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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #141 (permalink)
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Trade.

After months of practising, observing and mostly contemplation I finally felt it was time to look at how I would react once money was in the equation, I decided to limit myself to one trade and see how it went.

To start off with, given the action on Monday it was hard not to approach the day with a bias of some sort. Price had moved off the upper extreme of the daily which it had been hugging for the last 3 weeks, and on the shorter TF price had also broken below the range, with this in mind the path of least resistance seemed down.

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On the shorter time frame the one I would trade from, Monday seemed to offer resistance in the high 20's, this is where I felt I was most likely going to look for a short should the opportunity arise. The low of Monday was also marked off to see how price would react around it, mostly as I felt price had rejected quite hard and maybe there was still some support in the area.

As we ticked down to the bell, price broke the lows, it pulled back as a retest where I contemplated a short but with it being so close to the open I was not all that comfortable with the idea as I felt 4000 may get a reaction I might not like. Price rallied and there were 2 possible long entries, again my bias to shorting in a specific area, the break of the lows and my overall bias short stopped me in my tracks. I Felt like I would waste my trade here.

Eventually price got into the fabled area where I would short, time to see what I would do, we get the pullback and the lower high, price drops off and I get swept into the trade. We're good for a few ticks, price ticks by one lower and then we get a jump. The fact it went a little lower is good but it is not behaving as anticipated, usually at this point alarm bells go off. I had decided I was going in to leave it to the previous swing high @4026 which it equaled but never broke, price started to move in the right direction and went into profit but I was still mindful of the fact it had already failed once in this area to push lower, Price blipped again and came back to BE, I had to make a decision, whilst it did push lower it kept coming back for more, previous attempts got rejected soundly but this was holding on, it was not behaving as I expected, I decided to exit early rather that wait for the last swing high to get taken out.
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Not exactly the result in terms of P&L I was looking for but this was more an analysis of my mindset during a trade and I think in terms of trade management reasoning and my rationale for the exit, I am quite happy. However....passing on the other trades was a negative and being fixated with a specific action at a specific place blinded me to other opportunities, I have no idea whatsoever what price is going to do, price may have failed to reach the area or blown right through it what would I have done then, miss a great trade or take no trades at all, take what the market gives you and nothing more.

NQ -10

Gozilla.

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  #142 (permalink)
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Just one again.

So after yesterdays performance I decided that I would try not to have such a specific idea in mind when it comes to actions at locations.

TRADE: Price had reached yesterdays highs making a new high by a point, it then dropped off breaching a short term uptrend and breaking the last swing low, price then rallied, I started trailing an entry on anticipation of a further move lower. Trade triggered and after a couple of seconds we were in profit.

At this point I linked the lows at 08:35 and 08:42 and had a rough idea that price might be making a down moving range, and it seems I was caught by surprise when price did react, I wanted to exit at the first sign of a bounce but I was also wanting to give it some room. I dithered for a moment then exited the trade, taking a small profit.
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Positive: Took the first identified trade, kept a reasonable level head in the lead up and duration of the trade.

Negative: Entry was 5-6 ticks too late, price hitting the lower range should have been an immediate exit given the upper extreme was beyond my entry, don't know if it will stop once it gets there. Possibly overlooked the lows in the hour leading to open.

The dither was self forced in an attempt to not make a knee jerk reaction, I think an exit at any sign of rejection at an identified area would have been valid given how close the entry was.

NQ +4
Gozilla.

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  #143 (permalink)
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Good way to work your way back into the saddle gradually. Keep up the good work.

P.S. what do you think of the independence vote?

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  #144 (permalink)
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Yes or No.


tturner86 View Post
Good way to work your way back into the saddle gradually. Keep up the good work.

P.S. what do you think of the independence vote?

It's really tough to get good information on it, Each side is obviously heavily biased one way or another, the No's are telling us how everything will cost more, jobs will be lost the NHS, pensions, welfare will all suffer and that staying in the UK gives us a louder voice.

The yes side obviously begs to differ, everything would be better as a smaller nation we can tailor things to our own needs far better than a government that might only see us as a small part of a bigger picture. And of course we have oil, it solves everything and we will be like Norway where the standard of life is better (Norwegians might disagree might not) but I work in the industry (exploration) and it's not as rosy as they make out, and as a trader I am well aware of the fact like most on here that the price of oil is not controlled by Scotland's politicians and the economy is way to heavily weighted by one industry especially in this neck of the woods.

Independence is an exciting prospect and could be great if the right people are in place and prepared to make the tough decisions that will need to be made in those early years. As for me, it has not been a bad life being part of the UK but I do wonder what an independent future holds.

However, I think the outcome will be a no, it might be close but even at a no we stand to gain more power over certain aspects of governance.

Nothing ventured nothing gained.

24 hours time we will know.

Gozilla.


Last edited by Gozilla; September 18th, 2014 at 12:51 AM. Reason: spelling error, no pun intended.
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  #145 (permalink)
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Trade for the 18th.

Thought I would make a quick update so I don't fall behind on recording what has been happening with my trading.

TRADE: Price broke above Previous days high and overnight high, it then retested as support before bouncing again showing weakness by putting in a lower high, I decided to short of this high but as we had not broken lower than the support on the retest I was very apprehensive. Trade entry was triggered, price made a move below support, stopped and rallied. Price was again rejecting a move lower trade was exited.

Negative: Too focused on the setup I think I could have passed on a short at support.

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-10
Gozilla.

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  #146 (permalink)
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Disappointed.

As the title suggests Friday's behaviour left me disappointed, it's no disaster, not a total loss of control just stupid reasoning would sum it up.

The lead up to the trade price had moved in a down trending channel cleanly observing the lower trend line allowing me to draw the upper line, 30 minutes after open, price tagged the upper trend line, the PA after this seemed choppy to me and unclear so I passed on a possible trade, price made a cleaner retrace around 10 minutes later but I was not focused at this point. Price dropped to lower trend line and rallied to upper trend line.

TRADE: Price tagged upper trend line, dropped breaking the trend line and rallied but failed to go higher forming a lower high and triggering my entry, this is where it gets messy and it didn't take long to be out. Price rallies off the bat, up until I took the trade I was bored, really bored. I felt price was churning around and not going to do much in the day and I was looking at another trade in the week that had failed to push lower on entry. My decision initially was to see if the last swing high got taken out @4106.25 I was okay with that, then I changed to exiting on a trend line break, even better. Then I decided to just exit as it had failed to push lower that was a good enough reason, given I am bored and price will churn (in my mind) an exit now is better than waiting for a stop out that will cost more. I had convinced myself I knew what was happening next.

Instantly as I clicked out I realised how bad my reasoning was, I was perfectly at ease with both my wider stops, price ticked up a couple more ticks, so I watched and saw how it failed to reach the trend line or swing high. It seems a little hindsight because I can see that the trade would have worked but I still felt at the time I could have afforded to at least leave it for the line.

What I should have done is explained on the chart.
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I think I was in the wrong mindset leading into the trade, given price after open to the trade I took, I had perhaps made my mind up that it was going to be choppy, and the fact I was bored and not that enthusiastic about what felt like the potential of wasting a day.

Before the day was done I started to build my new computer, I would best describe myself as weak when it comes to hardware/software knowledge so until I figure out how to get the longer time frame charts to work I will feel a little lost, I have transferred 0% of my old one over as I liked the idea of a clean slate, now I'm trying to figure out what I need in terms of chart data or if I can download it from elsewhere.

-7
Gozilla.

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  #147 (permalink)
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No trades today.

Shutting down early today as I am way too tired to focus as I should, but I think it is fair to say that there has been a couple of good opportunities on offer if you have the focus and can pull the trigger.

The first opportunity is not so clear on the 300 tick but more obvious on the 1 minute, and it comes around 40 minutes after open. Price has rallied for 11 minutes it reaches and breaks the trend line that tracks the rally, it then makes a 1 minute attempt to rally but fails putting in a lower high, this is a really quick entry, too quick for me, for some reason I feel safer on a slightly more protracted retracement, so I can think, but I think too much sometimes.

Price drops and if one can stick to their guns when it comes to management the first possible exit comes at around 4058 but this depends on how you define a swing high as price went more sideways but that's up to the individual, the next possible exit would have been at around 4050, price gets a little choppier after this.
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Seeing as the 1 minute chart trade happened too quick to enter, and my focus was mainly on the 300 tick I decided to just stick with the 300 to see if I could get an entry. My lower channel trend line I think was incorrect when it came to making the decision on the second trade but the red line which might be more correct would not have led to a different decision.

Linked
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First trade was a reasonable location but my reflexes let me down, the second trade was a good setup from a purely method approach but once the context of location is added into the equation I am ok with the decision I reached, I cant predict the future.

Tomorrows another day.
Gozilla.

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  #148 (permalink)
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Sloppy mistake.

A mistake when placing an order cost me today's trade, seems to be a recurring theme of mistakes and inattention getting me into trouble.

I was out for the open and returned to see price had been rallying, my plan was to wait and see if there was a break in pace and a possible change in direction. Around 40 minutes after open (300 tick) price broke down from channel, now it was a question of seeing if it would pullback and by how far or if the trend would resume, as price rallied I trailed my sell order in order to catch the drop if it happened.

I made my mistake at this point, with each proceeding bar up I moved my entry below the low of the previous candle usually keeping it back by around 4 ticks, maybe it was my eyesight, an unsteady hand or overeagerness I moved in too close and got triggered in.

Got caught out with price and as it rallied past the bar highs I decided to exit, I was aware of a possible double top but with such a poor entry it would be right on my daily stop in this area. As far as possible targets go price had found support in the 4033-4034 area overnight/pre-market so it could possibly be a range play with exits at the midpoint if price stalls in the area around 4047.
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-11
Gozilla.

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  #149 (permalink)
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Three days, one post should cover it. Notes.

Brief post on trading activity since last update.

Wednesday trade: Overnight and leading to the open price had been making a series of higher highs and lows, picked up on the highs not maintaining the lower trend line pace and anticipated a possible break and down move, the other alternative was for a push over the previous days afternoon session highs and a retest and move higher.

Price briefly broke higher but it retraced back below resistance voiding a long if one was to be taken, price quickly came back to the lower trend line and I was considering a long but price blew though without much deliberation. Now the short alternative was on the cards, price dropped off 10 points in 2 minutes but I was stuck waiting for a retrace which eventually came. Trailed my entry as price rallied and like the previous day got ticked in and price rallied.

In trying not to overreact I may have let this trade go further than I should have against me, and there is a small observation that I failed to see, don't know if it means something but might be worth a note.

Price bottoms out, 1 bar rally, 2 bar drop fails to push lower, next bar new high, push lower breaking the last low (chop), fails to move down further quickly rejecting this area. What does it add too, probably way to micro in terms of time frame but the behaviour could give a hint that it is struggling to head down, so if trade is triggered and entered a hasty exit might be in order if price shows any hesitation to follow through, or maybe I am trying to justify a knee jerk reaction.

Other thing of note, overnight high to low 4042, low to high 4040, Triangle apex from highs 14:37-01:53-03:07 and lows 15:57-02:53-03:50 @ 4043.50 which was tested 20 minutes before open giving a nice trade if you like that sort of thing. And given the PA Monday and Tuesday the low 40's was kind of in the middle of a messy range and the chance of getting chopped up might have been higher.

Overall to cut a long story short, poor trade location. And to top it off missed the test and failure of the break price of which there were 3 attempts at.

Thursday: No trade, Could not figure out how to get in on a continuation, if I miss the start I often forget about it rather than give chase.

Friday: No trades, Range day/chop
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-17
Gozilla

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  #150 (permalink)
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Daily chart update.


I will be out of the loop for 2 weeks coming Monday as my day job beckons, I always find it interesting to see how the lines hold up on my charts and can only really wonder what I would have done during the time that I miss.

As far as the daily goes, The green channel highlighted in the last daily update seems to be in play, I am curious to know how price will react as it get squeezed between a possible faster rising trend and the more established trend in red.

Who knows what will happen next.

Gozilla.
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