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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #11 (permalink)
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I was unable to spend alot of time watching the markets and only took one trade for the day but looking at the chart in hindsight I don't think I missed a whole lot.

The one and only trade: Watched a short term level of resistance at 15178 and initially considered a range to develop between there and mid 50's, Price eventually broke resistance and moved higher so waited for a quick pullback, Entered long @15180 with a stop @15173 I was a little unsure about target 15220 may have been a little far fetched but was also had 200 as a possible exit point. Felt a little anxious once in as I would have liked breakout to have gone a little further before retesting and as it came back below 80 started to think I got suckered into a fake out, I held on as stop was close by anyway.
Price quickly rallied from there but seemed to hit a roadblock at 95, moved stop to 86 and as price stalled at 95 had my doubts about price rallying further DOM (thin on YM) had a lot of larger orders on the sell side, eventually gave into emotions and moved target to 93 for immediate fill.

Lesson: Whilst I got out near highs I made a decision to exit on emotion DOM was repping a lot of orders on the sell side a few points off market I know that these may not actually go through and that they could be just for show, also time and sales seemed to go nuts whenever price hit 95 with sellers hitting market, I had a gut feeling about exit but not a conscious decision based on fact, I don't think I know enough yet about making judgements based on DOM and T&S this could have been a little pullback instead of a reversal and potentially I might have missed out on a pretty good trade.

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Gozilla

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  #12 (permalink)
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Had a shocker.

Stopped out for the day 3 losers in a row 1 poorly handled and 2 plain bad, so lets get started.

1. Really slow at getting into the trade probably 10 points to slow, trade was in profit off the bat as price hit high of 15177 felt comfortable enough to move stop to BE I completely ignored the trend line and as a result incurred a 1 point loss. If I see a trend and trade a trend why cant I work with the trend?

2. Interpreted move as a flag breakout and traded as such as chart points out no specific number in mind just keeping the upper (blue dash line) in mind for a profit objective, As price rallied I moved stop up behind, stop stood @15210 and hit. Realised once in trade that 220 which I felt might have been a target yesterday was close by and should have exited at any sign of trouble but got greedy and held and hoped for price to keep pushing.

3. Somehow convinced myself this was a double top so entered took short and for a while felt a little comfortable then as price came back the more logical part of my brain started to point out the flaws, In trend mid channel, target gets closer with every candle. Double tops to me = Trend, break of trend, retest of highs from trend, Fail.

Lesson: Actually learn from your lessons and don't trade tired as too many mistakes were made on a day with good potential.
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So 3 straight losers for the day and a whole lot of poor management thrown in for good measure.
-10

Gozilla

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  #13 (permalink)
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Need to get my act together


No post yesterday as there was not much to explain took a trade early on in the day after price seesawed for a stretch got out for +4 and called it a day on the live and tried to sim trade the chop and failed miserably.

That brings us onto todays action which there seemed to be quite a lot of but the usual story comes to the fore.

1. Break of short term trend with possible move up to 14850. Think I miss analyzed and got my entry wrong blue line shows where I was toggling between as possible entries on a break of the line, I lacked patience and tried to make a trade fit.

2. A lot more straight forward, area was acting as support and thought that we were possibly entering a range between 14790 and 14850. Started to move stop behind price once it started to rally but trying to keep enough distance to avoid being wicked out, eventually got stopped out for +10 not so sure about the stop and wonder if I gave back more than I should have or given it more room. Trade management is still something I am struggling with.
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Notes from the day:
I flick between a couple of different time frames as things can seem clearer from a different perspective, Today I could see a lot of the same things playing out over all the charts but lacked the conviction and confidence to take the trades as they presented themselves. I am my own worst enemy trading with too much emotion at times, I'm trying to overcome years of poor trading and losses that have left there mark over the years, I'm working hard to change but it is a very slow process but a process I can come through all the better for.

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Gozilla

Also I like to watch how patterns play out, H&S was a 70 point target on break price blew past the target but it retested the target as resistance offering a double top at the bottom (if I make any sense) or as some might refer to it "resistance" just seems a little coincidental how it works out like that.

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  #14 (permalink)
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Quick update

Internet has been really patchy since Friday hopefully its all in order, no charts for Friday's action just a recap of the week that has been.

Friday: 1 profit, 2 losers for a total of -11 points taking the weekly tally to a grand total of -1 tick commission not included.

Good points: My thoughts on the week that had been are positive despite the re-occurrence of some mistakes previously highlighted in the journal, I allowed more trades to run a little instead of freaking out at +8 ticks planned my trades out a little more thoroughly and made some progress when it comes to stop and target placement.

Bad points: My lack of conviction once identifying an opportunity has been frustrating, this will not be something that is solved overnight but at the same time I ask myself why not? I also need to be more realistic when setting targets and stops and accept the risks involved once in. Also being realistic with my approach i.e will I really hold to target or will I get stopped/get out by small oscillations in price between entry and target this is one of my bigger hurdles that I am struggling with as I just want to bank the ticks on any small gain I can at minute and this is slowing my progress down a lot.

Now that I keep a journal I find it frustrating to repeat the same mistakes over and over again as it is very easy to sweep your own fallibility under the carpet when you do not keep your thoughts, ideas and learning's in the one place you must revisit time and time again this is a timeline of my trading life I need to be patient and understand this is a marathon not a sprint.

Agenda for the week ahead: Prepare for the day ahead prior to market open, Trade with the trend if trend becomes evident, trade only at extremes of range and channel none of this mid channel nonsense that chewed me up last week. (do not understand mid channel enough) Work on level of conviction, continue to allow trades to breath a little +10 is good +20 if reasonable is better, wait for confirmation and trade retests but try and leave initial breakouts alone.

And last but not least continue to look listen and learn, I have spent when able to much of the weekend contemplating my approach and going through the many threads on here and have found numerous excellent threads that have helped me to think more about how I think about trading, it is encouraging to see others that have been where I think I am and have moved to where I want to be.

I think I think to much.
Gozilla

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  #15 (permalink)
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Those stops again.

Thought it was an interesting day yesterday, plenty of setups on offer to be taken advantage of but I had limited myself in yesterdays post to weed out some of the more edgier trades and I think I achieved that to some degree.

So I will start off with the trades first then move onto the other opportunities/thoughts.

1. This was the third touch of this price but the first time outside the trend and was ready to trade as a triple/double bottom (double as it was outside the downtrend) Entry @14488 target @14510 (considered 14560 and 14520 as high from first bounce of price) as I just wanted a quick trade for the first of the week stop @14474. Initially price moved up but stalled in the mid 90's after watching this over a few minutes convinced myself it was coming down and resuming down move, moved stop to 14482 and out.

2. Set up as range resistance, went short @14550 target @14525 stop @14560 as price moved quickly into profit started to trail stop behind as price went +14 re adjusted target to 14530 moved stop to 14545 price bounced and hit stop.

3. Had now established channel and looking for shorts to the downside entry off candle @14658 target 14630 (most recent low) stop @14670 patience was tested on stop but held ground, as price approached target I kept my distance with the stop but I moved target to 14634 as an idea popped into my head price was going to stall prior to target. Target hit. Whilst happy with the result of the trade I could or should have let it move to lower part of channel or even stayed in as long as it was within the channel, This is my idea of where I would like to be when I enter a trade to be able to hold until it runs its course.

Moving my stops too soon or too much was a killer for me on the first 2 trades of the day as both trades offered great potential I am stuck between protecting my account by limiting losses but harming my account from loss of potential it is a difficult balancing act, but one that I hope to improve on.

The opportunities not taken are explained on the chart.
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+23
Gozilla

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  #16 (permalink)
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Messy day today.

Not such a clear cut day today until of course you look back a see what has happened over the course of the day, I'll keep it short and sweet.

1. Red channel is where I had my lines drawn at the time this was an error on my part that led to a trade on poor analysis. Entered where I thought upper channel was being rejected was good for 10 seconds then stopped out. Entry @14670 stop @14680 target recent low @14640.

2. Entered off candle on trend line @14682 Target @14710 stop @14670 felt it was an area of resistance if it got there it would be third time of the day in this area. Initially was confident in the trade but as time progressed became uneasy, price did not seem to peel off the line whilst price was increasing I would have liked to have seen price move a little more to upper part of channel. Decided to move stop up a lot more and got taken out @14679.

3. Now in the short term looking to the downside, even though price had made a move above the channel entered short @14700 (poor entry as candle had not closed out) target set @14650 stop @14707 this was tight given I only had 7 ticks left in the day to hitting my daily stop loss. Price moved down 20 points and at this point I moved stop to +10 and decided stop or target nothing gets moved. Stop hit.

It was very tempting today after the first two trades to use a wide stop that would take me beyond my daily stop and justifying it because I had a profit yesterday. I need to protect my gains and keep a lid on this as I have been here before and it did not work out to well last time.

I am also giving consideration to using a wider daily stop as 20 ticks a day does not offer a lot of flexibility but this is further down the road as my main focus is to trade smarter and work out the kinks in how I think when I'm trading.

-3
Gozilla
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1 for 1

Short and sweet 1 trade for the day as was unable to be at the screens all day.

Took short entry at top of channel for a further move down, slight mistake made when putting in the order but it was for the good this time. Initially set target for the previous lows @14778. Struggled to keep my cool in the 90's as price oscillated a lot (in my mind) but held the stop at 812 as price moved to target I started to play with target price moving it between 80 and 70ish where I felt it would hit bottom of channel, Price hit low 80's and I chickened out moved order to 80 got hit.


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+24
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Bit of a sloppy day with a couple of mistakes that could have been handled a little better.

1. Price was approaching S/R at 14970 see 30 min chart, was a little eager on the entry and entered on anticipation of break of candle on 1 min chart entry @14965 target mid 40's stop @14972. Despite stop being where it was ended up out @14974 due to slippage on my whole contract.

Lesson: Think I might have gotten a little slack with my entries by entering before the break and it cost me also should stick to 1 time frame for entries and use the others to compliment as there was no entry on the usual 400 tick chart.

2. Did not have a lot of time to plan this one out, drew channel right after the second touch from above at 14950 price had already touched trend again and was still moving up so entered @14975 looking for high 90's stop was @14965. Price moved to 95 and stuttered a little and was unsure if this was as high as it was going bearing in mind 15000 was going to offer resistance shifted order to 14992 and got filled.

3. This was a get in prior to confirmation trade as I thought price could shift away from the line quick. Long @14971 as price touched trend line stop @14965 target @14991 stop moved up on confirmation to 14968 and after a brief run up got stopped out.

Notes: Was pretty keen to short break of channel and the retest of channel in the mid 90's but it's not something I have worked with enough to feel comfortable with as I like to see a bit more space between the break and retest as I cant differentiate well enough between a real change of trend and a fake break.

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+5
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  #19 (permalink)
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Positive week for a change

Again no charts for Friday, seemed to be getting on the wrong side of things most of the day 3 negative 1 positive overall -14 for the day.

Weekly recap: +35 for the week which is a very rare occurrence as most positive weeks over a long stretch of time are rarely over 30 ticks and most losers are more or less of the same amount if not a little more with the addition of comms. Whilst I made changes at the start of the week I need to be mindful that this is only 1 week of results and as such I have to treat this as an exception and not the norm. In terms of trades taken this is also one of the lowest volume weeks I have had this year and I think that comes down to the rules I set out to stop myself taking trades which are outside what I consider the better setups, I feel I will have to stick with these rules for a few more weeks/months but I can see myself ripping down the house to reexamine the foundations as I think I need to strengthen the base before taking on the more questionable trades.

All together I am quite positive about the changes I have made for the best part, I exercised patience and waited for the trades to come to me, I executed the trades when they presented themselves instead of choking, I allowed more of the trades to get past the 8-12 point mark which is usually where I panic out and it was these trades that made it past this area that made all the difference to the bottom line, the fact is in recent months I had been just aiming for 10 ticks and this is not really how I want to trade but it is where I had gotten to as trades were consistently getting to the 8-12 tick area before coming back to entry. It has been a struggle at times to leave trades alone to give them space to move and it will be a continuing struggle to let them move to fulfill the targets I set out but it is something that I can achieve with time and effort.

Next week there are not a whole lot of days to work on this due to holidays in the US but moving forward with my plan I aim to stick to last weeks approach but the changes I will have to make are: Stop moving my stops so aggressively behind, they have saved my in terms of lessening losses but they have cost me more by getting out of good trades too early. Continue to work on allowing trades to move to target or leave them to stay in trend where applicable.

My stats for the week are below, this is not something I will do often but I want to post it for myself to show that sticking to a plan does pay off.
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Gozilla

Also I'm starting to notice problems on the long side of things my overall win rate over the last 3 weeks is at 18% over 11 trades, I know 11 trades is a small sample but at what point does a sample become big enough to point out any serious flaws?


Last edited by Gozilla; June 30th, 2013 at 09:42 PM.
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Gozilla View Post
Again no charts for Friday, seemed to be getting on the wrong side of things most of the day 3 negative 1 positive overall -14 for the day.

Weekly recap: +35 for the week which is a very rare occurrence as most positive weeks over a long stretch of time are rarely over 30 ticks and most losers are more or less of the same amount if not a little more with the addition of comms. Whilst I made changes at the start of the week I need to be mindful that this is only 1 week of results and as such I have to treat this as an exception and not the norm. In terms of trades taken this is also one of the lowest volume weeks I have had this year and I think that comes down to the rules I set out to stop myself taking trades which are outside what I consider the better setups, I feel I will have to stick with these rules for a few more weeks/months but I can see myself ripping down the house to reexamine the foundations as I think I need to strengthen the base before taking on the more questionable trades.

All together I am quite positive about the changes I have made for the best part, I exercised patience and waited for the trades to come to me, I executed the trades when they presented themselves instead of choking, I allowed more of the trades to get past the 8-12 point mark which is usually where I panic out and it was these trades that made it past this area that made all the difference to the bottom line, the fact is in recent months I had been just aiming for 10 ticks and this is not really how I want to trade but it is where I had gotten to as trades were consistently getting to the 8-12 tick area before coming back to entry. It has been a struggle at times to leave trades alone to give them space to move and it will be a continuing struggle to let them move to fulfill the targets I set out but it is something that I can achieve with time and effort.

Next week there are not a whole lot of days to work on this due to holidays in the US but moving forward with my plan I aim to stick to last weeks approach but the changes I will have to make are: Stop moving my stops so aggressively behind, they have saved my in terms of lessening losses but they have cost me more by getting out of good trades too early. Continue to work on allowing trades to move to target or leave them to stay in trend where applicable.

Gozilla

Also I'm starting to notice problems on the long side of things my overall win rate over the last 3 weeks is at 18% over 11 trades, I know 11 trades is a small sample but at what point does a sample become big enough to point out any serious flaws?

I too suffered from many things you mentioned from your entry, like going past X ticks profitable, moving stops, letting the trade work to hit target, but you did mention about building a strong foundation and moving forward from there. The fact that you're patient is a good thing!

Long story short, I'm a recruit with TST looking for the same things you are, consistency in my results, but more importantly, the process.

I've enrolled in TSTU's CTD, and its already paying off in terms of learning what I thought I knew, but really did not know. I am not benefiting financially by promoting their course.

https://futures.io/vendors-product-reviews/27894-topstep-trader-university-college-trader-development-tstu-ctd.html

If you have not looked into TST as tool to aid in your development, its gonna cost a lot of money on your own.

Watch the orientation intro video and decide for yourself if the course is something for you, and be honest with yourself. Everything Bob mentions is true, I did not believe it until I saw the videos myself after learning about what I did not know.

All the best in your journey and hope to see you in the CTD Office Hours.

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