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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
Aberdeen, Scotland
 
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Update

Going to make it a short update with a longer post to follow after this.

Since last post had 4 trades with 3 losers and one profitable trade, I am really struggling to make out what is going on when I look at the charts of the contracts I trade. I really hate being away the way I am as I just cant follow whats going on and it feels like 1 step forward 1 step back and that I need to get my eye in which can take a few days.

Alas enough of the moaning, My 3 losing trades will be described on the charts, my last trade is below.

4. YM trade, Decided to go long off of the trend line even though it had just crossed below an area of potential support which may become resistance on a retest. Price initially rejected trend line so took an entry as price moved above candle @15816 Stop @15807 with a target @15844 (shy of the previous high).

This trade to an extent feels like a failure, I over managed it to death, with price failing to clear 823 and hanging onto the trend line for so long again as is often the case I got far too involved and started to mess with my targets and stops. Eventually I put in an order for a trailing stop order to trigger at +20 and trail by 10 but I could not even leave this alone and once price rallied to 832 I manually trailed and got stopped at 824. Target hit original stop still good.

Gozilla YM+3 NQ-17
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  #52 (permalink)
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Other opportunities.

As I harped on in my last post about my inability to see anything it does not mean the trading world is devoid of opportunities waiting to be taken advantage of. Whilst YM is my primary contract of choice with 6B and NQ following along closely, I still like to keep an occasional eye on other contracts especially when I'm struggling to see whats what and I want to know if it's just me or the market I'm looking at.

There seemed to be a lot of opportunities that looked a lot more clear cut than the ones I was trying to make happen but my rules stopped me from getting involved with them and besides the rules some of the trades presented me with a hard choice of potentially being stopped for the day on one trade even with a tight stop if it failed.

If I was consistently profitable I would consider increasing my daily loss limit but as it stands I wont be doing this anytime soon as it would be foolish to widen my stops when I struggle to have days that are equal or beyond my stops in terms of profit, but I can still sit on the sidelines and watch though.

Gozilla
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Last edited by Gozilla; November 14th, 2013 at 07:58 PM. Reason: Forgot the nq stop out on chart first trade
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  #53 (permalink)
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Going to cry now


What a disaster, That's me stopped out for the day 4 1/2 hours prior to market open and I am raging at the reason for it.

Its 1 trade but 2 if it makes any sense and I will have to explain what went wrong.

6B. Price had come back to a trend line as shown in chart and after a couple of minutes I got my entry signal, Entry @1.6056 Stop @1.6046 and a target at highs @1.6095.

After a couple of minutes trade seemed to falter, I was not too worried about my stop but felt my target was maybe not that great so wanted to keep it at the descending trend line coming from the recent highs. As I clicked on the DOM to drag and drop my order I heard that ding that lets you know something has happened, for a split second I thought my stop had been hit but to my dismay a new target and stop popped up telling me that I had added to my position.

I could not work out what I had done, but as I tried to figure it out my first trade was taken out and the second position got hit to the tick surprise surprise and price seemed to instantly go to initial entry. Obviously I expressed my disgust theatrically using my keyboard as a prop.

I am very frustrated with how the week has turned out, I think my expectations during my absence balloons out of proportion and as a result when things don't go to plan I react poorly to it. I'll use the weekend to think about changes like whether or not to trade prior to open and avoiding the first 30 minutes as clearly things have not worked at all well this week.

I can only judge a situation by the results 6 trades 5 losers 1 winner.

Gozilla 6B-16
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Last edited by Gozilla; November 15th, 2013 at 11:31 AM. Reason: typos
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  #54 (permalink)
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Doom and gloom

1 trade today and 1 loser with the trade being on the YM.

1. With price coming onto the trend line I was looking for price to make a bounce and proceed to move to highs for a target between 895-995 or an exit based on trend line being broken. Entry @15968 Stop @15958 Target already noted. Stopped out.

Thoughts, a little frustrated but in fairness I think its one I could have avoided, more of my trades of late have had shorter targets than what I have been used to and this one offered 20 ticks if that if the highs were resistance, there was a possibility it could keep going on following the lines but by this point I felt it was showing a little weak with the second high being lower than the first and coming back to the line so soon after the last near touch.

THE NQ, ugh I did it again, Spent all day watching it. Most of what I though is on the chart I had to leave my screens as price came to first possible entry, whilst entry price was met I might have struggled to take it on as it would have required a wider stop that would have tested me a bit and as there were a few pullbacks prior to target I have to ask myself. Would I have held to target?

The second trade and the one that hurt the must, I was overly reliant on my alerts to do the job of keeping an eye on it, I had multiple errors in my service log relating to time stamp or something that sounds like that so not sure if this had a part in my alerts failing to go off. With price flagging below support it was exactly how I planned out my short approach on this trade and the target was just nearest point of interest.
The way price got to target is a rare feat and I doubt I would have found much in the way of reasons to get out once the move was under way but even I can surprise myself so who knows how I would have handled the situation.

Gozilla YM-10
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  #55 (permalink)
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Ideas

Just a short one to see how my ideas work out and how I react to them live.

Gozilla
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Two trades taken from these charts,
NQ price hit 1400 dropped and then rallied again took this as a bull flag entered long @1400.25 price dropped and stop was taken out -9.
YM price go to resistance about 15990 entered short @15984 with a target at 15955 almost flattened as price loitered between entry and stop @15994, price moved positive eventually and I panicked out on the bounce @15971 +13. Target hit stop still good will I ever learn!


Last edited by Gozilla; November 19th, 2013 at 12:13 PM. Reason: adding trades taken
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  #56 (permalink)
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Another idea

Possible trade on the YM coming up, what will I do?

Gozilla
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  #57 (permalink)
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Update

Made a few posts today as I wanted to track my ideas through to execution and see what changed by the time I completed a trade.

Today's results are not really any better for it but I have managed to get 6 trades in 4 losers and 2 winners, the main reason for the amount of trades is that I am trying to take in every one I identify but in some sense I feel I over did it a little.

All the trades are explained on chart, they are a little cluttered but I am a little more than frustrated and want to go shut it down for a bit so thought I would make a post while it was still fresh in my mind.

Gozilla YM +2 NQ -17
The NQ is a harsh mistress, I think I will have to strike this off my trade list as it always seems to get me when I do eventually take it on.
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  #58 (permalink)
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Dropping anchors

Long time no post, since last post I have had 1 trade which was on the ES and for loss of 6 ticks and that was the end of my trading days at home 11 November to 22 November.

Since then trading activity as far as futures are concerned has ceased as I was not all too happy with the way things were working, or more specifically how I was working. The effort of this period of time was to try and stay a lot more hands off when it came to my trades and whilst I achieved this to a large extent the results were dire to say the least not just in terms of P&L but in how I think about my approach to trading.

I had a win rate at 20% which has been the lowest it's ever been whilst I've traded futures, what bothered me the most was letting the failures hit my stop, it might seem weird to say my objective is to keep hands off, the majority of the failures held between my entry and stop for quite a considerable time (10-20mins) from what I'm used to, giving me all the time in the world to follow my gut instinct, but this was not about gut instincts it was not pleasant and I lost more money than I would have if I had listened to my gut but it was a learning experience none the less.

For me it reinforced the idea to bailout of a trade that is not doing or behaving how I anticipate and to wait for a better spot later, this of course will be at odds with giving a trade room to breathe and this conclusion might be influenced by another factor.

I think it's time to admit that my account size is increasingly influencing a lot of my decisions, taking profits to early, choking when trying to execute a trade even taking trades that are far from the best. At this moment in time I have neither the skill nor confidence to overcome this hurdle hence the cessation of trading activities in my futures account. I don't necessarily believe that funding an account more appropriately will suddenly resolve my issues there is something a little deeper than just the account size that's causing problems here.

As far as skill and confidence come into play, I have a few ideas that I plan to test out via chart replay. Once I have a few months (6 months +) testing it over a number of instruments and time frames I will hopefully be able to define more clearly a method for trading which I can take into live sim (result dependant) and see how I work under realtime pressures. Taking the time to establish, test, evaluate and retest is something I have neglected to do in the past as I have been too eager to trade and have often cobbled together a method that was not thoroughly tested prior to going live, This is the first thing I should have done prior to ever trading live.

There are some threads on another forum that have made me think about my method and how I am going to proceed forward, I've noticed a lot of things in my journal and had a lot of ideas that I have struggled to construct in a manner I can work with but these threads have joined a lot of the dots or at least how I understand them and I am very eager to see how what I come up with works.

It might seem doom and gloom but what I'm doing is not working to well and taking the time to go over my plan and method to ensure it is fit for purpose is the best thing I can do right now, once I'm home and have the time to go over my charts I'll try to define what I'm looking at for entries and exits and management of trade ideas.

Gozilla

On a side note, I'm testing psychology swing trading fx in a micro account and find it a little odd when I have so little to lose how indifferent I am as to wether the trade works or not I can only take the trade off S&R set my stops and targets and forget about it, I don't feel inclined to get involved as at most I'm risking .2% a trade and taking 3 of 4 trades a week.

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  #59 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
Long time no post, since last post I have had 1 trade which was on the ES and for loss of 6 ticks and that was the end of my trading days at home 11 November to 22 November.

Since then trading activity as far as futures are concerned has ceased as I was not all too happy with the way things were working, or more specifically how I was working. The effort of this period of time was to try and stay a lot more hands off when it came to my trades and whilst I achieved this to a large extent the results were dire to say the least not just in terms of P&L but in how I think about my approach to trading.

I had a win rate at 20% which has been the lowest it's ever been whilst I've traded futures, what bothered me the most was letting the failures hit my stop, it might seem weird to say my objective is to keep hands off, the majority of the failures held between my entry and stop for quite a considerable time (10-20mins) from what I'm used to, giving me all the time in the world to follow my gut instinct, but this was not about gut instincts it was not pleasant and I lost more money than I would have if I had listened to my gut but it was a learning experience none the less.

For me it reinforced the idea to bailout of a trade that is not doing or behaving how I anticipate and to wait for a better spot later, this of course will be at odds with giving a trade room to breathe and this conclusion might be influenced by another factor.

I think it's time to admit that my account size is increasingly influencing a lot of my decisions, taking profits to early, choking when trying to execute a trade even taking trades that are far from the best. At this moment in time I have neither the skill nor confidence to overcome this hurdle hence the cessation of trading activities in my futures account. I don't necessarily believe that funding an account more appropriately will suddenly resolve my issues there is something a little deeper than just the account size that's causing problems here.

As far as skill and confidence come into play, I have a few ideas that I plan to test out via chart replay. Once I have a few months (6 months +) testing it over a number of instruments and time frames I will hopefully be able to define more clearly a method for trading which I can take into live sim (result dependant) and see how I work under realtime pressures. Taking the time to establish, test, evaluate and retest is something I have neglected to do in the past as I have been too eager to trade and have often cobbled together a method that was not thoroughly tested prior to going live, This is the first thing I should have done prior to ever trading live.

There are some threads on another forum that have made me think about my method and how I am going to proceed forward, I've noticed a lot of things in my journal and had a lot of ideas that I have struggled to construct in a manner I can work with but these threads have joined a lot of the dots or at least how I understand them and I am very eager to see how what I come up with works.

It might seem doom and gloom but what I'm doing is not working to well and taking the time to go over my plan and method to ensure it is fit for purpose is the best thing I can do right now, once I'm home and have the time to go over my charts I'll try to define what I'm looking at for entries and exits and management of trade ideas.

Gozilla

On a side note, I'm testing psychology swing trading fx in a micro account and find it a little odd when I have so little to lose how indifferent I am as to wether the trade works or not I can only take the trade off S&R set my stops and targets and forget about it, I don't feel inclined to get involved as at most I'm risking .2% a trade and taking 3 of 4 trades a week.

This is one reason I went to M6E. I had to get my trading down to a I don't care size. I needed to be able to execute the trade and not worry about how much I am risking and as well how much it will make.

The next step was create a plan for qualifying a trade, plan to execute the trade, a plan to manage the trade, and then a plan for loss. Once I got that down, then all I was doing is executing whatever plan was in place at the moment. Trying to take as much emotion or guess work out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I still have emotions during trades. But I have my plans printed off and on my desk, once emotions come in I check where I am and what I need to be doing.

One of the ways I got out of second guessing myself during a trade was setting my stops at levels where my trades are no longer valid. So that way if it hasn't hit my stop the trade is still in a position to work. If my stop is hit, I know that my trade failed, end of story. Look for next setup and start to qualify my entry. And as I have found over the last week, getting stopped out on my first trade of the day. That being able to take the second and third trade usually makes up the loss + some. The key is to trade at a size that your account can handle. And to trade small until you have worked your system and mind out. Then scale up once you are consistently profitable.

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  #60 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
This is one reason I went to M6E. I had to get my trading down to a I don't care size. I needed to be able to execute the trade and not worry about how much I am risking and as well how much it will make.

The next step was create a plan for qualifying a trade, plan to execute the trade, a plan to manage the trade, and then a plan for loss. Once I got that down, then all I was doing is executing whatever plan was in place at the moment. Trying to take as much emotion or guess work out of it.

Don't get me wrong, I still have emotions during trades. But I have my plans printed off and on my desk, once emotions come in I check where I am and what I need to be doing.

One of the ways I got out of second guessing myself during a trade was setting my stops at levels where my trades are no longer valid. So that way if it hasn't hit my stop the trade is still in a position to work. If my stop is hit, I know that my trade failed, end of story. Look for next setup and start to qualify my entry. And as I have found over the last week, getting stopped out on my first trade of the day. That being able to take the second and third trade usually makes up the loss + some. The key is to trade at a size that your account can handle. And to trade small until you have worked your system and mind out. Then scale up once you are consistently profitable.

Hit the nail on the head, I may also do as you have done and print out my plan and keep it in line of sight once it is reviewed to refer to in times where indecision or emotion creeps in.

I think I lack confidence in my method hence the reevaluation, Once I take the time to test and evaluate the ideas I have and know them inside out I believe I will be much better off for it, It will be a time consuming effort but I'm kind of looking forward to the challenge.

Gozilla

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