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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #131 (permalink)
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Update.

So much for the regular updates, not much to report for the last four trading days, I have found it challenging to identify trades during the day as most of the setups have failed prior to being triggered and those that do don't seem to go anywhere, sounds a little too familiar for my liking.

This post will have a chart of Thursday's action, as for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday there was only five trades all small failures and I don't think there is much to cover in them.

1. Shorting a retracement in the down move but as it breaks lower price starts to hesitate then comes back to entry where I flatten out.

2. Again price breaks a little lower and again it fails to follow through.

At this point I notice the channel and realise that 2 was a bad trade but I have to options, either short at the upper part of the channel on a rejection or go long if price breaks out and retraces.

3. Price breaks out and retraces, my entry is painfully late though and the trade is quickly exited.

4&5. Price comes off a lower high and again fails to go anywhere, I exercise extreme prejudice and exit both trades at the first sign of hesitation.

So four days of nothing much, the first few days of the week were a hard slog to watch as they unfolded then Thursday we get a bit of action and I miss it, oh well, there's always the next day.

Gozilla.
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  #132 (permalink)
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How is it going @Gozilla?

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  #133 (permalink)
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Update.



tturner86 View Post
How is it going

Not much to report I'm afraid maybe five trades in the last three weeks, despite having big ideas on how I was going to proceed, I have found conditions to be challenging and as a result of seeing multiple days of nothing much that I can see happening I tend to throw in the towel early as I often feel when the session comes to a close it seems like I have wasted a day.

I have been off work for 14 weeks due to an injury and I am due back to work tomorrow, but I have found sitting around all day recuperating has sapped my motivation and blown any routine I had to pieces so it feels like I am going to work to get a break. Never thought I would ever say something like that.

Hopefully I will come back with a little motivation and be more consistent and regular with having something to post about but at the same times it feels like the summer doldrums are upon us and I struggled with this last year so I wont want to push it to much.

Take it easy.
Gozilla

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  #134 (permalink)
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How goes it my Scottish friend?

I'd love to come to Aberdeen and have a Belhaven with you one day.

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  #135 (permalink)
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Nae bad, nae bad ava.


tturner86 View Post
How goes it my Scottish friend?

I'd love to come to Aberdeen and have a Belhaven with you one day.

Things are pretty average at the minute, I've not traded once since my last update, and to be honest I don't feel like I have missed much, but saying that in the last week or so the markets have started to look a little more interesting.

Not sure how I feel about the last two months, adapt and learn how to trade the doldrums or knowing the grief it caused me last year sit out and wait/hope for a change for the better, in hindsight I think I should have put some effort in, especially when I have dropped in on journals such as yours and seen how people have adapted and overcome to what has been for me a challenging time.

Keep up the good work and congrats on your recent additions and successes.

Gozilla

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  #136 (permalink)
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Trading Update.

So as I hinted in my last post things seem to have gotten a little more interesting of late, after 2 month break things feel a little rusty so these observations might resemble more of a ramble than clear thinking.

So in order to get an idea of what I am looking at I'll start off on the daily and work down.
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The time frame is not so important it is an 80 minute chart as I could not work the 60 minute to show the move from April very well.
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I will show yesterdays 500 tick prior to today's action as yesterday has a bearing on what is happening now.
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My day was broken up so no sim trades just casual observations.
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As you can never be sure what will happen next I think I would have been very hard pressed to have held from top to bottom and most likely I would have bailed out as it chopped around the mid point of the channel. Practice and patience are in short supply at the minute.

Gozilla.

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Gozilla View Post
So as I hinted in my last post things seem to have gotten a little more interesting of late, after 2 month break things feel a little rusty so these observations might resemble more of a ramble than clear thinking.

So in order to get an idea of what I am looking at I'll start off on the daily and work down.
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The time frame is not so important it is an 80 minute chart as I could not work the 60 minute to show the move from April very well.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I will show yesterdays 500 tick prior to today's action as yesterday has a bearing on what is happening now.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


My day was broken up so no sim trades just casual observations.
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As you can never be sure what will happen next I think I would have been very hard pressed to have held from top to bottom and most likely I would have bailed out as it chopped around the mid point of the channel. Practice and patience are in short supply at the minute.

Gozilla.

Woohoo, someone else I can talk to about the NQ. Market cycle is changing... Get ready.

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  #138 (permalink)
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Charting.

Just posting a few charts to illustrate what I have been thinking when I look over what has been happening over the last 24 hours.

I'll start by covering the last 90 minutes from 7th of August which is where I left off on my last chart with an explanation with what I think and what my actions should have been.

Price fails to make much progress beyond 50% of
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Today was a little messy, Price had tested 3856 as resistance in the hours after close but overnight and into the open it skipped through it a couple of times. Once I see this I start to consider this as a possible chop area that might cause trouble.

About an hour after open price pushes past the halfway point between the overnight high and low but fails again to make much progress, A long could be taken after the second low fails to push lower, I might have struggled with this as 3856 is not far off and might be a cause for concern.

Price moves up from here and then chops in the lower part of the range eventually retesting 3856 and then taking off. My
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At some point over the weekend I am going to cover some of the DAX as it has been very interesting to watch over the last couple of weeks or so.

Gozilla

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  #139 (permalink)
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Weird week.

I have really struggled to put in the screen time this week, a mixture of appointments, fatigue and a lack of motivation caused me to write off the first 3 days of the week and Thursday was mind numbing to say the least and that left me with Friday. The last trading day of my rota at home for the next 3 weeks I felt I would be better off taking notes and observing what I saw and thought at certain points as the day unfolded instead of muddying the water with trying to manage positions at the same time, the charts I will post will be mostly hindsight as I deleted a lot as I went.

To start with, I have been trying to get into a better routine when it comes to trading, or at least getting ready to trade, I am lazy and do not put in the effort required to be as successful as I believe I can be and whilst this trip off is now over I have started to try and organise myself better so I am prepared for the day ahead this includes looking over the charts a little more studiously and marking off anything interesting that may have an effect on future prices, this is just so I am not taken by surprise and can plan ahead, if I see X happen at Y I'll have in idea why and can be prepared to take action.

Someone posted a link the other day in chat that rings true with me and how I have been thinking lately, my mindset is at odds with what I am trying to achieve. TraderFeed: Success Starts With Making Your Bed

And that concludes my philosophical moment, back to the grind.

The daily chart is not no much different to the last daily I posted, but as a brief recap we did get a lower low but price stalled out and then rallied back towards the upper channel extremes and the high from the 24th.

The hourly was looking a little more interesting going into the open as we were only around 10 points off the highs and thoughts at the time were along the line of, would we get a rejection and a sell off or a breakout and rally.
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We got the open and price just did not do much for the first hour, and it was hard to watch and to be honest I felt it was going to do as it did on Thursday and chop around, however I did not switch off go find something else to do I decided to give it some time. I plotted out my lines and waited, what I saw reminded me of this post I re-read a couple of days ago, Last chart noting the highs failing to push off the trendline, result was a change of direction that could be played as per entry rules. https://futures.io/trading-journals/27702-gozilla-s-rough-road-consistency-2.html#post398089. The same pattern more obvious on the 300 tick with a clearer entry on the 1 minute.
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Now that the drop is under way things become increasingly hypothetical, assuming a short was taken how would it be managed, going by the plan I would track price, perhaps to a predetermined area, but more accurately I hope, tracking the lows and highs as price drops, as long as it is in trend keep a hold of the position.
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So the drop has at least for now stopped and our exit is triggered, there were two things on my mind at this point, the short has been exited so perhaps I should be long, and how far is this rally going to go. Seeing as I was using 50% retracements a lot I was watching 3976.25 as a possible target for a long it also ties in with the consolidation area during the drop. The long in question would have been exited early as there is a hiccup in the rally.
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After the double top at the 50% area price once again drops and a possible target would be a double bottom for an exit, price nearly gets there before putting in a little rally that would knock me off the short, price then makes another rapid drop and into a trendline I had prepared earlier on the 60 minute chart, price bounces then drops making a higher low which gives a long signal. It gets a little messy after this with a retest of the double bottom, a little chop and a few rallies to take us back to near open prices by close but I was long gone by this point as I was happy enough with how I thought through the day leading to lunch hours.
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Of course these are just my thoughts and they all sound good on paper, the real test is taking decisive action when and where they are called for.

Gozilla.

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  #140 (permalink)
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Update.


Nearly 4 weeks without charting has left me a little rusty when it comes to making heads or tails of what is going on, Guess it's time to put a little work in and see what I can see.

Charts are going to be updated versions from this post https://futures.io/trading-journals/27702-gozilla-s-rough-road-consistency-4.html#post425381

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The hourly leaves me thinking it would be best to play off the extremes or wait for a breakout or breakdown, given that the daily is at the upper extreme and the hourly is horizontal at the lower extreme I am getting a bias to the short side, I need to nip this bias in the bud and just take it as it comes.

Alternatively price could break higher which might give rise to an increased pace of price.

Who knows what will happen next.

Gozilla.

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