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DTs Pre Market Prep

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1st February



On Monday we were looking for a test of the old range and we now have that - so we need to see some speculators jump on board long now. Upside has really good potential if people start reacting now.



On the weekly profile, we are sandwiched between 2 areas of high activity 2263/2288.25 - that & the fact that the lower high activity area has held does mean we have to consider the possibility of rangebound action within that range.



Not much to add from the dailies other than to watch out for the regular levels from yesterday trade. We've held the day session high, so a retest to there or value high is worth looking for.

Plan
- Mixed signals, we got the bounce we were looking for, looking to jump on the follow through. The weekly profiles look more rangebound
- looking to jump on any momentum to the upside but not too close to 88
- pullbacks to yesterdays reference points will be taken long
- looking to short 88 on a hold
- if we move down without hitting 88 first, will look to short a break of 62

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2262.25 -> 2285.75
Value 2264.25 -> 2277.25
S1 - 2306.25, R1 - 2261.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2262.25 -> 2275.25 / 2276.75
Value 2263.75 -> 2268.75
Globex 2275 -> 2281.50

Settlement 2274.50

Today only - 2263, 2288.25

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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3rd Feb

Struggling to keep up here - realized the other night that the wife stuffed my "decaf tea box" with regular tea.... I've had almost 2 weeks of insomnia... at least I know why now...



I'm still working on the premise of a bounce off the old high bringing in some buyers once it becomes clear. It's not done that yet - but it's still one of my scenarios. Volume is descending into the end of the week.



On Wednesday we had


Quoting 
On the weekly profile, we are sandwiched between 2 areas of high activity 2263/2288.25 - that & the fact that the lower high activity area has held does mean we have to consider the possibility of rangebound action within that range.

And that seems to be playing out... Note the step in the weekly profile around 76.50.



Dailies show fairly narrow days within this range.

Plan
- Presume range 65-85 will stay intact but also look for shorts where the step is around 76.50
- look for headfakes on any break
- look for an early trade off any high volume areas from overnight

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2262.25 -> 2285.75
Value 2266 -> 2276.50
S1 - 2306.25, R1 - 2261.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2264.50 / 2266.75 -> 2279.75
Value 2271.25 -> 2276.25
Globex 2270.50 -> 2279.75

Settlement 2275.50

Today only - 2263, 2288.25

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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6th February



We had a good push up on Friday, although most of it was overnight. We still haven't popped the high yet, so today is a simple day. Looking for signs of downside volume coming in on a failure or upside volume on a break.



Last week is showing a typical range week profile. We really need to stay above that 2283.50 or we are likely back to range bound behavior.



We have a few levels to watch today - Fridays high because we've held it so far which is 'fuel' for people to go short. Also Fridays day session low is just below the 2283.50 and so is also a line in the sand for shorts.

Plan
- At a decision point, looking to join volume either side (breakout or fail to break)
- Expecting range bound behavior below 2283/2283.50
- Obviously, on day like this watching for signs of lower volatility will scupper the plan, so an eye on the depth/avg volume/pace of trading

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2262.25 -> 2294
Value 2265.50 -> 2278.50
S1 - 2271, R1 - 2302.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2270.50 / 2283 -> 2294
Value 2289.75 -> 2293.75
Globex 2287.50-> 2293.50

Settlement 2291

Today only - 2283/2283.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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7th February



Pretty indecisive day yesterday. We got a roll over off the highs but no volume. We then couldn't start working through the high volume area from last week.



We can see the step in the profile her at 2283.50 and that's a line in the sand and below there we expect range bound behavior as it's going back to the range from last week. We could in theory see buyers jump in, in size if we lift from here but I think it's fairly unlikely.



Yesterday was stuck pretty much in yesterdays range. As usual - with a week where Monday trades within Fridays range, we have to be on the lookout for a range week.

Plan

- After a slow start to the week, expecting a slow day - so looking for a trade off the open as that might me all we have
- looking for momentum upside as we have held 83.50 but not expecting much
- with low momentum, will look to fade any move to 94, hard to say where we should look to fade any moves down at some point, 84.50 seems obvious but I suspect that even if we have a range week, the range needs to expand a bit before we settle into it

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2262.25 -> 2294
Value 2265.50 -> 2278.50
S1 - 2271, R1 - 2302.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2283.50 -> 2291.50 / 2294.25
Value 2288.75 -> 2293.25
Globex 2284-> 2291.25

Settlement 2290.25

Today only - 2283.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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8th January



Tough day yesterday but well within our expectations. The inside Monday leading to a range week. This does not have to last the whole week, we tend to build energy as we go along a tight range like this till we break. The challenge is to be alert when the break actually happens.



We are trading above the step in the profile from last week. with 2294 being where we taper off.



Just moving sideways. Note that yesterday we didn't get a good trade off the open but we did get a fade of 2294 as per the plan.

Plan
- as per yesterday, presume the range until further notice with extremes at 2294 and 2284
- despite yesterday, still looking for an early trade as it's still likely the best opportunity
- an eye out for a break of the range, especially upside which I feel has the most potential (downside is last weeks range)

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2283.50 -> 2295
Value 2285.50 -> 2291
S1 - 2271, R1 - 2302.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2283.75 / 2285.25 -> 2295
Value 2286.75 -> 2292.25
Globex 2284.25 -> 2291.25

Settlement – 2288.50

Key Levels – 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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9th February



Still in that range. Getting late in the week and while Thursday is historically a good day to shake off a range week and pop. Of late though, we've just ploughed through range weeks right till Friday.



We can see the weeks value area is just 6 points. From this perspective it's shorts above 2292 and long below 2286. Hardly seems worth bothering...



Not much to say about this other than - it's moving sideways. We did have a flurry of activity when London opened today but that died out again.

Plan
- Look for an early trade off the open
- Be alert for a Thursday break of the weeks range
- other than that shorts above 92 and longs below 86

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2281 -> 2295
Value 2285.75 -> 2291.25
S1 - 2271, R1 - 2302.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2281 -> 2292
Value 2286.25 -> 2291.25
Globex 2287.75 -> 2292.25

Settlement 2290.25

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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Well, that's something nice to wake up to!

Thanks to those that voted, it's humbling to know someone took the effort to vote for you.

I first made the prep public because it helps to keep me disciplined both in terms of actually doing it each day but also in making sure I do it properly too and don't just rush through it.

I'd advise anyone that does prep to share it with at least one other person because it really does help to know a peer is reviewing it.

There - that's my acceptance speech...

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10th February



We were looking for a "Thursday break" yesterday and we got it. Today looking for signs of follow through, although over the past few months, this market hasn't been very good at following through.

As usual, I feel that we'll see more speculation to the upside if we fall back a little first. I'll be watching the 95.25 & 99.75 levels as they seem to be obvious areas for the market to fall back to.



If we look below, we can see we spent most time this week between 2285 and 2291.50, I'll be expecting slow range-bound action if we get back into that area.



Not much traded between 2295 and 2302 with the move up yesterday, so any move down could be quite fast. We did range after the move up yesterday and that upper range is holding so far overnight.

Plan
- Will follow any upside moves but will expect more from a trade if we can pull back first
- Will look to short below 2302 and expectation there is that we could move very quickly to 2295, so if we do break down I wont wait for a pullback
- below 2295, expecting slow rangebound action

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2281 -> 2309.50
Value 2285 -> 2292.50
S1 - 2271, R1 - 2302.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2287.75 / 2293 -> 2307.75
Value 2301.75-> 2307.75
Globex 2303 -> 2309.50

Settlement – 2304.25

Today Only - 2295.25 & 2299.75

Key Levels – 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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