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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #161 (permalink)
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Recap, Update.

I have been a little slack when it comes to updating my journal for the last three trading days of last week and as I am limited for time I'll just make a brief recap to cover those days.

Wednesday 22 October.

Trade 1: Leading up to the open I felt price was ranging (red channel) it is a little messy so I decided to wait and see how price would behave at the extremes, initially passed on a short that presented itself a couple of minutes after open as it was on the mean of the channel which might have been in my mind a little riskier when it comes to chop.

Having identified a range, price broke below and retraced, as price dropped off I went short, trade failed to follow through and I exited.

Oversight: I discounted the overnight high at 3983, if I had been paying attention to the mean that was identified at 3969, this breakdown to the downside was just price moving to the bottom of its expanded range so it was not a breakdown at all.

I am okay with the trade as it stands alone but the oversight was poor and having understood that in hindsight I would have been looking for a long in this area.

Trade 2: Long on a double bottom at range lows. Did not work out and I hesitated slightly on the exit.
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Thursday 23 October.

Premarket range going into the open, the breakout was a little sloppy for me so I held off on a long, I then missed a couple of other opportunities to get long.

Trade 1: Break of trend, shorted earlier than I should have, price eventually got going and dropped off, it then made a move up and got to 50% of the drop from the retrace high so I exited to wait and see.

1 Minute chart used for this trade. Poor entry but I am okay with the management on this one.
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Friday 24 October.

Was unable to do any premarket work so I was a little on the hop for the opening minutes. Price had been trending up in the premarket and by this point on the daily I was biased to the upside, 30 minutes after open price had broken trend a little cleaner than the proceeding 10 minutes.

Trade 1: Price had made the break and I watched the pull back, I made an error when I entered the order using the wrong order type this triggered me in instantly, the plan was to catch it on the drop not as it continued to rally, trade exited immediately.

Lack of attention got me into trouble on this one.

Price had been on the climb for 30 minutes or so, I deliberated for a while about taking a long, I identified a break on a 5 minute chart with a retrace, I decided to take the trade on but using the 300 tick for the entry.

Trade 2: By the time I got my order in price had made a second touch of the trend line making a higher low, trade was triggered. Took a little heat on this one but it did not do enough to stop me out, it felt like it took a while to come good and rallied. With the high in mind I watched price perhaps a little to close and as it neared this level it chopped slightly, I over reacted and exited the trade, this was a fear based exit rather than method based.

With the resulting price action it is a close call as to whether or not I would have closed out the trade for a smaller profit but as I do not know what will happen next I cannot react in such a knee jerk fashion every time price comes back a tick or two, ebb and flow.
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My rota is up and I am back to the grind, it has been a while since I have been able to say this but I close this stint at home with a profit, it's by a small margin but its still a positive. Also, whilst I have missed a lot of opportunities and made some mistakes I feel I have done a better job of it this time around compared to other periods throughout the year.

Gozilla. +16
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  #162 (permalink)
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Update.

Update covering the moves over the last 3 weeks.

Back to the top of the trending range, will it continue to push higher? Or will there be a move down from here.

Gozilla.
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  #163 (permalink)
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Look ahead.


As part of a little preparation to get back in the ring I thought I would have a look at things in the time frames that I would typically make my decisions on where and when to take on a trade.

The 1 minute and 300 tick show the same thing. Price has been going sideways in a roughly 35 point multi-day range, this range highlights where I should be taking shorts and longs or waiting for a retest should a breakout occur. Within this range price gets very choppy and trades are best avoided unless they are at the extremes.

The other thing to bear in mind is possible weakness to the upside with the highs failing to make it all the way back to the top of the range, this might be related to the daily (previous post) being at the top of its range and possibly exerting some kind of influence on the lower time frames when it comes to upside movements.

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Gozilla.

NOTES:
60 minute chart updated from post #160 showing the value of trading higher time frames.
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Last edited by Gozilla; November 18th, 2014 at 10:13 AM.
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  #164 (permalink)
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Update.

Not a whole lot to report since my last post but thought I would make an update to track successes and failures.

My first week at home was a write off as my body clock refused to adjust to a more civilised schedule coming off nights and as a result I took on three trades none of which really did anything of note. This state of discombobulation lingered into the second week starting on the 24th November, there was only one trade to note for this week but it was one I have thought about a lot since.

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This brings us up to the start of this week and where I have finally felt a little more average compared the the first two weeks but this does not necessarily mean much as I feel like I have messed up a bit too much for my liking during the week so far.

Monday 1st December.

So much for being focused and attentive, to start with I missed the multi-top 3 minutes after open as a low risk short, then I missed the break down and retest 15 minutes later, at the time of the pull back I was eating and felt nothing much would come of it.

We eventually got a rally which I did nothing about but I decided to see what would happen as price retraced 50% of the drop, it broke lower and once price started to rally I trailed a short, price rallied back to the high where I decided to short it as a DT going into possible resistance.

Trade triggered but price failed to follow through and the stop was hit.

After breaking higher price chopped, I wanted to take a long at this point but as price was approaching the channel I was hesitant to enter as the lower portion including the breakdown retest area might act as resistance meaning little upside to a long so I held off. Price broke black dash and put in a quick retrace, at this point I was biased to the upside and wanted to see price break a previous swing low prior to entering.

Price broke another line and previous swing low and a trade was taken off the subsequent retrace, my exit was poor as price at the time was still in trend and had yet to break any previous swing highs in the drop, the correct exit would have been 20 minutes later and around 20 ticks better. I was nervous and did not like the way price was moving as it seemed indecisive at the time.

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Had planned on putting 3 days trading on one post but it seems a little long winded so I'll chop it up.

Gozilla.


Last edited by Gozilla; December 4th, 2014 at 02:30 PM. Reason: missing chart.
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  #165 (permalink)
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Looks like your first image didn't post. (This is a known futures.io (formerly BMT) issue; sometimes the person who uploaded it can see it, but others can't.)

Can you re-load it?

Thanks.

Bob.

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  #166 (permalink)
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Thanks. That worked.

Bob.

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  #167 (permalink)
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Tuesday & Wednesday.

Tuesday and Wednesday can be combined as Tuesday was a one and done deal.

Tuesday 2nd December.

Premarket was a little hard to make heads or tails out of, I had previous days lows and overnight highs marked out as price was within this area, as for the rest, it seemed really messy.

Trade taken after a quick retrace once price failed to push the overnight high, I was not entirely keen leading into it as I felt price was overly erratic, but I'm trying to push myself on taking trades on as per method. I went into the trade with a clear idea of where my exit would be but I still allowed it to push further than I should have.

I continued to watch for a while but quit as price seemed to continue chopping and I thought it would be safer to sit on my hands.

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Wednesday 3rd December.

Going into the open I thought there was a possible range in play with price making a double top on the previous days highs, whilst I considered a short right after this DT the retrace was midrange and a little dicey for my liking. Price continued to rally and eventually broke the DT, at this point I now considered going long, but, this breakout led into the support from Mondays range, support becomes resistance.

There were three attempts to break higher on this time frame and by the third attempt I wanted to short, but, again there were considerations to consider. Resistance from the DT might act as support and an ascending trend line coming in to play. I felt that the best option, the safest option was to wait for both to be broken prior to taking on a short.

We got the break I was waiting for then the retrace, as the retrace happened I was again pondering the mid range issue, I decided to hell with it just take the trade as method dictates, and then I mess up again.

Trade triggered, I'm tracking my short and trying to figure out my lines, this distracts me for a moment and in that moment price gets slammed. In my mind price teleported 35 ticks lower into possible support and was now bouncing, being wary of this range I over react and exit.

My problem with this exit is twofold, first problem is my exit should have been on any bounce at a possible support if that was the case my exit was slow, secondly, I eyeballed the halfway point of the drop from swing high to low and could see I had about a point to go, having missed the first exit I could have given it room to push a little more and still come out positive but the fear of giving back profit allowed emotion to push the button.

This trade lasted 52 seconds, the correct exit would have been 15 minutes later and at least 30 ticks better off depending on the definition of what a swing high is and when it is breached.

I don't necessarily need to put lines in to track what is happening but I find they can point to things that give me something to think about that I might have otherwise dismissed or been oblivious to.

Second trade was uneventful, considered a long prior to taking this trade but price was too close the the high low mid point so scrubbed that idea, ended up taking a short when price failed to move higher on its second attempt to push beyond this level, price seemed to churn which I did not like as it struck me as hesitant so I exited (non-method) whilst it turned out I was right to do so I cannot say it was the right decision as it was a gut feeling more that anything definitive.

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Gozilla.

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  #168 (permalink)
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Up to date.

Think I may have finally caught up with myself.

Thursday 4th December.

The hour prior to open saw a 25 point move down this gave me a possible range, by open price had clawed back some of this move and was sitting at its midpoint, there was not really anything to do until price approached these extremes so I waited.

Price did eventually move higher but this was quickly rejected, again there was a rally back to this high where I decided I would short as a DT, price dropped off and the trade was triggered, the TL was questionable at the time, I initially planned to exit if there was a reaction to this but I hesitated, I knew at the time I should have exited sooner but I was feeling a little conflicted for some reason. Give it room, give it time.

With each test bringing a higher low I was preparing for a break to the upside, if however I was not biased to the upside one could have taken a short off the third or forth failure to break higher with a stop above this resistance as a possible range play. I considered this but I was biased long and I had been burnt once off this resistance I was not willing to get burnt again until I had more proof.

Price broke lower and the setup pointed to a short, in terms of it being in the range it was a little sloppy but they cant all be perfect, we get a drop off and price tested the descending line but continued moving lower and this is where I make another mistake, I exit for no real reason.

Maybe I am watching the tick too much, I am used to trades being over and done with quite often within 2 minutes, I have been pushing myself to hold the trades I take until there is a reasonable exit, but once a trade moves from seconds into minutes I get twitchy and start over thinking every up and down. I need more exposure on this to get acclimatised to longer holds.

A couple of things to note on the charts, 300 tick and 1 minute covered as some setups are clearer on one and not the other. I had to go out after trade 2 so I missed the rest of it.
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Gozilla.

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  #169 (permalink)
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Probably the last of the year.

Price seems to be chopping now so I am going to end it for the week, this also brings my rota at home to an end and I most likely will not trade until the new year. Only one trade taken today and I felt challenged when it came to the holding aspect but I think I managed it better this time around.

Pre-market price was still within the previous days high and low, it had also tested the midpoint of this range at 4310.75 as a DB. At open there was a brief rally into the overnight highs in the upper part of the range, there was a break of pace and a retrace which was taken as a short.

There were two things ahead on the drop that might interfere with progress, an ascending support line coming from the range lows and the midpoint of the range. The first hurdle was the ascending trend line, as we crept down to this line price seemed to churn and as usual I got twitchy.

Previous touches resulted in swift rejections, though slowing price was still pushing down and eventually it broke and churned on the line before pushing lower, this move lower was into the range midpoint and making a triple bottom. Price began to chop which I kind of expected and after a few moments I decided to exit and wait for the chop to clear and enter once a direction was a little more obvious. After watching price for a bit I decided to call an end to it as I felt it would just chop around.

Coincidentally 28th November high to the 1st December low shares the same midpoint as today's range.

Gozilla.
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  #170 (permalink)
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Notes.


I realised during my stint offshore that I might have missed something, and due to the close to non existent internet that we have out there I only had a vague idea of what was going on and could only confirm my suspicions once I got home. Whilst I was right about my assumptions, taking advantage of this at the time is another question to think about.

A brief run down of my thoughts on this:

October saw a breakdown of the red channel, this move lasts a day or so before price returned to the channel and made a move to the mean and onwards to the upper extreme eventually breaking to the upside towards the end of November.

Seeing as range expansions have been mentioned a number of times in the intraday context I should have considered a daily range expansion, Octobers breakdown from the range was around 340 ticks, I should have been aware of the potential for expansion at this point once price returned to the range.

At the time of the breakdown I was biased towards a long term change in trend, as price moved to highs and broke out I again had time to consider this but I think my bias may have been towards an increased speed of ascent in price, price again ran around 340 ticks beyond the upper extreme before dropping off and giving a short entry on the 8th if swing trading, with targets at the mean and lower extremes.

Though I was not in a position to trade from the 8th onwards I still feel this was a big oversight on my part and whilst I do not consider myself a multiday holder of a position its hard not to notice an opportunity that can offer 800 ticks to first target and double that to the second.

I get too focused on the smaller picture from time to time and need to take a step back to get my bearings more often.

Gozilla.
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