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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.


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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

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  #101 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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As the title suggests today was a better day and was positive by enough of a margin to end the week positive, not by a much but I have to take every small victory I can.

Most of the trades were taken off the 1 minute chart but as there were 7 trades in 90 minutes it's harder to follow the action so I am annotating the usual 300 tick.

Took a break after 7 as I was unsure if I should shut it down with a profit for the week or risk ending with a loss to put me in the red.

Points of interest and differences between this chart and the 1 minute.

A. First retrace of the break of the down move just after the open, this was not so clear on the 1 minute chart.
B. Third touch of a trend line an entry here could have been taken on the quick retrace right after this touch.
3. It's a long on the 300 tick where I took this trade from, but a short on the 1 minute as the line is already broken.
C. After the line is broken there is a quick retrace giving an entry short at around 3473.
4. Entry could have been sooner but I may have gotten shaken out.
D. First possible retrace but it's fast and not evident on the 1 minute.

So that is the end of the first week back trading live this year, it's been interesting to say the least hopefully I can continue to build on it but I expect a few more bumps on the road in the weeks ahead.

Gozilla +61




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  #102 (permalink)
 TheShrike 
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Just found your journal Gozilla. Thanks for taking the time to post your trades and your thoughts. I'm now subscribed.

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  #103 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Well, For all intensive purposes I am stopped out for the day and it is a good lesson on what happens when you ignore the plan and let old habits slip in.

It's going to be a brief recap for the first four trades as there is not much to say with them.

1. Price had made a steep climb prior to open but the pace dropped off before hitting 3472, price dropped off before breaking the slower trend line, it retraced back to this trend line but failed to make a new high. Short triggered but was later than it should have been, there was a drop in price but it got stuck at 3461.25 after four bars failed to break lower I exited the trade.

2. Another retrace back to the break, fails to break previous swing high so triggered a short, this time it fails to go anywhere and begins to rally, trade exited. (previous high intact)

3. Thought that 3461 area was acting as support earlier and this looked like the first retrace back to that area now as resistance. Again price did not seem to follow through and this period so trade was exited.

4. Another late entry on retracement after the down move is broken, exit is a little sloppy but nothing serious.

5. Price being squeezed between ascending and descending trend lines, in hindsight the break above the descending was pretty poor but in real time it sucked me in, break out 1 bar retraced the next bar broke higher in the 3rd bar where my buy stop was triggered.

The part that bothers me the most was I knew it was a less than best trade, that if it came back into the triangle it would probably go out the other side but even though I knew this I still gave it enough room and time to put me out of action for the day.

Notes: I became hesitant to take trades after trade 3 as price was not really following through and this resulted in missing later possibilities and sluggish entries/exits thereafter. If in doubt get out/stay out.

Gozilla -19

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  #104 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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Looking at your earlier trade results log and judging by the 'run-up' (duplicated in 'max open profit') you appear to have a dynamite scalping system or way of finding entries - why not use it as such, instead of letting winners turn to losers, or am I missing something?

Also, I think journals benefit their writers more when they say 'I felt this or I did this' rather than faffing with a 'price did this/price did that' discourse. You seem to switch between the two modes, maybe that in itself can help identify what state you are/were in.

Anyway, my prattle is usually about the gunk between the ears, one day I'll get to price.

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  #105 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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ratfink View Post
Looking at your earlier trade results log and judging by the 'run-up' (duplicated in 'max open profit') you appear to have a dynamite scalping system or way of finding entries - why not use it as such, instead of letting winners turn to losers, or am I missing something?

Also, I think journals benefit their writers more when they say 'I felt this or I did this' rather than faffing with a 'price did this/price did that' discourse. You seem to switch between the two modes, maybe that in itself can help identify what state you are/were in.

Anyway, my prattle is usually about the gunk between the ears, one day I'll get to price.

Usually as soon as I think a trade is not going to work I would exit the trade, but sometimes I over react to what is really only a couple of ticks of adverse action in what would be a decent trade. So what I try to do is if the trade is positive but by only a few ticks I will still allow it to come back to BE or take a small loss in order to give it just a little bit of space as not to get kicked out for nothing.

If it doesn't work straight off the bat I would normally exit rapidly as the order is meant to get swept into the momentum of the unfolding direction.

However I messed up on trade 5, I was perhaps a little frustrated that the trades were not following through and at this point I knew price was a little choppy with all those overlapping bars but I was determined that it would work, I had no profit at any time and whilst the trade lasted 24 seconds I had at least 5-10 seconds to get out with a small loss which I knew I should have done but I was determined that it would work and "hoped" that the small loss I was looking at was as bad as it was going to get.

I often have a good idea of what I should be doing but doing it can be tough at times and yes I do go into two modes at times and end up in conflict. It boils down to a lack of consistency, I need to keep myself in the game long enough to catch the eventual trade that does run and I need to keep the emotion out of the decision making process.

Gozilla

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  #106 (permalink)
 ratfink 
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Gozilla View Post
I often have a good idea of what I should be doing but doing it can be tough at times and yes I do go into two modes at times and end up in conflict. It boils down to a lack of consistency, I need to keep myself in the game long enough to catch the eventual trade that does run and I need to keep the emotion out of the decision making process.

Gozilla

I think you have much more than a good idea of what you're doing and still think if you forgot about hanging on for the 'big runner' your retained profits would be stellar, even if you only kept half the max run-ups. Keep rocking.

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  #107 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Another down day and of a repeat of yesterdays performance, I feel I am more active in the first half hour than I should be and it is a problem I'll have to give some thought to addressing this. Also like yesterday I struggled with really poor trade selection and had a mistake in there for good measure.

In the lead up to open I had the overnight highs and the premarket lows marked off which coincidentally was the midpoint of the overnight range, further to the downside was the overnight lows and the lows from Monday and Friday this was roughly a zone of around 6 points wide. To the upside the double top from the 11th and resistance becomes support becomes resistance at 3536.

In reality price had been in a range since Friday but I was not paying nearly enough attention to this, instead I could only see as far as my nose when it came to trade selection and was trading with very little consideration to the bigger picture, next post will be a notes post to address this.

1&2. Combining the trades as the second was a mistake. Price broke the downtrend line and made a retrace, trade triggered long but quickly failed to follow through I exited the trade but mistakenly reversed the position, I was not sure what had happened for a few seconds as I thought initially I was still long but as price went up I was showing negative ticks then the penny dropped, trade exited.

Besides the mistake, this was a poor trade entry as the entry long was right below what could have been resistance, if anything I should have been prepared for a possible short on rejection of high. Or waited for a breakout retest.

3. Price broke above the overnight high and retraced back to resistance which would now be support, long triggered but exited as price failed when testing the breakout high.

4. This was a long as a retest of the breakout and the third touch of the trendline, trade triggered long but again it was a no go and exited.

5. Again 5 was the nail in the coffin, this whole area is a little messy to be honest and I got my I's crossed and my T's dotted. Price tested the blue line where I shorted I then woke up and saw the pink line (drawn in my head) and realised that this was looking more like a retrace of the break in the down move to go long, I exited when price again failed to follow through, price then broke the green line had a quick retrace then continued on its way down, I was too close to my daily to take on the risk so passed.

I enter when I believe the retrace is over but and starting to go in one direction or another again like yesterday the retraces were not as over as I thought and they caught me out a little. I have gotten very lazy at keeping my eye on the larger time frames or even multiple days to get a good idea of where I am in the bigger picture so the next post will hopefully give me a clue as to why price did what it did where it did it.

Gozilla -23
Originally posted 1000 tick by accident but 300 is a little clearer.

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  #108 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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It takes 10 minutes if that to take a little time and zoom out to have a look at the bigger picture, these ten minutes could be worth a fortune all on their own if you use the time wisely and pay attention to what price is telling you. It would also help to have a good idea before the open of where price might do something and have an idea of what to look for when or if it does get there.

SUPPORT. RESISTANCE. RANGES. TRENDS.

Time frames to look for: 1 minute, 60 minute, Daily, 300 tick and a higher tick value to take in a number of weeks 5k+.

Start off with the daily and work down in size.

Price had broken the daily trend channel but after reading other posts it was pointed out that price had moved into another channel which seems pretty clear given price retesting from above a couple of times. Cant help notice where price bounced today, A few posts back I had big plans for what I was going to do at this price but I got lost on the small picture I had no idea how close price was to the support. Trade selection cant see the forest for the trees. Volume has been really high, what could it mean?


60 minute chart, things are starting to get a little clearer and I was bit sick when I noticed how price moved from the midpoint of the hourly channel to the support on the daily then bounced, if I am not attentive enough I will always miss this, count the points Gozilla, midpoint to support back to midpoint who wants that I'll settle for -23. Preparation, Preparation, Preparation.


1 minute chart up next, Can only get today's action on it but if the preparation is done its all we really need. Price rallies to the midpoint, anyone familiar with candles might see that top candle as a signal rejecting that price, price drops off puts in a retrace or two giving the opportunity to get short then puts in lower highs lower lows.

There is a blip on the way down where price bounce off 3442 and gets as far as 3462 just breaking the previous swing high, from first retrace to this break point the profit is about 30 points either exit or wait for the 50% retrace, there is a re-entry there once this flag breaks, detailed in previous post.

Price drops to near channel low and bounces, again trader preference on exit. Price moves to and breaks channel but the pace is dropping and price is more sideways, it eventually tags the daily support and bounces, it might be hard to pick up on the first retrace with price still being under the channel but we are right at an extreme and hopefully we have banked quite a few points by now and can at least be a bit more relaxed as price flounders in this area.

Price eventually moves back above channel bottom, its been to one extreme now the path of least resistance is up to the other extreme or at least the mid point. Same management rules on the way up exit if swing lows are broken or be more patient and let it pull back 50% of its move, again trader preference, not sure how I would do it as I was not in the game.


300 tick, not going to go into to much detail with this, I did not have the mid point marked off on this chart so when it broke to highs I was waiting for it to retest the highs from the 11th it failed on the retest and I briefly wondered what it ran into but I put it down to a possible over run of mentioned double top. The picture should show that price was ranging.


So what have I learned from all this, pay attention to higher time frames, exercise patience by waiting at the extremes or more significant turning points and be prepared for action when it comes.

Hopefully the missed opportunity will drive this home so I don't miss the next opportunity when it arises.

Prepare. Plan. Execute.

Gozilla + Still learning.

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  #109 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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After two trades I should have taken a time out to assess the situation and exercise more caution going forward, instead the blinkers went on and a tried as I often do to scrape a trade out of everything I could.

On the run up to open where was price, overall price was in the upper half of the 60 minute channel but it was only around 12 points above the mid point of this channel so it was a possibility that price could get there and test it. There was an overnight high at around 3513 a pre-open low at 3502 and another possible area of support on offer from yesterday's closing 30 minutes at 3484, price broke this right after close and it had not been retested.

Price opens tries to go higher but is kept from the overnight highs, it breaks pre-open lows and then comes back into range this does not last long and prices breaks down again, there is a brief retrace here but I have decided to wait for price to get to the mid point before I make any decisions, 3 minutes later and it's time for a decision.

I know I mention staying away from the midpoint but with price reacting as it has recently I felt that there was an opportunity that had to be taken as there is always the chance that given the possible range in play price could move to the upper extreme of the hourly chart.

Think I confused myself with the chart timings and a lack of consistent markings, most trades taken off 300 tick unless otherwise stated.

1. (1 minute chart) Midpoint broken, price fails to push much further past getting close to noted support and it pulls back up, once it starts dropping again I set my order at the high of the dropping candle but if price broke lower I would cancel the order. Price came back up and triggered the trade, it ran for 2 minutes before hitting the pre-open low I gave it a little time but as price faltered I exited.

2. Noticed a triangle formation develop so sat back an waited for it to break, price broke to the upside, as per usual waited for a pullback for an entry which happened at the pre-open low, trade triggered as price broke higher, trade exited as it waffled again.

3. The Ugly, Price had failed to continue upwards and dropped through the triangle apex and the midpoint, There was a short lived pullback to the earlier support now resistance where price stalled I took this as a signal to go short, entry was on price breaking lower but trade triggered and price stopped dead in its tracks and reversed, trade exited.

I got a little tilted on this trade, I tried to flatten out but for some reason my market order popped up on chart and did not get filled, I thought I had set up a limit order of some sort and was trying to figure out what I had done. All this happened in 3 or 4 seconds but I ended up with around 5 ticks of slippage.

4. (1 minute) Price retested the midpoint and I shorted the failure to pass, exited when price failed to follow through. This one was stupid, price was now above the support on the 300 and this down move was more like a retrace after breaking the downwards trend line.

5. Shorted again same as above but on a later retrace, price pushed a little lower before climbing again.

6. Starting to rattle off a lot of trades again as I started to find myself getting frustrated, shorted off a lower high at the triangle apex price. Trade exited as it failed.

7. The Bad, the very bad. Price broke out from overnight highs but it did not do it with any real flare so I held off on going long on the retest, it sauntered back above this price again and seemed to just hang around with no sense of urgency, I was really suspicious at this point but there was a brief spike higher then a retest of those highs, I decided to enter if price broke higher, ooops. The bad and the ugly of it is that I went into complete denial and struggled to exit taking a bigger loss than I should have.

8. Up trending line is broken and we get a retrace but again I am suspicious, by waiting for the breakout lows to get broken the entry is late and price fails to follow through.

What happened is what I thought would happen and in reasoning with myself at the time I concluded that the trade had to be taken as if it did not happen I would be kicking myself for a missed trade. I had to rage quit after this trade.

I have become very suspicious of a lot of the trades to the extent I am starting to doubt the plan, I am also struggling to accept when I am wrong and so far this week I have had more trades go badly against me because of this inability to face facts, I seem to forget that I can renter later if the conditions allow me to do so.

What a difference live can make to psychology.

I want to maintain complete responsibility for all my trading decisions, that's why my exits are all manual but I have struggled to be efficient when it comes to culling the trades thay are not working. As my trade entries are based on momentum I have to consider entering all trades with a tight auto stop to cut out the middle man i.e me in the initial moments of a trade.

Gozilla -4


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  #110 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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That's another day over and another loser to end the week, Its not all bad hopefully I have learned a few things by now that I can chew on over the weekend. And yes my psychology has been very different at times during the week which has without a doubt had an affect on my decision making process.

As a result of some of the losers getting bigger than they should I decided to set things up so a stop order would be placed close to entry as soon as the entry is triggered.

1. Price failed to break above the the swing high 10 minutes earlier. 3 bars tried and 3 bars failed I entered short as price broke lower, trade seemed good for a few seconds but price started getting fidgety so trade was exited,

2. Price broke the opening high retested and bounced again, at this point the upper trend lines were not a factor, as price retested it again a long was triggered but price failed to follow through and the stop was hit.

3. This is me getting to focused on the small picture again, took a long off what I thought could have been a DB which was no where near a bottom, more like a mid bottom, result not unexpected, stopped out.

4. Earlier range came into play, the entry was wrong though as it scraped into the highs I went to place a stop order but mistakenly entered a buy limit which filled straight away, I should have exited immediately but the reason for trade stood as I wanted to go long off here anyway (Poor reasoning in hindsight). Trade bounced but not very far so was exited.

5. With a failure of price to push off the range and hitting SBR from trade 3 a short was opened, Price followed through briefly but hit and reacted to the trend line as it did this I exited the trade.

With price failing to make it too deep into the range and coming back above the trend line I considered a long but I stayed on the sidelines not wanting to put in so many trades in a short period of time.

6. Shorted off resistance rejection on both time frames but it failed to live up to expectation so trade was exited.

7. Too fixated with the resistance at 3530 to really look at what I was dealing with, shorted after the second attempt to push higher made a lower high, price rallies and the trade is stopped out. I had time to exit prior to the stop being hit but I was lazy and let it happen, this is not good enough I put the stops in place to act if I fail to it does not mean that I have sit by and let them get hit when I know it's not working out.

On the 300 price has broken the linked lower highs and put in a retrace, it's likely to go up. On the 1 minute price retested resistance as support, if anything the entry should have been long but there is still resistance at 3530 which might turn price around, I think it would have been best to sit on the hands for this one.

Gozilla -2


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  #111 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Here is the trade breakdown for the week and it looks terrible to see it like this, not so much because of all the red its more to do with the fact that most of these trades stick out in my mind as being plain old bad/stupid.

Poor trade selection = making something out of nothing or more precisely nothing out of nothing.
Poor management = Allowing losers to become bigger than the should have. Giving too much back or letting positive trades become losers.

Over trading can also be thrown in for good measure but that's a lot to do with trade selection and poor preparation, I'm going to have a look over the weekend at what I have been doing during the week and try to assess why I have tried to pick the trades where I have and what I have done differently this week compared to the proceeding weeks leading to this.

These bumps were expected how I deal with them is where the challenge lies.

Gozilla.

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  #112 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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As I feel I may have strayed from the path a little I want to take the time to go over what I look for when it comes to entry criteria, not just the exact setup but things that can increase the probability of success or failure. I will use old charts that are already in the thread and try to focus on the individual opportunity rather than the chart as a whole unless there is some context not immediately apparent.

Gozilla.

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  #113 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Spent a chunk of the weekend looking over the trades I had done during the week and found the majority of them to be pretty weak at meeting the entry criteria posted in my last update. Whilst shorting at support or going long at resistance are the most obvious, I wanted to look at the trades where I am aiming to catch the change of direction as they happen as this is where the bulk of my trades failed.

Also noticed that I might be a little over zealous with my stop exit strategy but this is something that I will have to start tracking as it could mean having to accept a little more risk per trade which might be harder to do than I think as I have tightened up a little by effecting an auto stop on entry since the tail end of last week.


Gozilla.

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  #114 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Feels like the week is turning into a lost cause. No trade for Monday, three for Tuesday and two today. I have been trying hard to only take trades based on what I learned from the last post, whilst this has dropped the trade count significantly I have struggled to exercise patience when it comes to location and taken trades in areas where price has returned to a range of sorts.

Going to keep it to the charts as there is not much to talk about.

Tuesday:


Wednesday:


Gozilla -14

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  #115 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Been reading and looking at a few ideas around mean reversion, I just want to record my thoughts and observations of what I have seen over the last few days. My understanding is basic and might be way off but I can see a pattern emerging.

Big drop from overnight highs on the 10th to a low on the 15th, the midpoint of this is 3502.25ish, from this low price makes a very quick move stopping just short of the midpoint. Overnight it churns around it, Once the market opens price goes lower but hits the midpoint of the 60 minute down channel. Price goes higher, drops back to this line again then makes daily highs where it drops again back the the mean.


Between the highs and the lows on the 16th price maintained the midpoint of the larger drop. With this in mind what can be done to take advantage of it. With a midpoint identified I can see that there is a lot of chop in and around this area, when price gets to an extreme its time there is often short lived with clear moves back to the mean and at times onward to the opposing extreme.


Going into the open on the 17th price is still floating around inside the range of the previous day, there is a smaller range from the overnight that I was watching just below the mean but it was never threatened. This might be going into AMT but this opening high/low creates a mid point that is tested later.

Idea of projecting possible targets for trade.




Then there is the first 3 days of this week and what they offered in terms of observations.




Unfortunately my intelligence is not what it ever has been, so keeping track of all this in real time might blow my mind, whilst I will try my best to give these musings a consideration as the day unfolds it may serve to confuse and distract from what I am trying to do.

Gozilla.

If someone has worked this stuff out feel free to point me in the right direction.

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  #116 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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For the sake of continuity I thought it was about time a posted last weeks results.

The results are pretty poor and I realise I have started to become distracted by ideas and other thoughts when I am trading. Despite defining what I was looking for in a setup more clearly and tightening up on controlling my stop losses the results speak for themselves, I've gone wrong somewhere.

It is very likely I will be heading back to the sim world where I can retrace my steps to find where I got lost.

Gozilla

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 tturner86 
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For the sake of continuity I thought it was about time a posted last weeks results.

The results are pretty poor and I realise I have started to become distracted by ideas and other thoughts when I am trading. Despite defining what I was looking for in a setup more clearly and tightening up on controlling my stop losses the results speak for themselves, I've gone wrong somewhere.

It is very likely I will be heading back to the sim world where I can retrace my steps to find where I got lost.

Gozilla

When you are driving and you pull off the road, you don't look back to see where you exited the road do you? You look forward to where the road is and get back on it.

I wouldn't focus too much on where you got lost. Focus on where you want to go and start to move in that direction. (Like Gretzsky's quote about how he played hockey by being where the puck was going, not where it was.)

Work to remove the distractions and focus on your setup. (I understand how hard it is, I have been going through the same issue once I went live.) I believe the issue will be between your ears, and if you go to SIM you will not be in the same environment and therefore won't be able to resolve it.

**Just my two cents.

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 Gozilla 
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When you are driving and you pull off the road, you don't look back to see where you exited the road do you? You look forward to where the road is and get back on it.

I wouldn't focus too much on where you got lost. Focus on where you want to go and start to move in that direction. (Like Gretzsky's quote about how he played hockey by being where the puck was going, not where it was.)

Work to remove the distractions and focus on your setup. (I understand how hard it is, I have been going through the same issue once I went live.) I believe the issue will be between your ears, and if you go to SIM you will not be in the same environment and therefore won't be able to resolve it.

**Just my two cents.

The differences between sim and live have not been as obvious this time around as has often been experienced in the past, being live exposes weaknesses that you wouldn't even know exist as a sim trader and thats an education all on its own. I have tightened up as I wanted to improve trade selection and quality of trades by having a better defined criteria for entries but, the results have gone off a cliff for lack of a better expression.

Psychologically it has at times been frustrating but I have done better than usual to sticking with the plan, right now though it feels a lot like the method has been tweaked to a point where the results have gotten worse rather than better. I will need to re-examine my journal to see what I was thinking and doing in the lead up to live and during this latest stint of being live.

Gozilla.

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 Daytona 
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The differences between sim and live have not been as obvious this time around as has often been experienced in the past, being live exposes weaknesses that you wouldn't even know exist as a sim trader and thats an education all on its own. I have tightened up as I wanted to improve trade selection and quality of trades by having a better defined criteria for entries but, the results have gone off a cliff for lack of a better expression.

Psychologically it has at times been frustrating but I have done better than usual to sticking with the plan, right now though it feels a lot like the method has been tweaked to a point where the results have gotten worse rather than better. I will need to re-examine my journal to see what I was thinking and doing in the lead up to live and during this latest stint of being live.

Gozilla.

I think the differences between sim and Live are personal for each trader. I keep on reading everywhere that Live is a completely different world to sim, but for me it feels not too far apart. When I was in sim I still had the urge to take profit early, traded more aggressively after some losers, etc. However for me there was (and still is) a huge difference between market replay and sim. When I can ffwd through all the chop straight to my entry point, I could execute as per my plan, so obviously my issue is more one of patience. One thing that helps me trading live is to not have the pnl within my direct vision when in a trade, so I can just focus on the chart.

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 Gozilla 
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I think the differences between sim and Live are personal for each trader. I keep on reading everywhere that Live is a completely different world to sim, but for me it feels not too far apart. When I was in sim I still had the urge to take profit early, traded more aggressively after some losers, etc. However for me there was (and still is) a huge difference between market replay and sim. When I can ffwd through all the chop straight to my entry point, I could execute as per my plan, so obviously my issue is more one of patience. One thing that helps me trading live is to not have the pnl within my direct vision when in a trade, so I can just focus on the chart.

In the past I have struggled with the psychological differences between Live and Sim, but increasingly I have come to rely on a plan and rules to protect myself from the inevitable losing streaks that I will encounter along the way. And to that end in my latest foray into Live trading I felt largely indifferent to the P&L as the trades unfolded, sure I would get a little frustrated now and again but that was more down to making poor decisions I knew I should have avoided rather than the actual loss of money.

Replay is a brilliant tool to use to test out strategies but the boring parts that can be skipped are the areas when live that can play tricks on the mind and fool you into chasing trades that don't exist and may even lay waste a well thought out plan, patience can be built by enduring the monotony of what can often happen during the trading day.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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Well in this latest week ending 2nd May 2014 it was almost a full house. I managed to hit what I budgeted for prior to going live so the week ended prematurely on Thursday. Examination of the wreckage in the next post.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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What went wrong, Starting with a stat comparison between the four weeks of live trading versus the two weeks of sim leading to going live.

First image covers start of live trading 7th April to end of week 2nd of May, second image is 24th March to 4th of April.



First things first, I may have been a little bull headed when it came to cessation of trading when it comes the the multiple losing trades in a row aspect, taking a day off between these bouts may have been advantageous or at least could have taken it as a warning flag that something was not working out.

The most obvious thing that I have been fixated with is my number of trades sim versus live.

SIM - 2 weeks = 62 Trades
LIVE - 4 weeks = 72 Trades

My trade activity dropped off significantly when I was live, was I scared or hesitant when it came to making decisions?

Initially I don't think I was but the rot in hindsight may have come in after my second week, at this point I was 50 trades into being live and it was the first week where I had a loss. Looking over my journal I start to focus on making a clearer definition of the setups I am looking for and where I will take them. This is where my trade count drops off and the results go with them.

Have I inadvertently filtered out the more profitable trades?

I think that it is perfectly legitimate to wait in predefined areas to take trades on but even at the time as I watched there were trades I would pass on as they might represent a short near support or a long at resistance or a setup midrange.

Trading sim and even in my first week live whilst being aware of support and resistance and the possible effect these might have on price I was more willing and ready to take a trade based solely on the setup. Support, Resistance and trendlines are all history, whilst history will often repeat itself times also change. What once was, won't always be.

This might not make much sense, I'm not sure if I get my style, When I first started the journal I would not have considered myself a scalper even though my trades were often short lived I still did not consider this scalping, it was more fear based trading. I think I have to admit that my style lends itself to scalping and that I am likely someone who will take on a lot of trades as the day unfolds as long as I do not hit my daily stop of course.

I may have focused on the wrong aspect altogether and in reality I might just plain suck, perhaps I'm in denial about the whole thing who knows, but I do feel after week two I started to react to results and this tightening up felt justified at the time in trying to cull the trades that seemed less than ideal.

So now I am left in a weird spot. I believe that the source of my problems may be the tightening up and perhaps being overly selective in trade location.

Do I go to sim loosen up and retest the setups?

The tightening up was caused by live psychology that may not be replicated in a sim environment.

Do I budget for a further week, continue live and try to loosen up?

Losses could cause me to tighten up inadvertently or impair my abilities to make clear fast decisions.

I am confident in the setups I look for despite the recent results, its the mush between my ears I have the problem with.

I may have the wrong end of the stick but these are my thoughts at this time.

Gozilla.

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 tturner86 
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What makes you feel better? Small consistent wins or fewer wins that are much larger?

Scalpers have to be right 75%-90% of the time to be profitable, other traders who look for a larger reward can be right as low as 40% and be profitable (Look at @PandaWarrior).

I have seen it posted multiple times, and I am starting to agree that the outliers are what will make you profitable. Those 1-2 (or more) trades a month that you can nail and milk for the most profit.

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 Gozilla 
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Since last post there has not been any solid decisions as to what I am going to do next, but with results in sim I'm leaning towards getting back in the ring. I included a sim trade I took after getting stopped out for the day last week, typical that a trade would work out on paper.

These trades were taken with the focus being on the setups with location being less of a factor in the decision making process. If it is not obvious I was very lazy in the management aspect with a few of the trades, this is more to reaffirm to me that what I was doing before I tightened up works for me and that I shouldn't forget it does.

Of course I have no idea how I would have dealt with these situations live, the live environment has a habit of exposing your weaknesses and teaching you more about yourself as a trader than sim can, if you are willing to listen.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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What makes you feel better? Small consistent wins or fewer wins that are much larger?

Scalpers have to be right 75%-90% of the time to be profitable, other traders who look for a larger reward can be right as low as 40% and be profitable (Look at @PandaWarrior).

I have seen it posted multiple times, and I am starting to agree that the outliers are what will make you profitable. Those 1-2 (or more) trades a month that you can nail and milk for the most profit.

I think that whilst I don't want to rely on outliers to make my week or month they may in fact be the only thing that makes the difference between an okay month and a great month, but I would still like to be profitable over time on the singles to keep going in the right direction. And a high win rate for me at least, might be too intensive to maintain in the long run.

I think my style might be about firing a lot of shots before I hit my target, couldn't think of a good analogy for it.

Gozilla.

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 tturner86 
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I think that whilst I don't want to rely on outliers to make my week or month they may in fact be the only thing that makes the difference between an okay month and a great month, but I would still like to be profitable over time on the singles to keep going in the right direction. And a high win rate for me at least, might be too intensive to maintain in the long run.

I think my style might be about firing a lot of shots before I hit my target, couldn't think of a good analogy for it.

Gozilla.

I completely agree, I am kinda the same. My daily target is $100+, my daily risk is $100. Now it is a flat 1:1 which will not be profitable on its own. The + in my profit target is what will make the difference. Some days it will be $100, others $150, but as long as I cross the finish line with my target I am satisfied. After I have my target if I have a trade that I can let run for more then that is perfect, if not I take my target or my loss and move on to the next day.

But even at $100 a day, if I can hit 17 trading days a month then that will be $1700 a month. Odds are I will not hit every single day and I will have some losses, but if I can finish the month with $500-$1000/month then that is perfect. Some months may be better, others may be worse. And I am not worried about that gain or loss, the key is to be consistent and once I find that, increase position size, and increase my runners.

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 tturner86 
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I think that whilst I don't want to rely on outliers to make my week or month they may in fact be the only thing that makes the difference between an okay month and a great month, but I would still like to be profitable over time on the singles to keep going in the right direction. And a high win rate for me at least, might be too intensive to maintain in the long run.

I think my style might be about firing a lot of shots before I hit my target, couldn't think of a good analogy for it.

Gozilla.

Missed your last sentence, I am different I see myself more as a sniper. Limited number of shots, that I have to put on to a very specific target. Sometimes that will require me to be patient, quiet, and alert. I will have to stalk my trade, survive the wait, and be ready to pull the trigger when it appears.

**edit: I know this thread is about you, not trying to inject myself here. But you seem to be willing to look, listen, and learn so I figured you wouldn't mind other's perspectives.

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 Gozilla 
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Missed your last sentence, I am different I see myself more as a sniper. Limited number of shots, that I have to put on to a very specific target. Sometimes that will require me to be patient, quiet, and alert. I will have to stalk my trade, survive the wait, and be ready to pull the trigger when it appears.

**edit: I know this thread is about you, not trying to inject myself here. But you seem to be willing to look, listen, and learn so I figured you wouldn't mind other's perspectives.

Me and my analogies, by all means comment away it's good to get another's perspective on the situation.

It might be better to try and describe my thoughts, which at the best of times are as clear as mud.

My only limitation as far as number of trades a day go is my daily stop loss, I hit it I'm out. Other than that I try to take every setup that is dictated by my method, given that I trade on a fast chart these setups can pop up like a whack a mole.

I am really hard on most trades and quickly exit if it shows hesitation in the early stages. I don't know where the next runner is going to come from but feel I have to take them as they come as the next one might be the one that makes all the difference. But what I do know is that when you get one that goes it tends to bolt straight out the gate and move by enough of a margin that you can relax the management and give it a little space to run.

Clear as mud.

Gozilla.

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 tturner86 
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Saw this an thought you might enjoy the read:

"Good is good enough
Find out who you are and be happy that you can do all that you can do. A baseball player does not have to be a home run hitter to get in the Hall of Fame. If he consistently hits lots of singles, he will get there. You do not have to be the best to be rich, but you have to be happy, consistent, and disciplined to achieve your goal."

Trading Psychology | Brooks Trading Course

Article on Swing vs Scalp: https://brookstradingcourse.com/how-to-trade-manual/trade-management/

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 Gozilla 
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After three losing weeks in a row it seemed a little obvious that things were not working out as well as I thought they would, I managed to blow through my allotted budget for the task at hand and was forced to cease trading and examine the wreckage.

I was aware at the time that I was tightening up on trade selection and it seemed perfectly justified to do so as the losses mounted but it was hard to ignore the fact that however justified I was the results got worse, this in turn made me tighten up some more which had a negative affect on the results again.

I may be focused on the wrong aspect or idea but the conclusion I have reached is to take a few steps back and strip off a lot of the rules that got added as the failures worsened, Continue to be aware of things that may affect price but to also judge the setup on its own merit, this aspect has a possibility to introduce inconsistencies in where and when I take trades and will have to be monitored closely.

This is not going to be a quick fix, and whilst my confidence got a little dented the results are not the end of the world by any means and I believe I can get things back on track if I can refocus on the task at hand.

After sim trading the the first two days of the week I decided that the only way I could really test myself was to get back into the live ring. The results are nothing spectacular and some of the trades were exited based on emotion (just happy to be positive) but it felt a little more familiar to take on the trades where and when I did as apposed to turning down a lot of trades as they failed on one or two criteria.

Wednesday, A few daft trades but not too bad.
Thursday, Spent the whole day waiting to short the rally then trying to go long on the drop.
Friday, One trade then had to go out for most of the day.

I have gotten really slack with posting charts, will look to get it back together starting next week.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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So much for the regular updates, not much to report for the last four trading days, I have found it challenging to identify trades during the day as most of the setups have failed prior to being triggered and those that do don't seem to go anywhere, sounds a little too familiar for my liking.

This post will have a chart of Thursday's action, as for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday there was only five trades all small failures and I don't think there is much to cover in them.

1. Shorting a retracement in the down move but as it breaks lower price starts to hesitate then comes back to entry where I flatten out.

2. Again price breaks a little lower and again it fails to follow through.

At this point I notice the channel and realise that 2 was a bad trade but I have to options, either short at the upper part of the channel on a rejection or go long if price breaks out and retraces.

3. Price breaks out and retraces, my entry is painfully late though and the trade is quickly exited.

4&5. Price comes off a lower high and again fails to go anywhere, I exercise extreme prejudice and exit both trades at the first sign of hesitation.

So four days of nothing much, the first few days of the week were a hard slog to watch as they unfolded then Thursday we get a bit of action and I miss it, oh well, there's always the next day.

Gozilla.
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 tturner86 
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How is it going @Gozilla?

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 Gozilla 
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How is it going

Not much to report I'm afraid maybe five trades in the last three weeks, despite having big ideas on how I was going to proceed, I have found conditions to be challenging and as a result of seeing multiple days of nothing much that I can see happening I tend to throw in the towel early as I often feel when the session comes to a close it seems like I have wasted a day.

I have been off work for 14 weeks due to an injury and I am due back to work tomorrow, but I have found sitting around all day recuperating has sapped my motivation and blown any routine I had to pieces so it feels like I am going to work to get a break. Never thought I would ever say something like that.

Hopefully I will come back with a little motivation and be more consistent and regular with having something to post about but at the same times it feels like the summer doldrums are upon us and I struggled with this last year so I wont want to push it to much.

Take it easy.
Gozilla

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 tturner86 
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How goes it my Scottish friend?

I'd love to come to Aberdeen and have a Belhaven with you one day.

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 Gozilla 
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How goes it my Scottish friend?

I'd love to come to Aberdeen and have a Belhaven with you one day.

Things are pretty average at the minute, I've not traded once since my last update, and to be honest I don't feel like I have missed much, but saying that in the last week or so the markets have started to look a little more interesting.

Not sure how I feel about the last two months, adapt and learn how to trade the doldrums or knowing the grief it caused me last year sit out and wait/hope for a change for the better, in hindsight I think I should have put some effort in, especially when I have dropped in on journals such as yours and seen how people have adapted and overcome to what has been for me a challenging time.

Keep up the good work and congrats on your recent additions and successes.

Gozilla

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 Gozilla 
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So as I hinted in my last post things seem to have gotten a little more interesting of late, after 2 month break things feel a little rusty so these observations might resemble more of a ramble than clear thinking.

So in order to get an idea of what I am looking at I'll start off on the daily and work down.


The time frame is not so important it is an 80 minute chart as I could not work the 60 minute to show the move from April very well.

I will show yesterdays 500 tick prior to today's action as yesterday has a bearing on what is happening now.

My day was broken up so no sim trades just casual observations.


As you can never be sure what will happen next I think I would have been very hard pressed to have held from top to bottom and most likely I would have bailed out as it chopped around the mid point of the channel. Practice and patience are in short supply at the minute.

Gozilla.

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 tturner86 
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Gozilla View Post
So as I hinted in my last post things seem to have gotten a little more interesting of late, after 2 month break things feel a little rusty so these observations might resemble more of a ramble than clear thinking.

So in order to get an idea of what I am looking at I'll start off on the daily and work down.


The time frame is not so important it is an 80 minute chart as I could not work the 60 minute to show the move from April very well.

I will show yesterdays 500 tick prior to today's action as yesterday has a bearing on what is happening now.

My day was broken up so no sim trades just casual observations.


As you can never be sure what will happen next I think I would have been very hard pressed to have held from top to bottom and most likely I would have bailed out as it chopped around the mid point of the channel. Practice and patience are in short supply at the minute.

Gozilla.

Woohoo, someone else I can talk to about the NQ. Market cycle is changing... Get ready.

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 Gozilla 
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Just posting a few charts to illustrate what I have been thinking when I look over what has been happening over the last 24 hours.

I'll start by covering the last 90 minutes from 7th of August which is where I left off on my last chart with an explanation with what I think and what my actions should have been.

Price fails to make much progress beyond 50% of range, seeing as this could be a value that may resist the movement I would keep an eye for a break of the trendline and perhaps a lower high to signal weakness, First possible area of interest would be the lower extreme of the range, if a drop did occur it would be tracked by lines and exited once a break then higher low happens.


Today was a little messy, Price had tested 3856 as resistance in the hours after close but overnight and into the open it skipped through it a couple of times. Once I see this I start to consider this as a possible chop area that might cause trouble.

About an hour after open price pushes past the halfway point between the overnight high and low but fails again to make much progress, A long could be taken after the second low fails to push lower, I might have struggled with this as 3856 is not far off and might be a cause for concern.

Price moves up from here and then chops in the lower part of the range eventually retesting 3856 and then taking off. My bias might have stopped me from taking a long as price hovered around this area of support.
At some point over the weekend I am going to cover some of the DAX as it has been very interesting to watch over the last couple of weeks or so.

Gozilla

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  #139 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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I have really struggled to put in the screen time this week, a mixture of appointments, fatigue and a lack of motivation caused me to write off the first 3 days of the week and Thursday was mind numbing to say the least and that left me with Friday. The last trading day of my rota at home for the next 3 weeks I felt I would be better off taking notes and observing what I saw and thought at certain points as the day unfolded instead of muddying the water with trying to manage positions at the same time, the charts I will post will be mostly hindsight as I deleted a lot as I went.

To start with, I have been trying to get into a better routine when it comes to trading, or at least getting ready to trade, I am lazy and do not put in the effort required to be as successful as I believe I can be and whilst this trip off is now over I have started to try and organise myself better so I am prepared for the day ahead this includes looking over the charts a little more studiously and marking off anything interesting that may have an effect on future prices, this is just so I am not taken by surprise and can plan ahead, if I see X happen at Y I'll have in idea why and can be prepared to take action.

Someone posted a link the other day in chat that rings true with me and how I have been thinking lately, my mindset is at odds with what I am trying to achieve. TraderFeed: Success Starts With Making Your Bed

And that concludes my philosophical moment, back to the grind.

The daily chart is not no much different to the last daily I posted, but as a brief recap we did get a lower low but price stalled out and then rallied back towards the upper channel extremes and the high from the 24th.

The hourly was looking a little more interesting going into the open as we were only around 10 points off the highs and thoughts at the time were along the line of, would we get a rejection and a sell off or a breakout and rally.


We got the open and price just did not do much for the first hour, and it was hard to watch and to be honest I felt it was going to do as it did on Thursday and chop around, however I did not switch off go find something else to do I decided to give it some time. I plotted out my lines and waited, what I saw reminded me of this post I re-read a couple of days ago, Last chart noting the highs failing to push off the trendline, result was a change of direction that could be played as per entry rules. . The same pattern more obvious on the 300 tick with a clearer entry on the 1 minute.



Now that the drop is under way things become increasingly hypothetical, assuming a short was taken how would it be managed, going by the plan I would track price, perhaps to a predetermined area, but more accurately I hope, tracking the lows and highs as price drops, as long as it is in trend keep a hold of the position.


So the drop has at least for now stopped and our exit is triggered, there were two things on my mind at this point, the short has been exited so perhaps I should be long, and how far is this rally going to go. Seeing as I was using 50% retracements a lot I was watching 3976.25 as a possible target for a long it also ties in with the consolidation area during the drop. The long in question would have been exited early as there is a hiccup in the rally.


After the double top at the 50% area price once again drops and a possible target would be a double bottom for an exit, price nearly gets there before putting in a little rally that would knock me off the short, price then makes another rapid drop and into a trendline I had prepared earlier on the 60 minute chart, price bounces then drops making a higher low which gives a long signal. It gets a little messy after this with a retest of the double bottom, a little chop and a few rallies to take us back to near open prices by close but I was long gone by this point as I was happy enough with how I thought through the day leading to lunch hours.


Of course these are just my thoughts and they all sound good on paper, the real test is taking decisive action when and where they are called for.

Gozilla.

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  #140 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Nearly 4 weeks without charting has left me a little rusty when it comes to making heads or tails of what is going on, Guess it's time to put a little work in and see what I can see.

Charts are going to be updated versions from this post




The hourly leaves me thinking it would be best to play off the extremes or wait for a breakout or breakdown, given that the daily is at the upper extreme and the hourly is horizontal at the lower extreme I am getting a bias to the short side, I need to nip this bias in the bud and just take it as it comes.

Alternatively price could break higher which might give rise to an increased pace of price.

Who knows what will happen next.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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After months of practising, observing and mostly contemplation I finally felt it was time to look at how I would react once money was in the equation, I decided to limit myself to one trade and see how it went.

To start off with, given the action on Monday it was hard not to approach the day with a bias of some sort. Price had moved off the upper extreme of the daily which it had been hugging for the last 3 weeks, and on the shorter TF price had also broken below the range, with this in mind the path of least resistance seemed down.



On the shorter time frame the one I would trade from, Monday seemed to offer resistance in the high 20's, this is where I felt I was most likely going to look for a short should the opportunity arise. The low of Monday was also marked off to see how price would react around it, mostly as I felt price had rejected quite hard and maybe there was still some support in the area.

As we ticked down to the bell, price broke the lows, it pulled back as a retest where I contemplated a short but with it being so close to the open I was not all that comfortable with the idea as I felt 4000 may get a reaction I might not like. Price rallied and there were 2 possible long entries, again my bias to shorting in a specific area, the break of the lows and my overall bias short stopped me in my tracks. I Felt like I would waste my trade here.

Eventually price got into the fabled area where I would short, time to see what I would do, we get the pullback and the lower high, price drops off and I get swept into the trade. We're good for a few ticks, price ticks by one lower and then we get a jump. The fact it went a little lower is good but it is not behaving as anticipated, usually at this point alarm bells go off. I had decided I was going in to leave it to the previous swing high @4026 which it equaled but never broke, price started to move in the right direction and went into profit but I was still mindful of the fact it had already failed once in this area to push lower, Price blipped again and came back to BE, I had to make a decision, whilst it did push lower it kept coming back for more, previous attempts got rejected soundly but this was holding on, it was not behaving as I expected, I decided to exit early rather that wait for the last swing high to get taken out.


Not exactly the result in terms of P&L I was looking for but this was more an analysis of my mindset during a trade and I think in terms of trade management reasoning and my rationale for the exit, I am quite happy. However....passing on the other trades was a negative and being fixated with a specific action at a specific place blinded me to other opportunities, I have no idea whatsoever what price is going to do, price may have failed to reach the area or blown right through it what would I have done then, miss a great trade or take no trades at all, take what the market gives you and nothing more.

NQ -10

Gozilla.

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  #142 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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So after yesterdays performance I decided that I would try not to have such a specific idea in mind when it comes to actions at locations.

TRADE: Price had reached yesterdays highs making a new high by a point, it then dropped off breaching a short term uptrend and breaking the last swing low, price then rallied, I started trailing an entry on anticipation of a further move lower. Trade triggered and after a couple of seconds we were in profit.

At this point I linked the lows at 08:35 and 08:42 and had a rough idea that price might be making a down moving range, and it seems I was caught by surprise when price did react, I wanted to exit at the first sign of a bounce but I was also wanting to give it some room. I dithered for a moment then exited the trade, taking a small profit.


Positive: Took the first identified trade, kept a reasonable level head in the lead up and duration of the trade.

Negative: Entry was 5-6 ticks too late, price hitting the lower range should have been an immediate exit given the upper extreme was beyond my entry, don't know if it will stop once it gets there. Possibly overlooked the lows in the hour leading to open.

The dither was self forced in an attempt to not make a knee jerk reaction, I think an exit at any sign of rejection at an identified area would have been valid given how close the entry was.

NQ +4
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  #143 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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Good way to work your way back into the saddle gradually. Keep up the good work.

P.S. what do you think of the independence vote?

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  #144 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Good way to work your way back into the saddle gradually. Keep up the good work.

P.S. what do you think of the independence vote?

It's really tough to get good information on it, Each side is obviously heavily biased one way or another, the No's are telling us how everything will cost more, jobs will be lost the NHS, pensions, welfare will all suffer and that staying in the UK gives us a louder voice.

The yes side obviously begs to differ, everything would be better as a smaller nation we can tailor things to our own needs far better than a government that might only see us as a small part of a bigger picture. And of course we have oil, it solves everything and we will be like Norway where the standard of life is better (Norwegians might disagree might not) but I work in the industry (exploration) and it's not as rosy as they make out, and as a trader I am well aware of the fact like most on here that the price of oil is not controlled by Scotland's politicians and the economy is way to heavily weighted by one industry especially in this neck of the woods.

Independence is an exciting prospect and could be great if the right people are in place and prepared to make the tough decisions that will need to be made in those early years. As for me, it has not been a bad life being part of the UK but I do wonder what an independent future holds.

However, I think the outcome will be a no, it might be close but even at a no we stand to gain more power over certain aspects of governance.

Nothing ventured nothing gained.

24 hours time we will know.

Gozilla.

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  #145 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Thought I would make a quick update so I don't fall behind on recording what has been happening with my trading.

TRADE: Price broke above Previous days high and overnight high, it then retested as support before bouncing again showing weakness by putting in a lower high, I decided to short of this high but as we had not broken lower than the support on the retest I was very apprehensive. Trade entry was triggered, price made a move below support, stopped and rallied. Price was again rejecting a move lower trade was exited.

Negative: Too focused on the setup I think I could have passed on a short at support.



-10
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  #146 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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As the title suggests Friday's behaviour left me disappointed, it's no disaster, not a total loss of control just stupid reasoning would sum it up.

The lead up to the trade price had moved in a down trending channel cleanly observing the lower trend line allowing me to draw the upper line, 30 minutes after open, price tagged the upper trend line, the PA after this seemed choppy to me and unclear so I passed on a possible trade, price made a cleaner retrace around 10 minutes later but I was not focused at this point. Price dropped to lower trend line and rallied to upper trend line.

TRADE: Price tagged upper trend line, dropped breaking the trend line and rallied but failed to go higher forming a lower high and triggering my entry, this is where it gets messy and it didn't take long to be out. Price rallies off the bat, up until I took the trade I was bored, really bored. I felt price was churning around and not going to do much in the day and I was looking at another trade in the week that had failed to push lower on entry. My decision initially was to see if the last swing high got taken out @4106.25 I was okay with that, then I changed to exiting on a trend line break, even better. Then I decided to just exit as it had failed to push lower that was a good enough reason, given I am bored and price will churn (in my mind) an exit now is better than waiting for a stop out that will cost more. I had convinced myself I knew what was happening next.

Instantly as I clicked out I realised how bad my reasoning was, I was perfectly at ease with both my wider stops, price ticked up a couple more ticks, so I watched and saw how it failed to reach the trend line or swing high. It seems a little hindsight because I can see that the trade would have worked but I still felt at the time I could have afforded to at least leave it for the line.

What I should have done is explained on the chart.


I think I was in the wrong mindset leading into the trade, given price after open to the trade I took, I had perhaps made my mind up that it was going to be choppy, and the fact I was bored and not that enthusiastic about what felt like the potential of wasting a day.

Before the day was done I started to build my new computer, I would best describe myself as weak when it comes to hardware/software knowledge so until I figure out how to get the longer time frame charts to work I will feel a little lost, I have transferred 0% of my old one over as I liked the idea of a clean slate, now I'm trying to figure out what I need in terms of chart data or if I can download it from elsewhere.

-7
Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Shutting down early today as I am way too tired to focus as I should, but I think it is fair to say that there has been a couple of good opportunities on offer if you have the focus and can pull the trigger.

The first opportunity is not so clear on the 300 tick but more obvious on the 1 minute, and it comes around 40 minutes after open. Price has rallied for 11 minutes it reaches and breaks the trend line that tracks the rally, it then makes a 1 minute attempt to rally but fails putting in a lower high, this is a really quick entry, too quick for me, for some reason I feel safer on a slightly more protracted retracement, so I can think, but I think too much sometimes.

Price drops and if one can stick to their guns when it comes to management the first possible exit comes at around 4058 but this depends on how you define a swing high as price went more sideways but that's up to the individual, the next possible exit would have been at around 4050, price gets a little choppier after this.


Seeing as the 1 minute chart trade happened too quick to enter, and my focus was mainly on the 300 tick I decided to just stick with the 300 to see if I could get an entry. My lower channel trend line I think was incorrect when it came to making the decision on the second trade but the red line which might be more correct would not have led to a different decision.

Linked overnight low to 30 minute post open low, price dropped through this line and made a pullback to it, this was going to be the trade that I was going to take, After taking a minute I realised I was not so keen on the trade as the proximity of the lower trend line may act like support.

First trade was a reasonable location but my reflexes let me down, the second trade was a good setup from a purely method approach but once the context of location is added into the equation I am ok with the decision I reached, I cant predict the future.

Tomorrows another day.
Gozilla.

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  #148 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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A mistake when placing an order cost me today's trade, seems to be a recurring theme of mistakes and inattention getting me into trouble.

I was out for the open and returned to see price had been rallying, my plan was to wait and see if there was a break in pace and a possible change in direction. Around 40 minutes after open (300 tick) price broke down from channel, now it was a question of seeing if it would pullback and by how far or if the trend would resume, as price rallied I trailed my sell order in order to catch the drop if it happened.

I made my mistake at this point, with each proceeding bar up I moved my entry below the low of the previous candle usually keeping it back by around 4 ticks, maybe it was my eyesight, an unsteady hand or overeagerness I moved in too close and got triggered in.

Got caught out with price and as it rallied past the bar highs I decided to exit, I was aware of a possible double top but with such a poor entry it would be right on my daily stop in this area. As far as possible targets go price had found support in the 4033-4034 area overnight/pre-market so it could possibly be a range play with exits at the midpoint if price stalls in the area around 4047.


-11
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  #149 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Brief post on trading activity since last update.

Wednesday trade: Overnight and leading to the open price had been making a series of higher highs and lows, picked up on the highs not maintaining the lower trend line pace and anticipated a possible break and down move, the other alternative was for a push over the previous days afternoon session highs and a retest and move higher.

Price briefly broke higher but it retraced back below resistance voiding a long if one was to be taken, price quickly came back to the lower trend line and I was considering a long but price blew though without much deliberation. Now the short alternative was on the cards, price dropped off 10 points in 2 minutes but I was stuck waiting for a retrace which eventually came. Trailed my entry as price rallied and like the previous day got ticked in and price rallied.

In trying not to overreact I may have let this trade go further than I should have against me, and there is a small observation that I failed to see, don't know if it means something but might be worth a note.

Price bottoms out, 1 bar rally, 2 bar drop fails to push lower, next bar new high, push lower breaking the last low (chop), fails to move down further quickly rejecting this area. What does it add too, probably way to micro in terms of time frame but the behaviour could give a hint that it is struggling to head down, so if trade is triggered and entered a hasty exit might be in order if price shows any hesitation to follow through, or maybe I am trying to justify a knee jerk reaction.

Other thing of note, overnight high to low 4042, low to high 4040, Triangle apex from highs 14:37-01:53-03:07 and lows 15:57-02:53-03:50 @ 4043.50 which was tested 20 minutes before open giving a nice trade if you like that sort of thing. And given the PA Monday and Tuesday the low 40's was kind of in the middle of a messy range and the chance of getting chopped up might have been higher.

Overall to cut a long story short, poor trade location. And to top it off missed the test and failure of the break price of which there were 3 attempts at.

Thursday: No trade, Could not figure out how to get in on a continuation, if I miss the start I often forget about it rather than give chase.

Friday: No trades, Range day/chop


-17
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  #150 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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I will be out of the loop for 2 weeks coming Monday as my day job beckons, I always find it interesting to see how the lines hold up on my charts and can only really wonder what I would have done during the time that I miss.

As far as the daily goes, The green channel highlighted in the last daily update seems to be in play, I am curious to know how price will react as it get squeezed between a possible faster rising trend and the more established trend in red.

Who knows what will happen next.

Gozilla.

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 Big Mike 
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Nice job journaling @Gozilla.

I want to let you and all your readers know that in October futures.io (formerly BMT) has a Trading Journal contest w/prizes. The contest runs October 1 to October 31, and the three best journals (as decided by futures.io (formerly BMT) members) will receive a 150K combine from TopstepTrader.

The contest thread is here:



That thread will be open for posting starting Wednesday, October 1. As the author of your journal, you need to make a post in that thread linking to your journal, and then ask users to press the "Thanks" button on that post if they want to vote for your journal to win the contest.

Members can vote for as many different journals as they want. Votes are cast in the Contest thread only, and only on the first post made by the author of the journal that contains a link to their journal. This is done so I can easily count the "Thanks Received" by author/journal, and award the three prizes.

Mike

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  #152 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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So two weeks have passed and I'm finally able to see how price has progressed on my charts. Big things always seem to happen when I am away and last week seemed to have some big moves but as ever I was not in a position to spectate at the time let alone trade.

Where I left off last time, Green trend was in play or at least the lower ascending trend line looked as though it would offer support, the possible question was whether or not this could be the start of a sharper incline.

Filling in the gap, Price failed to make any real movement off green and eventually broke down hitting the mean of big red, it then retested the green in a pull back and then price again got bumped between the mean of red and lower part of green before blowing energetically down through the mean to the lower extreme of the channel.

Question now is, Will price make it all the way the the lower extreme? and if it does what will happen next? a move back to the mean? or could this be a trend breaker or at least a slow down?

Gozilla.

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  #153 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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One trade today then called it quits, planned the trade and traded the plan so no slip ups this time around but the trade taken was not necessarily the first opportunity to present itself and I found myself having to think a bit more than usual through the opening minutes today.

As we approached the open price had been ranging for an hour or so, the plan was to trade a retracement of a breakout or breakdown of price from this range. Two minutes after open and price tested the lower part of the range and failed to make a new low, two minutes after this price broke to the upside. It was about this time a became aware of where price was in relation to yesterdays high and low and as price chopped I became bias to the short side, however as I am trying to stick to the method I entered a buy order to trigger if price broke higher viewing this as an obstacle and not an immovable object.

Price broke back into the range, it was a brief and shallow re-entry but this made me a little more bearish so buy order got cancelled. At this point I switched to trailing a sell order looking for a possible lower high or double top, As price made its way back to highs it chopped beyond the earlier high which caused me to rethink my stance, sell order cancelled.

I was starting to think I was being a little unreasonable, I think it is justifiable, price was not behaving as expected but as price dropped off I noticed it had formed an ascending wedge (price showing weakness to the upside) the plan now was to wait for a break of the ascending trendline and get short on a retrace.

TRADE 1: Price breaks the trendline and drops, it makes a slight retrace giving an entry at 3828.5 this is potentially a messy area as it is in the middle of the premarket range so there is a risk of getting chopped up, short triggered, there was no definite target in mind just ideas and as price hit the lower part of the channel it got a bit of a reaction, I held off closing initially but as price broke pace I decided to exit and see how it played out.

I'm positive with the aspects of the trade I did end up taking from the entry, management to exit but my prep work was a little sloppy and as far as the other potential trades are concerned the first longs viability could have gone either way and I was fully aware of what I was looking at on the first potential short but doubted my thinking as it developed.

Gozilla +19

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  #154 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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One trade today then called it quits, planned the trade and traded the plan so no slip ups this time around but the trade taken was not necessarily the first opportunity to present itself and I found myself having to think a bit more than usual through the opening minutes today.

As we approached the open price had been ranging for an hour or so, the plan was to trade a retracement of a breakout or breakdown of price from this range. Two minutes after open and price tested the lower part of the range and failed to make a new low, two minutes after this price broke to the upside. It was about this time a became aware of where price was in relation to yesterdays high and low and as price chopped I became bias to the short side, however as I am trying to stick to the method I entered a buy order to trigger if price broke higher viewing this as an obstacle and not an immovable object.

Price broke back into the range, it was a brief and shallow re-entry but this made me a little more bearish so buy order got cancelled. At this point I switched to trailing a sell order looking for a possible lower high or double top, As price made its way back to highs it chopped beyond the earlier high which caused me to rethink my stance, sell order cancelled.

I was starting to think I was being a little unreasonable, I think it is justifiable, price was not behaving as expected but as price dropped off I noticed it had formed an ascending wedge (price showing weakness to the upside) the plan now was to wait for a break of the ascending trendline and get short on a retrace.

TRADE 1: Price breaks the trendline and drops, it makes a slight retrace giving an entry at 3828.5 this is potentially a messy area as it is in the middle of the premarket range so there is a risk of getting chopped up, short triggered, there was no definite target in mind just ideas and as price hit the lower part of the channel it got a bit of a reaction, I held off closing initially but as price broke pace I decided to exit and see how it played out.

I'm positive with the aspects of the trade I did end up taking from the entry, management to exit but my prep work was a little sloppy and as far as the other potential trades are concerned the first longs viability could have gone either way and I was fully aware of what I was looking at on the first potential short but doubted my thinking as it developed.

Gozilla +19

Looking good, nice to see you are back. Also please feel free to grace the NQ-analysis thread and drops some intel if you like.

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  #155 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Another day of exceptional moves has come and gone and whilst I got involved I cant help but feel I missed the best of it, probably because I did miss the best of it but what can you do.

There was a couple of things going into the open to bear in mind, price was making a move on the lower portion of the daily range at around 3770 and beyond this support at around 3740 should the range break. The hour prior to open was very interesting but I will leave this for a notes post.

The open found both the trend and support broken, with all this happening I was unsure of how to proceed, a further move down, a pull back and retest of support or the trend line, A rejection of lows and a move back to the range, with no bias I felt free to take my time and see how things developed.

Did not have to wait long before something caught my eye, opening low to the low 8 minutes after open and a parallel line to the opening high had me set for a range, we had a third touch at the lower edge which was proceeded by a high that failed to reach the upper region (notes post). Price gets to the upper portion and instead of rejecting it quickly, it chops then breaks out, this breakout is the first step towards a trade entry but whilst it breaks out it does not go far and fails to break the opening high, price dithers and retests the upper part of the range and the chop (box) this is where I should have entered long but I dithered waiting for more clarity. After the first breakout pull back price took off and it was just a case of waiting for another pull back so I could get long.

The retrace came again like yesterday in a messy area with a trend line in effect from the premarket but as I don't know what will happen next I take the trade on anyway as it is still a valid setup and I will treat any negative move with extreme prejudice.

Trade 1: Price breaks higher triggering an entry, a line is drawn to track the pace and we wait for a break, I make two mistakes here, I am not thinking of where price is in relation to anything (daily at 3770) this may have triggered a quick close at any sign of trouble. And the second mistake was my poor reaction time to the line break as I wanted to give it a little room to breath then reacted out of fear as the ticks started going back to market.

Entry good. Management poor, should have been more aware of 3770 (HTF lines disappear on LTF charts) Exit poor.

Gozilla +6

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 Gozilla 
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With a day like we have just had I thought it would be wise see what learnings could be gleaned from the day to provide ideas to take advantage of days like this that will happen again in the future.

Most of the day is done in hindsight as I switch off once my trade for the day is done as I get a little fed up watching setups come and go and not being able to do anything about it, and given what I saw when I got the charts up I could have done an awful lot of trades.

Given all the action I will have to break it up a little to keep a clear picture. Most of the text I'll keep to the charts.

Premarket.



Open and onwards.

After lunch, Using a 1 minute chart as it seems a little cleaner.

I have trouble using the right idea at the right time but this is what I thought when I first saw the chart, putting this into motion when you are watching it in real time is a huge challenge for me.

I will start to increase the number of trades I allow myself as long as I avoid hitting my daily stoploss in order to get more exposure to these situations.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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The red channel looks like a broken range, unless its just a little oversold. I do expect some kind of retrace but whether it can break back in or not is something to be seen.

Two earlier ranges, one trending and the other horizontal are now back in the picture as described in chart.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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After spending much of the summer hoping that there would be some movement I came to the realisation that what I see now is too much movement, some people are never happy. The speed and size of these moves has raised a slight issue that leaves my feeling like I should be cowering under my desk which might be the safest place for me rather than trying to trade.

During the prep there was a few things that caught my eye, price had dropped overnight, going into the open it was in a range 3685-3722, 3740 was the upper extreme of a possible range and therefore might act as resistance. I also could not miss the big head and shoulder pattern that completed, well it failed by 6-8 ticks to reach target but over a 200+ tick move 6-8 ticks is not really a big stress.



Open onwards: Price is on the move and it is up, we break out of the range and I thought about going long on a retrace but this time a decided to sit tight as the neckline and 3740 are right above and there is also a descending trend line from the 9th (time chart) which is closing in and at this time it was sitting in the high 40s.

Price made it to the neckline at 3738 and got turned back as price made a second stab at this level I got set to enter short, in fact it made a second lower high before the trade was finally triggered.

Trade 1: The trade is on and price whips profit to loss back to profit, knowing the volatility we are experiencing I was aware of how fast it could move but these whips made me want to exit immediately. I hesitated as I don't like to count the time in seconds on one hand.... seems a little knee jerkish to me. Seeing the speed of the whip up, the fear got me and I exited. I could have taken a little more heat, the losses were not the problem it was the speed of the movement that got to me, I felt a little out of my depth.

I continued to watch as I felt I still had another barrel to fire but by the end of the opening hour I was just not willing to take on the risk so called it quits, but what an hour none the less.

Combining live trade and notes to one chart to save time.

Gozilla -13

NOTES:
Topping range, carbon copy from last notes post covering previous days movements, price breaks down tests lower range fails initially, breaks back up but fails at the mid point again. This test creates another range that is retested after price recovers from the drop marked by (A).

Tracking price we get a move that pushes well into the pre market range, whilst this initial move breaks though the midpoint the break and first retrace is above, this long would give a trade that could target either the pre market range high, the neckline, 3740 or you could wait for it to tell you when. This trade was <4 minutes and >100 ticks with a ballsy short setup at around 3740.

Parting notes: Damn I need to pick my game up.

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 Gozilla 
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It felt like a much quieter day today, still some good opportunities on offer but not as white knuckled compared to the rest of the week. I had a problem with the computer and by the time it was resolved I decided to use the day to go over my thinking process over the week so far, that and I thought when I looked at the chart it might just range around.

Not much to cover in the chart, 2 or 3 trades and done unless you really want to be a scalp machine. This is a little more bearable to trade and not as involved but quite a good day if you can sit through it.

First trade long 14 minutes after open, price breaks the descending red trend line near and ascending trend line then puts in a retrace, this is our signal, the lower trend line (blue) would have been altered slightly to take in this low, price trends up keeping the trend line in sight, might not feel like it live but once it goes I think I could have kept it on a slightly longer leash.

Line is tested at 3808 before resuming direction and eventually reaches 3840, I had to check my daily to see if there was anything here that might have halted price. I'm not sure if it means much but 3830 was tested from above in July and August but either way price breaks trend at 3832. The resulting short does not go far before price pulls back to the break price before falling once again giving us a new descending trend line to track price.

The third touch of this line resulted in a sharp drop that pulled well off the line it made an effort to claw back but failed at the midpoint of the drop which is a sign of weakness and a possible place to short or add to a position, the trend line catches up to price and we get another drop off but this time it fails to push lower an exit could be justified (DB) or like the first trade wait until the line is broken.

A less frantic day with good opportunities, but who knows how I would have managed all this in real time.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Monday and Tuesday have felt very different compared to last week and whilst the moves are still good I have struggled to identify places to enter once the day is under way. Any opportunity I have seen has come within the first few minutes or during the overnight, once you have a clear entry there are not a whole lot of reasons to back out of a trade as it grinds away.

A little context might help make some decisions, or at least my take on what I see.

Starting with the daily chart.



Price dropped out of the red channel and made a move on 3740 which is resistance from march now being tested as support, two days running it made deep moves (50 points) but failed to close beyond, the second day also saw it retest the trend. If price cant go down what options does that leave.

Price makes it back into the range and from then on in it is a question of whether of not it can get back the the mean and onwards to the upper extreme via a break of previous highs. The context of price testing the trending range at one extreme and not finding its way beyond and making a move back to the mean might (I might be way off, assumptions,perceptions etc.) in some way explain the grind we have been on the last few trading days.

A trader who is on the ball, understands what is potentially happening and is happy to swing would be pretty well set just now and if the trade was taken there is still no valid reason to exit yet.



Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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I have been a little slack when it comes to updating my journal for the last three trading days of last week and as I am limited for time I'll just make a brief recap to cover those days.

Wednesday 22 October.

Trade 1: Leading up to the open I felt price was ranging (red channel) it is a little messy so I decided to wait and see how price would behave at the extremes, initially passed on a short that presented itself a couple of minutes after open as it was on the mean of the channel which might have been in my mind a little riskier when it comes to chop.

Having identified a range, price broke below and retraced, as price dropped off I went short, trade failed to follow through and I exited.

Oversight: I discounted the overnight high at 3983, if I had been paying attention to the mean that was identified at 3969, this breakdown to the downside was just price moving to the bottom of its expanded range so it was not a breakdown at all.

I am okay with the trade as it stands alone but the oversight was poor and having understood that in hindsight I would have been looking for a long in this area.

Trade 2: Long on a double bottom at range lows. Did not work out and I hesitated slightly on the exit.


Thursday 23 October.

Premarket range going into the open, the breakout was a little sloppy for me so I held off on a long, I then missed a couple of other opportunities to get long.

Trade 1: Break of trend, shorted earlier than I should have, price eventually got going and dropped off, it then made a move up and got to 50% of the drop from the retrace high so I exited to wait and see.

1 Minute chart used for this trade. Poor entry but I am okay with the management on this one.


Friday 24 October.

Was unable to do any premarket work so I was a little on the hop for the opening minutes. Price had been trending up in the premarket and by this point on the daily I was biased to the upside, 30 minutes after open price had broken trend a little cleaner than the proceeding 10 minutes.

Trade 1: Price had made the break and I watched the pull back, I made an error when I entered the order using the wrong order type this triggered me in instantly, the plan was to catch it on the drop not as it continued to rally, trade exited immediately.

Lack of attention got me into trouble on this one.

Price had been on the climb for 30 minutes or so, I deliberated for a while about taking a long, I identified a break on a 5 minute chart with a retrace, I decided to take the trade on but using the 300 tick for the entry.

Trade 2: By the time I got my order in price had made a second touch of the trend line making a higher low, trade was triggered. Took a little heat on this one but it did not do enough to stop me out, it felt like it took a while to come good and rallied. With the high in mind I watched price perhaps a little to close and as it neared this level it chopped slightly, I over reacted and exited the trade, this was a fear based exit rather than method based.

With the resulting price action it is a close call as to whether or not I would have closed out the trade for a smaller profit but as I do not know what will happen next I cannot react in such a knee jerk fashion every time price comes back a tick or two, ebb and flow.


My rota is up and I am back to the grind, it has been a while since I have been able to say this but I close this stint at home with a profit, it's by a small margin but its still a positive. Also, whilst I have missed a lot of opportunities and made some mistakes I feel I have done a better job of it this time around compared to other periods throughout the year.

Gozilla. +16

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 Gozilla 
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Update covering the moves over the last 3 weeks.

Back to the top of the trending range, will it continue to push higher? Or will there be a move down from here.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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As part of a little preparation to get back in the ring I thought I would have a look at things in the time frames that I would typically make my decisions on where and when to take on a trade.

The 1 minute and 300 tick show the same thing. Price has been going sideways in a roughly 35 point multi-day range, this range highlights where I should be taking shorts and longs or waiting for a retest should a breakout occur. Within this range price gets very choppy and trades are best avoided unless they are at the extremes.

The other thing to bear in mind is possible weakness to the upside with the highs failing to make it all the way back to the top of the range, this might be related to the daily (previous post) being at the top of its range and possibly exerting some kind of influence on the lower time frames when it comes to upside movements.


Gozilla.

NOTES:
60 minute chart updated from post #160 showing the value of trading higher time frames.

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 Gozilla 
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Not a whole lot to report since my last post but thought I would make an update to track successes and failures.

My first week at home was a write off as my body clock refused to adjust to a more civilised schedule coming off nights and as a result I took on three trades none of which really did anything of note. This state of discombobulation lingered into the second week starting on the 24th November, there was only one trade to note for this week but it was one I have thought about a lot since.



This brings us up to the start of this week and where I have finally felt a little more average compared the the first two weeks but this does not necessarily mean much as I feel like I have messed up a bit too much for my liking during the week so far.

Monday 1st December.

So much for being focused and attentive, to start with I missed the multi-top 3 minutes after open as a low risk short, then I missed the break down and retest 15 minutes later, at the time of the pull back I was eating and felt nothing much would come of it.

We eventually got a rally which I did nothing about but I decided to see what would happen as price retraced 50% of the drop, it broke lower and once price started to rally I trailed a short, price rallied back to the high where I decided to short it as a DT going into possible resistance.

Trade triggered but price failed to follow through and the stop was hit.

After breaking higher price chopped, I wanted to take a long at this point but as price was approaching the channel I was hesitant to enter as the lower portion including the breakdown retest area might act as resistance meaning little upside to a long so I held off. Price broke black dash and put in a quick retrace, at this point I was biased to the upside and wanted to see price break a previous swing low prior to entering.

Price broke another line and previous swing low and a trade was taken off the subsequent retrace, my exit was poor as price at the time was still in trend and had yet to break any previous swing highs in the drop, the correct exit would have been 20 minutes later and around 20 ticks better. I was nervous and did not like the way price was moving as it seemed indecisive at the time.



Had planned on putting 3 days trading on one post but it seems a little long winded so I'll chop it up.

Gozilla.

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Looks like your first image didn't post. (This is a known futures.io (formerly BMT) issue; sometimes the person who uploaded it can see it, but others can't.)

Can you re-load it?

Thanks.

Bob.

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 bobwest 
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Thanks. That worked.

Bob.

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 Gozilla 
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Tuesday and Wednesday can be combined as Tuesday was a one and done deal.

Tuesday 2nd December.

Premarket was a little hard to make heads or tails out of, I had previous days lows and overnight highs marked out as price was within this area, as for the rest, it seemed really messy.

Trade taken after a quick retrace once price failed to push the overnight high, I was not entirely keen leading into it as I felt price was overly erratic, but I'm trying to push myself on taking trades on as per method. I went into the trade with a clear idea of where my exit would be but I still allowed it to push further than I should have.

I continued to watch for a while but quit as price seemed to continue chopping and I thought it would be safer to sit on my hands.



Wednesday 3rd December.

Going into the open I thought there was a possible range in play with price making a double top on the previous days highs, whilst I considered a short right after this DT the retrace was midrange and a little dicey for my liking. Price continued to rally and eventually broke the DT, at this point I now considered going long, but, this breakout led into the support from Mondays range, support becomes resistance.

There were three attempts to break higher on this time frame and by the third attempt I wanted to short, but, again there were considerations to consider. Resistance from the DT might act as support and an ascending trend line coming in to play. I felt that the best option, the safest option was to wait for both to be broken prior to taking on a short.

We got the break I was waiting for then the retrace, as the retrace happened I was again pondering the mid range issue, I decided to hell with it just take the trade as method dictates, and then I mess up again.

Trade triggered, I'm tracking my short and trying to figure out my lines, this distracts me for a moment and in that moment price gets slammed. In my mind price teleported 35 ticks lower into possible support and was now bouncing, being wary of this range I over react and exit.

My problem with this exit is twofold, first problem is my exit should have been on any bounce at a possible support if that was the case my exit was slow, secondly, I eyeballed the halfway point of the drop from swing high to low and could see I had about a point to go, having missed the first exit I could have given it room to push a little more and still come out positive but the fear of giving back profit allowed emotion to push the button.

This trade lasted 52 seconds, the correct exit would have been 15 minutes later and at least 30 ticks better off depending on the definition of what a swing high is and when it is breached.

I don't necessarily need to put lines in to track what is happening but I find they can point to things that give me something to think about that I might have otherwise dismissed or been oblivious to.

Second trade was uneventful, considered a long prior to taking this trade but price was too close the the high low mid point so scrubbed that idea, ended up taking a short when price failed to move higher on its second attempt to push beyond this level, price seemed to churn which I did not like as it struck me as hesitant so I exited (non-method) whilst it turned out I was right to do so I cannot say it was the right decision as it was a gut feeling more that anything definitive.


Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Think I may have finally caught up with myself.

Thursday 4th December.

The hour prior to open saw a 25 point move down this gave me a possible range, by open price had clawed back some of this move and was sitting at its midpoint, there was not really anything to do until price approached these extremes so I waited.

Price did eventually move higher but this was quickly rejected, again there was a rally back to this high where I decided I would short as a DT, price dropped off and the trade was triggered, the TL was questionable at the time, I initially planned to exit if there was a reaction to this but I hesitated, I knew at the time I should have exited sooner but I was feeling a little conflicted for some reason. Give it room, give it time.

With each test bringing a higher low I was preparing for a break to the upside, if however I was not biased to the upside one could have taken a short off the third or forth failure to break higher with a stop above this resistance as a possible range play. I considered this but I was biased long and I had been burnt once off this resistance I was not willing to get burnt again until I had more proof.

Price broke lower and the setup pointed to a short, in terms of it being in the range it was a little sloppy but they cant all be perfect, we get a drop off and price tested the descending line but continued moving lower and this is where I make another mistake, I exit for no real reason.

Maybe I am watching the tick too much, I am used to trades being over and done with quite often within 2 minutes, I have been pushing myself to hold the trades I take until there is a reasonable exit, but once a trade moves from seconds into minutes I get twitchy and start over thinking every up and down. I need more exposure on this to get acclimatised to longer holds.

A couple of things to note on the charts, 300 tick and 1 minute covered as some setups are clearer on one and not the other. I had to go out after trade 2 so I missed the rest of it.



Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Price seems to be chopping now so I am going to end it for the week, this also brings my rota at home to an end and I most likely will not trade until the new year. Only one trade taken today and I felt challenged when it came to the holding aspect but I think I managed it better this time around.

Pre-market price was still within the previous days high and low, it had also tested the midpoint of this range at 4310.75 as a DB. At open there was a brief rally into the overnight highs in the upper part of the range, there was a break of pace and a retrace which was taken as a short.

There were two things ahead on the drop that might interfere with progress, an ascending support line coming from the range lows and the midpoint of the range. The first hurdle was the ascending trend line, as we crept down to this line price seemed to churn and as usual I got twitchy.

Previous touches resulted in swift rejections, though slowing price was still pushing down and eventually it broke and churned on the line before pushing lower, this move lower was into the range midpoint and making a triple bottom. Price began to chop which I kind of expected and after a few moments I decided to exit and wait for the chop to clear and enter once a direction was a little more obvious. After watching price for a bit I decided to call an end to it as I felt it would just chop around.

Coincidentally 28th November high to the 1st December low shares the same midpoint as today's range.

Gozilla.


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I realised during my stint offshore that I might have missed something, and due to the close to non existent internet that we have out there I only had a vague idea of what was going on and could only confirm my suspicions once I got home. Whilst I was right about my assumptions, taking advantage of this at the time is another question to think about.

A brief run down of my thoughts on this:

October saw a breakdown of the red channel, this move lasts a day or so before price returned to the channel and made a move to the mean and onwards to the upper extreme eventually breaking to the upside towards the end of November.

Seeing as range expansions have been mentioned a number of times in the intraday context I should have considered a daily range expansion, Octobers breakdown from the range was around 340 ticks, I should have been aware of the potential for expansion at this point once price returned to the range.

At the time of the breakdown I was biased towards a long term change in trend, as price moved to highs and broke out I again had time to consider this but I think my bias may have been towards an increased speed of ascent in price, price again ran around 340 ticks beyond the upper extreme before dropping off and giving a short entry on the 8th if swing trading, with targets at the mean and lower extremes.

Though I was not in a position to trade from the 8th onwards I still feel this was a big oversight on my part and whilst I do not consider myself a multiday holder of a position its hard not to notice an opportunity that can offer 800 ticks to first target and double that to the second.

I get too focused on the smaller picture from time to time and need to take a step back to get my bearings more often.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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I am on holiday visiting family so no trading until the middle of next week but this break has given me time to think about the year that has been and what lies ahead. It always seems to fall around new year when certain thoughts occur to me, I would not go as far to say they are aha moments but they are certain realisations regarding my trading that I think bring me closer to reaching my goals, in order to get to where I am now I will cover some of my history.

2000-2012.
Started trading after hearing all the good time stories, initially traded stocks on the asx using technical analysis on higher time frames, eventually got involved in warrants and reduced the time frame from eod to intraday trading. Over this 12 year period I traded multiple instruments, multiple markets using all sorts of time frames, indicators and methods.

And whilst I had some big gains here and there, they were always given back with interest, I blew a few accounts along the way and more often than not it was death by a thousand cuts as opposed to going out with a bang. I had a lot of periods in this time where I did not trade, sometimes as much as 2 years either due to a lack of capital, time or optimism that trading consistently profitable was something that was achievable.

2012-2013
As ever a new year seems to bring about a sense of optimism, as I looked over charts I could see all of these TA patterns that I first learned but had moved on from as I added indicator after indicator thinking this would make me a better trader.

My realisation at this time was that my understanding of the indicators and how they work was poor, this poor understanding led to conflicting signals and confusion which led to inconsistent trading and results. My understanding of technical analysis in terms of pattern recognition and actions was still good despite the time that had passed so I decided to strip off all the indicators and go back to basics, perhaps more importantly stick with the method for a stretch rather than quitting it after a few failures and work towards understanding how it works better.

2013-2014
I was still failing, and I had a good idea why. At this point in time I did not have a cohesive plan or method and it was something that I had resisted for a long time, I was flying by the seat of my pants and taking trades or avoiding trades based on emotion. The method was sound but without rules or an actionable plan I would choke or even take the wrong side as I did not believe the trade was right.

I had entered a spiral of self sabotage, a film springs to mind. Maverick was a good pilot possibly the best in class but he had issues, Iceman was consistently good and was crowned top gun, whilst many would aspire to be the hero in any story and let's face it he came good in the end, I would not mind being a side character when I apply this thought to trading.

My realisation, I need to sit down and have a method and plan in place that is back tested and sets out rules as to entry, management and exit criteria and actions that I will take if predefined conditions are met.

My method tweaked slightly around this time in how I approach looking and thinkng about price so I feel I still struggled the first half of the year (still a little resistance) and since the summer break where I studied it a lot I have been on a go slow but have struggled with my mentality which brings me up to this New Years realisation.

2014-2015
Since the summer break there has been a theme that has come up a lot during my trades, whilst I am confident in my method and analysis, when I do take the trades I take them where I should but I have issues holding and exiting where I should.

My realisation this time, years of poor trading and poor results have left their mark, the habits that have sprung up to protect myself from pain are now at odds with my method and what I am trying to achieve. When I am unsure, have doubts or any kind of negative emotion comes into my mind, I can imagine any number of reasons to get out, my habit, my go to in case of emergencies is to get myself back into the comfort zone by getting flat.

This habit and action kicks in before any exit criteria is met whether the trade is working or not. I feel that in order to advance I need to follow the method better and to do this I need to stay out of the comfort zone as long as I need to to see the trade to its end.

This year will be painful and I will struggle at times but if I can make it to the other side I will be all the better for it.

Happy New Year.
Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Just posting a couple of snapshots to see where we are at this moment in time.

Gozilla.


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 Gozilla 
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First trades of the year and whilst I had a positive end result, some oversights and an old habit prevented it from being better.

My previous post covered the action on the higher time frames of the daily and the 60 minute, I thought about adding a lower time frame but thought it might be just as easily covered in my post trade analysis.

It was pretty hard to miss the 100 point drop in the overnight session, the high and low was marked off and the midpoint of this drop was sitting 4141, I wont take trades just because price is at an extreme or on the mean, it is more a fixed point where I can really see how price is behaving and if any action is needed. The other level of concern is 4080 as price has reacted to it a number of times in recent weeks.

Trade 1:
Going into the open I thought we had the start of a small range with the premarket high at 4160 and the low on the overnight midpoint at 4140. As the bell rang price looked like it was breaking out (entry decision on the 1 minute chart), I prepared to go long on a retrace but as price pulled back below the last swing high I saw this as a rejection of a breakout. As price rallied again I decided to place a short to catch any further rejection if price failed to push higher.

I was a little concerned at the time that I was getting involved right after open and thought that this could just be an opening whipsaw, but as the trade was triggered price followed through on further rejection from the opening high and left me with little reason to be worried as the trade unfolded.

Trade was managed on the 300 tick chart, the pace of the drop slowed a little as it broke below the overnight MP, we then get a small rally which does two thing at the same time, breaks a previous swing high and also breaks back above the overnight MP, I take this as a rejection of a move lower and I decide to close the trade.

I am okay with the exit as a stand alone but my exit was in the first pullback after a break of trend (Blue ascending TL) if I was not short already I would have looked to get short here, the TL was not drawn in at the time as this was an oversight in my prep prior to open. Also as a side note, price failed to make a higher low after nudging past the previous swing high so there was no entry opportunity to go long.

I continued to watch price drop and was waiting for price to hit the overnight low prior to making another trade, Having the price highlight gives me a heads up, I became biased, I was waiting for price to reach a predetermined level where I would wait and see if certain behaviour would exhibit for a long. And because I was waiting for price to reach 4092 I missed the behaviour I was looking for in the rejection of 4100.

Price rallied all the way back to the overnight MP where I waited, price took a couple of stabs at this level, I placed an order to short and get in on any drop from this level.

Trade 2: Old Habits Die Hard.
With the trade being triggered price did not seem to drop with as much gusto as the first trade, unrealistic expectations perhaps. I really struggled in this trade, the drop felt slow and indecisive, I had tunnel vision on the tick and every tick up felt like a rally, eventually I caved in and exited the trade.

I exited without any real reason, my stop was intact and as I had moved it to match the drop it would have been around the same price as the break of a swing high (300 tick chart) so the trade was safe, this was a trade with a good entry but poor exit. And it was a trade taken with the idea in mind of price moving back to the lows after failing to make progress to the upside and whilst I got a part of it I fell well short of the mark on this one.

+74
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 Gozilla 
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In the interest of continuity I will cover my final day of trading for January before I make any updates.

Going into the open there were a few things that had to be worked out, previous days high (4190) to overnight low (4041) had a MP at 4116, whilst I did not think that price could make it all the way back to the upper extreme of the range the MP was not out with the realm of possibilities, also it is always best to keep an open mind as what will happen during the day is unknown at this time.

The other thing to note is that price at the moment prior to open is at an area of support that becomes resistance, coincidentally this level is halfway between the previously mentioned MP and overnight low.

Trade 1:
Price fails to break higher above this area of resistance and as it drops my short is triggered but price instantly reverses and rallies back to resistance, I think I make a couple of mistakes at this point, my exit is slow so I lose a little more than I should have as I was influenced by the resistance, I still exit below resistance.

The reasoning behind the exit where it was is more to do with the failure of price to follow through on a push lower after rejecting a move higher, with price coming back to resistance as quick as it did it was not doing what I expected it to do with the reasoning I had at the time.

At this point it might have been best to quit, I took a bigger loss than I should have on my first trade which left me with 7 ticks to play with before I hit my daily loss limit, if a trade had come up my stop could have been too tight to manage the trade correctly so at this point my reasoning goes off.

Trade 2: The pressure is on.
Price had rallied into a range (4099-4105) then broke down, I shorted a retrace, and price continued to drop but all I could think about was breaking even or at least making up some of the losses of the first trade, I exited the trade where I did as it ticked back a bit and I got worried I might not leave myself with much room in further trades if they presented themselves.

I spent some time away from the screens at this point as I felt I had been a bit daft in my decision making process.

Trade 3:
Price had rallied for a brief stretch and had come back to the highs leading into trade 2, we had a brief break of trend before a drop lower where I shorted, and again as earlier I panicked as price stuttered after a couple of minutes and I exited the trade for a small gain.

Obviously I am still trading emotionally at this point but I did not feel at the time it was as big an influence as it might have been.

Trade 4:
Price puts in a DT a few points shy of the MP at 4116 breaks the trend and retraces, I short as price drops, but again price fails to follow through so I exit the trade. The only thing I could have done differently with this one is have the stop just beyond the retrace high but given the trades to this point that would have stretched me a bit more than I would have liked.

Overall a pretty poor day when it comes to trading, my main concern was not with the PNL but with my process and how emotions invaded so many aspects of my decision making process.

-13
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 Gozilla 
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Not a whole lot to cover for the last 3 weeks of PA, price is still hanging around the MP of the daily trending channel and has established an area of support around the 4080 area, the highs however seem to be in decline, at least for the time being.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Two trades to cover, one for Tuesday 10th of February and the other for Wednesday, Thursday was a write off as I slept in for market open, I thought I was turned around after coming off night shift but sleep deprivation makes you think all kinds of crazy things.

Tuesday 10th February:
Two hours prior to market open price had broken out above the previous days high at 4232, I was not looking to take on any trades instead choosing to watch until we got closer to the bell. Price retested former resistance now as support and rallied to a lower high then a higher low creating a wedge/hinge, the apex and price to watch would be around 4238.

Trade 1: Poor trade, tired, weak grasp of this price behaviour.
Just prior to the bell price broke to the downside and into support, it failed and returned to the apex where it chopped, I decided to try a long if it broke above this chop, it did, slightly, triggering my long and then dropping like a rock straight down past the apex. Trade exited, I should have waited for a more substantial move away from this level and entered on a pull back.

Notes:
Continued watching price more from a learning point of view and could see a few things going on, price began forming a downward channel, despite all the efforts price could not make much progress through 4232 the final climactic drop did go as low as 28 but this was quickly rejected in a small rally to 4235 and a quick retrace back to support could have been taken as a long signal.


Wednesday 11th February:
Leading into the open price had been in a range 4272-4279 whilst the upper part was not the overnight high it was the most immediate level that price had found resistance at prior to open. I missed the initial breakout and retest so decided to wait and see.

Trade 1: Did not work out.
Price rallied to 4292.5 before dropping off again, I was looking for either a continuation breaking higher or a retrace then drop, we got a one bar retrace (pink dot) and I was triggered short, price failed to follow through and rallied breaching the last swing high, I went for the exit and got a bad fill exacerbating the loss.

Notes:
After double topping at 4300 price churned in a 10 point range eventually dropping out and falling hard, this drop came to an end at the mean of the overnight range.


-36
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 Gozilla 
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Have to update my daily chart as PA over the week has wiped out my descending trend line through the daily highs on my daily at the start of the week and now the PA is pointing to new horizons.

With price failing to negotiate through the mean to the other extreme of the uptrend, price might now be going back to the upper extreme for another look, who knows what will happen next.

Gozilla.

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 tturner86 
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Good to see you posting again, missed you buddy.

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 Gozilla 
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tturner86 View Post
Good to see you posting again, missed you buddy.

Work, holiday then work again left me with very little time in front of the screens other than a couple of days last month thats been it for trading for 9 weeks, it feels a little alien trying to get back into the routine of trading and posting and I am so far struggling to pick up where I left off but we'll get there I'm sure.

Hope you are feeling better.

Gozilla.

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 Gozilla 
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Friday the 13th turned out to be a bad day, not just in terms of P&L which was not my main worry but more in how I behaved and traded, a rule was broken before I even took my first trade and I knew I was not myself but persevered anyway which only compounded the problem.

I will get the excuses out of the way first, I had not slept the night before, I convinced myself I was going to be ok but the reality was I was struggling and knew that I should not have been trading live. The second break from the norm was in the management of the trade I took on.

A small range was identified going into the open 4353.5 - 4359 a little too tight for me to want to scalp so I decided to sit back and see what happens at open, at open price pushes a little lower, this is rejected immediately and price eventually pushes higher out of the top of the range by the same extent. Again this move is rejected with price pulling back into the range, price pulls back in this drop roughly to the mean.

At this point I think we might have the beginning of a slightly expanded range, price rallies again breaking higher then retraces back to the previous high.

Trade 1: Poor management.
Price again breaks higher triggering a long, immediately price rejects this move and this is where I start under reacting. The immediate rejection is a warning sign, is this behaving like a breakout should? No. but I was unable to react, price continued dropping and moved past my stop, did I exit here? No. I wanted to see how it would react to what I thought was the range top. When the range top was broken did I exit, again the answer was No, simply put I was too tired to care.

This is not acceptable behaviour for someone who would one day like to make a living from this.

Still learning.
-27
Gozilla.



NOTES:
I was stopped for the day so I was able to watch without the preoccupation of where to take trades or manage them. Price makes its way to the bottom of the range and beyond, it puts in a rally that fails to get to the PM range top and drops sharply to 4348, from here it makes an even sharper rally to the PM range high before dropping again, whilst the drop to 48 is a little more protracted this time the failure to push lower gives us a double bottom.

My thoughts at this time, climactic behaviour that has been stopped at 4348, a second drop that dithers towards the lows making a DB, could this be a level that price cant make its way beyond, could this be a range low? and if that is the case, could the high at 4357 be the opposing extreme?

Price rallied and it was during the rally that I shut it down so the rest is in hindsight.

There is a slight hiccup in the rally to 4357 but price does get there and surpasses it, after reaching 4368 it drops off to a minor level of resistance that becomes support, it gets a little messy around here but price rallies back to highs and then pushes higher, this push fails immediately, we get a couple of small rets before price drops again in a climactic fashion.

Things to think about, Where does this drop stop? premarket low, though it stops there price has gone through it a lot how relevant it is at this point? The second push lower fails making a DB or higher low, climax plus inability of price to continue lower on a second push is bullish.

Price rallies for a bit before coming up to an area where price as been resistance, support and now it is acting as resistance again, price chokes then drops, this drop is halted at the mean of the PM range, again, how relevant is it at this point? price goes on a rally from here and though there are a few testing pull backs it could be held to EOD.

Whether or not I could have done well out of this in real time is a whole other story.

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 Gozilla 
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No updates up to this point as there were no trades on Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday however provided opportunities for potential trades.

Pre market there were a few things to work out, price was still inside Mondays high-low 4388-4365 the low, Monday into Tuesday overnight action had created a double bottom in the low end and Tuesday market had seen price get close to the high end a number of times but fail. The early hours of Wednesday had led to price popping higher but this was short lived.

The Mean of this range was sitting at 4376 and as this was the last low prior to Tuesdays close I would be looking here to see how price behaved in this area.

At open price was nowhere near any of the predefined areas so it became a case of waiting and watching, over the first half hour price seemed to be slowly making its way lower but was putting in a lot of retracements and churn as it did so.

Price popped lower into 4376.5 which is also the pre market low and got a little rally, it made another retrace back to lows triggering the long order.

Trade 1: Did not work out.
After getting triggered in on a higher low price briefly rallied but it ran into the previous swing high where it rejected and then proceeded to drop out of the range, trade was exited immediately.

I don't have a problem with the trade, I took it as a range play, in hindsight the drop out looks like a shake out but one would not know that at the time. Long could be reinitiated once price returns to the range.

Price rallies back to opening highs where it runs out of steam at 4385-86, it drifts lower eventually tagging 4367.5 I had to go out at the time so missed the DB entry at this level. We rally up to 4388 and once there a short could have been initiated either on the initial rejection of 88 or the lwer high that followed, but this is FOMC at work and understandable if the trade was passed on.

It was around this time that I began to consider 4376 as the range low, at least on from an intraday perspective.

Eventually price makes its way back to 4376.5, it blows through a little but rejects, after taking a second stab at it my long gets triggered.

Trade 2: Probably a management flaw.
Again this is a range play with the upper extreme of 4388 being in the sights, price rallied as far as 85 before making a retrace, the retrace did not confirm creating a lower high the subsequent drop stopped me out.

It seems hindsight now given what happened next but if I take this as a range play I could have afforded to let it play out as such, but on the flip side, how much room can you give it? A question I will ponder for a while yet I think.

Price rallied and eventually broke out to all time highs, we get a pull back to resistance that should act as support where a long is initiated.

Trade 3: No follow through.
Trade was taken on the premise of this being a breakout, after pulling back to the breakout level and rallying price seemed to dither, if this was a breakout where were the buyers coming into support it, after failing to break the initial high and setting some higher lows price broke down, the trade was exited for a small loss.

I had a feeling pretty quick that this was going to happen but I sat on it willing to accept a small loss in order to give it some room to play out.

Interesting price action throughout the day just did not get the moves to make it pay.

0
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 Gozilla 
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In the interest of continuity I'm going to make a quick update as to the activity during my last foray into the markets starting from the 10th of February to the 26th. Whilst the result is very poor there was a lot for me to take from this experience which I will learn from.

1. To begin with, I traded when I should have sat out. After coming off hitch, especially nights, I need to be sure that I am well rested and in a daytime routine prior to doing anything that involves thinking, concentration, focus. It took 9-10 days last time around to get in anything resembling good shape this time around.

2. When I did get going price was ranging multiday and I quickly found that my plan is very weak and certain rules worked against me.

Identify the range, wait for price to reach the extreme of said range, identify the behaviour that has been predefined at the extreme of the range take the reversal at the extreme, or trade the breakout and manage as per plan.

Sounds easy, but, I did not take every trade as I should have for a number of reasons.

A. At times I was more engrossed in the observation than the trading, I was writing a rolling commentary most days that I was updating regularly, by the time the day was over I was too tired to do chart or trade reviews.

B. I go on a cool down after each trade as over trading has been a problem in the past, often the failure of the trade in one direction is a nod to taking the trade in the opposite direction, or even a failure of one trade can lead to a re-entry a few minutes later. (e.g first trade last chart, initial long fails as price breaks lower, we re-enter the range where a trade long would be taken but my cool down stops this.) Obviously a breakout trade short might also be taken when price pushes out of the range but there is only a couple of points at risk and one does not know what trade will work and what wont at the time.

What am I going to do about all this, from a psychological point of view I was ok with every trade that I took regardless of the result and was clear in what I should do next, I've decided to remove the cool down but will continue to monitor my actions more closely when reviewing my trades and charts.

I have a clear idea of what I will be looking for and how I will get in and manage a trade but first I will have a little testing to do to see if my hypothesis stacks up.

Gamera.

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  #183 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Possibly going to do a lot of updating over the next couple of days with notes on ranges, what I am looking at, and how I can better take advantage of them in the future.

Questions to look at are:

Identifying the extremes of a range and the mean of the range.
How wide a range do I want it to be before I will get involved?
In terms of behaviour, what do I look for at the extremes to trigger a trade?
How do I manage a trade?
How close does it need to be to the extreme to consider an entry or exit, range expansion and contraction?
Do I trade to opposite extreme or bust?
What tells could there be that suggest price cant get there? e.g Choking on the mean, passing mean and coming back, reversal pattern, DB, DT, HTF context.

I will also be looking at what happens when price breaks out and how it behaves outside the range in the initial moments of a breakout.

Whilst I want to keep assumptions to an absolute minimum I will make one for the time being regarding behaviour at the extreme, if price has found the extreme it should most likely reject it quickly as it may represent an area where traders cant/wont move beyond as price has moved away from the mean and value.

Just to bear in mind, value is constantly being reassessed and if it hangs around an extreme or fails to reach an extreme it could be a sign that there is a shift in balance.






Putting together a plan of attack and looking at what needs to be tested in the next post.

Gamera.

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 Gozilla 
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First step in trading a range is identifying the range which can at times be easier said than done.

Once the range has been identified, one must locate the extremes, I am working on the principal that price will rotate around the mean roughly equidistant, but, not perfectly, price may fail to reach the extreme or push beyond the limits slightly. Higher time frame context may have an influence on how price works its way to, at, or beyond the extreme.

For the time being trades will be taken in range, but, as I make more observations regarding behaviour I may short a reversal above the range, or long a reversal on a failure of a breakdown. Always consider what a breakout should do versus what it is doing, breakouts don't tend to hang around for long.

Setting up some rules to make life a little easier:

Longs at the bottom of the range.
Shorts at the top of the range.
No trades in the middle of the range.

Prior to open price may develop a range that is inside a larger range, if the range itself is too narrow to trade a breakout of this range may be taken with the next decision to be made once price reaches one of the wider extremes.

Management:

There are a couple of theories that I will have to keep tabs on and this is where the bulk of my focus is.

The first theory, Initiate a trade at the extreme and let it run to the opposing extreme or let price hit the stop which would be just outside the limits, reassess behaviour once price gets to target extreme. very hands off.

The second theory, which is a lot more hands on involves looking for tells, price creating a DB or DT in range, price passing the mean and rejecting, or failed retracements.

I suspect HTF context may set up a directional bias that might make certain behaviours more pertinent than others so there may be a third option that is a hybrid of the two which may require a degree of finesse that I currently lack.

My focus is on the difference, theory 1 might have a lower win rate but higher point gain, vice versa for theory 2. The other aspect to acknowledge regarding ranges seems to be that larger ranges can get cut in half with the price respecting the mean and reacting to it as if it is an extreme.

Tolerances:

In terms of acceptable risk tolerance, I can accept a loss of 3-4 points without being affected, I can accept a number of losing trades in a row, my focus is the process, good process will yield results.

Entries and exits:

Trailing stop orders on entries, as noted in the last few charts price fails to make it all the way to the extremes failing a point or so in a number of instances, As a 3 point loss is tolerable, once price gets to within 2 points of the extreme I would set an order and trail it behind once the zone has been penetrated keeping back 3 or 4 ticks. Once price reaches the opposing extreme follow the same principal to exit and flip position. Eventually as noted I may move onto judging the behaviour and entering tighter on any signs of rejection at the extreme, but for the time being I want to keep it simple.

The reasoning behind trailing an order behind price is to be swept into the unfolding direction should price react to the extreme, it also gives one a chance to see if price can breakout, if it does so, one is already positioned for the breakout and possible trend that may result from a breakout

There are a lot of nuances that I am thinking about, but, in this example we will track trades as target or bust.

The attached chart takes the trades from buffer edge to buffer edge, some fills will be a inside the buffer some a tick or two out.

Gamera.

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  #185 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Some of the finer points behind managing a trade involves paying attention to what price is doing, the last post was a target or bust approach, which is fine if price is in a clean range, but, if the lines seem a little blurred or the information changes one could find themselves giving back a lot more than they are willing to accept.

Gamera.


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  #186 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Trying to stay up to date with what is unfolding in the market in real time.

Gamera.

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  #187 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Was getting a little sick of looking over charts, charts and more charts so decided to do some live application.

A little preparation goes a long way in helping to understand what the market participants are up to. As all my pre market analysis is done on the charts I will be trading off I did not feel the need to save the prep for posterity so I am working backwards, But my thoughts were scribbled down.

Daily: Price is chewing up the mean of the channel, until price moves decisively from this area price may churn, this does not mean there will not be opportunities, in fact there may be a lot of opportunities, too many, which might lead to one being chopped up, and those opportunities that do arise may develop suddenly and be very short lived.


60 Minute: Possibly ranging down from the upper extreme of the daily, but, it is a shallow trend, beyond that price is in the lower half of this range having rejected a move at the mean. There has also been a rejection of a breakdown at the lower extreme.


5 Minute: Gets a little sloppy annotating the charts with the levels that were in my head but this is what I was looking at, Price was being squeezed to a point, the most immediate levels of concern (blue) gave me a 20 point range, as I know what I am looking for on an entry the levels are just a guideline on where to look.


The first trade happens quick, market opens and tags 4310 which is the top of the PM range, it fails to pass and I drop an order behind to catch any fall.

Trade 1: Poor entry, poor prep.
First off the entry was a point worse off than it should have been, the second issue I have was in overlooking the low 47 minutes prior to the open. Its not just the low it is also the fact it is at a round number that can always get a little attention.

Price dropped off quick and ran into 4300 where it made a very sudden reversal, the miss dawned on me so I exited the trade. I could have held for the stop above the range but with price making such an aggressive move off 4300 I had my doubts as to whether the UL would hold.

I was still working out what was happening when the second test and failure happened at the range top so I missed that entry on the short side. Price dropped off and broke below 4300, we had a brief pull back to test 4300 where I decided to take a short.

Trade 2: No follow through,chop.
The retest of the range lows was to be expected on the breakdown, the retest however did push back into range slightly so my entry was placed to catch it should it drop out again, which it did, but, price chopped back in triggering an exit.

I decided to sit back and wait for things to calm down a bit as the levels where getting blurred, I watched price reach 4320 where there was a possible short but by this time I was writing the day off as a chop up.

Gozilla -7

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  #188 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Despite the prep and the 60 minute context pointing up I failed to get a hold of the situation, by the time I clicked I was hesitant to chase price as I often end up coming off worse.

Starting with the preparation, not a whole lot to update in regards to the daily chart, price is below the daily mean but is still struggling to clear this area. The 60 minute had seen a drop off to the lower part of the range which was tested and rejected overnight, if this can hold the line of least resistance is back up to the mean and the upper extreme from there, but, the daily mean might make progress difficult.


The 15 minute chart shows the immediate range and levels that might be worth watching, I also marked off the drop to see how price might react at the MP and the drop source.


The minutes leading up to the open found price at the upper extreme of the PM range, I decided to initiate a short at this extreme with the lower extreme as target.

Trade 1:Knee jerk with reason.
With the time being as close to the open as it was I could have passed, but, as it was at an area that called for an action I felt I had to take it when the behaviour exhibited itself. There was a swift drop off which ran into the mean, price bounced and I exited, if opening volatility was an issue it was halted at the mean which got my attention, whilst this could have just been a retrace I pulled the plug on the trade to wait and see what would happen next should price return to the extremes.

Trade 2:No follow through, forgot the context.
Price had rallied up to a level that was predefined in preparation and dropped off, we saw a second attempt at that level that failed to go anywhere creating a lower high in the process which I shorted. Unfortunately price failed initially to break the previous low as it was not following through I exited the trade.

Trade 3:Still shorting a rally.
Much the same as trade 2, price spiked a level and then dropped off below retesting the level I opted to short but it failed to do what I expected so the trade was exited.

Opportunities missed:
A: Pre market range was broken to the upside, there was a very brief retrace giving a long around 4288, I hesitated and missed it.
B: This was another retrace, the proximity to a round number (4300) put me off.
C: Messy, price broke the previous highs and retraced, initially I trailed a long, but, as price came under those earlier highs I cancelled and trailed a short to catch a further drop, price took off.

It was around point C that I realised I have effectively blown the day, the hourly was pointing up with the first port of call possibly being the mean at around 4365, I had not taken any longs because of emotion or crystal balling (4300) and had veered off the process a little. I also formed an opinion that price had come so far it cant keep going, hence the short at trade 3.


Summary:
The trades as a stand alone are not bad, but, when the context is applied the only trades that where on was 1 and A. Trade 1 was the PM range top, we are ranging short term (Premarket) so the trade is taken as such, A was a BO retest, though it was quick it was there and this leads us into trend following management.

The retraces on the way up were relatively shallow and made weak attempts at the swing points of the retraces, but, this would be more about an individuals tolerance of pain when price moves against ones profits, applying the context but keeping an eye on the behaviour might allow one to let it run.

Gozilla +2

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  #189 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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Starting off with the preparation leading into the open, will edit post to show EOD breakdown.
For the time being price is back above the daily mean, barely, so it could go either way and the hourly is also near the mean so chop may be on the cards.


With the preparation in place it should have been a reasonably straight forward day, trade the reversals off the extremes or trade the breakouts once price pulled back after the initial breakout, unfortunately it did not seem to work out as straight forward as it should have done, but, that's my own fault.

In the minutes leading up to the open price was at the lower extreme, it had already made one attempt at the lower extreme which failed by 3 ticks and the second failed by 6 creating a higher low which could have been taken as a long, the only issue that I had at the time was the entry location which would have been too close to the MP of the range. This meant that the next option was to wait for price to reach an extreme where we could re-evaluate the options.

It was only a 4 minute wait and price was at the upper extreme, I was watching the right tick and saw what I felt was a little rejection going on so I decided to trail an order a point backt to catch any further drop off form the extreme.

Trade 1: Wrong order type, trade exited.
Sloppy mistake when placing the order meant that I sold at market, trade was exited.

Price was now in the domain of a breakout and should be traded as such, the plan was to buy on a retrace.

Trade 2: No follow through, late entry, poor focus on price behaviour.
We had a retrace that stopped 2 ticks shy of the upper extreme, price rallied triggering the buy order, almost immediately price choked, I often find myself asking a question when observing, Is this behaving as it should? the answer was no, price broke out rallied 6 points then dropped off, it made another push up but failed dropping off to the upper limit where it rallied again (my entry was late) this is not how a breakout should have behaved and as such the behaviour meant I should have passed on trade 2.

Trade 3: Good entry, poor management.
Price returned to the pre-market range and it was just a case of waiting for a retrace, price tagged the upper limit and dropped triggering the short, the trade did test my tolerance a little by pushing past the upper limit. The management leading to my exit was poor, price dropped off towards the mean, as it got close it began to retrace, this is to be expected but, I got out of the trade, it was an emotional response there was no reversal it was just a retrace. What happened next does not justify the action.

At this point I opted to sit out as I did not really want to get too involved trading a breakout again as price had already failed to do anything with the last attempt. Eventually though, price rallied to the hourly mean where it spent most of the afternoon chopping, I had an eye on 4359 but when it did get broken and the retrace held below this level (A) I chose to pass on the short to wait and see how things would work out when it interacted with the PM range.

Suffice to say I shut it down, so missed price re-entering the range retracing to the UL and dropping off, the only noteworthy observations from this drop in hindsight, price cut through the mean with little hassle, price behaved as expected by tagging the opposing extreme and even moving beyond it.

Opportunities missed:
B: With an hour to go until close I only expected chop so shut it down, but, in hindsight price did exactly what I would have expected for returning to the range and moving onwards from the retest.

Summary:
Quite a poor performance, the only positive from a trading perspective was the entry on trade 3 the rest of it was poor flexibility/adaptability to unfolding behaviour and an emotional response.

Gozilla +1

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  #190 (permalink)
 Gozilla 
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It seems a little suspect to post the preparation after the fact but here we are, as everything is done on my own charts that I trade off of I don't feel that I benefit from posting the preparation, that being said, posting it in advance may help keep myself accountable if I deviate from the process and take on trades that have not been identifiable in the prep.

Prep:
With price still hanging around the daily and hourly means it could go either way, zooming in to the 15 minute chart I went with the PM range at the overnight high (ONH 4346) and the PM DB at 4330, there was also the overnight low (ONL) in the mix a couple of points lower but the DB was just as good for me as it showed an inability of price to push lower.

The previous days high (4372.5) to the upside and the weeks MP (4317) where the first points of interest should price break out and go on trend.



Leading into the opening minutes, price had been dropping off from the upper limit (UL) and was halted at the mean where it opened with a quick DB. We had a breakout with a quick retrace (A)that came back into range but, price could not stay in and pushed upwards again, but, I was not paying attention at this time so missed the trade.

Trade 1: Slow entry, questionable exit reasoning.
There seemed to be a lot of hesitation in price as it approached the previous days high (PDH) eventually there was a deeper retrace and the subsequent rally after this created a lower high, entry trailed in and triggered once price dropped off again, this is where the problems start. Price did not do as expected, each drop was followed by deep retracements, price is unable to move down, I managed to hold on when price briefly went negative several minutes after entry, but, after watching price fail to make any progress I decided to close it out.

Trade 2: Good entry, 50/50 exit.
Price dropped back into the range and retested the UL, the drop off triggered the short, the 50/50 part is more to do with the behaviour once in, after the retrace and trade entry price tried for the UL again before dropping lower, but, when it broke lower this was immediately rejected, this was a red flag to me and a possible reason to exit, but, not wanting to over react a decided to wait and see what would happen at the UL. Price breached slightly and dithered it tried to push back in range but this failed and as it looked more like a BO I exited the trade.

I briefly contemplated a long on the failure of trade 2 but I was feeling pretty frustrated so I decided to watch rather than play.


Opportunities missed:
A: Initial BO retest, run of the mill trade missed by inattention.
B: A second retrace in the BO, missed by inattention.
C: A double top, it is a long hold that might test the patience of a trader, but, it eventually gets to the UL of the PM range and in the area of the last drop off from this level.
D: It is a bit iffy with the news but an opportunity is an opportunity.
E: Also a tough trade to take, though price had broken beyond the PDH it could not stick, a short could have been taken as it dropped under the PDH and retraced.

Summary:
Trade 2 is fine no problems there, but, trade 1 is a different story, entry though sluggish is fine, I chewed on the management of this one the whole time I was in. A lack of patience is one issue, possibly unrealistic expectations.

Whilst price was struggling to move down it was also struggling to move up, I could have moved my stop in a little tighter after the swing high to 65.25, but, I think I was more influenced by limiting any potential losses, this fear prevented me from making myself available to what happened next, I accepted the risk when I took the trade on but I eventually caved in and let emotion not facts dictate the exit.

As for the misses at A and B the lights were on but no one's at home, I need to pull my head out the clouds.

Gozilla -8

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  #191 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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  #192 (permalink)
 tturner86 
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Itchymoku View Post

What happen next? And how did you trade it?

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  #193 (permalink)
 jackbravo 
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Itchymoku View Post

I've heard of this indicator. It's the ItchyDinocator....supersecret, only available to a few select chatrooms. Price is oversold at the hand and overbought at the foot, except when it's at the tail, then it's trending. Thanks for sharing!

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  #194 (permalink)
 Itchymoku 
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tturner86 View Post
What happen next? And how did you trade it?

Well It popped over night and I caught it at break-even when I woke up. It would have worked well If I was awake or had some sort of target in mind. I decided to exit before NFP that was occurring that morning. I believe the NFP moved it significantly higher too, but that wasn't in my risk profile.


Here's a smaller time-frame chart of the same trade.


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  #195 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
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Well, two things. One, you're looking at far too much. Two, which is a result of One, is that you're thinking too much. Instead of developing a tactical set for yourself, you're interpreting the nuances of every movement. It isn't necessary to interpret much, if anything, if you have determined your tactics. This involves some work, but not nearly as much as you've done.

I posted the following yesterday. It was a trend day, so a good exercise for determining how to trade one.



Think about where your buystop/sellstop will be. Decide whether you want to make it a stoplimit buy/sell or a market order.

Determine how much MAE to allow and from what point you will begin to measure it as well as how much you're willing to tolerate a break of the DL/SL in case price does so before resuming the move, and how much leeway you're going to allow price to break the line in an ongoing move before you decide to exit the trade. You should also think about how many contracts you're going to trade and what the target for the first will be.

Then just let the SLA do its job.

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  #196 (permalink)
 DbPhoenix 
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One other thing: turn off anything having to do with money, whether gains and losses, wins and losses, percentages of anything, the bid and ask, points earned, etc. All you want to see is the trade. If you're using a chart-trader, opt out of all markings. Just focus on the trade in front of you (which means ignoring all previous trades, including one taken perhaps only a minute or so earlier).

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