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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #121 (permalink)
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Almost 100%

Well in this latest week ending 2nd May 2014 it was almost a full house. I managed to hit what I budgeted for prior to going live so the week ended prematurely on Thursday. Examination of the wreckage in the next post.

Gozilla
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  #122 (permalink)
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The Big Investigation.

What went wrong, Starting with a stat comparison between the four weeks of live trading versus the two weeks of sim leading to going live.

First image covers start of live trading 7th April to end of week 2nd of May, second image is 24th March to 4th of April.
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First things first, I may have been a little bull headed when it came to cessation of trading when it comes the the multiple losing trades in a row aspect, taking a day off between these bouts may have been advantageous or at least could have taken it as a warning flag that something was not working out.

The most obvious thing that I have been fixated with is my number of trades sim versus live.

SIM - 2 weeks = 62 Trades
LIVE - 4 weeks = 72 Trades

My trade activity dropped off significantly when I was live, was I scared or hesitant when it came to making decisions?

Initially I don't think I was but the rot in hindsight may have come in after my second week, at this point I was 50 trades into being live and it was the first week where I had a loss. Looking over my journal I start to focus on making a clearer definition of the setups I am looking for and where I will take them. This is where my trade count drops off and the results go with them.

Have I inadvertently filtered out the more profitable trades?

I think that it is perfectly legitimate to wait in predefined areas to take trades on but even at the time as I watched there were trades I would pass on as they might represent a short near support or a long at resistance or a setup midrange.

Trading sim and even in my first week live whilst being aware of support and resistance and the possible effect these might have on price I was more willing and ready to take a trade based solely on the setup. Support, Resistance and trendlines are all history, whilst history will often repeat itself times also change. What once was, won't always be.

This might not make much sense, I'm not sure if I get my style, When I first started the journal I would not have considered myself a scalper even though my trades were often short lived I still did not consider this scalping, it was more fear based trading. I think I have to admit that my style lends itself to scalping and that I am likely someone who will take on a lot of trades as the day unfolds as long as I do not hit my daily stop of course.

I may have focused on the wrong aspect altogether and in reality I might just plain suck, perhaps I'm in denial about the whole thing who knows, but I do feel after week two I started to react to results and this tightening up felt justified at the time in trying to cull the trades that seemed less than ideal.

So now I am left in a weird spot. I believe that the source of my problems may be the tightening up and perhaps being overly selective in trade location.

Do I go to sim loosen up and retest the setups?

The tightening up was caused by live psychology that may not be replicated in a sim environment.

Do I budget for a further week, continue live and try to loosen up?

Losses could cause me to tighten up inadvertently or impair my abilities to make clear fast decisions.

I am confident in the setups I look for despite the recent results, its the mush between my ears I have the problem with.

I may have the wrong end of the stick but these are my thoughts at this time.

Gozilla.

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  #123 (permalink)
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What makes you feel better? Small consistent wins or fewer wins that are much larger?

Scalpers have to be right 75%-90% of the time to be profitable, other traders who look for a larger reward can be right as low as 40% and be profitable (Look at @PandaWarrior).

I have seen it posted multiple times, and I am starting to agree that the outliers are what will make you profitable. Those 1-2 (or more) trades a month that you can nail and milk for the most profit.

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  #124 (permalink)
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Experimentation.

Since last post there has not been any solid decisions as to what I am going to do next, but with results in sim I'm leaning towards getting back in the ring. I included a sim trade I took after getting stopped out for the day last week, typical that a trade would work out on paper.

These trades were taken with the focus being on the setups with location being less of a factor in the decision making process. If it is not obvious I was very lazy in the management aspect with a few of the trades, this is more to reaffirm to me that what I was doing before I tightened up works for me and that I shouldn't forget it does.

Of course I have no idea how I would have dealt with these situations live, the live environment has a habit of exposing your weaknesses and teaching you more about yourself as a trader than sim can, if you are willing to listen.

Gozilla.
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  #125 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
What makes you feel better? Small consistent wins or fewer wins that are much larger?

Scalpers have to be right 75%-90% of the time to be profitable, other traders who look for a larger reward can be right as low as 40% and be profitable (Look at @PandaWarrior).

I have seen it posted multiple times, and I am starting to agree that the outliers are what will make you profitable. Those 1-2 (or more) trades a month that you can nail and milk for the most profit.

I think that whilst I don't want to rely on outliers to make my week or month they may in fact be the only thing that makes the difference between an okay month and a great month, but I would still like to be profitable over time on the singles to keep going in the right direction. And a high win rate for me at least, might be too intensive to maintain in the long run.

I think my style might be about firing a lot of shots before I hit my target, couldn't think of a good analogy for it.

Gozilla.

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  #126 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
I think that whilst I don't want to rely on outliers to make my week or month they may in fact be the only thing that makes the difference between an okay month and a great month, but I would still like to be profitable over time on the singles to keep going in the right direction. And a high win rate for me at least, might be too intensive to maintain in the long run.

I think my style might be about firing a lot of shots before I hit my target, couldn't think of a good analogy for it.

Gozilla.

I completely agree, I am kinda the same. My daily target is $100+, my daily risk is $100. Now it is a flat 1:1 which will not be profitable on its own. The + in my profit target is what will make the difference. Some days it will be $100, others $150, but as long as I cross the finish line with my target I am satisfied. After I have my target if I have a trade that I can let run for more then that is perfect, if not I take my target or my loss and move on to the next day.

But even at $100 a day, if I can hit 17 trading days a month then that will be $1700 a month. Odds are I will not hit every single day and I will have some losses, but if I can finish the month with $500-$1000/month then that is perfect. Some months may be better, others may be worse. And I am not worried about that gain or loss, the key is to be consistent and once I find that, increase position size, and increase my runners.

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  #127 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
I think that whilst I don't want to rely on outliers to make my week or month they may in fact be the only thing that makes the difference between an okay month and a great month, but I would still like to be profitable over time on the singles to keep going in the right direction. And a high win rate for me at least, might be too intensive to maintain in the long run.

I think my style might be about firing a lot of shots before I hit my target, couldn't think of a good analogy for it.

Gozilla.

Missed your last sentence, I am different I see myself more as a sniper. Limited number of shots, that I have to put on to a very specific target. Sometimes that will require me to be patient, quiet, and alert. I will have to stalk my trade, survive the wait, and be ready to pull the trigger when it appears.

**edit: I know this thread is about you, not trying to inject myself here. But you seem to be willing to look, listen, and learn so I figured you wouldn't mind other's perspectives.

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  #128 (permalink)
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Machine gun sniper might cover it better.


tturner86 View Post
Missed your last sentence, I am different I see myself more as a sniper. Limited number of shots, that I have to put on to a very specific target. Sometimes that will require me to be patient, quiet, and alert. I will have to stalk my trade, survive the wait, and be ready to pull the trigger when it appears.

**edit: I know this thread is about you, not trying to inject myself here. But you seem to be willing to look, listen, and learn so I figured you wouldn't mind other's perspectives.

Me and my analogies, by all means comment away it's good to get another's perspective on the situation.

It might be better to try and describe my thoughts, which at the best of times are as clear as mud.

My only limitation as far as number of trades a day go is my daily stop loss, I hit it I'm out. Other than that I try to take every setup that is dictated by my method, given that I trade on a fast chart these setups can pop up like a whack a mole.

I am really hard on most trades and quickly exit if it shows hesitation in the early stages. I don't know where the next runner is going to come from but feel I have to take them as they come as the next one might be the one that makes all the difference. But what I do know is that when you get one that goes it tends to bolt straight out the gate and move by enough of a margin that you can relax the management and give it a little space to run.

Clear as mud.

Gozilla.

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  #129 (permalink)
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Saw this an thought you might enjoy the read:

"Good is good enough
Find out who you are and be happy that you can do all that you can do. A baseball player does not have to be a home run hitter to get in the Hall of Fame. If he consistently hits lots of singles, he will get there. You do not have to be the best to be rich, but you have to be happy, consistent, and disciplined to achieve your goal."

Trading Psychology | Brooks Trading Course

Article on Swing vs Scalp: http://brookstradingcourse.com/how-to-trade-manual/trade-management/


Last edited by tturner86; May 8th, 2014 at 01:13 PM.
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  #130 (permalink)
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Update.


After three losing weeks in a row it seemed a little obvious that things were not working out as well as I thought they would, I managed to blow through my allotted budget for the task at hand and was forced to cease trading and examine the wreckage.

I was aware at the time that I was tightening up on trade selection and it seemed perfectly justified to do so as the losses mounted but it was hard to ignore the fact that however justified I was the results got worse, this in turn made me tighten up some more which had a negative affect on the results again.

I may be focused on the wrong aspect or idea but the conclusion I have reached is to take a few steps back and strip off a lot of the rules that got added as the failures worsened, Continue to be aware of things that may affect price but to also judge the setup on its own merit, this aspect has a possibility to introduce inconsistencies in where and when I take trades and will have to be monitored closely.

This is not going to be a quick fix, and whilst my confidence got a little dented the results are not the end of the world by any means and I believe I can get things back on track if I can refocus on the task at hand.

After sim trading the the first two days of the week I decided that the only way I could really test myself was to get back into the live ring. The results are nothing spectacular and some of the trades were exited based on emotion (just happy to be positive) but it felt a little more familiar to take on the trades where and when I did as apposed to turning down a lot of trades as they failed on one or two criteria.

Wednesday, A few daft trades but not too bad.
Thursday, Spent the whole day waiting to short the rally then trying to go long on the drop.
Friday, One trade then had to go out for most of the day.

I have gotten really slack with posting charts, will look to get it back together starting next week.

Gozilla.
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