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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #211 (permalink)
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Trending daze.

I think a picture is starting to emerge, but, I have more to do before I can make any conclusions. I am tracking trending days in an effort to learn a better way of managing them, I am also looking for trending days that throw the odd curve ball in order to analyse what is happening when things change and how I can take advantage of it.

The first chart is started in the minutes leading into the open, but, before that there was a drop overnight from the previous days high, this drop came to a climactic end 135 points later creating the low for the day 70 minutes after open, price then starts trending up trying to claw back some of what it has lost.

Whilst the breaks themselves are not major, price moves up at a faster pace and when it retraces back to the stride, these retracements can represent large point changes, this might be what @DbPhoenix referred to when one should clench their teeth.

The larger breaks at the start of the up move after the climactic drop may be explained by the action that proceeded the rally, sharp moves can have sharp counter moves so it may take time for the volatility to die down and let the action go at more sustainable pace.

The second chart has a little more going on, but, I have explained my thinking on the chart.

Gozilla.
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  #212 (permalink)
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Chart dissection.

Some of these charts are going to look quite messy, but, not all days are clear cut and one will have to learn to deal with days like this.

The following charts will have periods of chop or indecisive PA which can make things a little hard to track, there will be times where a decision will have to be made as to whether one wants to sit out or jump into the grinder, nothing wrong with sitting on your hands until the picture clears up.

First chart opens with high volatility breaking both sides of the PM range before dropping 40 points off highs, high volatility seems to equate to big point break reversals, if price can reach the PM range one might use a different tactic and pick off the reversals in this area, but, for now the focus is on trend continuations and break reversals.

PA did not seem to settle down until the lead up to lunch when we had some small trends that could have been taken advantage of if one is not put off by the unfolding hinge and range. As there are a number of things that could be done, and one never knows what will happen next a thoroughly tested plan would dictate the course of action.
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The next two charts are the same one with different time frames, one on the 1 minute and the other on 5 minutes, I did this to show myself that all that chop in and around the hinge does not look like that big a deal on the 5 minute. In fact in hindsight I think I over analysed the 1 minute, but, I would have done this in real time, even the initial breakout on the 5 minute seems a lot more straight forward.

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The second break on the 5 minute is tracked from the initial break better viewed on the 1 minute, price eventually moved higher without testing this break and the MAE was only 4.25.
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Last edited by Gozilla; May 7th, 2015 at 03:42 PM.
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  #213 (permalink)
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If you have questions, feel free to ask. Otherwise I'm going to leave you alone. I understand what process is about, and you should be given the opportunity to make your own discoveries. Fortunately, you don't have tons of strangers jumping in to give you advice that has nothing to do with what you're trying to accomplish.

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  #214 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
If you have questions, feel free to ask. Otherwise I'm going to leave you alone. I understand what process is about, and you should be given the opportunity to make your own discoveries. Fortunately, you don't have tons of strangers jumping in to give you advice that has nothing to do with what you're trying to accomplish.

Thanks for your help DB, I'm going to be churning these out for a while yet until I feel I have a varied enough sample size to test out.

Gozilla.

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  #215 (permalink)
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I should point out that you're doing superior work. This is what everyone should do and nobody does, or has done (except for Gringo and 40D), though lajax will get to it eventually (the need to do it becomes self-evident).

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  #216 (permalink)
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Brought back memories.

I knew I was home on the date of this chart and could not figure out why it seemed so familiar. I recalled watching the day unfold starting pre-market and right through to the close, I was studying ranges at the time so had no interest in actively trading, this however did not stop me mentally shorting the FBO of the PM range and riding nearly all the way to the close.

All that aside, this is another chart with a lot going on and there are certain issues that could come up that a trader could struggle with.

There is a lot of HTF multiday context that may explain why price stalls at certain levels, there is also the effect of price departing the line, at one point price departs line A by such an extent that it represents 40 points on the vertical, price rarely goes vertical unless something exceptional happens, by the time line A is broken it only represents 11 points from lows at the break.

With price departing the line by such a large margin it might be wise to track it, in this instance it does move a long way, but, the move eventually goes sideways until the SL catches up to it.
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There are quite a few deviations that may represent micromanagement, but, that is what can happen on a 1 minute chart. Alternatively, once one has entered the trade and has the first retrace, switch to a higher time frame for management.
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And a chart I posted elsewhere that might go some way into explaining some of the intraday action, I mentally exited this after the bounce off the 43 when price poked above a range at 57, in hindsight this was a mistake, but, it was all in my head.
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Gozilla.

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  #217 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post

And a chart I posted elsewhere that might go some way into explaining some of the intraday action, I mentally exited this after the bounce off the 43 when price poked above a range at 57, in hindsight this was a mistake, but, it was all in my head.

What might you have done to avoid this?

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  #218 (permalink)
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What might you have done to avoid this?

I think the answer is in the work I am doing, I knew at the time price was ranging, when it came back to the previous swing high it broke it by a point +/-. If I understood the MAE at the time and was disciplined in the application of this knowledge I would have held the short. I might have lost a couple more points out of the 90, but, once price resumed direction it dropped a further 20 points into the close, my exit based on fear took me out of the trade 35 points too early.

Gozilla.

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  #219 (permalink)
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Some will scream "curve-fitting" and "data mining", but there's nothing wrong with going over the chart again, and recording just how far price goes for you and against you in relation to the line and the swing points. It takes far less time than puzzling it out in new chart after new chart. The point is to give yourself something to practice, not make unnecessary work. In fact, there's nothing wrong with going over it several times until you've optimized the trades, when you get to that step. Then you have something to work with. Even though what you end up with will have to be changed through implementation, at least you again have something to start with, and you'll arrive at your rules much faster.

I go through replays myself. It's a form of practice, like a driving range or batting cage or fingering exercises or scales. It enables me to begin the day without having to think about how I'm going to trade (after I've done the prep). Beats trading by "feel".

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  #220 (permalink)
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Some of the reversals turn out to be larger deviations, but, as one never knows what will happen next one must follow what is happening now.

Gozilla.
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