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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #41 (permalink)
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Short update.

Two trades for friday one winner on the YM one loser on NQ.

1. YM Entered long off horizontal support (former resistance on 16th) and touch of lower part of channel. Entry @15313 stop @15304 with a target based on where the upper channel was at the time @15340. Its a little messy for sure how I did this eventually though after price rallied to 336 it started to pull back and I made the move to protect some of my gains by moving stop, At the same time I was moving target based on upper trendline but alas adjusted stop got hit and I was out @15325.

2. NQ Another trade based off trendline but I think in hindsight this was a very poor trade, I dont really like taking trades on at open as I often get shaken out and also I think I was getting a little ahead of myself. Entry @3320 Exit 3317.75 Target best described as more ( trendline play). Inevitably stopped out, now the part the bothers me, I think I was cocky on this. A few times this week I have noted my reluctance to get involved on trendline plays because price is dragging on the line and not really making a move away at previous touches, but here I am taking a trade on a trendline that has existed for four hours, has dragged on the line and has not made any meaningful move away from said line yet I felt I was onto something. The market doesn't care about what I feel, I had the facts right in front of me but chose to be blind to them so I got what I had coming.

Thoughts: I've had time to stew over all this and think about what I am trying to do. I finished the week off positive which is always welcome but I have failed to make the best of the opportunities I have identified. A few of my trades hit adjusted stops despite being good for target I have hesitated alot and made decisions that were based on emotion rather than fact and my level of attention has suffered throughout the week which has caused me to either miss trades or make poor trades.
Moving on I need to consider a target or stop mentality, I have been moving stops around too much lately and yes it has stopped me taking losses it has at the same time stopped my from hitting targets. I need to deal with my hesitation, control my emotions and improve my level of attention.

Gozilla YM+12 NQ-9
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  #42 (permalink)
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Start of a new week.

Two trades one loser and one winner.

1. First trade was on the NQ the long red trendline plotted over the last couple of trading days was finally broken and as price approached the break price I decided to look at a short with the recent low as an initial target. Entry @3355 Target @3348 Stop @3357.25, Trade failed... it just failed. Maybe there was an opportunity to re-enter when price touched trendline but being unsure if it was an overall false break I decided to play it cautious and sit out.

2. Took trade as price came into contact with the trendline also established over last few YM charts, I did have a little concern as the last touch blew through the line but I still felt after watching the price that it might still have some influence. Entry @15310 Stop @15300 (a little tight) Exit @15350. Whole idea was that price could move quite a bit higher like previous touches and with that in mind I may have overlooked possible resistance in the mid 40's. After price moved to the mid 40's I moved my stop to 318 keeping it under the small are of consolidation thinking that if it broke back there the trade would probably fail and go further.

So, my approach this week is to try and stick onto trades a little longer and hold off on hitting panic stations anytime price pulls back a little. I think I gave trade two good space to develop and I tried to hold onto the trade based on the idea that it would go further and onto new highs and this bias may have helped me misjudge the mid 40's as resistance, I think in the case of my adjusted stop it was reasonable I did give a lot back and my original stop is still safe but with price still dragging on the trendline and not really pulling away from it I am looking at shorts as an option for the next day of trade.

With a slight tweak in mind for the rest of week in terms of trying to see trades through to target I expect things to get a little bumpy as I challenge some of my old habits. And it will be important to record whats going on so I can compare them to last week when I saw a lot of good opportunities but failed to maximize them.

Gozilla NQ-9 YM+8
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  #43 (permalink)
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Pretty meh.


Three trades one winner and two losers.

1. YM bear flag setup, with price dropping fast I was looking for any stall as a potential bear flag and with that stall happening between 390 and 405 entered a short sell order to be triggered if price hit 390 again. Target I had in mind was price area prior to ramp up to 459 which put my target @15360. Trade triggered Entry @15390 Stop @15406 Target 15360, price quickly moved to target but stopped a tic short of the mark. I was not surprised to see a little support but I still panicked maybe a little and wanting to protect some of the gains moved my stop to 375 where I got taken out of the trade. Note: Target hit with original stop intact.

2. NQ bull flag, price rallied then stalled above the previous high so looked for a continuation of the move up with the latest break of the trendline in mind for the target. Entry @3360.50 Stop @3357.50 Target @3369. Trade seemed to be working out for a short time then the tide changed and as price moved back to entry I tightened stop a couple of ticks to 3358 and was out.

3. YM H&S setup, Works when I don't take it fails when I do, This was a trickier trade and I think one I should have avoided. Head and shoulder formation which on its own is not the issue but the long running trendline was coming back into play at the neckline I was conflicted on how to play it. I played it wrong and stuck with the H&S with an entry short when price went below original breakout @15368 Stop @15381 and a target @15310. After seeing initial profit noticed price bounce a little off 360 then as it hit the high 50s and bounce again moved my stop tighter with the concern that this was now in fact a trendline play, Stop moved to 15376 where I was hit.

Trade three has given me the most to think about, Two ideas came together to conflict with one another yet I chose to do something rather than choosing to do nothing which in this case would have been the better option.

The whole point of working to achieve consistency is to trade well not trade a lot.

Gozilla YM+7 NQ-10
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  #44 (permalink)
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A bit choppy.

One trade one loser on the YM after watching for a couple of hours after first trade decided it was not a day for trading.

1. Price dropping from recent highs at quite a rate of knots and so like yesterday waited for a stall in price to place a short order once price resumed direction and broke lower. Trade triggered with an entry @15320 Stop @15330 and a target @15305, I think I should be looking at trades that will potentially offer more ticks as I have a habit of bailing early and in hindsight it was in an area of support so I could have left it.

Once I exited the trade I was looking over a few instruments but all I could make out was chop, so to save myself from doing something stupid shut it down for the day.

Gozilla -10
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  #45 (permalink)
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Feel like I'm in a downtrend.

Two trades two losers one on the YM and the other on 6B.

1. YM. Much the same as yesterday, Price moving around a lot in what I thought was the beginning of a range with highs around mid 20's to 30's and a low in the high 80's. As price was hanging around 15430 decided to go short with a stop above the previous highs. Entry @15431 Stop @15439 and Target @15390. Stopped out.

2. 6B. Price came into a trendline and seemed to stutter a little and rather than wait for some kind of rejection I jumped in on the touch as a few trades this week have developed with stops too wide for me to take on the trade. Entry @1.6189 Exit @1.6195 Target down @1.6144 and again stopped out. In hindsight entry on trade might have been on the rejection of 200 but that's hindsight for you.

Starting to get a little frustrated now, I can feel myself wanting to retreat back to the comfort of just aiming for 10-20 ticks regardless of how much I think price is really going to move. In my mind this is a step in the wrong direction, things were going to get bumpy as I tried to keep my hands off the trades and let them run, I will need to persevere a little longer with this as a week is not really enough to come to any conclusions.

Gozilla YM-8 6B-6

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Last edited by Gozilla; October 24th, 2013 at 05:32 PM.
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  #46 (permalink)
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pffff

No trades today and even though there is still a little time left to go I think I'll call it quits and that means I finish the month negative.

Though I did not trade today it does not mean there were no trades on offer, I have allowed my recent results to affect my thinking and as a result I hesitated and missed at least one trade that would have put me at a high in terms of P&L. This reinforces my idea that I have to take every opportunity I identify as long is it is within my rules and I can be clear in my plan for the trade at hand.

Trades I spotted are discussed on chart all I can say is I choked more than I should have today and ended up frustrated to a point that it would have been a bad idea to continue trading.

Looking over my trade activity in terms of P&L I think I have given far too much profits back with a few of the trades I have undertaken, I need to assess my management from being too harsh to too slack but it might be situation dependent so I'll need to refine my overall strategy when it comes to how or when to get involved with the trade. A target or stop approach is a strategy but with some trades I just lose confidence if the action does not follow through so I think it is reasonable at times to move the stops tighter.

Also as noted a couple of posts back the trades you take fail, the ones you don't work... Shakes ma heed,

I'll again have two weeks away to gather my thoughts and will see what I come up with over that time, but I think for now I will continue to work on seeing my trades through to target as those that do make a huge difference to the bottom line.

Gozilla

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  #47 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
Also as noted a couple of posts back the trades you take fail, the ones you don't work... Shakes ma heed,

That's why we have to take them all. If if find a trade painful to take it is about 3X more likely to work than the shabby easy ones I throw in.

Travel Well
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  #48 (permalink)
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Tough break man. Really like the introspection and self awareness. I think that it is just a temporary setback but once you get yourself centered again you'll be profitable on a consistent basis again. Looking forward to your next daily breakdown

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  #49 (permalink)
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Back in action.

Back from two weeks of isolation from the markets and I've had plenty of time to think things over.

I am going to continue along the vein I left off from in trying to let trades run their course more but I need to manage the ones that are X points up then come back to entry, Say once a trade has run to 25-30 ticks profit moving a stop that prevents me losing more than 50% of the gains. This was an issue on some of my trades in my last post but over the next two weeks I will experiment with management a little more to try and protect some of the gains I will potentially make. Of course some of this experimentation will involve a more hands free approach.

Gozilla

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  #50 (permalink)
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1st trade back


One trade today on the 6b and I'm calling it quits as I am too tired to continue as I have come off night shift and still adjusting.

1. Took trade as price hit an established trendline that had developed over the last couple of trading days, price hit trendline and the next candle failed to push higher so I entered as price broke below that second candle. Entry @1.5935 with a stop @1.5942 which was a tick above high and a target price @1.5900. Stop hit.

Thoughts: Its that same old thoughts as usual, price was not really making a lot of effort to move away from the trendline and after a couple of candles I was not entirely convinced the trade was going to work out. Despite this I was going to leave it alone as I was unsure I could make a good decision on the fly.

Screenshot taken right after trade failed as I want to see how it plays out rather than look back in hindsight.

Gozilla 6b -7

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