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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,532 / 916
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old November 1st, 2016, 07:26 AM   #901 (permalink)
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1st November

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Still in the pre-election malaise.

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Yesterday was quite narrow. We have had narrow days in the range before and most of the time we have shaken it off and put in a decent range day. We should be aware though, that as we get close to the election, traders may back off.

So the plan isn't changing - but we should be aware of the possibility of a slowdown into the 8th.

Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- News risk is high considering the Feds announcements on Friday
- Still looking for early trades
- an eye on the longer term range means anything below 2011 is worth fading for a long

Weekly Numbers

Range 2107.75-> 2163.50
Value 2116.25 -> 2141.75
S1 - 2102, R1 - 2157.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2114.75 / 2119 -> 2127.75 / 2130.25
Value 2121 -> 2125.50
Globex 2114.75 -> 2129.50

Settlement – 2127.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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Old November 1st, 2016, 07:52 AM   #902 (permalink)
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- News risk is high considering the Feds announcements on Friday

Wednesday FED day,
Friday is NFP

We have twice the fun this week.

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Old November 2nd, 2016, 02:16 AM   #903 (permalink)
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Wednesday FED day,
Friday is NFP

We have twice the fun this week.

I can't imaging the Fed doing anything this week - not so close to the election. I could be wrong though!

We were blessed in the fun department yesterday for sure.

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Old November 7th, 2016, 05:24 AM   #904 (permalink)
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7th November

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Kudos to Gary Norden calling the market as having "priced in a Clinton win". Markets dropped on the re-launch of the FBI investigation into her emails and has now gapped up on the "nothing to see here" from the FBI.

Next 2 days are at high chance of news risk, certainly trading tomorrow will be potentially risky - although I'm not sure what restrictions there are on election related news releases while the polls are open.

For today, well potentially we have some ground to make up to the upside based on where we were when the FBI dropped the news last week. On the other hand, we may find traders simply don't want to take the risk today.

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We have 2 distributions formed last week. The lower one seems to top out at 2102.50 and the upper one has a low of around 2120. If we pierce 2102.50, there's not much trade till 2120 - so look out for a pop if 02.15 breaks but be cautious as we approach 2120.' So we could pop to 2120 when the US traders come into the market.

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Also to the downside, an eye on Fridays high if we do drop.

Plan
- There's a lot of variables coming into play this week - so an ear on the news as much as the action
- I'm cautiously bullish heading into today, mostly from the fundamental view that Mrs C seems to be in the clear
- Wikileaks should be of particular interest
- In the absence of news, we may find a general lack of interest IF speculators decide they don't want to play this close to the election, so an eye on volume/market depth


Weekly Numbers
Range 2078.75 -> 2130.50
Value 2079.75 -> 2107.75
S1 - 2063.25, R1 - 2112

Daily Numbers
Range 2079-> 2094.25
Value 2084.50 -> 2093.50
Globex 2102.75 -> 2111

Settlement – 2080

Today only - 2102.50, 2120

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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Old November 8th, 2016, 03:28 AM   #905 (permalink)
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8th Nov

Trading is out of the question today for me.

Good luck to all those voting today!

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Old November 9th, 2016, 06:09 AM   #906 (permalink)
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9th November

Markets are likely to be crazy today after the Trump win.

I'm not trading the S&P today but rather looking for some bargain stocks that get sold off too hard.

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Old November 10th, 2016, 03:16 AM   #907 (permalink)
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10th November

Index futures have had a bit of a roller-coaster ride over the past few days during and since the election. So how do we adjust our approach to trading over the next few weeks?

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Prior to the election, we’d been in a holding pattern. In fact as we left the summer time, we didn’t stop ranging, we just had larger daily moves but were still without direction. Now that Trump is President elect, we enter a period of perceived uncertainty. At this point, let’s step back and become a-political. It does not matter who you wanted to be President, it does not matter what you think about Trump. It only matters what the market thinks about Trump. So whether you think Trump brings certainty or uncertainty, the market seems uncertain. So personal opinions aside as you trade!

We enter a period of increased news risk. Trump does have a tendency to shoot from the hip and in turn the media does get into a frenzy. Again – don’t take this as political opinion, just as an observation of facts. So if Trump is being interviewed on mainstream TV, there is a possible that something he says initiates a move. Over the next few months, as he reveals his team and more details on policies, these announcements, will impact the market.

If you are trading Index Futures, Interest Rates or in fact, pretty much anything, you need to keep on your toes, keep an ear to the news squawks and keep an eye on liquidity. You can’t watch every news channel, so if you do feel liquidity is thinning out and the market is starting to show signs of odd behavior and you are in a trade, it might be a time to be a bit more aggressive about closing out.

Other than that, we should have a period of higher volatility. Which is good IF we adjust for it.

Now that the election is over, our first thing to consider is the overall range and whether we can escape it or not. So 2104-2183.75 (all time high) is my presumed range for the moment. If it breaks, I’ll be looking for a retrace back to the range extreme for a continuation trade.

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We don’t get many clues at this point from the weekly profiles. Not everything is useful all the time.

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Trading after a big move day can be a bit tricky. We can often have a snap back (although yesterday WAS a snap back) and give back all the gains/losses. We can get a continuation and we can get the market go into a shock, small range day.

So on days like this, the best approach is to wait for the volatility and take a “go with” trade. That potentially puts us towards the all time highs.

What we do have today is the late pullback yesterday to 2147.50, so watch that today.

So the plan for index futures today and the coming week is:

Plan

Watch out for the market taking a breather because that could happen any time.
If we get decent volume, and signs of volatility, take “go with trades” with a presumption of a decent run
Be wary as we approach 2104 & 2183.74
Let the range play as we get to the extremes. There’s risk of a lot of nudging around there.
If the range breaks, look for the market to fall back to the range and hold (not necessarily all the way), expect good participation on a continuation trade if that holds.
If the range doesn’t break – play to the other extreme.
Weekly Numbers
Range 2028.50 -> 2170.75
Value 2089.75 -> 2168.25
S1 – 2063.25, R1 – 2112

Daily Numbers
Range 2028.50 / 2118.25 -> 2166.75
Value 2136.75 -> 2166.75
Globex 2155.25 -> 2170.75

Settlement – 2160.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; November 10th, 2016 at 03:23 AM.
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Old November 14th, 2016, 06:10 AM   #908 (permalink)
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14th November

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As discussed last week, after the "Trump move" - we still haven't confirmed whether we can actually escape the range we've been in since the summer time - 2104-2183.75. So still presuming the range and on a break looking for the range to hold on a retest.

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From a weekly perspective, we can see a step at 52.50, so looking for a reaction there to bring in speculators.

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Also below us is the high of Friday, which we came close to a few times. So again, that's a price to watch on any pushes down.

Plan
- Presuming 2104-2183.75 range is still in effect
- Looking for support at 62.25 & 52.50 if we do move down
- Will presume any moves out of the range are headfakes until we hold a test back towards the range (then will play the continuation)
- Other than that - looking to take early trades once the range is fairly clear, relying on the day to put in a decent range as has been the case the past few months

Weekly Numbers
Range 2028.50 -> 2170.75
Value 2089.75 -> 2168.25
S1 – 2063.25, R1 – 2112


Daily Numbers

Range 2148.50 -> 2162.25 / 2170.50
Value 2153.75 -> 2160.25
Globex 2163.25 -> 2174.50

Settlement – 2161.50

Today only - 2152.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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Old November 15th, 2016, 06:52 AM   #909 (permalink)
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15th November

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To save typing - this from yesterday:


Quoting 
As discussed last week, after the "Trump move" - we still haven't confirmed whether we can actually escape the range we've been in since the summer time - 2104-2183.75. So still presuming the range and on a break looking for the range to hold on a retest.

It's looking pretty indeterminate based on yesterdays action.

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This too:


Quoting 
From a weekly perspective, we can see a step at 52.50, so looking for a reaction there to bring in speculators.

We held 52.50 yesterday (well, 52.25) but the reaction wasn't convincing, looking for follow through today. Objectively, this is how crappy weeks often start - trapped around Fridays range on the Monday. So we need to get out or we have a high probability of a directionless week.

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Not much to say on a daily basis as we just traded within Fridays range (incl globex)

Plan
- Expectations low going into today. Past 3 settlements have been extremely close.
- Yesterday was the 3rd consecutive inside day 2146.75-2180.50 is the range from 11/11 that these days are sitting inside 'inside' - so really any trade inside there is a coin toss
- The exception to that would be a hold off 52.50/52.25 again or yesterdays 'technical' levels
- I can't get excited about playing in the middle, although 80.50 does seem a way off, so I'm going to give myself max 3 attempts at a "follow momentum" trades within the 46.75-80.50 area today (unless we an extreme)
- This plan changes if we break out of this 46.75-80.50 range or test one of the extremes


Weekly Numbers
Range 2028.50 -> 2170.75
Value 2089.75 -> 2168.25
S1 – 2063.25, R1 – 2112


Daily Numbers

Range 2152.25 -> 2168 / 2174.50
Value 2156.25 -> 2163.25
Globex 2158.50 -> 2169.75

Settlement – 2160.50

Today only - 2152.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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Old November 17th, 2016, 07:21 AM   #910 (permalink)
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17th November

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Volume dropping off. No great shock given the way the week started. We can't escape last Friday's range. On Monday we said


Quoting 
We held 52.50 yesterday (well, 52.25) but the reaction wasn't convincing, looking for follow through today. Objectively, this is how crappy weeks often start - trapped around Fridays range on the Monday. So we need to get out or we have a high probability of a directionless week.

And so far we are playing that out, although we did have a brief pop through the high but interest was pretty low.

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We are still holding the upper distribution from last week, so eyes still on 52.50 if we have a retrace.

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We can see the poke through the all time high yesterday and the reaction was pretty pathetic. In fact, the day session couldn't even retest it.

Plan
- A sit and watch it play our morning - that move off the highs could gather momentum and see us sell off down to 2100
- It's entirely possible that we take another test up there and possibly blow through it. I think we haven't come off enough to say we are done to the upside. There's no volume either side.
- So eyes on momentum, volume. Expectation still low overall, just looking for people to hand their hats on a move

Weekly Numbers
Range 2152.25 -> 2185
Value 2160.25-> 2175.25
S1 – 2063.25, R1 – 2112


Daily Numbers
Range 2161.50 / 2175.50 -> 2183 / 2185
Value 2178.25 -> 2182.75
Globex 2168.75-> 2178

Settlement – 2172.75

Today only - 2152.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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