Just a follow up. The stats shown don't really represent the 'true stats' for example the winners are getting skewed by 1 tick winners which I consider as flat trades. It was a momentum trading strategy based with something else added to it but objective was to trade each and every day. Given CL volatility the strategy worked really great. Wonder if it would work the same once things settle down? Given current conditions even 6 months should be enough to have a good cushion to sit through lean times.
The one losing day happened right after 2 big winning days. Up till then and since Then I traded mostly 1-2 lots and that day it was my first trade of the day and a really great setup and I got stopped to the tick on a 3 lot. I had thought of expanding the stop by a few tick since everything was lined up perfectly but I didn't and it fell 200 ticks from there. Given the volatility I didn't want to expand the stop since I already had the combine in the bag lest some slippage or something weird happened. After that I took a couple more trades but my heart wasn't really into it as I kept looking at what I could have done with the earlier trade. The reason I am sharing this is that I think more can be learnt from that day than the winning days. To me these are the days when u take baby steps toward maturing as traders
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I was asked to do LTP since 90% winning days and 10k profit vs a 3k profit objective isnt enough for TST. I started LTP yesterday and today I hit the $1500 target for LTP also but you have to trade minimum 10 days so I am just going to finish the 10 days with 8 more days to go.
I kept my stats for combines done in 2013 and I find that now I have matured especially well. I don't know how much TST pays attention to their trading rooms but called the CL bottom as it happened today before the 180 tick rally, my target was only 50 ticks and before that I was riding shorts down. The parameters I still find are very tight for CL trading and one wrong step as happened to me back in 2013 really puts you in a big hole where as if you start right then you have some (not much) room for errors.
Today I was short from 4841 with target being at least the weak lows at 4773 being taken out and 4765 as target and some unauctioned areas below from the overnight lows made earlier in week target 4723. Took it with only 1 lot and it churned around all day and based on stats there was a 70-76% possibility of target being hit but I got out at 4828 and added short again at 4850 down to 4805 area and then some scalps. The key idea was great but my stop was making me nervous and stop was 35 ticks higher. Had the stop been hit with a 230 gain yesterday I d be pretty much back at breakeven. The reason for sharing this trade is to show you what a thin razor's edge you are walking trading a TST combine or LTP.
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Last edited by garyboy275; January 9th, 2015 at 10:19 PM.
Reason: added LTP stats
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