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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.
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Gozilla's Rough road to consistency.

  #91 (permalink)
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Study notes 300 tick.

I want to go over yesterdays action with a fine tooth comb to highlight things I missed, not just the things I did not pick up on as I watched but also cover what happened when I was out. I'm going to track it on a 300 tick chart and try to pick up on all the possible entries and exits good and bad and be as honest as I can be with how I think I might, or better yet should have traded, this is all in hindsight so who knows how each situation would have played out in real time

Chart has been chopped up to make the picture a little clearer.

First chart. There is often hesitation trading with news or at the open but a signal is a signal, with price rejecting the midpoint of the previous range there is a rapid drop and a very brief flag or pullback, this is not yet at an extreme so this can be left, at this point we don't know if price is going to stick with the old range or not and with possible support not that far away patience can be exercised for a better opportunity.

Price breaks support and flags again, it's doing this at what is now resistance, 36 seconds to make the decision, 35 seconds more than you need, if you have a plan and are confident in it you know what you are looking for and what you are going to do about it, short on a break of the lows with a stop above the flag high or above resistance, As for management use the lines as a stop or exit once price fails to push lower. Line would exit trade for about 16 ticks exiting on break of high would have meant giving back all that profit which might have been painful to watch but during this larger flag it just makes it to the range of this earlier mini pullback and gets dropped. This larger flag might possibly give off two false entries depending on how aggressive one is.

There are a number of flags on the way down all of which fail to break the previous swing high offering chances to get in or even add before price breaks the faster line started from the larger flag, price also broke the last swing high at about the same time, price rallies and reacts to the slower line and creates a new low before rallying again breaking the slower line, from here it's a case of waiting for a retrace.

With previous swing high being broken price flags and we have an entry, this is short lived as price briefly rallies then gets dropped through the last swing low, it does recover but for me at least I would have waited for another flag proceeding a new high which comes along a few minutes later or gotten chewed and waited for something a little clearer.

Eventually we rally to the larger flag mentioned near the start and price fails to make any further progress, it swiftly rejects this area and starts to flag on the trend line. It is a possibility to enter short once this flag low is broken as this would be outside the trend line but I decided to wait for price to move away before taking a trade on via a flag, as this was a trade it is discussed in an earlier post.

As highlighted in the chart my entries have been very aggressive and this is behind a lot of my short lived failures over the last 2 weeks but when they work out there are more ticks to bank. As an afterthought a lot of them do work out I just freak out when they don't work straight away.

This is really long winded and the chart is going to get broken up over a couple of posts.

Gozilla
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Last edited by Gozilla; April 5th, 2014 at 03:09 PM. Reason: Added a couple trades to the chart
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  #92 (permalink)
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Study notes 300 tick, the middle.

This middle point starts where we left off from the last chart review.

Price had been falling up to this point and was tracked by a trend line, it broke this line but moved lower. It rallied off this new low then flagged, this is an iffy spot as the proceeding swing high might be a problem, either you can take the trade off the flag, buy stop the breakout or wait for a retrace. Price rallies 20 points from low breaks the trend line then breaks the last swing low trade would be exited around here.

There as a sharp drop away from the trend line which is followed by a retrace which fails to make a fresh high this is the entry point of the next trade. Track with line manage through stops at the swing high. The area highlighted might be very difficult to watch, those spikes are 8 points and last around a minute, it would be hard not to exit seeing those oscillations in the trade and 8 points on its own is a good trade BUT at no point do the oscillations break the previous swing high so the trade is safe.

Not sure how much credit to give it but there is a little wedge/triangle/coil formed in the area of the spikes, when price breaks down you would wait for a retrace to the break price or apex as a potential entry.

From here we keep an eye on the highs and price moves to 3580 which is the top of the range from the start of the week and also support from a retest once price broke this range, It's now noticeable that price has moved along way from the trend line so a parallel line can be marked in to track the lower half of what now looks like a trending channel.

Price moves more to the mean of the channel still making lower highs as it goes, soon it tests the lower trend line and a decision has to be made, exit at the bottom of the range, exit if the latest swing high is breached or exit if the range gets broken. Without a crystal ball it's uncertain if price will rally, go sideways or drop at a slower rate, trader preference on this, I'd lean toward an exit at lows but that's based on not wanting to give too much back if price does rally out of trend.

Price retests former support as resistance then continues dropping eventually reaching the channel bottom, again same decision as last time. Price makes it to upper channel and starts dropping, it fails to reach the lower part of the channel and then after a couple of lower highs takes out the previous highs.

Trades marked in channel are kept to the extremes but there is always a chance to add anytime price retraces and fails to take the previous high. Also there are no longs in the downtrend as it is uncertain how price will move after hitting lower portion of channel, they could be taken but the bias at this point is down.

Gozilla
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  #93 (permalink)
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Study notes 300 tick, into the close.


Last chart to cover the day and the opportunities are still there but it gets a little harder now.

Price by this point has made its way to the top of the channel, exits the channel breaking the last swing high and flagged, if price moves higher an entry will be triggered if it drops there could be a short available for a return to the channel. Its a little early to say if we are going to have a rally from here but the opportunities are taken when they present themselves.

Trade triggered long and tracked with line. It doesn't get to far before running into trouble, either exit with the line or when the swing low is broken, now price ranges finding resistance at around 3558.50 and support around 3553.25 which also happens to be the top of the range of the flag, maybe another coincidence.

Price bounces around this range for 22 minutes before dropping out, it makes a quick retest where an entry short could be opened. price flags again and drops slightly creating a small swing high which is quickly broken, it is a blip but the rule stands to exit. There is sharp drop followed by a rally followed by another sharp drop, Price now starts pumping in higher highs and higher lows.

The peak of this rally tags the topping range and drops, there are a couple of lower highs and lower lows. It is still not such a great picture when it comes to identifying trades, price now begins to range for a stretch breaks lower then re-enters range on a retrace then tests the top, it drops off the high slightly before retracing a little giving a possible entry short. Price breaks down then retests the range as resistance, there is a possible false exit in there.

Now the upper trend line can be adjusted to take in the latest high and a parallel line to take in the low, this lower line is not confirmed until it is retested. Track drop with line as marked and exit on break of high or line. There is a quick retrace to enter long but this gets chopped at the mid-point.

Price reached the upper trend line but no trade is triggered as each retrace ends up pushing higher, it drops back to the trend line, and we now identify a H&S formation (for old time's sake) it retests the neckline drops from here before a small rally forming a lower high so no exit then price moves to H&S target.

And that's the end of the that, Over 150 points between all these trades if entered and managed correctly and I managed to get 6 and a 1/2, still happy though gives me food for thought on the things I need to do to get a bigger slice of the pie.

Gozilla
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Last edited by Gozilla; April 5th, 2014 at 10:59 PM.
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  #94 (permalink)
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1000 tick v 300 tick

With the amount of volume seen on Friday it made for a lot of opportunities which may have led to over trading. A fast chart will give off a lot of trades and at times seem almost frantic so there are times when things need to be slowed down a little.

As it is slower a slight adjustment might need to be made (maybe) when it comes to exit as there can be a lot of difference when price moves in a direction and then comes back to a possible exit at a swing high or low. Either use the lines or pay more attention to the bars to see if they moved much into the proceeding bar.

Sometimes use a 1000 tick or 1 minute when I am failing to make heads or tails of what I am looking at, if it is really tough I'll step away and look again later.

Gozilla
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  #95 (permalink)
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Stats appeal.

Attached stats are to cover all trading activity for the last 2 weeks.

Whilst I am happy with the results and identified some areas I think need some attention I can't help wondering if my trading over this duration is a realistic reflection on what I will really do if I was to trade live, with real money on the line in the past I have withered under the pressure and allowed myself to be ruled be emotions.

To this end I feel that I am going to have to do a stress test to see how I hold up. It may be a little early, and I would have liked to have spent more time developing more of a habit with my method but I need to see if what I am doing now is what I will do under the spotlight.

Going live, trades permitting 7th April 2014.

Gozilla

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  #96 (permalink)
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It's a start.

So today was the day to start trading live and I wish I could say it was a success but it was not, but it's okay these things happen.

I think I was reasonably centered leading into the trades and during them even though they were short and sweet, the trades taken just did not work out but that's why there are stops in place. If I had to say anything in terms of there being a difference between live and sim I would say I was a little more picky about my trade selection and that might have caused me to mess up my second entry.

I had thoughts about my stats and it occurred to me that my record came about as a result of being more trigger happy and managing the trades in particular the losers well, I'll bear this in mind going forward but will continue to work on trade selection.

Being unsure about the direction we are going to have going into the open I marked off some highs and lows and waited to see how price was going to react to these levels.

1. Price had reacted to the lower support level and began making its way to the top of what could have been a range, price reacted to the high at 3518.75 as it did so I entered short on a reversal. Price failed to move lower and instead broke out breaking the previous high and stopping the trade out.

Easy to convince myself at this point that with it being so close to open I should have waited for things to settle down but if the opportunity is there I have to take it.

2. Price had rallied for 30 minutes and broke the trend line. Now it's a question of waiting for the retrace to trigger an entry. The retrace took place and also tested the break price but I was very slow on getting in and ended up entering 5 points later than I should have. Price made a small rally and the stop was hit again.

Hesitation may have been a result of trepidation, I am going to have to get used to being live quick. There was about 1 minute from the trade being triggered to my entry, that's not good enough and will require some work to get over it.

There is one trade in there that I missed that I was disappointed with myself for missing as I think I was biased short at the time. Price broke the lows, I waited for it to retest as resistance, it broke back above support/resistance breaking the line in the process, it then retraces and tests as support. Price fails to break lower and an entry would be triggered at around 3507.50, price rallies breaks the retrace high and continues up.

Price gets tracked with lines which get increasingly steeper to keep up with the pace. Now a decision has to be made, Exit when the green line is broken, price drops but fails to break a mini retrace from the rally, price rallies off the slower pink line (entry low+retrace low) but the resulting high struggles to pass the previous high meaning a possible exit on line break. Again price fails to break the previous low and rallies again but again does not really get far beyond the previous high, now the exit is either if the low gets broken or the line (from low to entry low). It all comes down to traders preference.

This is hindsight and not important now, tomorrow is a new day with new opportunities.

Gozilla -25
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  #97 (permalink)
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Another day another Uh-oh.

As the title suggest things did not go as well as hoped and I definitely noticed a physiological difference as the trading day unfolded, which to be honest is not a huge surprise but the way in which I was affected had me thinking.

To start off with, in preparation of the open yesterdays highs and lows were marked off along with the overnight highs and lows and I threw in yesterdays afternoon session high as well as price had retreated strongly from this peak.

Going into the open price was still in the overnight range but in the hour leading to open was sticking in the upper half of this range.

At open price broke the top of the range and headed for yesterday's pm high @3520.75, price stopped 2 ticks shy of this price and I looked for a reversal trade.

1. Short triggered as price dropped off highs, it was a very short lived trade that moved briefly in the right direction but as soon as it starting coming back I exited.

I don't expect it all my way and after watching half the profit going in a blink I may have over reacted, but I am always a little harsher on my trades at the open as I often expect some kind of violent oscillation to mess up the trade.

2. The rally fails to break higher, rather then thinking this is a possible continuation I consider this to be a retrace of the first failure and decide to short as price drops off, not a whole lot of headway is made and as price moves against me. I exit, at the worst possible time and price missing the subsequent drop.

Now there are two things in this trade that I noticed affecting me in my decisions.

# Sim me would most likely have re-entered, my exit is on a lower high and my re-entry should/would have been on the previous swing low being broken.

# As I exited the trade I thought, "I need to give them a little more room and should have waited for the high to be taken out". My sim success was based on treating trades at entry with extreme prejudice with re-entry if necessary. If it looks like it's going to rip my face off don't give it the chance.

This last point hurt me in a later trade.

Price dropped to overnight lows where it found support and bounced, there was an entry in there but I did not take it as I hesitated. Price rallied but chopped up around the middle of the range and as I am waiting for the extremes to be tested I wait.

Price reaches the bottom of the range and things get a little messy.

3. There is a slight break of the lows at this point I am waiting for a a possible long with a retrace back into the range and for the range low to act as support, but the retrace breaks below support again and makes a brief test from below I take this as a failure of the long and go short at the exact wrong price and time, We get a rally and get stopped out.

My decision making got mangled during this trade and there are some considerations to take into account.

If this was a breakout it hardly acted like a breakout, I should have watched for a more explosive or concerted effort to move away from this area, it stuck it's toe in the water but that's as far as it went. The long option was still in play but I was too fixated on an exact price representing whether we were at support or resistance. As soon as it failed to push lower I knew I was wrong but allowed myself to be affected by the previous trade by giving it enough room to break the last swing high, this resulted in an outlier loser.

Price even retraced just after these lows giving a second chance to get on board but I was shadow boxing at this point so missed it.

4. Now I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel. Price had broken to highs and eventually broke the trend channel creating a lower low and lower high where I shorted, the trade goes a little positive but starts to tick back where I exit for a small loss.

I shut it down after this as another trade might put me past my daily stop.

I'm identifying the trades just not the correct actions, I think there are some good lessons for myself to learn out of all this, it's just a question whether or not I take heed.

Gozilla -19
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  #98 (permalink)
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Bland day.

This morning saw price meandering sideways and not really in a wide enough range to entice me into getting involved for the most part.

Price opened into a tight range and whilst I considered taking trades off the extreme decided it would be wiser to sit out as the range was too narrow to play. Eventually price broke lower but found support at yesterday's high which for the time being was now the lower extreme of the range and making Monday's high the midpoint in this range.

With the range being still as tight as it was I felt the only option moving forward was too wait for an extreme to be broken as any entry trading the range might struggle at the midpoint.

1. Price breaks out of the top of the range then drops breaking the trendline it retraces back towards the high but stops a couple of ticks shy. A short triggered but I'm very wary that this is a quick trade if it fails to break back into the range, as it hits the top of the range it falters I give it a little time but it just doesn't push through so the trade is exited.

I did plan on exiting at anything that looked like rejection but worst case scenario with trade in profit I would have been out for a small profit or BE, just had to see if it was going to re-enter or not.

Was not so keen on the long so sat out again waiting for something to happen. After a couple of hours price broke above previous highs and flagged.

2. Triggered when the high of the flag was broken, price continued moving up but soon ground to a halt, after a couple of attempts to push higher it failed breaking the line in the process and shutting the trade down.

3. Went for a short on this failure but price went up causing the trade to be exited.

After this trade I convinced myself that the market was in chop mode and that it would be safer to wait for another day.

Overall a lot happier today, nothing spectacular but no disasters either and traded a little closer to how I like.

Gozilla +2
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  #99 (permalink)
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Nuts!

A little bit frustrated with my mentality today, not really bothered with P&L which makes a change but more with the fact that despite the market going lower and lower, I have spent the whole time trying to catch falling knives and shying away from all the shorts I should have taken. Bias is a..... problem.

I was up into the early hours thinking about the week so far and how my behavior seems different live from the proceeding few weeks where I was trading through sim. Initially I think I was a little restrained as I am now, but I stuck it out in order to get used to the strategy and build a habit where I evaluate and take trades according to the method as and when they present themselves.

The results helped to build confidence which in turn reinforced my belief in the method which made me more decisive thus removing some of the fear issue leading to better management of the trades as I could be more relaxed and rational, I like this circle.

I have to pause however and wonder if 5-6 months of observation and a few weeks of practice is enough, given my previous experiences it has not been a large shift in method.

Have I gotten cocky, maybe, having good results can do that it has happened in the past but the difference I think for me at least is that the trades taken are a lot more defined, I'm not flying so much by the seat of my pants as I used to, I took time to explore the setups, the lead up, the execution and the management and whilst I still struggle at times I think there has been a vast improvement in this area.

With all these thoughts it seems to boil down to the difference between real money and sim money as there is something real on the line, so for the time being I am looking at this week as a lesson, there are growing pains but without testing them I cant find them and this is where it can be beneficial to take notes when trading live.

So to make a start. Overnight highs and lows marked off and also keeping in mind there is a 2 day trend in play where price is chopping around going into the open. I'm going do a trade breakdown on chart as there a quite a few trades today. Took a break after trade 7 hence the gap.
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So despite it being a down day I was biased long and I think it came about as I had areas of possible support on the chart and most of time I was thinking when it gets here I'll make a decision to go long if it gives me a chance. I need to get past thinking of support and resistance as a definite area where something will happen and be more open minded and think that something might happen and to be prepared for it, but in the meantime what is price doing now and is there something I can do to give myself an advantage.

Gozilla +5
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I just realized you were from Scotland. I love it, my family is Irish/Scottish.

I know the feeling, trend days seem like they should be the easiest but they can be some of the hardest days to trade. I started the day with a bull bias, on the daily we had bounced off a bear channel line, we had good jobs news. Everything looked up. But after the first candle that was broken.

I equate breakout and trend trading to cliff diving, once you are convinced of the direction you have to fling yourself off the cliff with full force. If you don't you might not make the water beneath. And it can be the hardest thing to do watching price continuing without you. The key is to accept that and look for the next entry point, a pullback, breakout, or continuation. And then when you get it, take the trade and hold it. If you are correct about the trend, then price should not come back to your entry.

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