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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #931 (permalink)
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17th January



Still moving sideways, so regardless of what is on the rest of the charts, the market is still stick in a narrow range and we are waiting to break that range.



Very typical of a range week - all the action focused in the middle. I don't see much worth looking at from the weekly volume profile. The value area has held yesterday (holiday) and so far today, so we'll keep an eye on that.



Once again, not much to look at. Obviously, yesterday was very light. I'm still looking at 60-70 as an area to steer clear of.

Plan
- market is still in a tight range but still capable of a decent range
- going to have to be a wait and see day but staying out from 2060-2070
- looking for something off the open and not interested if we have another "hour chop then break" day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2248.50 -> 2275.25
Value 2261 -> 226.50
S1 - 2256, R1 - 2281.50

Daily Numbers
- Not using this today because of the holiday

Settlement - Not using this today because of the holiday

Today only - 2260-2270 (avoid)

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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  #932 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
17th January



Still moving sideways, so regardless of what is on the rest of the charts, the market is still stick in a narrow range and we are waiting to break that range.



Very typical of a range week - all the action focused in the middle. I don't see much worth looking at from the weekly volume profile. The value area has held yesterday (holiday) and so far today, so we'll keep an eye on that.



Once again, not much to look at. Obviously, yesterday was very light. I'm still looking at 60-70 as an area to steer clear of.

Plan
- market is still in a tight range but still capable of a decent range
- going to have to be a wait and see day but staying out from 2060-2070
- looking for something off the open and not interested if we have another "hour chop then break" day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2248.50 -> 2275.25
Value 2261 -> 226.50
S1 - 2256, R1 - 2281.50

Daily Numbers
- Not using this today because of the holiday

Settlement - Not using this today because of the holiday

Today only - 2260-2270 (avoid)

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5


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  #933 (permalink)
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  #934 (permalink)
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18th January



Still in the range - so still waiting for it to break and still looking for the early trade in case it's a snooze fest.



This weeks profile is going the way of last weeks - I'm still sticking with 60-70 as a no-go area unless it's off the open.



It was pretty narrow yesterday, the low of yesterday will be interesting as it's below 60 but I'm going to stay away from the high and value area today.



In terms of the early trade - the xxxx's here are what I always put up (manually) before the open - I just mark where the significant areas were on the overnight volume profile. You can see overnight high was 2276.50, overnight low was 2257.50 but the big concentration of volume built up from 61.75/63.00->64.50 (and a level on it's own at 65). The extremes of the high volume areas are good areas to engage soon after the open unless we open really far from them (as traders there are probably shaken out). We hit 64.50 about 3 mins after the open and went down to 60 - not a huge move by any measure. Obviously if you can catch something like that early on, there's less pressure to get involved with the chop that's likely to come along afterwards. Note that as we opened below 63 - that was also a reasonable short - so a short at 63 and 64.50 were thrown up, one of which worked well, the other of which failed but gave you plenty of time to get out without too much damage.

Hence - not wanting to engage between 60-70 UNLESS it's just after the open.

Plan
- market is still in a tight range but still capable of a decent range
- going to have to be a wait and see day but staying out from 2060-2070
- looking for something off the open and not interested if we have another "hour chop then break" day

Weekly Numbers

Range 2248.50 -> 2275.25
Value 2261 -> 226.50
S1 - 2256, R1 - 2281.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2257.25 -> 2267.25
Value 2261.50 -> 2266.50
Globex 2261.25 -> 2268.50

Settlement 2262.75


Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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  #935 (permalink)
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19th January



Still in the range and the days aren't getting easier to trade. Still looking to trade early and clock off if it starts to chop around.



Whilst geometrically pleasing, the weekly profiles aren't ideal for trading. Once again, not looking to engage between 2060 and 2070 unless it's at the open.



We can see that yesterday was narrow but that we did have a 6 point move down off the open and then back up again. So the plan today is the same....

Plan
- market is still in a tight range but still capable of a decent range
- going to have to be a wait and see day but staying out from 2060-2070
- looking for something off the open and not interested if we have another "hour chop then break" day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2257.25 -> 2270.50
Value 2262.50 -> 2267.50
S1 - 2256, R1 - 2281.50

Daily Numbers
Range 22578.25 -> 2267.25 / 2268.50
Value 2262.25 -> 2265.25
Globex 2261.50 -> 2268.25

Settlement 2266.50


Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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  #936 (permalink)
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20th January



Still in the range, and still waiting for it to break. Perhaps President Trump will help us next week.....



We had a decent probe down yesterday, but we bounced back into the middle of the tight range. It's hard to see us making a break on a Friday, but I'll be tuning in for the first hour at least...

Plan
- market is still in a tight range but still capable of a decent range
- going to have to be a wait and see day but staying out from 2060-2070
- looking for something off the open and not interested if we have another "hour chop then break" day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2253 -> 2270.50
Value 2262.50 -> 2267.50
S1 - 2256, R1 - 2281.50

Daily Numbers
Range 22573 -> 2269.50
Value 2257-> 2265
Globex 2260.75 -> 2267.50

Settlement 2261.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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  #937 (permalink)
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24th January



Still in that range. There's no need for the weekly profiles today because it's just going to tell us the same thing. I guess we need something solid from Trump before we can move one way or the other. If he does manage to cut taxes to the extent he's implying, it's hard to see how that would not cause the market to move. Otherwise, it's a matter of the range itself causing a break - which will obviously be a tougher move to trade as it'll come from nowhere.



So for now - playing the range. Not engaging in the 2060-2070 area and looking for probes outside. We had a very good day yesterday in terms of the opening move. Friday was trickier with a move off the open, then chop, then a breakdown followed by more chop. So I'm sticking with trying to get something close to the open.

Plan
- market is still in a tight range but still capable of a decent range
- going to have to be a wait and see day but staying out from 2060-2070
- looking for something off the open and not interested if we have another "hour chop then break" day

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2251.75 -> 2267.50
Value 2258.75 -> 2263.25
S1 - 2255.25, R1 - 2275

Daily Numbers
Range 2251.75 -> 2267.50
Value 2254.75 -> 2261.75
Globex 2259.50 -> 2264.25

Settlement 2262

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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  #938 (permalink)
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25th January

Holy headfake, Batman. Something actually happened!



We did break out yesterday but from a big picture perspective, we haven't had much of a move outside the range. In addition, volume yesterday was pretty low. As it is - today is all about whether we can carry on up or if this is just a headfake and we'll fall back into the range. Low volume sort of favors the headfake but we get no points for guessing right anyway. My opinion - let it play out and jump in accordingly.



We know that we've been trading most in the 60-70 range, so I'm looking at the top of that to hold on a retrace. Of course, the market could shoot straight up, which would be nice. If it does come back, then I wouldn't want to be in a new short too close to 70 as that's really the line in the sand in my opinion.



The dailies show pretty much the same thing.

Plan
- Simple day - looking to see if we can stay out of the range
- any move up with volume will be a no brainer long
- moves down require a little more thought - if 2070 gets tested and holds, then that will be a great long trade as I think we'll see a lot of people jump on that
- if not, then back to the dull old range.
- still looking for something close to the open. If we do settle back into a range it's going to be a move down and then the potential for sideways action is very high

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2251.75 -> 2282.25
Value 2255 -> 2266.50
S1 - 2255.25, R1 - 2275

Daily Numbers
Range 2259.50 / 2262 -> 2280.50
Value 2266.25 -> 2280.25
Globex 2274.25-> 2282.25

Settlement 2274.50

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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  #939 (permalink)
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26th January



Onwards and upwards but not a lot of participation. I'd still like to see a pullback to 70 for a more decisive continuation up.



We are at new prices and apart from the 70 level, I don't see that much of interest below us. Obviously 2300 is a big number, so we need to pay attention there. I'm basically still waiting for participation to come in, so I'm looking for that more than any activity at a specific price level.

Plan
- Waiting for volume to come in and show us what the market wants to do
- obvious places would be 2270 or 2300
- as we are in new territory, I don't think we should take much notice of other prices between those levels - but just go with the volume, if there is any

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2251.75 -> 2299.50
Value 2252 -> 2281.40
S1 - 2255.25, R1 - 2275

Daily Numbers
Range 2274.25 / 2284.25 -> 2299.50
Value 2288 -> 2293
Globex 2291.75 -> 2299.50

Settlement – 2294

Key Levels – 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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30th January



As we discussed last week, if we can test the high of the old range and start to push up, I think that gives us a good chance of a high participation move up. If not and we drop back into the range, I expect we'll spin around in the old range some more. Those are the 2 scenarios I'm looking at medium term.



If we do push up, beware as we approach 2288.25 as we have a big step there to the downside, there's not much trade all the way from here down to 65, so be careful long as there's not much holding this up.



Not much to add here, it's a small gap down today, so we could see a reaction upwards off the open. That may be just a rebalance of overnight activity.

Plan
- a 'go with' day - just go with whichever way it breaks
- will be more aggressive long if we hit 2270 first
- very careful on longs off the open as it might be a short term rebalance
- go with any volume to the short side down to 2265
- no longs too close to 2288.25

Weekly Numbers
Range - 2251.75 -> 2299.50
Value 2262.50 -> 2299.50
S1 - 2306.25, R1 - 2261.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2287 -> 2295.50 / 2296.75
Value 2288.25 -> 2290.75
Globex 2281 -> 2285.75

Settlement 2289

Key Levels 2178.75, 2129.50 , 2099.75, 2084, 2078.75, 2000.75, 1945.5,1898.75,1812.5,1783.5

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