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The 'story' right now is that funds are pulling money from US stocks but they seem to be going up anyway - U.S. stock prices defy fund flow rules - MarketWatch - the 'reason' given in this article is that companies are propping up their own share prices. Personally, I'm a bit skeptical about that explanation.
According to Bank of America, fund outflows from US Equity funds were $8.5 billion in the 2nd week of may and total $107 billion out flows in 17 of the past 20 weeks.
It's a bit of an odd thing to do - spend all your cash to prop up your share price but if that is what is happening - we might have an interesting 2nd half of the year.
Anyway - something to keep in mind on your next 2 tick scalp
Last week a narrow, evenly distributed, low volume range. First order of this week is to escape that, otherwise we will have choppy action within it. We did have a few decent breaks last week but it really was a matter of waiting for the 'break of the day' and not much else on the table if you missed that.
Today I'm watching Fridays low 2122.75 as well as 2115. If 2115 breaks, look out for participation coming in to give us a move, similarly if 2122.75 holds. I'd expect shorts to come in.
I'm not looking at daily levels today as yesterday was a holiday and above Fridays low we'll most likely chop about anyway.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2121.75 -> 2131.50
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135
Daily Numbers
Range - N/A
Value - N/A
Globex - 2115.25 -> 2127
Today 2115, 2122.75
Settlement - N/A
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
We finally got the participation we were looking for. Just under 1.6 million contracts. Not a huge day but decent participation. So we see a little confidence in the market now.
We got through the 2115 & 2110.25 levels and managed to stay below them. Today we look for follow through. Everyone will be aware that of late, we've had pushes down that have faded to nothing. So we need to be wary of that too. I still think June FOMC is what people are waiting and an interest rate decision. So just be on the look out for interest waning.
In terms of where we are going, hard to day but even 2030 would not be a huge pullback, it'd just put us back to the low of the range we have been in all year.
On the weekly profile we can see the clean break from 2115 down to 2108. We could move back up through there just as fast as we dropped as there's not many positions there. I would like to see us stay below 2115 and not work our way back through last weeks range, that's choppy action there in my opinion.
In the Globex session, yesterdays value high has held which is basically marking out the range after the drop. So I'm watching 2106 and 2115.25 for sellers to defend. Above 2115 it's probably going to be a chopfest. Keep an eye on 81.25 - we don't want that to hold.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2134
Value 2121.75 -> 2131.50
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135
Daily Numbers
Range - 2096 -> 2119.25 (pit) / 2124.50 (globex)
Value - 2097 -> 2106
Globex - 2101.25 -> 2106.25
Today 2115-2115.25, 2106
Settlement - 2105
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
1.3 million traded yesterday and we took back all the move down from Tuesday. Perhaps this rejection of the lows will give buyers confidence this time round or perhaps we are going have a repeat of last weeks activities at these highs.
If we do work our way up, we should expect fairly choppy indecisive action up to 32. With the possibility of a run if we break that. This flies in the face of recent history but it's always something to consider at a high.
Below us, the 2110.25 level is interesting as a line in the sand. I'd like to see another push down. As there is more volatility likely in that direction.
So fingers crossed for a push down, expect shop up to 32 and maybe a run at new highs if we can get up there again.
Weekly Numbers Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2105.50 -> 2126
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135
Daily Numbers
Range - 2101.25 (globex) / 2102.5 (pit) -> 2124.25
Value - 2110.50-> 2121.50
Globex - 2115.25 -> 2121.75
Settlement - 2121
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Last day of the month and last day of a fairly narrow week. We can see above how that range has been narrowing.
We held the 2110.25 level yesterday, or shy of it 1 tick.
It is common for a range week like this to break on the Thursday or Friday, so today my plan is to watch for the break and if not, fade whatever range forms.
We can see the high of the last 2 days is 2124.25, so a reversal off that, or yesterdays high in the pit session would be a good signal for sellers to jump in. Below us is the 2110.25, again a break of that might be what will give confidence for people to short.
Volume has been dropping through the week and for a decent break, we need to see some decent volume come into the market.
The one scenario we don't want to see is more rangebound behavior but if the market is waiting for a decision in interest rates in June FOMC, that is what we'll most likely see.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2112 -> 2126
S1 - 2113.25, R1 2135
Daily Numbers
Range - 2110.50 -> 2122.25
Value - 2111.75-> 2117.75
Globex - 2112 -> 2122.75
Settlement - 2121.75
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Decent volume on Friday, just under 1.7m and a push down but we didn't crack the low of the week. So looking above it still looks like we are caught in the range.
zooming in it appears the range is narrowing, we cracked 10.25 to the downside & we did close below it.
Looking at last weeks profile, I'd be looking for us to get below 2102 before any serious selling and for the upside to be choppy because it'll be back into that thin range we've had.
Friday did start with a good push down. After the push down we made it back up to 2115. As before the 10.25 hasn't held in the Globex session, so far we've just tested up to that push up and failed to make it there. We are now sitting inside Fridays value area and the Globex session is pretty neutral.
I'm looking for a test of 2115 into the open but also aware that this has happened once and the push down could start at any time and so I'll be ready to jump on if we do move down from here. 2102 is a hurdle we need to overcome and I will be looking for acceleration if we break it and a potential move to 2081.25.
Upside is just taking bites out in my opinion. It's been tough up there so far. Although I guess a move up off 2102 area could see us get a run up to 2110 before we start moving sideways.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2109 -> 2126
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50
Daily Numbers
Range - 2102.25 -> 2118.75 (pit) / 2122.75
Value - 2104.50 -> 2113
Globex - 2105.50 -> 2114
Settlement - 2106
Today only - 2102, 2115
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Yesterday we had a line in the sand at 2102 and were looking for sellers at 2115. We pushed down to 2100.25 before buyers came in and then up to 2117 till sellers came in. The Globex session has seen a big sell but from a the pit session perspective we are still very much in range and just had a couple of probes yesterday.
So the key today is seeing if we can sustain these lows from Globex of if the pit session claims them all back.
I am still interested in us staying below 2102, so looking at that level today to see if we can hold it as we go into the pit session.
It was a bit messy yesterday after the bounce off 2100.25. We can see the move down has been swift, I'd prefer us to build some volume here into the Globex session for us to lean on as we open into the pit session. What I don't want to see is news pushing us back up to the middle of yesterdays value area.
A short of yesterdays low or VAL would be interesting. I could see us making 2081.25 if we do get another push down and I'd expect plenty of downside participation if we do push down again.
As the overnight session is overwhelmingly short, there is a good chance of an initial push up off the open. That in itself will not put me off shorting. Moving above yesterdays VAL will make me less inclined to short.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2096 -> 2127
Value 2109 -> 2126
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50
Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.25 -> 2117.75
Value - 2105.50 -> 2115.50
Globex - 2094 -> 2112.75
Settlement - 2109.25
Today only - 2102
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Back up again yesterday. No directional conviction.
This weeks profile is already very balanced, in fact it's probably quite beautiful from a market profile traders perspective. This sort of market tends to suck in the middle but the extremes can be good fade trades.
We are getting breaks off the open but then having to sit through some chop for a while. So yesterday we had a move down, a swift move back up then 2 hours in a 5 point range, then a break. Then it ranged for 2 hours again and broke down.
So for a decent sized trade, we need to be in off the open or stay focused for the range to break. Other than that it's range fading whilst we stay in this weeks range. there is always a chance of a break out of this weeks range but I'm not going to be focusing on that today, rather I'm going to play the short game.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2094 -> 2117.75
Value 2104.25 -> 2112.75
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50
Daily Numbers
Range - 2100.25 -> 2117.75
Value - 2093.75 (globex) 2096.25 / > 2116
Globex - 2106 -> 2112.50
Settlement - 2106.75
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Range is narrowing, volume around 1.2 Million - a bit on the low side.
Not much to say about this profile, it's very pretty. Obviously we like trading in this area. So the value traders game plan is to fade the extremes. The more time we spend here, the more tricky trading will be in the value area.
Saying that, we could break at any time. Overnight we have held yesterdays value high and the failed attempt at the low of the day. If either hold, it could help us to run through the other side. Although it's not what you would call a high probability trade.
So into the open - looking for an initial push, then expecting consolidation, which will be tough trading and then maybe another push. I'll be focused on trying to get something early and then to be done for the day.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2094 -> 2120.75
Value 2106.25 -> 2115.25
S1 - 2093.25, R1 2121.50
Daily Numbers
Range - 2106 / 2107.25 (pit) -> 2120.75
Value - 2110.50 -> 2116.50
Globex - 2109.50 -> 2116.50
Settlement - 2116
Today only - 2109
Long Term 2110.25, 2081.25, 2060.75, 2029, 1984.75, 1961, 1922.25, 1877.50, 1798.25
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
