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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.


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Updated July 9th 2015 by Gozilla
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

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  #151 (permalink)
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  #152 (permalink)
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State of the chart.

So two weeks have passed and I'm finally able to see how price has progressed on my charts. Big things always seem to happen when I am away and last week seemed to have some big moves but as ever I was not in a position to spectate at the time let alone trade.

Where I left off last time, Green trend was in play or at least the lower ascending trend line looked as though it would offer support, the possible question was whether or not this could be the start of a sharper incline.

Filling in the gap, Price failed to make any real movement off green and eventually broke down hitting the mean of big red, it then retested the green in a pull back and then price again got bumped between the mean of red and lower part of green before blowing energetically down through the mean to the lower extreme of the channel.

Question now is, Will price make it all the way the the lower extreme? and if it does what will happen next? a move back to the mean? or could this be a trend breaker or at least a slow down?

Gozilla.

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  #153 (permalink)
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One trade, lots of thoughts.


One trade today then called it quits, planned the trade and traded the plan so no slip ups this time around but the trade taken was not necessarily the first opportunity to present itself and I found myself having to think a bit more than usual through the opening minutes today.

As we approached the open price had been ranging for an hour or so, the plan was to trade a retracement of a breakout or breakdown of price from this range. Two minutes after open and price tested the lower part of the range and failed to make a new low, two minutes after this price broke to the upside. It was about this time a became aware of where price was in relation to yesterdays high and low and as price chopped I became bias to the short side, however as I am trying to stick to the method I entered a buy order to trigger if price broke higher viewing this as an obstacle and not an immovable object.

Price broke back into the range, it was a brief and shallow re-entry but this made me a little more bearish so buy order got cancelled. At this point I switched to trailing a sell order looking for a possible lower high or double top, As price made its way back to highs it chopped beyond the earlier high which caused me to rethink my stance, sell order cancelled.

I was starting to think I was being a little unreasonable, I think it is justifiable, price was not behaving as expected but as price dropped off I noticed it had formed an ascending wedge (price showing weakness to the upside) the plan now was to wait for a break of the ascending trendline and get short on a retrace.

TRADE 1: Price breaks the trendline and drops, it makes a slight retrace giving an entry at 3828.5 this is potentially a messy area as it is in the middle of the premarket range so there is a risk of getting chopped up, short triggered, there was no definite target in mind just ideas and as price hit the lower part of the channel it got a bit of a reaction, I held off closing initially but as price broke pace I decided to exit and see how it played out.

I'm positive with the aspects of the trade I did end up taking from the entry, management to exit but my prep work was a little sloppy and as far as the other potential trades are concerned the first longs viability could have gone either way and I was fully aware of what I was looking at on the first potential short but doubted my thinking as it developed.

Gozilla +19

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  #154 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
One trade today then called it quits, planned the trade and traded the plan so no slip ups this time around but the trade taken was not necessarily the first opportunity to present itself and I found myself having to think a bit more than usual through the opening minutes today.

As we approached the open price had been ranging for an hour or so, the plan was to trade a retracement of a breakout or breakdown of price from this range. Two minutes after open and price tested the lower part of the range and failed to make a new low, two minutes after this price broke to the upside. It was about this time a became aware of where price was in relation to yesterdays high and low and as price chopped I became bias to the short side, however as I am trying to stick to the method I entered a buy order to trigger if price broke higher viewing this as an obstacle and not an immovable object.

Price broke back into the range, it was a brief and shallow re-entry but this made me a little more bearish so buy order got cancelled. At this point I switched to trailing a sell order looking for a possible lower high or double top, As price made its way back to highs it chopped beyond the earlier high which caused me to rethink my stance, sell order cancelled.

I was starting to think I was being a little unreasonable, I think it is justifiable, price was not behaving as expected but as price dropped off I noticed it had formed an ascending wedge (price showing weakness to the upside) the plan now was to wait for a break of the ascending trendline and get short on a retrace.

TRADE 1: Price breaks the trendline and drops, it makes a slight retrace giving an entry at 3828.5 this is potentially a messy area as it is in the middle of the premarket range so there is a risk of getting chopped up, short triggered, there was no definite target in mind just ideas and as price hit the lower part of the channel it got a bit of a reaction, I held off closing initially but as price broke pace I decided to exit and see how it played out.

I'm positive with the aspects of the trade I did end up taking from the entry, management to exit but my prep work was a little sloppy and as far as the other potential trades are concerned the first longs viability could have gone either way and I was fully aware of what I was looking at on the first potential short but doubted my thinking as it developed.

Gozilla +19

Looking good, nice to see you are back. Also please feel free to grace the NQ-analysis thread and drops some intel if you like.

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  #155 (permalink)
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What a day.

Another day of exceptional moves has come and gone and whilst I got involved I cant help but feel I missed the best of it, probably because I did miss the best of it but what can you do.

There was a couple of things going into the open to bear in mind, price was making a move on the lower portion of the daily range at around 3770 and beyond this support at around 3740 should the range break. The hour prior to open was very interesting but I will leave this for a notes post.

The open found both the trend and support broken, with all this happening I was unsure of how to proceed, a further move down, a pull back and retest of support or the trend line, A rejection of lows and a move back to the range, with no bias I felt free to take my time and see how things developed.

Did not have to wait long before something caught my eye, opening low to the low 8 minutes after open and a parallel line to the opening high had me set for a range, we had a third touch at the lower edge which was proceeded by a high that failed to reach the upper region (notes post). Price gets to the upper portion and instead of rejecting it quickly, it chops then breaks out, this breakout is the first step towards a trade entry but whilst it breaks out it does not go far and fails to break the opening high, price dithers and retests the upper part of the range and the chop (box) this is where I should have entered long but I dithered waiting for more clarity. After the first breakout pull back price took off and it was just a case of waiting for another pull back so I could get long.

The retrace came again like yesterday in a messy area with a trend line in effect from the premarket but as I don't know what will happen next I take the trade on anyway as it is still a valid setup and I will treat any negative move with extreme prejudice.

Trade 1: Price breaks higher triggering an entry, a line is drawn to track the pace and we wait for a break, I make two mistakes here, I am not thinking of where price is in relation to anything (daily at 3770) this may have triggered a quick close at any sign of trouble. And the second mistake was my poor reaction time to the line break as I wanted to give it a little room to breath then reacted out of fear as the ticks started going back to market.

Entry good. Management poor, should have been more aware of 3770 (HTF lines disappear on LTF charts) Exit poor.

Gozilla +6

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  #156 (permalink)
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Notes.

With a day like we have just had I thought it would be wise see what learnings could be gleaned from the day to provide ideas to take advantage of days like this that will happen again in the future.

Most of the day is done in hindsight as I switch off once my trade for the day is done as I get a little fed up watching setups come and go and not being able to do anything about it, and given what I saw when I got the charts up I could have done an awful lot of trades.

Given all the action I will have to break it up a little to keep a clear picture. Most of the text I'll keep to the charts.

Premarket.



Open and onwards.

After lunch, Using a 1 minute chart as it seems a little cleaner.

I have trouble using the right idea at the right time but this is what I thought when I first saw the chart, putting this into motion when you are watching it in real time is a huge challenge for me.

I will start to increase the number of trades I allow myself as long as I avoid hitting my daily stoploss in order to get more exposure to these situations.

Gozilla.

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  #157 (permalink)
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Daily change.

The red channel looks like a broken range, unless its just a little oversold. I do expect some kind of retrace but whether it can break back in or not is something to be seen.

Two earlier ranges, one trending and the other horizontal are now back in the picture as described in chart.

Gozilla.

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  #158 (permalink)
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One trade today. Plus notes.

After spending much of the summer hoping that there would be some movement I came to the realisation that what I see now is too much movement, some people are never happy. The speed and size of these moves has raised a slight issue that leaves my feeling like I should be cowering under my desk which might be the safest place for me rather than trying to trade.

During the prep there was a few things that caught my eye, price had dropped overnight, going into the open it was in a range 3685-3722, 3740 was the upper extreme of a possible range and therefore might act as resistance. I also could not miss the big head and shoulder pattern that completed, well it failed by 6-8 ticks to reach target but over a 200+ tick move 6-8 ticks is not really a big stress.



Open onwards: Price is on the move and it is up, we break out of the range and I thought about going long on a retrace but this time a decided to sit tight as the neckline and 3740 are right above and there is also a descending trend line from the 9th (time chart) which is closing in and at this time it was sitting in the high 40s.

Price made it to the neckline at 3738 and got turned back as price made a second stab at this level I got set to enter short, in fact it made a second lower high before the trade was finally triggered.

Trade 1: The trade is on and price whips profit to loss back to profit, knowing the volatility we are experiencing I was aware of how fast it could move but these whips made me want to exit immediately. I hesitated as I don't like to count the time in seconds on one hand.... seems a little knee jerkish to me. Seeing the speed of the whip up, the fear got me and I exited. I could have taken a little more heat, the losses were not the problem it was the speed of the movement that got to me, I felt a little out of my depth.

I continued to watch as I felt I still had another barrel to fire but by the end of the opening hour I was just not willing to take on the risk so called it quits, but what an hour none the less.

Combining live trade and notes to one chart to save time.

Gozilla -13

NOTES:
Topping range, carbon copy from last notes post covering previous days movements, price breaks down tests lower range fails initially, breaks back up but fails at the mid point again. This test creates another range that is retested after price recovers from the drop marked by (A).

Tracking price we get a move that pushes well into the pre market range, whilst this initial move breaks though the midpoint the break and first retrace is above, this long would give a trade that could target either the pre market range high, the neckline, 3740 or you could wait for it to tell you when. This trade was <4 minutes and >100 ticks with a ballsy short setup at around 3740.

Parting notes: Damn I need to pick my game up.

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  #159 (permalink)
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No trades today.

It felt like a much quieter day today, still some good opportunities on offer but not as white knuckled compared to the rest of the week. I had a problem with the computer and by the time it was resolved I decided to use the day to go over my thinking process over the week so far, that and I thought when I looked at the chart it might just range around.

Not much to cover in the chart, 2 or 3 trades and done unless you really want to be a scalp machine. This is a little more bearable to trade and not as involved but quite a good day if you can sit through it.

First trade long 14 minutes after open, price breaks the descending red trend line near and ascending trend line then puts in a retrace, this is our signal, the lower trend line (blue) would have been altered slightly to take in this low, price trends up keeping the trend line in sight, might not feel like it live but once it goes I think I could have kept it on a slightly longer leash.

Line is tested at 3808 before resuming direction and eventually reaches 3840, I had to check my daily to see if there was anything here that might have halted price. I'm not sure if it means much but 3830 was tested from above in July and August but either way price breaks trend at 3832. The resulting short does not go far before price pulls back to the break price before falling once again giving us a new descending trend line to track price.

The third touch of this line resulted in a sharp drop that pulled well off the line it made an effort to claw back but failed at the midpoint of the drop which is a sign of weakness and a possible place to short or add to a position, the trend line catches up to price and we get another drop off but this time it fails to push lower an exit could be justified (DB) or like the first trade wait until the line is broken.

A less frantic day with good opportunities, but who knows how I would have managed all this in real time.

Gozilla.

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  #160 (permalink)
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No trades so far this week. NOTES.


Monday and Tuesday have felt very different compared to last week and whilst the moves are still good I have struggled to identify places to enter once the day is under way. Any opportunity I have seen has come within the first few minutes or during the overnight, once you have a clear entry there are not a whole lot of reasons to back out of a trade as it grinds away.

A little context might help make some decisions, or at least my take on what I see.

Starting with the daily chart.



Price dropped out of the red channel and made a move on 3740 which is resistance from march now being tested as support, two days running it made deep moves (50 points) but failed to close beyond, the second day also saw it retest the trend. If price cant go down what options does that leave.

Price makes it back into the range and from then on in it is a question of whether of not it can get back the the mean and onwards to the upper extreme via a break of previous highs. The context of price testing the trending range at one extreme and not finding its way beyond and making a move back to the mean might (I might be way off, assumptions,perceptions etc.) in some way explain the grind we have been on the last few trading days.

A trader who is on the ball, understands what is potentially happening and is happy to swing would be pretty well set just now and if the trade was taken there is still no valid reason to exit yet.



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