

An hour and a half after open I felt compelled to record my thoughts on what has taken place so far today.

First things first, I did not really spend a lot of time looking at charts over the weekend as I kind of needed a break and there was not really a whole lot to do since the end of week, but I did have a few things to think about.

Price on my daily was breaching the mid point and I wondered if we would see price move to the extreme support trend line, so far it looks good for this.
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The hourly chart has been a harder one to judge, I have kept my lines from previous posts but updated it also to take in the recent highs breaching this trend. The range break from Friday and subsequent retest was a terrible trade on my part and will be explained in a shorter time frame, in hindsight it looks so clear but that's all history now.
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Going to put in the 300 tick and 1 min charts as I think they both offer pointers, I tend to leave multiday trend lines to time charts and intraday to tick charts as the lines will differ sometimes by quite a big margin.

The tick first, I think it was too fast for me today or I was too slow for it, nonetheless it still gave off a few good entries and exits.
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The 1 minute chart is a little clearer to me today as it gives clearer reasons to stay in a trade once entered.
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Despite all this I'm still down 14 ticks as I jumped in and out too quick but it has been good to watch what has been happening.

Gozilla

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  #79 (permalink)
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More notes.

I am starting to struggle when it comes to staying focused during the day and as result most opportunities pass in a blur as I try to react to what is happening.

Going to keep it to the charts, one chart of what I did do and one for what I should have done, which is hindsight and perhaps besides the point but I can refer to it as notes.

My actions for the 25th are pretty bad,still came out with a profit which is nice but recent sleep deprivation led to my eyelids blocking my view during trade two.
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This is mostly wishful thinking but it is what I am trying to achieve the charts a little messy again but I get a vague idea of what I'm aiming for.
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Gozzzzzilla


Last edited by Gozilla; March 26th, 2014 at 01:49 AM. Reason: wrong chart
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  #80 (permalink)
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Time frame considerations.


It looks like price is either there now or almost there on the daily, I've modified my lower support to try and take in the low from October which slightly affects the line projecting forward to now. All I can do is be prepared for what may come next.
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As for the hourly chart, Price is testing the lower extreme as it moves to the original daily, there might be a new upper extreme on the go that will have to be looked at if/when price gets there.
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