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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #31 (permalink)
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Aberdeen, Scotland
 
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Combo breaker

You wait all day for a bus then two come at once springs to mind just now.

After 14 losers in a row things finally seem to have gone to plan, well. The last 14 also went to plan they just happened to hit their stops so I guess the streak is over, not the longest I've had but I'm not really trying to set any new records here.

Trade 1: Watched the lows marked off on my last post but as price blew past considered the low from the 11th, price did move through a little but it wont always be perfect. Entered off what I considered a rejection but was a little slow off the mark Long @15291 Stop @15280 Target @15320.
Price rallied to 306-309 and seemed to hesitate after a short period of time started to consider that the lows mentioned earlier may have been having an influence on price. (once support now resistance) At this point after seeing a max run up of 18 ticks decided to move stop to +4 which still gave it room but protected some profit, Price dropped and was stopped out.

Moving stops has been an issue in the past but I felt that it was justified in this case, Seeing price struggle at an area that had been noted as a potential turning point earlier I felt I had to act with the information at the time, the fact price eventually got to target without threatening original stop is besides the point I don't know whats going to happen next I can only plan what I'll do next.

Trade 2: Much clearer trade, established channel and waited for price to hit the upper trendline. Once candle at line closed entered order to short at market @15152 went short with a stop @15163 and a target @15125. Not a whole lot to think about or do on this trade and turns out to be one of the bigger trades since journal inception. Wish they could all be this straight forward.
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Gozilla

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  #32 (permalink)
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Long time no post.

It has been a while since my last post and there has not really been a whole lot to report, between the summer doldrums, work and work related training I have not had a lot of time to sit down and watch the markets like I'm used to.

I have also struggled to stay motivated to trade as it's tough when I do have time to spend the day watching the market and nothing happens, it kind of feels like a wasted day. Sure I can make something happen with one small click but that would undermine my whole plan and approach and I cant let that happen.

Anyway, update since last post: 3 trades 2 losers 1 winner for a total of -1 ticks

The last trade is the only one of the 3 that I took a screenshot of and conveniently its the winning trade.

The idea was to short the retest of the break in the trendline at around 620 but a couple of minutes prior to this and for a couple minutes after I was not paying attention to the price and this on its own is not good enough but I still entered albeit 10 ticks too late which meant I had to have a wider stop which was far from ideal which may have caused me to move my stop rashly once price went in my favour.

Target was based off last touch of trendline possibly giving it a bounce and whilst I considered 560 as my prefered target I had to be honest with myself, realistically if after being up 18 points and seeing price come back to entry I would have panicked out for a couple of ticks, hence the reason I stuck with 590 and I'm happyish with the result.

Overall I think it was a decent trade plan for this trade but I'm disappointed in my execution and lack of attention but its something I can improve on at least.

As for the DOM pic I noticed a lot of orders on the buy side, now I always take it as false advertising but in the short term price still reacts a little, how much credibility can you give it and should you allow yourself to be influenced by these numbers?

Gozillla
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  #33 (permalink)
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Need a little patience


Two trades today and two losers for the effort, I'm not too worried about the first trade but the second trade of the day I am a little disappointed and think my lack of patience may have led to a mistake.

1. Took a long @15314 anticipating a triple bottom at the low point of a range from 15305 to 15365, whilst top of range was in the area of 15365 previous touch of support led to a move up to 15350 so that was my target price with a stop just below the lows from yesterday. Trade failed and stop hit.

2. Price seemed to stall as I waited for price to reach 15365 area, made my move when price seemed to top out at 15359 took it as close enough and shorted @15351 target was bottom of range @15305 stop @15359 in hindsight it should have been at least a tick higher so that was a mistake I should have amended immediately but I dithered a little.

So, first trade I can take as a loser it just did not work out. The second trade however is a bit of a struggle and my timing was iffy at best. I over thought it and assumed that price was struggling to make it higher, whilst the possibility of it actually getting to 15365 was on my mind for an ideal entry I took the trade on at 15351 and it failed.

This brings up something that I often struggle with, when price is moving to an area for an entry or an exit but stops or hesitates short of the ideal price I feel almost forced to take the trade on, on terms that are not entirely of my own making. I often wait for price to get to entry but it stalls and then moves to target or I enter and watch price move to ideal price which means carrying a stop that ends up being bigger than it could have been if I waited, and whilst jumping the gun can at times pay off it exposes me to a little more risk than I need to take. Ideally with my entry being where it is a stop should have been north of 15365 it may have been hit but its all hindsight now.

I need to remind myself to be patient and take the trades on my terms and not to fear missing an opportunity as there will be plenty more in the future to take advantage of.

Gozilla -19
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  #34 (permalink)
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Emotions, emotions everywhere.

Trading tired can lead mistakes and emotions taking the hot seat for the duration of the trade, today was a good example of this and as a result of letting my emotions take over I over managed a position and missed out on a potential target hitting trade.

Took trade short off touch of trendline that has been in effect since the 19th also coming into horizontal resistance at 15300 (see last post). Entry was a little late @15288 with a target @15255 and a stop at the recent highs @15304. For a while I thought I was going to get stopped out as price seemed to be holding the line at the time I really wanted to close it out ahead of stop. However, I left it alone and eventually moved to a positive footing then dropped to 13271.

As price stalled in this area I noticed the red line support and it threw me a little, My thoughts were: It's come to a short term rising support, it struggled to move away from the falling and horizontal resistance, it did not get very far before hitting a bump this may be a potential move back to 300 and a break to the upside. Also after being up 17 ticks I did not want to take a loss on the trade and as I had convinced myself it was only going up moved my stop to 15281 and got taken out.

In hindsight my fear of losing profit clouded my judgement. I over analyzed what I was seeing as I believe that the descending resistance over 6 days and the resistance at 15300 would have had more effect than an intraday support, I could have afforded to let the the trade run its course but my emotions got too involved in the decision making process.

Gozilla +7
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  #35 (permalink)
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Hands Free

Two trades today 1 winner, 1 loser.

1. Went long just after open as price rallied, stalled and created a bull flag. My entry was based on price breaking higher @15272 with a stop under the lows @15262 and even though I thought price could go a little higher to 12305 was ok to set the target @12300. Target hit.
I struggled to keep my hands off the trade as it unfolded and had to keep reminding myself to let it play out as planned prior to taking it on, at most I kept a trailing stop at the lows two candles back and it seemed to work out ok this time.

2. Trade idea was a head and shoulder pattern, the second shoulder was a little messy and my entry short was a little haphazard at best entry @15215 stop @15226 and a target decided by head to neckline which was 100 points putting the target at around 15120. Stop hit.
I think I got a little carried away in my idea of the pattern and then traded it poorly, Ideally I should have waited for a cleaner break of the neckline and either an orderly retest of the neckline or a flag pattern of some description. Either way the trade failed and as price seemed to spend as much time as it did at the neckline, going long in that area with stops at or below the lows could have been a consideration.

Gozilla +17
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  #36 (permalink)
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Taking stock

Now back and in a position to participate in the markets. No trades since last update but ended positive after costs for the month of September, a rare occurrence but one I feel I can make more common in the future.

The last six weeks have given me time to think about my trading and the changes I have made and noticed since the start of this journal, I am starting to see the benefit of recording my thoughts, tracking my trades and the reasoning behind the decisions I make. Whilst I will never know it all about trading I can at least say that I have developed a much better understanding of why I do what I do and so continue to work on the issues that have hindered my decisions since I first dipped my toe in the markets.

In general I feel less fearful when I am in a trade and more reliant on my trade plan to see the trade through to fruition. I may of course struggle to stay hands free for the duration as new information that comes onto screen can give you pause for thought and may alter your perception of an ongoing trade but for the best part I am more comfortable when in a trade as the decisions are made prior to entry.

I am now looking at trading other things besides the YM as days can often go by without being able to see a trade, whilst this helps exercise patience I feel I am potentially missing opportunities elsewhere and for this reason I have started to look at the NQ and 6B (low tic value) nothing is set in stone yet though these are just ideas I am looking at for the time being.

Gozilla

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  #37 (permalink)
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A little rusty

One trade today, a few observations made and a couple of opportunities missed.

1. Took trade on assuming that it was a breakdown and retest of that break, I would like to have seen a slightly bigger move through but it'll do, Price seemed to pull back from trendline and I took this as a signal to enter with entry @15174 and a stop above the high of the proceeding candle @15185 targets set at red horizontals on charts with the overall idea that price could move to the lower part of the larger channel. Unfortunately price still had a little bit to go and it moved to stop and I was out.

I'm really not sure about it, what happened in terms of price movement after I was stopped out does not have much relevance or at least it shouldn't but I have been thinking alot about it. I felt price had peaked and was on it's way down which explains entry, Stop was above the highs at the trendline so I think it was ok but my struggle is maybe it was a little tight, lines are rarely perfect and price will pierce them a little. On the other side at what point does a wider stop become a bad stop if my stop was at 90 and price hit 91 would I still ask this question and if the price moved back into channel and onward to upper trendline I think I would be questioning my reason for entry.

I think it's fine but I may need to consider giving trades a little leeway when testing trendlines or even consider reentry if a better price presents itself.

A. Was watching the trade unfold but was not keen on placing a trade early on and was also a little distracted creating previous post, It's a long way to 15260 and I think I may have bailed out if there was any decent pullbacks after price breaking 15200 (psychological number)

B. Explained on chart, returned to line after failing to make much progress to upper portion of channel and did so in a reasonably short period of time, also pierced the line to me even though there is still potential for upside I am becoming more bearish and feel a stronger move down is on the cards.

C. Just support from A and B lining up as resistance for C price gave it a few hits in the mid 50's but failed to pass I thought about it but mentally I had thrown in the towel for the day so was happy (as I can be) to watch the trade play out.

No considerations for longs at 100 as I am prepared for price to hit lower trendline.

If the trade had worked I have no idea if I would have rid it down, most likely outcome would have been for a trailing stop to get tagged in the mid 50's but I am a work in progress and I like to think I could have the patience to let it run a little more.

I am trying to get myself into the zone where I would take on A, B and C even with B being a little sketchy the potential today was huge.

Gozilla -11
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Last edited by Gozilla; October 15th, 2013 at 07:58 PM.
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  #38 (permalink)
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Patterns everywhere

Whilst I primarily trade the YM I missed a good opportunity an hour after open then price seemed to meander and I started to think more about NQ and 6B and so watched those as well as YM.

1. 6B in particular gave a number of possibilities which for the best part I passed on except for one. With price approaching lows from 9-10 and 15th was looking for a possible long but was hesitating given the drop to it and whilst procrastinating like I do price dropped below support, now I was looking at a retest and a short. Decided to take it despite price coming back above and entered short @1.5909 with a stop @1.5918 however my target was not so clear, I could see possible support at around 1.5885ish but I was looking for a larger move down. With uncertainty about target trailed my stop and eventually got hit @1.5896

2. NQ watched price breakout and retest and continued to keep an eye on it but like the YM after the move it seemed to meander alot, eventually the trendline came into play and went long thinking it might go to new highs however thought that 75-76 may offer a struggle so opted to set target at 3275.

I think I might be jumping the gun a little by getting involved with other instruments so soon, but I have been paper trading them for a while and I convinced myself that I was only trading the patterns and what I was trading was less relevant even though I'm sure each has it's own little nuances the patterns presenting themselves could be taken from any instrument or time frame.

Still need to work on my conviction and level of attentiveness during the day, Rest of my thoughts are on the charts.

Gozilla 6B+13 NQ+14
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  #39 (permalink)
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Digging the trendline trading. Gonna take a look throughout the journal when I get a chance. Subscribed

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  #40 (permalink)
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Hatchet job today


Three trades today 1 winner on the YM and a loser each on the YM and NQ this might be a big post

YM to start off with.

1. Looked to short off of perceived resistance at around 15225 and after price spiked through and closed near it's lows took an entry as price broke under candle, Entry @15220 with a target on the larger trendline at the time @15190 and a stop above the highs @15231. Trade seemed to be working and managed to resist the temptation to get too hands on as price see-sawed but as price hit 200 and stalled I was less confident of continuation and so moved my stop to 15212 still leaving it with room but it was taken out none the less for a small gain.

2. Price broke above resistance based on yesterdays support and again though testing my patience and stop started to move on the right direction entry @15258 Stop @15248 whilst upper horizontal was what I was thinking about I set target @15290. Price seemed to get stuck at 15270-71 and I stepped in and moved stop under the assumption that it may not be following through stop moved to 15254 got hit and out of the trade. More on this later

3. NQ: Ugh lots on this but we will focus on the trade right now, Looking at a head and shoulder formation so took a trade on the break of the neckline, Entry @3283 Stop@3285 and a target down at earlier support @3277 leaving a point on the table.

Thoughts on trades, May of underestimated the effect of a round number in 200 on trade one as earlier price movement breezed past it with little effort but I reacted to it at the time reasonably I think. As for the second trade I was impatient and I think the main deciding factor in moving my stop was not to take a full hit that would put me negative at this point in time the channel was not noticed, a bit of a downer to see it get to target whilst original stop still intact but I made a decision I'll live with it. On the last trade I did not have the red trendline drawn at that point in time wick to wick body to body or wicks and bodies you dont tend to see them until after the fact, this line may have affected my decision.

The analysis: Missed some glaringly obvious trades today with one on the YM and a couple between NQ and 6B, when it comes to trendlines I need to experiment with placement and watch price at those levels to see if there is any reaction that I can take advantage of.

Gozilla YM+4 NQ-8
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Last edited by Gozilla; October 17th, 2013 at 09:32 PM.
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