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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #171 (permalink)
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New year thoughts.

I am on holiday visiting family so no trading until the middle of next week but this break has given me time to think about the year that has been and what lies ahead. It always seems to fall around new year when certain thoughts occur to me, I would not go as far to say they are aha moments but they are certain realisations regarding my trading that I think bring me closer to reaching my goals, in order to get to where I am now I will cover some of my history.

2000-2012.
Started trading after hearing all the good time stories, initially traded stocks on the asx using technical analysis on higher time frames, eventually got involved in warrants and reduced the time frame from eod to intraday trading. Over this 12 year period I traded multiple instruments, multiple markets using all sorts of time frames, indicators and methods.

And whilst I had some big gains here and there, they were always given back with interest, I blew a few accounts along the way and more often than not it was death by a thousand cuts as opposed to going out with a bang. I had a lot of periods in this time where I did not trade, sometimes as much as 2 years either due to a lack of capital, time or optimism that trading consistently profitable was something that was achievable.

2012-2013
As ever a new year seems to bring about a sense of optimism, as I looked over charts I could see all of these TA patterns that I first learned but had moved on from as I added indicator after indicator thinking this would make me a better trader.

My realisation at this time was that my understanding of the indicators and how they work was poor, this poor understanding led to conflicting signals and confusion which led to inconsistent trading and results. My understanding of technical analysis in terms of pattern recognition and actions was still good despite the time that had passed so I decided to strip off all the indicators and go back to basics, perhaps more importantly stick with the method for a stretch rather than quitting it after a few failures and work towards understanding how it works better.

2013-2014
I was still failing, and I had a good idea why. At this point in time I did not have a cohesive plan or method and it was something that I had resisted for a long time, I was flying by the seat of my pants and taking trades or avoiding trades based on emotion. The method was sound but without rules or an actionable plan I would choke or even take the wrong side as I did not believe the trade was right.

I had entered a spiral of self sabotage, a film springs to mind. Maverick was a good pilot possibly the best in class but he had issues, Iceman was consistently good and was crowned top gun, whilst many would aspire to be the hero in any story and let's face it he came good in the end, I would not mind being a side character when I apply this thought to trading.

My realisation, I need to sit down and have a method and plan in place that is back tested and sets out rules as to entry, management and exit criteria and actions that I will take if predefined conditions are met.

My method tweaked slightly around this time in how I approach looking and thinkng about price so I feel I still struggled the first half of the year (still a little resistance) and since the summer break where I studied it a lot I have been on a go slow but have struggled with my mentality which brings me up to this New Years realisation.

2014-2015
Since the summer break there has been a theme that has come up a lot during my trades, whilst I am confident in my method and analysis, when I do take the trades I take them where I should but I have issues holding and exiting where I should.

My realisation this time, years of poor trading and poor results have left their mark, the habits that have sprung up to protect myself from pain are now at odds with my method and what I am trying to achieve. When I am unsure, have doubts or any kind of negative emotion comes into my mind, I can imagine any number of reasons to get out, my habit, my go to in case of emergencies is to get myself back into the comfort zone by getting flat.

This habit and action kicks in before any exit criteria is met whether the trade is working or not. I feel that in order to advance I need to follow the method better and to do this I need to stay out of the comfort zone as long as I need to to see the trade to its end.

This year will be painful and I will struggle at times but if I can make it to the other side I will be all the better for it.

Happy New Year.
Gozilla.


Last edited by Gozilla; January 8th, 2015 at 04:28 PM.
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  #172 (permalink)
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Update.

Just posting a couple of snapshots to see where we are at this moment in time.

Gozilla.
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  #173 (permalink)
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Back to trading.


First trades of the year and whilst I had a positive end result, some oversights and an old habit prevented it from being better.

My previous post covered the action on the higher time frames of the daily and the 60 minute, I thought about adding a lower time frame but thought it might be just as easily covered in my post trade analysis.

It was pretty hard to miss the 100 point drop in the overnight session, the high and low was marked off and the midpoint of this drop was sitting 4141, I wont take trades just because price is at an extreme or on the mean, it is more a fixed point where I can really see how price is behaving and if any action is needed. The other level of concern is 4080 as price has reacted to it a number of times in recent weeks.

Trade 1:
Going into the open I thought we had the start of a small range with the premarket high at 4160 and the low on the overnight midpoint at 4140. As the bell rang price looked like it was breaking out (entry decision on the 1 minute chart), I prepared to go long on a retrace but as price pulled back below the last swing high I saw this as a rejection of a breakout. As price rallied again I decided to place a short to catch any further rejection if price failed to push higher.

I was a little concerned at the time that I was getting involved right after open and thought that this could just be an opening whipsaw, but as the trade was triggered price followed through on further rejection from the opening high and left me with little reason to be worried as the trade unfolded.

Trade was managed on the 300 tick chart, the pace of the drop slowed a little as it broke below the overnight MP, we then get a small rally which does two thing at the same time, breaks a previous swing high and also breaks back above the overnight MP, I take this as a rejection of a move lower and I decide to close the trade.

I am okay with the exit as a stand alone but my exit was in the first pullback after a break of trend (Blue ascending TL) if I was not short already I would have looked to get short here, the TL was not drawn in at the time as this was an oversight in my prep prior to open. Also as a side note, price failed to make a higher low after nudging past the previous swing high so there was no entry opportunity to go long.

I continued to watch price drop and was waiting for price to hit the overnight low prior to making another trade, Having the price highlight gives me a heads up, I became biased, I was waiting for price to reach a predetermined level where I would wait and see if certain behaviour would exhibit for a long. And because I was waiting for price to reach 4092 I missed the behaviour I was looking for in the rejection of 4100.

Price rallied all the way back to the overnight MP where I waited, price took a couple of stabs at this level, I placed an order to short and get in on any drop from this level.

Trade 2: Old Habits Die Hard.
With the trade being triggered price did not seem to drop with as much gusto as the first trade, unrealistic expectations perhaps. I really struggled in this trade, the drop felt slow and indecisive, I had tunnel vision on the tick and every tick up felt like a rally, eventually I caved in and exited the trade.

I exited without any real reason, my stop was intact and as I had moved it to match the drop it would have been around the same price as the break of a swing high (300 tick chart) so the trade was safe, this was a trade with a good entry but poor exit. And it was a trade taken with the idea in mind of price moving back to the lows after failing to make progress to the upside and whilst I got a part of it I fell well short of the mark on this one.

+74
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Last edited by Gozilla; January 16th, 2015 at 08:49 AM. Reason: Edit chart to highlight first stop out.
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  #174 (permalink)
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Friday 16th January update.

In the interest of continuity I will cover my final day of trading for January before I make any updates.

Going into the open there were a few things that had to be worked out, previous days high (4190) to overnight low (4041) had a MP at 4116, whilst I did not think that price could make it all the way back to the upper extreme of the range the MP was not out with the realm of possibilities, also it is always best to keep an open mind as what will happen during the day is unknown at this time.

The other thing to note is that price at the moment prior to open is at an area of support that becomes resistance, coincidentally this level is halfway between the previously mentioned MP and overnight low.

Trade 1:
Price fails to break higher above this area of resistance and as it drops my short is triggered but price instantly reverses and rallies back to resistance, I think I make a couple of mistakes at this point, my exit is slow so I lose a little more than I should have as I was influenced by the resistance, I still exit below resistance.

The reasoning behind the exit where it was is more to do with the failure of price to follow through on a push lower after rejecting a move higher, with price coming back to resistance as quick as it did it was not doing what I expected it to do with the reasoning I had at the time.

At this point it might have been best to quit, I took a bigger loss than I should have on my first trade which left me with 7 ticks to play with before I hit my daily loss limit, if a trade had come up my stop could have been too tight to manage the trade correctly so at this point my reasoning goes off.

Trade 2: The pressure is on.
Price had rallied into a range (4099-4105) then broke down, I shorted a retrace, and price continued to drop but all I could think about was breaking even or at least making up some of the losses of the first trade, I exited the trade where I did as it ticked back a bit and I got worried I might not leave myself with much room in further trades if they presented themselves.

I spent some time away from the screens at this point as I felt I had been a bit daft in my decision making process.

Trade 3:
Price had rallied for a brief stretch and had come back to the highs leading into trade 2, we had a brief break of trend before a drop lower where I shorted, and again as earlier I panicked as price stuttered after a couple of minutes and I exited the trade for a small gain.

Obviously I am still trading emotionally at this point but I did not feel at the time it was as big an influence as it might have been.

Trade 4:
Price puts in a DT a few points shy of the MP at 4116 breaks the trend and retraces, I short as price drops, but again price fails to follow through so I exit the trade. The only thing I could have done differently with this one is have the stop just beyond the retrace high but given the trades to this point that would have stretched me a bit more than I would have liked.

Overall a pretty poor day when it comes to trading, my main concern was not with the PNL but with my process and how emotions invaded so many aspects of my decision making process.

-13
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  #175 (permalink)
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Update to higher time frames.

Not a whole lot to cover for the last 3 weeks of PA, price is still hanging around the MP of the daily trending channel and has established an area of support around the 4080 area, the highs however seem to be in decline, at least for the time being.

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  #176 (permalink)
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Quiet week so far.

Two trades to cover, one for Tuesday 10th of February and the other for Wednesday, Thursday was a write off as I slept in for market open, I thought I was turned around after coming off night shift but sleep deprivation makes you think all kinds of crazy things.

Tuesday 10th February:
Two hours prior to market open price had broken out above the previous days high at 4232, I was not looking to take on any trades instead choosing to watch until we got closer to the bell. Price retested former resistance now as support and rallied to a lower high then a higher low creating a wedge/hinge, the apex and price to watch would be around 4238.

Trade 1: Poor trade, tired, weak grasp of this price behaviour.
Just prior to the bell price broke to the downside and into support, it failed and returned to the apex where it chopped, I decided to try a long if it broke above this chop, it did, slightly, triggering my long and then dropping like a rock straight down past the apex. Trade exited, I should have waited for a more substantial move away from this level and entered on a pull back.

Notes:
Continued watching price more from a learning point of view and could see a few things going on, price began forming a downward channel, despite all the efforts price could not make much progress through 4232 the final climactic drop did go as low as 28 but this was quickly rejected in a small rally to 4235 and a quick retrace back to support could have been taken as a long signal.
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Wednesday 11th February:
Leading into the open price had been in a range 4272-4279 whilst the upper part was not the overnight high it was the most immediate level that price had found resistance at prior to open. I missed the initial breakout and retest so decided to wait and see.

Trade 1: Did not work out.
Price rallied to 4292.5 before dropping off again, I was looking for either a continuation breaking higher or a retrace then drop, we got a one bar retrace (pink dot) and I was triggered short, price failed to follow through and rallied breaching the last swing high, I went for the exit and got a bad fill exacerbating the loss.

Notes:
After double topping at 4300 price churned in a 10 point range eventually dropping out and falling hard, this drop came to an end at the mean of the overnight range.
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-36
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  #177 (permalink)
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Update.

Have to update my daily chart as PA over the week has wiped out my descending trend line through the daily highs on my daily at the start of the week and now the PA is pointing to new horizons.

With price failing to negotiate through the mean to the other extreme of the uptrend, price might now be going back to the upper extreme for another look, who knows what will happen next.

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Good to see you posting again, missed you buddy.

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  #179 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Good to see you posting again, missed you buddy.

Work, holiday then work again left me with very little time in front of the screens other than a couple of days last month thats been it for trading for 9 weeks, it feels a little alien trying to get back into the routine of trading and posting and I am so far struggling to pick up where I left off but we'll get there I'm sure.

Hope you are feeling better.

Gozilla.

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  #180 (permalink)
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Friday the 13th


Friday the 13th turned out to be a bad day, not just in terms of P&L which was not my main worry but more in how I behaved and traded, a rule was broken before I even took my first trade and I knew I was not myself but persevered anyway which only compounded the problem.

I will get the excuses out of the way first, I had not slept the night before, I convinced myself I was going to be ok but the reality was I was struggling and knew that I should not have been trading live. The second break from the norm was in the management of the trade I took on.

A small range was identified going into the open 4353.5 - 4359 a little too tight for me to want to scalp so I decided to sit back and see what happens at open, at open price pushes a little lower, this is rejected immediately and price eventually pushes higher out of the top of the range by the same extent. Again this move is rejected with price pulling back into the range, price pulls back in this drop roughly to the mean.

At this point I think we might have the beginning of a slightly expanded range, price rallies again breaking higher then retraces back to the previous high.

Trade 1: Poor management.
Price again breaks higher triggering a long, immediately price rejects this move and this is where I start under reacting. The immediate rejection is a warning sign, is this behaving like a breakout should? No. but I was unable to react, price continued dropping and moved past my stop, did I exit here? No. I wanted to see how it would react to what I thought was the range top. When the range top was broken did I exit, again the answer was No, simply put I was too tired to care.

This is not acceptable behaviour for someone who would one day like to make a living from this.

Still learning.
-27
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NOTES:
I was stopped for the day so I was able to watch without the preoccupation of where to take trades or manage them. Price makes its way to the bottom of the range and beyond, it puts in a rally that fails to get to the PM range top and drops sharply to 4348, from here it makes an even sharper rally to the PM range high before dropping again, whilst the drop to 48 is a little more protracted this time the failure to push lower gives us a double bottom.

My thoughts at this time, climactic behaviour that has been stopped at 4348, a second drop that dithers towards the lows making a DB, could this be a level that price cant make its way beyond, could this be a range low? and if that is the case, could the high at 4357 be the opposing extreme?

Price rallied and it was during the rally that I shut it down so the rest is in hindsight.

There is a slight hiccup in the rally to 4357 but price does get there and surpasses it, after reaching 4368 it drops off to a minor level of resistance that becomes support, it gets a little messy around here but price rallies back to highs and then pushes higher, this push fails immediately, we get a couple of small rets before price drops again in a climactic fashion.

Things to think about, Where does this drop stop? premarket low, though it stops there price has gone through it a lot how relevant it is at this point? The second push lower fails making a DB or higher low, climax plus inability of price to continue lower on a second push is bullish.

Price rallies for a bit before coming up to an area where price as been resistance, support and now it is acting as resistance again, price chokes then drops, this drop is halted at the mean of the PM range, again, how relevant is it at this point? price goes on a rally from here and though there are a few testing pull backs it could be held to EOD.

Whether or not I could have done well out of this in real time is a whole other story.


Last edited by Gozilla; February 16th, 2015 at 11:46 AM.
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