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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #911 (permalink)
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28th November



Back to it after the Thanksgiving holiday week. As we can see an extremely low participation week where the market continues it's march upwards.

So into this week, we do have a little 'news risk' with the Jill Stein recount. I don't think the market is really taking it seriously at this point but it's worth keeping an eye on it because if it does get taken more seriously, then we could see ue giving back these gains.

Other than that, the first question the market needs to answer this week is - can we carry on moving up with a full participation market? I'll be presuming that and overall long biased with a pullback to 83.75 and a subsequent bounce up as a move that should gather a lot of long side speculation. A straight continuation up is OK but I'd prefer the pullback first.



Looking at the weekly profile, we have a big step at 2202 but that was a low volume week. Still, it's worth keeping an eye on.



Not much activity on the daily profiles.

Plan
- Long bias going in
- an ear on the news in case the 'recount' gathers steam/looks to change the result
- Looking for pullbacks to 2202, 2183.75 as areas buyers should step in and give us larger target trades
- Looking also for signs of the 'full volume' market rejecting these higher prices after the holidays

Weekly Numbers
Range 2178.50 -> 2211.75
Value 2193.25-> 2205.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2205.50 / 2204.75 -> 2211.75
Value 2206 -> 2209.50
Globex 2204.50 -> 2208.50

Settlement 2211.25

Today only - 2202

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #912 (permalink)
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29th November



Moving sideways and volume still low. We do have a few numbers out today which may give us a boost, otherwise I'm not seeing where the volume is going to come from unless.
- We hit a major support level (e.g. old high at 2183.75)
- or the market collapses

I'm still long biased so looking for support to encourage more buyers in.



We broker through the top of the major distribution yesterday and now the bottom of it is holding, so an eye on 2198 today.



We are in danger of settling into a range for the rest of the week. Not much to say about this other than that. Note that so far we have held yesterdays low, so we may have already had our test and just need the US traders to give us a boost upside.

Plan
- Long bias going in
- an ear on the news in case the 'recount' gathers steam/looks to change the result
- Looking for pullbacks to 2198, 2183.75 as areas buyers should step in and give us larger target trades if one of these holds
- Looking also for signs of the 'full volume' market rejecting these higher prices after the holidays


Weekly Numbers
Range 2178.50 -> 2211.75
Value 2193.25-> 2205.75

Daily Numbers
Range 219.25 / 2209.50
Value 2202.50 -> 2207.50
Globex 2198.75-> 2206

Settlement 2200.75

Today only - 2198

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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30th November



Still no progress, so we wait for the market to break one way or the other. As per yesterday, it's looking more & more likely that we'll sit in this range for the week.



A very evenly traded profile, which makes trades in the middle of the range problematic. But should be OK for fades at the extremes.



Thirteen points range yesterday. Overall not much to get excited about today.

Plan
- Waiting for a break
- Until that happens look to play off the weeks extremes as well as prior day range/value
- If we do break - look for a pullback to the current extremes for a continuation

Weekly Numbers

Range 2196.25 -> 2209.50
Value 2202.25-> 2207.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2196.25 -> 2209.50
Value 2202.50 -> 2209.50
Globex 2200.75-> 2208.75

Settlement 2203.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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1st December

Letters to Santa, everyone...



We've popped the top and the bottom of the weeks range, so that leaves us still neutral. Volume was up yesterday and it was a down day overall, so it is worth looking for weakness off the open.



Same deal on the weekly profile - just showing range expansion and not much else.



The dailies do look more bearish but then again, we most likely looked bullish when we popped the top of the range.

Plan
- Neutral bias, although we are at the bottom of the range after a similar sized probe down to the probe through the top (as of now, the probe through the top was still larger)
- So off the open looking at the 2190-2194 area as a decision point and looking to go with a trade away from their in either direction. That of course may already be in progresss

Weekly Numbers
Range 2194.25 -> 2213.75
Value 2200-> 2207.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2197.75 -> 2213 / 2213.75
Value 2200 -> 2208.25
Globex 2194.25 -> 2201.75

Settlement – 2198.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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2nd December



Volume up, price down. As per previous preps, we've been looking for a test of the old highs. At this point we are looking for either:

1 - A bounce up which should see good participation as people will feel it validates these higher prices
2 - Market breaks down and reverts to the old range (target 2080-2100)



Upside be a bit wary as we move towards the upper distribution (with a low of 2195).



From a daily perspective, we are holding yesterdays low overnight, which could well be "the old high holding". So we could move up from here.

Plan
- Waiting for the 2183.75 area to be resolved.
- Will jump on any high participation long above 83.75
- For shorts, will wait for 84 to break
- wary above at 2195

Weekly Numbers
Range 2186 -> 2213.75
Value 2197.50 -> 2208

Daily Numbers
Range 2186 -> 2202 / 2203
Value 2186.75 -> 2196.75
Globex 2186.50 -> 2192

Settlement 2192

Today only - 2195

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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Hmmmmmm - platform is down, my Ninja key has expired....

out of interest - for various reasons (mostly the way the ES is moving/playing off intraday activity), I was considering changing the log to Crude.

Any thoughts on that?

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  #917 (permalink)
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Sounds good to me.

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  #918 (permalink)
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Let's go with crude. I'm in!

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  #919 (permalink)
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Definitely more action there right now.

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Sounds good - I'll look to slowly switch into the New Year then!

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