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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #101 (permalink)
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Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

As the title suggests today was a better day and was positive by enough of a margin to end the week positive, not by a much but I have to take every small victory I can.

Most of the trades were taken off the 1 minute chart but as there were 7 trades in 90 minutes it's harder to follow the action so I am annotating the usual 300 tick.

Took a break after 7 as I was unsure if I should shut it down with a profit for the week or risk ending with a loss to put me in the red.

Points of interest and differences between this chart and the 1 minute.

A. First retrace of the break of the down move just after the open, this was not so clear on the 1 minute chart.
B. Third touch of a trend line an entry here could have been taken on the quick retrace right after this touch.
3. It's a long on the 300 tick where I took this trade from, but a short on the 1 minute as the line is already broken.
C. After the line is broken there is a quick retrace giving an entry short at around 3473.
4. Entry could have been sooner but I may have gotten shaken out.
D. First possible retrace but it's fast and not evident on the 1 minute.

So that is the end of the first week back trading live this year, it's been interesting to say the least hopefully I can continue to build on it but I expect a few more bumps on the road in the weeks ahead.

Gozilla +61

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Last edited by Gozilla; April 11th, 2014 at 05:55 PM.
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  #102 (permalink)
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Thank you sir

Just found your journal Gozilla. Thanks for taking the time to post your trades and your thoughts. I'm now subscribed.

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  #103 (permalink)
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The Ugly.


Well, For all intensive purposes I am stopped out for the day and it is a good lesson on what happens when you ignore the plan and let old habits slip in.

It's going to be a brief recap for the first four trades as there is not much to say with them.

1. Price had made a steep climb prior to open but the pace dropped off before hitting 3472, price dropped off before breaking the slower trend line, it retraced back to this trend line but failed to make a new high. Short triggered but was later than it should have been, there was a drop in price but it got stuck at 3461.25 after four bars failed to break lower I exited the trade.

2. Another retrace back to the break, fails to break previous swing high so triggered a short, this time it fails to go anywhere and begins to rally, trade exited. (previous high intact)

3. Thought that 3461 area was acting as support earlier and this looked like the first retrace back to that area now as resistance. Again price did not seem to follow through and this period so trade was exited.

4. Another late entry on retracement after the down move is broken, exit is a little sloppy but nothing serious.

5. Price being squeezed between ascending and descending trend lines, in hindsight the break above the descending was pretty poor but in real time it sucked me in, break out 1 bar retraced the next bar broke higher in the 3rd bar where my buy stop was triggered.

The part that bothers me the most was I knew it was a less than best trade, that if it came back into the triangle it would probably go out the other side but even though I knew this I still gave it enough room and time to put me out of action for the day.

Notes: I became hesitant to take trades after trade 3 as price was not really following through and this resulted in missing later possibilities and sluggish entries/exits thereafter. If in doubt get out/stay out.

Gozilla -19
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  #104 (permalink)
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Looking at your earlier trade results log and judging by the 'run-up' (duplicated in 'max open profit') you appear to have a dynamite scalping system or way of finding entries - why not use it as such, instead of letting winners turn to losers, or am I missing something?

Also, I think journals benefit their writers more when they say 'I felt this or I did this' rather than faffing with a 'price did this/price did that' discourse. You seem to switch between the two modes, maybe that in itself can help identify what state you are/were in.

Anyway, my prattle is usually about the gunk between the ears, one day I'll get to price.

Travel Well
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  #105 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
Looking at your earlier trade results log and judging by the 'run-up' (duplicated in 'max open profit') you appear to have a dynamite scalping system or way of finding entries - why not use it as such, instead of letting winners turn to losers, or am I missing something?

Also, I think journals benefit their writers more when they say 'I felt this or I did this' rather than faffing with a 'price did this/price did that' discourse. You seem to switch between the two modes, maybe that in itself can help identify what state you are/were in.

Anyway, my prattle is usually about the gunk between the ears, one day I'll get to price.

Usually as soon as I think a trade is not going to work I would exit the trade, but sometimes I over react to what is really only a couple of ticks of adverse action in what would be a decent trade. So what I try to do is if the trade is positive but by only a few ticks I will still allow it to come back to BE or take a small loss in order to give it just a little bit of space as not to get kicked out for nothing.

If it doesn't work straight off the bat I would normally exit rapidly as the order is meant to get swept into the momentum of the unfolding direction.

However I messed up on trade 5, I was perhaps a little frustrated that the trades were not following through and at this point I knew price was a little choppy with all those overlapping bars but I was determined that it would work, I had no profit at any time and whilst the trade lasted 24 seconds I had at least 5-10 seconds to get out with a small loss which I knew I should have done but I was determined that it would work and "hoped" that the small loss I was looking at was as bad as it was going to get.

I often have a good idea of what I should be doing but doing it can be tough at times and yes I do go into two modes at times and end up in conflict. It boils down to a lack of consistency, I need to keep myself in the game long enough to catch the eventual trade that does run and I need to keep the emotion out of the decision making process.

Gozilla

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  #106 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
I often have a good idea of what I should be doing but doing it can be tough at times and yes I do go into two modes at times and end up in conflict. It boils down to a lack of consistency, I need to keep myself in the game long enough to catch the eventual trade that does run and I need to keep the emotion out of the decision making process.

Gozilla

I think you have much more than a good idea of what you're doing and still think if you forgot about hanging on for the 'big runner' your retained profits would be stellar, even if you only kept half the max run-ups. Keep rocking.

Travel Well
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  #107 (permalink)
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The Bad.

Another down day and of a repeat of yesterdays performance, I feel I am more active in the first half hour than I should be and it is a problem I'll have to give some thought to addressing this. Also like yesterday I struggled with really poor trade selection and had a mistake in there for good measure.

In the lead up to open I had the overnight highs and the premarket lows marked off which coincidentally was the midpoint of the overnight range, further to the downside was the overnight lows and the lows from Monday and Friday this was roughly a zone of around 6 points wide. To the upside the double top from the 11th and resistance becomes support becomes resistance at 3536.

In reality price had been in a range since Friday but I was not paying nearly enough attention to this, instead I could only see as far as my nose when it came to trade selection and was trading with very little consideration to the bigger picture, next post will be a notes post to address this.

1&2. Combining the trades as the second was a mistake. Price broke the downtrend line and made a retrace, trade triggered long but quickly failed to follow through I exited the trade but mistakenly reversed the position, I was not sure what had happened for a few seconds as I thought initially I was still long but as price went up I was showing negative ticks then the penny dropped, trade exited.

Besides the mistake, this was a poor trade entry as the entry long was right below what could have been resistance, if anything I should have been prepared for a possible short on rejection of high. Or waited for a breakout retest.

3. Price broke above the overnight high and retraced back to resistance which would now be support, long triggered but exited as price failed when testing the breakout high.

4. This was a long as a retest of the breakout and the third touch of the trendline, trade triggered long but again it was a no go and exited.

5. Again 5 was the nail in the coffin, this whole area is a little messy to be honest and I got my I's crossed and my T's dotted. Price tested the blue line where I shorted I then woke up and saw the pink line (drawn in my head) and realised that this was looking more like a retrace of the break in the down move to go long, I exited when price again failed to follow through, price then broke the green line had a quick retrace then continued on its way down, I was too close to my daily to take on the risk so passed.

I enter when I believe the retrace is over but and starting to go in one direction or another again like yesterday the retraces were not as over as I thought and they caught me out a little. I have gotten very lazy at keeping my eye on the larger time frames or even multiple days to get a good idea of where I am in the bigger picture so the next post will hopefully give me a clue as to why price did what it did where it did it.

Gozilla -23
Originally posted 1000 tick by accident but 300 is a little clearer.
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Last edited by Gozilla; April 15th, 2014 at 11:04 PM. Reason: Wrong chart.
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  #108 (permalink)
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Notes, pay attention Gozilla I'm here to help.

It takes 10 minutes if that to take a little time and zoom out to have a look at the bigger picture, these ten minutes could be worth a fortune all on their own if you use the time wisely and pay attention to what price is telling you. It would also help to have a good idea before the open of where price might do something and have an idea of what to look for when or if it does get there.

SUPPORT. RESISTANCE. RANGES. TRENDS.

Time frames to look for: 1 minute, 60 minute, Daily, 300 tick and a higher tick value to take in a number of weeks 5k+.

Start off with the daily and work down in size.

Price had broken the daily trend channel but after reading other posts it was pointed out that price had moved into another channel which seems pretty clear given price retesting from above a couple of times. Cant help notice where price bounced today, A few posts back I had big plans for what I was going to do at this price but I got lost on the small picture I had no idea how close price was to the support. Trade selection cant see the forest for the trees. Volume has been really high, what could it mean?
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60 minute chart, things are starting to get a little clearer and I was bit sick when I noticed how price moved from the midpoint of the hourly channel to the support on the daily then bounced, if I am not attentive enough I will always miss this, count the points Gozilla, midpoint to support back to midpoint who wants that I'll settle for -23. Preparation, Preparation, Preparation.
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1 minute chart up next, Can only get today's action on it but if the preparation is done its all we really need. Price rallies to the midpoint, anyone familiar with candles might see that top candle as a signal rejecting that price, price drops off puts in a retrace or two giving the opportunity to get short then puts in lower highs lower lows.

There is a blip on the way down where price bounce off 3442 and gets as far as 3462 just breaking the previous swing high, from first retrace to this break point the profit is about 30 points either exit or wait for the 50% retrace, there is a re-entry there once this flag breaks, detailed in previous post.

Price drops to near channel low and bounces, again trader preference on exit. Price moves to and breaks channel but the pace is dropping and price is more sideways, it eventually tags the daily support and bounces, it might be hard to pick up on the first retrace with price still being under the channel but we are right at an extreme and hopefully we have banked quite a few points by now and can at least be a bit more relaxed as price flounders in this area.

Price eventually moves back above channel bottom, its been to one extreme now the path of least resistance is up to the other extreme or at least the mid point. Same management rules on the way up exit if swing lows are broken or be more patient and let it pull back 50% of its move, again trader preference, not sure how I would do it as I was not in the game.
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300 tick, not going to go into to much detail with this, I did not have the mid point marked off on this chart so when it broke to highs I was waiting for it to retest the highs from the 11th it failed on the retest and I briefly wondered what it ran into but I put it down to a possible over run of mentioned double top. The picture should show that price was ranging.
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So what have I learned from all this, pay attention to higher time frames, exercise patience by waiting at the extremes or more significant turning points and be prepared for action when it comes.

Hopefully the missed opportunity will drive this home so I don't miss the next opportunity when it arises.

Prepare. Plan. Execute.

Gozilla + Still learning.


Last edited by Gozilla; April 16th, 2014 at 06:22 PM.
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  #109 (permalink)
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Started good, got bad, then ugly.

After two trades I should have taken a time out to assess the situation and exercise more caution going forward, instead the blinkers went on and a tried as I often do to scrape a trade out of everything I could.

On the run up to open where was price, overall price was in the upper half of the 60 minute channel but it was only around 12 points above the mid point of this channel so it was a possibility that price could get there and test it. There was an overnight high at around 3513 a pre-open low at 3502 and another possible area of support on offer from yesterday's closing 30 minutes at 3484, price broke this right after close and it had not been retested.

Price opens tries to go higher but is kept from the overnight highs, it breaks pre-open lows and then comes back into range this does not last long and prices breaks down again, there is a brief retrace here but I have decided to wait for price to get to the mid point before I make any decisions, 3 minutes later and it's time for a decision.

I know I mention staying away from the midpoint but with price reacting as it has recently I felt that there was an opportunity that had to be taken as there is always the chance that given the possible range in play price could move to the upper extreme of the hourly chart.

Think I confused myself with the chart timings and a lack of consistent markings, most trades taken off 300 tick unless otherwise stated.

1. (1 minute chart) Midpoint broken, price fails to push much further past getting close to noted support and it pulls back up, once it starts dropping again I set my order at the high of the dropping candle but if price broke lower I would cancel the order. Price came back up and triggered the trade, it ran for 2 minutes before hitting the pre-open low I gave it a little time but as price faltered I exited.

2. Noticed a triangle formation develop so sat back an waited for it to break, price broke to the upside, as per usual waited for a pullback for an entry which happened at the pre-open low, trade triggered as price broke higher, trade exited as it waffled again.

3. The Ugly, Price had failed to continue upwards and dropped through the triangle apex and the midpoint, There was a short lived pullback to the earlier support now resistance where price stalled I took this as a signal to go short, entry was on price breaking lower but trade triggered and price stopped dead in its tracks and reversed, trade exited.

I got a little tilted on this trade, I tried to flatten out but for some reason my market order popped up on chart and did not get filled, I thought I had set up a limit order of some sort and was trying to figure out what I had done. All this happened in 3 or 4 seconds but I ended up with around 5 ticks of slippage.

4. (1 minute) Price retested the midpoint and I shorted the failure to pass, exited when price failed to follow through. This one was stupid, price was now above the support on the 300 and this down move was more like a retrace after breaking the downwards trend line.

5. Shorted again same as above but on a later retrace, price pushed a little lower before climbing again.

6. Starting to rattle off a lot of trades again as I started to find myself getting frustrated, shorted off a lower high at the triangle apex price. Trade exited as it failed.

7. The Bad, the very bad. Price broke out from overnight highs but it did not do it with any real flare so I held off on going long on the retest, it sauntered back above this price again and seemed to just hang around with no sense of urgency, I was really suspicious at this point but there was a brief spike higher then a retest of those highs, I decided to enter if price broke higher, ooops. The bad and the ugly of it is that I went into complete denial and struggled to exit taking a bigger loss than I should have.

8. Up trending line is broken and we get a retrace but again I am suspicious, by waiting for the breakout lows to get broken the entry is late and price fails to follow through.

What happened is what I thought would happen and in reasoning with myself at the time I concluded that the trade had to be taken as if it did not happen I would be kicking myself for a missed trade. I had to rage quit after this trade.

I have become very suspicious of a lot of the trades to the extent I am starting to doubt the plan, I am also struggling to accept when I am wrong and so far this week I have had more trades go badly against me because of this inability to face facts, I seem to forget that I can renter later if the conditions allow me to do so.

What a difference live can make to psychology.

I want to maintain complete responsibility for all my trading decisions, that's why my exits are all manual but I have struggled to be efficient when it comes to culling the trades thay are not working. As my trade entries are based on momentum I have to consider entering all trades with a tight auto stop to cut out the middle man i.e me in the initial moments of a trade.

Gozilla -4
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  #110 (permalink)
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It hurts a little.


That's another day over and another loser to end the week, Its not all bad hopefully I have learned a few things by now that I can chew on over the weekend. And yes my psychology has been very different at times during the week which has without a doubt had an affect on my decision making process.

As a result of some of the losers getting bigger than they should I decided to set things up so a stop order would be placed close to entry as soon as the entry is triggered.

1. Price failed to break above the the swing high 10 minutes earlier. 3 bars tried and 3 bars failed I entered short as price broke lower, trade seemed good for a few seconds but price started getting fidgety so trade was exited,

2. Price broke the opening high retested and bounced again, at this point the upper trend lines were not a factor, as price retested it again a long was triggered but price failed to follow through and the stop was hit.

3. This is me getting to focused on the small picture again, took a long off what I thought could have been a DB which was no where near a bottom, more like a mid bottom, result not unexpected, stopped out.

4. Earlier range came into play, the entry was wrong though as it scraped into the highs I went to place a stop order but mistakenly entered a buy limit which filled straight away, I should have exited immediately but the reason for trade stood as I wanted to go long off here anyway (Poor reasoning in hindsight). Trade bounced but not very far so was exited.

5. With a failure of price to push off the range and hitting SBR from trade 3 a short was opened, Price followed through briefly but hit and reacted to the trend line as it did this I exited the trade.

With price failing to make it too deep into the range and coming back above the trend line I considered a long but I stayed on the sidelines not wanting to put in so many trades in a short period of time.

6. Shorted off resistance rejection on both time frames but it failed to live up to expectation so trade was exited.

7. Too fixated with the resistance at 3530 to really look at what I was dealing with, shorted after the second attempt to push higher made a lower high, price rallies and the trade is stopped out. I had time to exit prior to the stop being hit but I was lazy and let it happen, this is not good enough I put the stops in place to act if I fail to it does not mean that I have sit by and let them get hit when I know it's not working out.

On the 300 price has broken the linked lower highs and put in a retrace, it's likely to go up. On the 1 minute price retested resistance as support, if anything the entry should have been long but there is still resistance at 3530 which might turn price around, I think it would have been best to sit on the hands for this one.

Gozilla -2
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