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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #891 (permalink)
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6th October



Sigh.... still in the range. Yesterday was quite painful. Still waiting for the break.



There's nothing to plan really - we have held yesterdays range overnight but that doesn't help us much because playing off those extremes would theoretically just give us more chop.

Plan
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

No levels today - I don't think there's much point!

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  #892 (permalink)
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10th October




Still no change. Non directional market.




The bulk of trading last week was 47.50-56.50, so an eye out for that.




As before - we still have the potential for a good daily range despite being directionless overall. This is a bit variable though and we could very easily have a 10 point range. So we can't RELY on a good range

Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2136 -> 2164
Value 2146.50 -> 2157.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2138 -> 2159.25 / 2161.50
Value 2141.75 -> 2151.25
Globex 2148.50 -> 2155

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Today only 2147.50, 2156.50

Settlement – 2146.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #893 (permalink)
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11th October



Still in a rut - but always be on the lookout for a break.



Yesterday was a holiday, so I'm keeping an eye on the same levels as yesterday.



Which means for "Yesterdays levels" I'm looking at Friday and for "overnight" I'm looking at everything since. Not that these levels have been hugely helpful in the past few weeks.


Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2136 -> 2164
Value 2146.50 -> 2157.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2138 -> 2159.25 / 2161.50
Value 2141.75 -> 2151.25
Globex 2148.50 -> 2163.75

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Today only 2147.50, 2156.50

Settlement – not using it today

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #894 (permalink)
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12th October



Excitement! We had a good sell off yesterday with a lot of chances to get on board. We dipped down past the 2 week low and we had very good volume.

So now we are at a decision point (the low of the past 2 weeks), so we can expect decent participation if the range low holds and even better participation if we carry on down.



One thing to look out for if we do move up is us topping out at 48 (the bottom of where most trading last week was)



Also - an eye on the late pullback/value high from yesterday (2139.50).

Plan
- Should be a decent day, we have broken the 2 week low (2132.75) - so go with trades away from that area to the upside or downside. Don't engage in that area
- To the upside, eyes on 2148 as resistance
- To the downside, targeting 2100
- I'd be amazed if this was a slow day but be aware of any chop off the open, there's no need to get in right at the start and if we do have a good run, it will be OK to let the market show it's hand first
- Eyes on yesterdays low for a hold too

Weekly Numbers
Range 2121.75 -> 2163.50
Value 2135> 2163.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2121.75 -> 2153.50/ 2160.75
Value 2124.25 -> 2139.15
Globex 2129.75 -> 2140.75

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Today only 2148, 2139.50

Settlement – 2134.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #895 (permalink)
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14th October

The past few weeks price action has been quite challenging to those that trade the US indices. It really highlights the need to stay on your toes and adapt as a trader. Thursday was a case in point.



On Wednesday we took a big drop with a lot of volume. One way Price Action for much of the day. We pushed past the lows that’d held in the past 3 weeks and closed above them. The move down was high volume, showing a lot of commitment. So a big down day. We ended the day an inflection point both from a 3 week perspective but also a longer term level (the blue horizontal line). That would all point to decent volume and range the following day. Traders would start Thursday expecting a little excitement regardless of whether we recovered the losses or added to them.

But no – we had a very slow, range bound day session. Participation was down, nobody was really interested.

So if like me, you were waiting for the move to happen. You were disappointed but that doesn’t mean you couldn’t trade. It just means the likely scenarios mapped before going into the market didn’t pan out and you had to be a bit more reactive.

If we look back at the past few weeks, we’ve been in a range. A directionless market but still one that on the whole has had some decent trading ranges. There have been a few days amongst those days where the volume and volatility simply dried up. This action is quite unusual. What it does help is with is a couple of things:

It shows us we really need to react to the medium term market state – the market changes day by day but it also changes week by week. We can (to an extent) expect the medium term (weeks) behavior to continue.
We can’t really expect a totally fixed approach to the market to work. So we have to be flexible, be reactive. We can map out scenarios and trade them but we have to let recent history be our guide.
On any day – the market may just decide to buck the trend of recent behavior and do whatever it wants to.
So over the coming week. We can start off with the expectation each day of a decent intraday range. We have more reliable action towards the extremes. We can also expect that the occasional day simply won’t play ball. Then the low volume should guide us. At some point in the future, the market will switch gears and this will no longer be the case. So our approach to this market at this time is very much unique to this market at this time.

As well as trading your plan, keep an eye out for look for signs that we are now out of this phase and into the next phase of Price Action.



We can better see the anomaly low range day on Thursday. In addition, the low of the past 3 weeks was 2132.75. So there is a chance that this will hold and if it does, we can expect that we’ll hit 2100 and potentially enter a new phase of price action. Traders may see this as the range of the past 3 weeks has broken and that we now have opportunity to the downside. That is scenario 1. Scenario 2 is that the bottom of the range is really 2100 and that we are just going to carry on moving sideways from 2100 to 2171.

In terms of actual entry/exit points. Those at the extreme of the ranges are a better prospect but we have tended to open days in the middle of the range, so going with moves to the extremes has been a good initial play.

These are testing times but keep in mind that the most reliable play has been to wait for the order flow and price action to confirm a move with strength is under way and to jump on board when it does.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2107.75 -> 2163.50
Value 2110.75 -> 2140.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2107.75 -> 2132.25
Value 2108.75 -> 2125.25
Globex 2122.25 -> 2133.50

Today only 2132.75
Settlement – 2126.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #896 (permalink)
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17th October



The market went sideways after the drop. I don't think think the long term picture gives us a setup unless we move to 2100 again. At that point we are at a make or break point again.



Zooming in a little, we can see that we are still below major distribution of trade last week. So if we test 2525 after the open, I'll be looking to see if sellers come in there.



I'll also be watching for a bounce at Fridays day session low - 2126.50. Other than that the plan is basically the same while we are ranging...

Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2107.75-> 2163.50
Value 2116.25 -> 2141.75
S1 - 2102, R1 - 2157.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2122.25/ 2126.50 -> 2143.25
Value 2127.25 -> 2136.25
Globex 2116.75 -> 2128.75

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Today only 2125

Settlement – 2127

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #897 (permalink)
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18th October



A low volume day yesterday. We got to the 2134.75 level - which is around where last weeks lows are, so we could see some participation to the downside from here.



We are also close to the top of the main distribution from last week (2137) - so wary as we approach that.



Yesterday was a tough slog. So hopefully well get something more interesting today. I presume this is going to hold until the election now.

Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2107.75-> 2163.50
Value 2116.25 -> 2141.75
S1 - 2102, R1 - 2157.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2116.75 / 2117.75-> 2130
Value 2120 -> 2125.75
Globex 2120.25 -> 2135.50

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Today only 2134.75, 2137

Settlement – 2122.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #898 (permalink)
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19th November



Volume tapering off and not much news today. Middle of the range too. So low expectations today.



We tested the high of the major distribution from last week, if we can get through the 42 area we might find ourselves free to move up a little more. An eye on that.



Yesterday was better than it looks here. Right off the open we traded 5k contracts at the open price and 300 above. An immediate ceiling on the action and a good short. So we had an early signal and a few decent places to jump on board in the run down. So we had our 'go with" trade. Still - at that point we were pretty much done.

Same plan as every day during this lull...

Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2107.75-> 2163.50
Value 2116.25 -> 2141.75
S1 - 2102, R1 - 2157.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2120.25/ 2129 -> 2139.25 / 2139.75
Value 2133 -> 2138.50
Globex 2126.25 -> 2135.00

Today only 2142

Settlement – 2132

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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  #899 (permalink)
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Market is slow, kids are off school - so I'm going to bow out for the rest of the week and hit the beach.

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  #900 (permalink)
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31st October.

Excuse my absence, I had the flu. Not that I missed much by the look of things. I had an article in my inbox today which very nicely sums up the pre-election "holding pattern" we are in right now....

Macro Event Trading Article

That's a great article if you are holding into the election or wondering what will cause volatility in the next 8 days (hint: Trump).




We are still in the holding pattern, having trouble to the upside but I don't see that as a hard ceiling at this point.



Friday range was over 20 points, so whilst the market is choppy, we still have a good intraday range.


Plan
- A balanced market - so go with trades to the end of the range, then fades at the extremes of price OR value.
- News risk is high considering the Feds announcements on Friday
- Still looking for early trades
- an eye on the longer term range means anything below 2011 is worth fading for a long

Weekly Numbers
Range 2107.75-> 2163.50
Value 2116.25 -> 2141.75
S1 - 2102, R1 - 2157.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2120.25/ 2129 -> 2135.25
Value 2118.50 -> 2132
Globex 2114.75 -> 2130.50

Settlement – 2123.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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