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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #971 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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15th March

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Market held at the 51.50 level (were had 51.25 on our watch list). We can't read too much into that medium term because it's FOCM today and a likely rate hike. So we have to let that wash out first.

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We dipped below the bottom of last weeks major distribution yesterday. Just a probe down, so our range is still intact. Looking to fade 2372 and 2359.25.

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Still pretty narrow though in the day session - around 10 pts.

Plan
- FOMC day, so not expecting much in the AM
- will look for the range to continue but with the FOMC it's just not a predictable day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2372
Value 2364 -> 2371
S1 - 2354.75, R1 - 2378.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2354.75 -> 2365.50 / 2371.75
Value 2358.75 -> 2362.75
Globex 2362.50 -> 2370.25

Settlement – 2369

Today Only - 2333.25, 2351.25, 2358.25, 2373

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; March 15th, 2017 at 06:32 AM.
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  #972 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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16th March

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A nice pop up on the FOMC. First order of today - are we going to keep it? If we look left, we are close to the all time highs and a rejection there would leave us potentially in a narrow range 2351.75-2400.

A break upside would give us the clearest picture. To the downside, it appears we'll have chop - but let's see how it plays out after FOMC now we got a rate hike.

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Below us most trade occured this week at 71 and below. So if we do pullback to that level, I'll be watching for a reaction.

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On the daily charts, we can see that we found resistance at 2374.50 before breaking upside. So eyes on that too.

Plan
- Fundamentals have changed with an interest rate hike, so not expecting the market to act too technically
- If it does act technically, I'll consider the rate hike reaction to be done
- watching 2400 upside for a new range to develop
- watching 2371, 2374 for a reaction
- will let the market play this hike out before doing too much

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2388.75
Value 2359.50 -> 2372
S1 - 2354.75, R1 - 2378.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2362.50 / 2365.75 -> 2387.75
Value 2367 -> 2380.50
Globex 2377.75 -> 2388.75

Settlement – 2386.50

Today Only - 2351.75-2400., 2371, 2374.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #973 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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17th March

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A pretty flat day yesterday, so no 'resolution' after the FOMC.

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We are building volume from 2375.50-> 2387, so watching the extremes as that builds out.

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Yesterday we were watching 71 & 74.50, we got down to 73.50 and then stuck in a tight range, mostly between 74.50 and 78. We've stayed in that range overnight, so eyes on that into the open.

Plan
- Absolutely no bias at all.
- bigger picture watching for a range 2350-2400
- near term watching 74.50->2380 and then 2387
- low expectation overall

The plan is "there is no plan"

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2388.75
Value 2357-> 2378
S1 - 2354.75, R1 - 2378.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2374.50 -> 2384.50 / 2388.75
Value 2367 -> 2380.50
Globex 2375.25 -> 2388.75

Settlement – 2377.25

Today Only - 2351.75-2400., 2371, 2374.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #974 (permalink)
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Quadruple Witching

Isn't today Quadruple Witching day?

Any significance?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/theres-14-trillion-reasons-why-tomorrows-quad-witch-could-matter

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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  #975 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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20th March

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I'm on the lookout for us developing to a range. Looking at 2351.50-2398 potentially.

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We have 2 distributions from last week, I have my eye on the outer extremes of both of those distributions, 2366 & 2380.75.

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On the daily profiles, we appear to be in a move down.

Plan
- Watching for a range 51.50-98.
- Also watching 66 & 80.75 within that for a bounce
- No real bias going into today but will follow any moves down
- Will also look to short a retracement up to yesterdays low/value area

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2388.75
Value 2357-> 2378.50
S1 - 2357.25, R1 - 2390.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2372.75 -> 2382
Value 2375.50 -> 2380
Globex 2368.75 -> 2374.75

Settlement – 2371.25

Today Only - 2351.50-2398, 2366-2380.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #976 (permalink)
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21 March

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Volatility is gradually reducing, not what we want to see. So now I am without bias and waiting for something to wake the market up.

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There's not much to read from the weekly profiles, so we won't bother. The dailies here aren't helping much either, other than confirming lack of direction

Plan
- No bias, low expectation day
- look for a trade off the open and the extremes from yesterdays prep
- look for any levels that develop intraday and the breaks of any ranges that form

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2354.75 -> 2388.75
Value 2357-> 2378.50
S1 - 2357.25, R1 - 2390.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2365.50 -> 2376
Value 2369.50 -> 2374.50
Globex 2368 -> 2376.75

Settlement – 2370.25

Today Only - 2351.50-2398, 2366-2380.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #977 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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22nd March

"The sky is falling", "Market loses confidence in Trumps plan", "a 5% stock market correction is coming"...

Funny how the financial press didn't mention any of this impending doom yesterday morning. Today they are all reporting financial armageddon.

Bottom line is they've not had that much to say for a while as the markets have been flat. Now it's moved, they need to squeeze the most 'news juice' out of it.

If you want to trade today well - you really need to tune that all out.

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Regardless of where we are headed, the move we put in yesterday was about on par for the days we were seeing in September, early October last year. It was not a massive sell off by any means. We did see a lot of absorption yesterday by bidders and the market was just driving straight through them. So it does look more like longer term players.

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We have broken through our 'presumed range' (so much for that!). Where we got down to so far is the 33.50 level, a minor support area from mid-Feb. We have another at 2297, which is also minor/untested.

Below that is the range we were stuck in at the start of the year which tops out at 2269.75. So I have mu eye on those 3 areas for a reaction.

No daily/weekly profiles today as I don't think they'll have much meaning after that big drop.

Plan
- No early trades, let the market show it's hand
- Jump on board any signs of a sell off and try to scale into a trade
- Careful to the upside unless we have massive volume. I think the upside will be safer if we can move up for a decent amount of time.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2332.25 -> 2378.75
Value 2344.50-> 2378.50
S1 - 2357.25, R1 - 2390.25

Daily Numbers

Range 2338 -> 2378.75
Value - not used today
Globex 2332.25 -> 2341.75

Settlement – 2342.25

Today Only - 2269.75. 2297, 2333.50

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; March 22nd, 2017 at 08:29 AM.
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  #978 (permalink)
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23rd March

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Well- the sky seems to have taken a break from falling... We've bounced up for now but the market will still be feeling the sting from the drop. So on any break down, we have a very good chance of sellers piling in again.

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Since the drop, we've been trading around 33.50-> 48.75. So first order of the day is seeing if we'll break that. It's then 'fresh air' all the way from here to 2369. So we could see a pop upside from here.

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There's not much to take from the daily profiles.

Plan
- No bias going into today
- not interested in trades in the middle of the 33.50-48.75 range
- looking for shorts below 33.50 and longs above 48.75
- if not break - will also be looking to fade these levels back into the range

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2332.25 -> 2378.75
Value 2342-> 2378.50
S1 - 2357.25, R1 - 2390.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2332.25 / 2332.75 -> 2348.75
Value - 2338.75 -> 2346.75
Globex 2341.50 -> 2349.50

Settlement – 2348

Today Only - 2333.50, 2348.75

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #979 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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28th March

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A few scenarios I'm considering medium term. In other words - waiting for a range to form, so we can trade it.

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To the upside, I'm watching 49.25. If we can break that we could see a swift move up to 2369.

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From a daily perspective, we do have chop above us.

All in all - not much there to give us a strong bias but it does have the appearance of the push through that top range being rejected.

Plan
- No bias - a wait and see day
- Will play longs above yesterdays range with caution at 49.25
- Will follow any short side momentum only if there is overwhelming volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2331.75 -> 2378.75
Value 2342-> 2351.50
S1 - 2324.75, R1 - 2371.75

Daily Numbers

Range 2317.75 / 23155 -> 2341.50
Value - 2328.50 -> 2340.50
Globex 2338.25 -> 2344

Settlement – 2338.50

Today Only - 2349.25, 2369

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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  #980 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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29th March

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Another 'hard to call' day in my opinion. On the one hand, it does look like we are struggling to make headway into the upper range (top white shaded area). I just need a bit more move up to be confident to play the range (up to 2400 and back down). If we do hit 2400, we'll probably need to adjust the bottom of our range area.

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Not much from the profile other that it tends to confirm the move up. We need to hold this upper distribution in the US session when real volume comes in, so eyes on 51 if it doesn't break before 9:30am EST.

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Looking left here, I wouldn't be at all surprised if we ranged 2318-2360. So that's another potential scenario to look out for.

Plan
- Long biased, will switch to short if we see downside volume trading below 51
- Volatility has been decent the past few days (albeit after a slow start), so no hurry to engage early

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2317.75 -> 2360.50
Value 2321.25 -> 2343.75
S1 - 2324.75, R1 - 2371.75

Daily Numbers

Range 2333.50 -> 2360.50
Value - 2341.75 -> 2360.25
Globex 2340.75 -> 2356.75

Settlement – 2351.50

Today Only - 2350

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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