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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #961 (permalink)
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I nearly bought tickets to the show! Had to fly to Bangkok and couldn't manage to get time off work, but half my friends are there. Hope you enjoy the show!

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1 March 2017



Decent volume yesterday and we've escaped the range - but only overnight. So first order of the day is whether we can hold these new prices into the day session.



We can see that we dropped into the range and have now popped out the top. Expectation in Mondays prep was that if we dropped below 63.50 - we'd end up ranging around 55-63.50.

We actually tested bottom of the range (well 57.50) and then back up to 64.50 in the day session.



And overnight we've spiked up to 74.50.

Plan
- Into the open - look for a snap back down, which may be just a re-balance after this pop up overnight OR it could be a rejection of the move up.
- If a re-balance, we should find support after an initial push down.
- If a rejection, we'll go back into the range.
- On the other hand if we move straight up with no downside move, I have no idea how that upside move will play out. So caution to the upside but trade to the long side if we move up off the open.
- A more confident long will come off a downside test (e.g a gap fill)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2357.50-> 2375.50
Value 2363.25 -> 2368.75
S1 - 2355.25, R1 - 2370.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2357.50 -> 2367 / 2368.75
Value 2360.75 -> 2365.75
Globex 2361.50 -> 2375.50

Settlement 2362.75

Today Only - 2355, 2363.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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2nd March



A nice move up last night with high volume.



Not much on the volume profile. Obviously not much has traded from 2370 to 2400. So it's going to be pretty easy to slip back to 2370.



This is interesting. We can see we found support at 2395 yesterday afternoon. Overnight that has turned into resistance. So as we go into today, I have an eye on 2395 as potential resistance and of course, we my have to consider that area 'tested'...

As we've had a good move up now, I'm hoping we can develop into a tradable 100 tick range. Let's be on the lookout for that over the coming days.

we are at prices we've not traded before, so there's not much to base decisions on other than the volume and trade balance. So quite happy to let the day develop before jumping in.

Plan
- after the open - look for a move down if we are still below 2395
- will look to short a test of 2395 after the open
- will take long trades but obviously very wary of the fact there's not much volume from here down to 2370
- we are at prices we've not traded before, so there's not much to base decisions on other than the volume and trade

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2357.50-> 2401
Value 2359.75 -> 2375.25
S1 - 2355.25, R1 - 2370.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2361.50 / 2381.25 -> 2401
Value 2390.50 -> 2401
Globex 2389.50 -> 2394

Settlement 2393.50

Today Only - 2395

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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3rd March



Decent volume again and a pullback.

If you look at yesterdays prep, we noted both the resistance at 2395 as well as the likelihood of a drop to 2370 because of how little volume traded there.

We also mentioned the prospect of a larger tradeable range developing.

So for me, I'm not of the opinion that this is the start of a huge move down but I am hoping it's the beginnings of a larger range developing.

I have my eye on 2375 as being the potential high of any larger range as it's the top of the old Dec-Feb range we had.



We can see we've filled in the weekly profile a bit more. On any down move, I'd expect us to find at least temporary support at 2370.



We can see we didn't make it down to 2370. I'll be watching yesterdays levels for resistance as we open.

Plan
- neutral bias. Could go either way
- If we move up off the open, take longs but be wary of yesterdays range/value range for resistance
- If we move down be wary as we approach 2370 for support
- Other than that, follow the moves

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2357.50-> 2401
Value 2360 -> 2383.25
S1 - 2355.25, R1 - 2370.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2379.25 -> 2393 / 2394.25
Value 2383 -> 2388.50
Globex 2373.75 -> 2382

Settlement 2382

Today Only - 2395, 2370

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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7th March



Market is pulling back. Not a lot and I'm still watching out for us to settle into a nice 100+ point range.

Trouble is - pullbacks have been very shallow of late, so it's be silly not to look for some closer levels as potential support. So I'm looking at 2355.50 and 2336.



We are also holding above the lower distribution from last week, 2368.50 area. So this also could be as low as we go.



Yesterday had a slightly higher close than open. Not really a lot going on there.

Plan
- Biased downside but looking at the potential that the bounce at 68.50 could be the end of the move.
- Volatility still low, so looking for an early trade and expecting chop
- If no open trade, then it's one of those 'wait and see' days, I don't have many scenarios going in

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2357.50-> 2401
Value 2381 -> 2359.75
S1 - 2359, R1 - 2402.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2367 -> 2378.25 / 2380.75
Value 2367.50 -> 2375
Globex 2379.50 -> 2375.50

Settlement 2375.50

Today Only - 2336, 2355.50, 2368.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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8th March



A slow grind down. As per yesterdays prep, watch 55.50 on the way down.



We are now below the bulk of volume traded this week. So on the lookout for a hold at 68 if we move up.



Yesterday was quite a poor trading day. Expecting similar today

Plan
- low expectation day
- looking for early trades as it'll probably revert to chop after the open
- on the lookout for a reaction at 55.50 and 68

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2359.50-> 2380.75
Value 2368.25 -> 2375.75
S1 - 2359, R1 - 2402.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2364.50 -> 2374.75 / 2375.50
Value 2368 -> 2371.50
Globex 2359.50 -> 2367.75

Settlement 2375.50

Today Only - 2336, 2355.50, 2368.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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No Trading Thursday or Friday for me.

I don't trade the rollover and it's usually rolling for both the Thursday and Friday.

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13th March

Rolled into June contract, which is about 3.25pts below March.



Still looking at 2 scenarios
1 - Market finds support at a recent level (may have already happened)
2 - Market moves into a nice 100 point range

We may not get an answer till after the FOMC - rates are supposed to go up so we could start the week in a holding pattern till that happens.



Just one fat distribution last week. 2358.25-2373 are the extremes.



The daily profiles show the same thing. With overnight action in the middle of Fridays range, not the thing you want to see for a breakout.

Plan
- Expecting a tight range till FOMC
- looking to fade moves to 2373 and 3258.25
- Follow a break on extreme volume only

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2351 -> 2377.75
Value 2361.75 -> 2372.25
S1 - 2354.75, R1 - 2378.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2359 -> 2374 / 2376.25
Value 2363 -> 2370.50
Globex 2364.75 -> 2369.25

Settlement – 2367.50

Today Only - 2333.25, 2351.25, 2358.25, 2373

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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14th March



As expected Monday was lackluster with little movement.



We did trade up towards the high of last weeks distribution/value area - a point short of our 2373 level but close enough.



It does seem a long wan to the low of that area, so looking for more local action off the open (yesterdays levels).

Plan
- No bias, not expecting much until FOMC on Wed
- looking for continuation down towards the low of last weeks distribution to (2358.25)
- Will keep an eye out at yesterdays high/low for a bounce too - it's possible we'll have a really narrow day, in which case continuation is off the table.

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2351 -> 2377.75
Value 2361.75 -> 2372.25
S1 - 2354.75, R1 - 2378.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2364.75 / 2365.50 -> 2372
Value 2366.75 -> 2369.75
Globex 2366 -> 2371.75

Settlement 2367

Today Only - 2333.25, 2351.25, 2358.25, 2373

Long Term Levels - 2178.75, 2129.50, 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75

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