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DTs Pre Market Prep

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Neo1 View Post
...Visa run?

Sort of - after 18 or so years here, I find my self in a situation where my ex wife (well not ex yet but seperated for 13 years) will now not sign for my marriage visa. Getting a divorce here can be problematic....

I could get a guardian visa for my lovely 6 year old daughter with my new wife (well, she will be my new wife 15 mins after my divorce) but the local Amphur office needs to interview the child and they won't do that till she's 7, which is October.

I can't get a guardian visa for my 14 year old that lives with me because I need his mother to assist....


puma View Post
This demands a follow-up post with details

Picture me in a bar surrounded by women all trying to kick my ass at Connect Four and having to buy me a drink when they lose. Emotions were running high and I was called an asshole too many times to count, apparently for 'being sneaky'. For those in the know - Connect Four skills are signs of a miss-spent youth in Thailand. Suffice to say I am a Zen Master (and no longer welcome at a certain bar in Phnom Penh).


xplorer View Post
Do you play in the casino, out of curiosity?

No - last time I was in a Casino was at Sentosa, Singapore. I used to love playing Black Jack but I think trading killed gambling for me. As I walk round now, I see nothing but the fact that if I sit there long enough I will lose. Mind you, the fact the minimum was $50 a hand didn't help...


londonkid View Post
haha, it's a story that needs to be told. I would love to visit Cambodia, also myanmar is on the list and go back to thailand someday, beautiful places, beautiful people.

Cambodians I've met have been as nice as people anywhere else in the world if you are nice to them. It is a poor country, so you have to keep your wits about you.

Anyway - upshot is I may not get the 90 day tourist visa I want. Not sure what will happen at that point but it may mean I have to enrol in a school in Thailand to improve my Thai and get an education visa until my little sweetheart turns 7.

That could mean weeks in Cambodia with 4 pairs of underpants, 3 pairs of shorts, 2 pairs of jeans and a handful of t-shirts.

Either way, I will try to make the most of it ;-)

On the bright side, I have been offered drugs numerous times in the street here and whilst I don't partake, I'll take it as a back-handed compliment that at 46, I don't look like an old fart...

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DionysusToast View Post
On the bright side, I have been offered drugs numerous times in the street here and whilst I don't partake, I'll take it as a back-handed compliment that at 46, I don't look like an old fart...

I'm sure you don't - old farts tend to post same stuff twice

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xplorer View Post
I'm sure you don't - old farts tend to post same stuff twice

lol - they probably need twice as much too!

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DionysusToast View Post
Sort of - after 18 or so years here, I find my self in a situation where my ex wife (well not ex yet but seperated for 13 years) will now not sign for my marriage visa. Getting a divorce here can be problematic....

I could get a guardian visa for my lovely 6 year old daughter with my new wife (well, she will be my new wife 15 mins after my divorce) but the local Amphur office needs to interview the child and they won't do that till she's 7, which is October.

I can't get a guardian visa for my 14 year old that lives with me because I need his mother to assist....



Picture me in a bar surrounded by women all trying to kick my ass at Connect Four and having to buy me a drink when they lose. Emotions were running high and I was called an asshole too many times to count, apparently for 'being sneaky'. For those in the know - Connect Four skills are signs of a miss-spent youth in Thailand. Suffice to say I am a Zen Master (and no longer welcome at a certain bar in Phnom Penh).



No - last time I was in a Casino was at Sentosa, Singapore. I used to love playing Black Jack but I think trading killed gambling for me. As I walk round now, I see nothing but the fact that if I sit there long enough I will lose. Mind you, the fact the minimum was $50 a hand didn't help...



Cambodians I've met have been as nice as people anywhere else in the world if you are nice to them. It is a poor country, so you have to keep your wits about you.

Anyway - upshot is I may not get the 90 day tourist visa I want. Not sure what will happen at that point but it may mean I have to enrol in a school in Thailand to improve my Thai and get an education visa until my little sweetheart turns 7.

That could mean weeks in Cambodia with 4 pairs of underpants, 3 pairs of shorts, 2 pairs of jeans and a handful of t-shirts.

Either way, I will try to make the most of it ;-)

On the bright side, I have been offered drugs numerous times in the street here and whilst I don't partake, I'll take it as a back-handed compliment that at 46, I don't look like an old fart...

cant you make a 'donation' to the local mayor to get things sorted.

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londonkid View Post
cant you make a 'donation' to the local mayor to get things sorted.

Not right now - after the coup, there has been quite the clampdown.

That whole thing is a double-edged sword anyway....

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DionysusToast View Post
Not right now - after the coup, there has been quite the clampdown.

That whole thing is a double-edged sword anyway....

yeah I am guessing if you go that route you are then a 'marked' man.

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londonkid View Post
yeah I am guessing if you go that route you are then a 'marked' man.

You'll always be in someone's pocket or looking behind your back. Maybe not on something trivial like a traffic fine but on your ability to stay in a country, it ain't worth it.
the

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DionysusToast View Post
You'll always be in someone's pocket or looking behind your back. Maybe not on something trivial like a traffic fine but on your ability to stay in a country, it ain't worth it.
the

i have had similar experience in poor countries. You have to be very careful how you are perceived by the locals, sometimes it can be draining. If you give anyone any leverage on your position they will look to exploit it.

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londonkid View Post
i have had similar experience in poor countries. You have to be very careful how you are perceived by the locals, sometimes it can be draining. If you give anyone any leverage on your position they will look to exploit it.

I think it depends on the contex (doesn't everything? ). I went to Cuba 18 years ago and when coming back, the passport control guy at the airport asked - quite nonchalantly - for a handout. I gave him 20$, reasoning that if I had refused I might have got delayed and missed my flight back.

In some similar situations it's probably worth weighing the options and go with your gut.

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DT, how dangerous is Cambodia.?

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DionysusToast View Post
Sort of - after 18 or so years here, I find my self in a situation where my ex wife (well not ex yet but seperated for 13 years) will now not sign for my marriage visa. Getting a divorce here can be problematic....

I could get a guardian visa for my lovely 6 year old daughter with my new wife (well, she will be my new wife 15 mins after my divorce) but the local Amphur office needs to interview the child and they won't do that till she's 7, which is October.

I can't get a guardian visa for my 14 year old that lives with me because I need his mother to assist....



Picture me in a bar surrounded by women all trying to kick my ass at Connect Four and having to buy me a drink when they lose. Emotions were running high and I was called an asshole too many times to count, apparently for 'being sneaky'. For those in the know - Connect Four skills are signs of a miss-spent youth in Thailand. Suffice to say I am a Zen Master (and no longer welcome at a certain bar in Phnom Penh).



No - last time I was in a Casino was at Sentosa, Singapore. I used to love playing Black Jack but I think trading killed gambling for me. As I walk round now, I see nothing but the fact that if I sit there long enough I will lose. Mind you, the fact the minimum was $50 a hand didn't help...



Cambodians I've met have been as nice as people anywhere else in the world if you are nice to them. It is a poor country, so you have to keep your wits about you.

Anyway - upshot is I may not get the 90 day tourist visa I want. Not sure what will happen at that point but it may mean I have to enrol in a school in Thailand to improve my Thai and get an education visa until my little sweetheart turns 7.

That could mean weeks in Cambodia with 4 pairs of underpants, 3 pairs of shorts, 2 pairs of jeans and a handful of t-shirts.

Either way, I will try to make the most of it ;-)

On the bright side, I have been offered drugs numerous times in the street here and whilst I don't partake, I'll take it as a back-handed compliment that at 46, I don't look like an old fart...


If they won't give you a 90 day in Cambodia, and will only give you a 15 day. Then you could try getting a 90 day in Laos( Vientiane).

I was living in Thailand during the coup, and from my experience( and from stories heard) you have more chance in getting a 90 day Visa from Laos than Cambodia. They cracked down more on Visas issued from Cambodia because that was where alot of the "overstayers"/ illegal workers would go to get their 30 day Visa exempt stamp, instead of a proper Visa.

The other option could be to fly in and out of Thailand and get a 30 day upon entry( eg BKK to KL to BKK). You should still get away with doing that multiple times.

* I haven't stayed up with the latest Visa sagas in the last 12 months, that was my experience from 2014/2015

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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KahunaDog View Post
DT, how dangerous is Cambodia.?

Not so much now I'm not there. I didn't have any problems but if you walked around drunk with a pocket full of cash at 3am, I'm fairly sure someone would relieve you of it.


Neo1 View Post
If they won't give you a 90 day in Cambodia, and will only give you a 15 day. Then you could try getting a 90 day in Laos( Vientiane).

I was living in Thailand during the coup, and from my experience( and from stories heard) you have more chance in getting a 90 day Visa from Laos than Cambodia. They cracked down more on Visas issued from Cambodia because that was where alot of the "overstayers"/ illegal workers would go to get their 30 day Visa exempt stamp, instead of a proper Visa.

The other option could be to fly in and out of Thailand and get a 30 day upon entry( eg BKK to KL to BKK). You should still get away with doing that multiple times.

* I haven't stayed up with the latest Visa sagas in the last 12 months, that was my experience from 2014/2015

All turned out fine in the end.... Thanks for that though.

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23rd June

Today has huge news risk. That means at any time during the day, we could see exit poll data that shifts the market suddenly in any direction.

So to me, the plan is to stay on the sidelines and wait for that to occur. If it doesn't, then no trade. If it does, I'll attempt to ride the move.

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24th

An interesting day ahead for sure. I'm sitting to one side but instead of explaining why, let me relate a story to you.

A London based trader called me yesterday and asked how I'd approach the market if there was indeed a Brexit. I told him it's best avoided for various reasons. Mostly because of the brutal pullbacks that occur at volatile periods like this.

Now - as I mentioned, this guy is in London, so he stayed awake late and traded once the count started coming in.

He called me today at 11:30am London time - after a night without sleep (apart from falling asleep at the mouse once). The upshot of his trading - he didn't lose any money. He also didn't make any money. His broker made money with all the trades he did. But he broke even.

Basically, the brutal pullbacks took him out, even though he was right about the direction.

So if you do plan to trade today - keep this in mind! Last night might look easy on your 15 min

He's French too - so I told him he'd better pack his bags and get out of Dodge ;-)

Pete

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DionysusToast View Post
24th

An interesting day ahead for sure. I'm sitting to one side but instead of explaining why, let me relate a story to you.

A London based trader called me yesterday and asked how I'd approach the market if there was indeed a Brexit. I told him it's best avoided for various reasons. Mostly because of the brutal pullbacks that occur at volatile periods like this.

Now - as I mentioned, this guy is in London, so he stayed awake late and traded once the count started coming in.

He called me today at 11:30am London time - after a night without sleep (apart from falling asleep at the mouse once). The upshot of his trading - he didn't lose any money. He also didn't make any money. His broker made money with all the trades he did. But he broke even.

Basically, the brutal pullbacks took him out, even though he was right about the direction.

So if you do plan to trade today - keep this in mind! Last night might look easy on your 15 min

He's French too - so I told him he'd better pack his bags and get out of Dodge ;-)

Pete

I've learned with my own money not to trade this kind of highly volatile events. In most cases you get trapped into that trade-after-trade cycle and, as you say, who comes out on top is your broker.

I think the more experienced and capitalised traders can benefit from this volatility but people with relatively few years trading under their belt would do best by sitting on their hands.

EDIT: of course I'm not suggesting you are inexperienced, and it is perhaps telling that some of the experienced traders such as yourself take the position of 'no position'...

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DionysusToast View Post
24th

Basically, the brutal pullbacks took him out, even though he was right about the direction.

So if you do plan to trade today - keep this in mind! Last night might look easy on your 15 min

He's French too - so I told him he'd better pack his bags and get out of Dodge ;-)

Pete

Yes sir, it looks easy on the left side of the chart

Cheers, ride safe and keep the rubber side down

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27th June



Thursday was a ban on exit polls - so no real news then.

Friday we saw a wild ride overnight but relatively sedate in the day time.

For the next few days, I'm "100% non-technical" and looking out to exploit/not lose money on "politicians mouth syndrome". Right now EU, German, UK and US politicians can easily send this market flying with an off the cuff comment. That could go either way.

Friday was pitiful in terms of leadership in the UK. What the markets need is for some semblance that the UK government isn't running around like a headless chicken. So far, Merkel has been conciliatory but there's not really been much out of the UK government other than 2 major the parties turning on themselves.

So I don't see the point of being in a trade unless it is off the back of a strong news driven move. Mostly because I know that once I get in off a technical level, there could be a strong news-driven move against me.

In terms of longer term outlook, we didn't really break out of our intermediate term range yet (white box). If the market does collapse, then I think time is better spent looking for good long term positions. So I'll most likely spend my trading day looking for stocks that got oversold in the past few days.

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28th June



As we drop, it's worth bearing in mind that bargains will appear. I can't quite wrap my head around Capita going down so much because if government work increases (which it will to handle the Brexit), then Capita stand to get some of the contracts. Airlines have never been the best stocks but Whitbread, Associated Foods, Domino's Pizza are now in my portfolio.

Not that this is investment advice.

I'm buying on the way down. I would love to see the S&P at 1700 as I think that would represent a massive opportunity. I fear like many dips of late, the market just won't be able to gather significant momentum and wont give us that sort of opportunity.



The low of our medium term range was 2012.75. I'm looking for sellers to step in around that area if we continue up. If that happens, I hope we will get another good run down.



Overnight we have stayed in yesterdays day session range. So we could be stabilizing and that means looking at more technical levels. After yesterdays drop 1996.75 acted as resistance. So I'll have an eye on that if we come down to there today.

Plan
- Look for signs of the market stabilizing
- Still with an ear to the UK/European news
- look for shorts at 2012.75 area and expect good downside participation if it holds
- Also look for a reaction at 1996.75 as well as yesterdays extremes/value
- Not in a hurry to place a trade, look for momentum to build and then join. If no momentum, no trade as I want to be onside ASAP because of the news risk

Weekly Numbers
Range (not interested in the weeklies after Fridays drop)
Value
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 1981.50 -> 2010.75 / 2022.50
Value 1984.50 -> 1995.50
Globex 1981.50 -> 2008.75

Settlement - 1985

Today only 1996.75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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29th June



We are back into our range, volume is high but dropping. I'm still wary of news events but now presuming we are travelling to the top of the range.



In terms of the weeks profile, we have a larger distribution from 2001.25 to around 2014. I'll be watching that area if we move down.



Yesterday was a choppy day with a very late breakout and really not much on the table in the first swing off the open. I was waiting int he AM for a break but gave up in the end.

Plan
- Biased upside, so looking for a downside test with volume following to the upside
- This is a decent move up overnight, so wary of an adjustment down off the open
- Still looking to catch a momentum move to clear my entry price quickly (so no range plays), to limit the potential impact of any unexpected news

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2043.25
Value 1993.50 - 2029
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 1981.50 / 2006 -> 2027
Value 2008.25 -> 2018.25
Globex 2022.50 -> 2043.25

Settlement - 2028.50

Today only 2001.25, 2014

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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30th June



Today should be interesting. It's the end of the month, so it's quite possible we get an end of month push up. More importantly, the stock markets seem to have brushed off the Brexit. As we approach the highs again, it may be with the Brexit decided and shrugged off (for now), that we get a pop that now takes us to new highs and onwards towards 2200.

Not necessarily in one day but we may be in the right conditions to escape the medium term range.

Note that volume is declining as we move up but it's still above average with over 2 million traded yesterday.



The weekly profile doesn't help us much.



We can see a nice march up, we may need to take a breather and we also have to consider the possibility that as we are close to the top of our medium term range, we could be done to the upside for now.

Plan
- Still long biased
- looking for plays off yesterdays range/value range to give us more participation than a straight up move off the open.
- a straight up off the open will be played more cautiously than a test and bounce.
- Taking care as we get towards 2091. Will not take longs into it but would take longs after we get through it
- If we move down, only participate downside on excessive volume - in other words to show the top of the range has really failed with serious volume
- looking to scale in if we can breach the all time highs

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2074.74
Value 1981.50 - 2029
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 2022.75 / 2042.25 -> 2064.50
Value 2051.50 -> 2064.50
Globex 2056.50 -> 2074.75

Settlement - 2066,75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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1st July



We are now at the top of the medium term range. So looking to see if we can really pop the highs or if we'll roll over to the bottom of the range.

It's 4th July on Monday though - so it may well be a lackluster day because people might be on vacation today.



As we can see, still a steady march up, but for the first time, there's been no progression in the Globex session. That's more of a heads up than a point at failure but the top of our range is 90.75 and we topped out pretty close to it yesterday and overnight.

Plan
- Proceed with caution as volume might be low today
- As we are at an area the top of the range, we could see a lot of nudging around, let that resolve before jumping in.
- best scenario - build volume in a range and then play in the direction of a break
- would also consider a long off a pullback to yesterdays VAL

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2091.25
Value 1981.50 - 2059
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 2056.50 / 2061 -> 2091.25
Value 2071.50 -> 2091
Globex 2081.50 -> 2089.50

Settlement - 2090.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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5th July



We are at the top of our medium term range (white box), so as usual, the best trade will be once that appears to have been resolved and speculators jump on one side.

With Brexit behind us, we may now be able to move on to new highs to 2200. Otherwise it's a drop and carry on with the range.

At the top here, it will obviously be a trickier trade because whilst the tops of the range remains unresolved, we'll have less clear direction.



Last week was thin all the way up, so I'm not really too bothered about any weekly levels this week.



Today is the first day after a holiday. So I'm considering everything from Sunday to now as "overnight" and looking at Friday as "yesterday". We are already well below Fridays low but that's on low volume action, so I don't want to read too much into it but we do have a chance of an initial pop up off the open.

Plan
- No bias as we are at the top of the range, waiting for it to be resolved.
- Unless volume comes in off the open, lay off for the first 15 mins and see what develops
- As long as the area stays unresolved (no high volume moves), look to play off the intraday volume profile and Fridays levels
- Basically, wait for the market to show it's hand

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2100.75
Value 1981.50 - 2064
S1 - 2018.25, R1 - 2137.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2081.50 / 2089 -> 2100.75
Value 2092.50-> 2097.50
Globex 2082 -> 2104.75

Settlement - 2096.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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6th July



We are coming down off the top of the range but we really didn't see major selling yesterday. Volume was decent 1.8m contracts but it just didn't feel like speculators were jumping in short.

So I have a short bias but I'm not "all in" on that.




As you can see, we worked our way down overnight on Monday evening but yesterday was quite a rangebound day, there was no sign that sellers came in force. We've made some more moves to the downside so far last night and we are sitting above last weeks value high at 2064.

So I'm half decided between the top of the range not being resolved and the possibility we may just grind down to the bottom of the range. So for me, the safest thing to do:

Plan
- ready to short of we break 2064 or overnight low and we see some volume. Look for a good run down in that case
- as per yesterday, if we don't see a break - let the market play out. If we see a range, play the headfakes and then the eventual break

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2100.75
Value 1981.50 - 2064
S1 - 2018.25, R1 - 2137.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2072.40 / 2086.50 -> 2104.75
Value 2075 -> 2081
Globex 2067.50 -> 2085.75

Settlement - 2082.75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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7th July



As we can see we’ve been in this range on the S&P Futures since March. There’s been no real fundamental reason for us to break out, so each time we hit the top, we roll back down. We can see that the post-Brexit move did little more than test the range the S&P Futures have been in since March. I’d normally have a strong short bias to the low of the range at this point but I do feel we have a chance of a move to 2200 because of the way the market shrugged off the Brexit news. The market didn’t know how the vote would go, now it does and so maybe that’s enough uncertainty off the table to allow the S&P Futures to rise once more.



Here we have the Weekly Market Profiles (TPO Charts) for the S&P Futures. We can see that the trading is very uniform this week which lends itself to fading the extremes. We have a decent range, so I will not be fading based on the price hitting the extremes but rather let other traders do the heavy lifting and then jump on board once the extreme has been “shaken out” and direction is clear.



Yesterday we had a typical probe down through the overnight low. It’s normal for the S&P Futures to do that and typical of the sort of “wait for intraday action” to develop we get when there’s no clear commitment either way.

Plan
  • We are watching for signs of clear commitment from speculators either side to break the range. Obviously there may be a test of a key level first (we are close to the highs after all) but it should be shown with a large swing in the market with exceptional volume.
  • Pay attention at yesterdays high/low/value high/value low
  • Until that happens – and it may not happen for a few days, we have to use yesterdays and developing intraday levels to play off and not have too high an expectancy of a large range.
  • Be patient. There is no clear bias at this point.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2065.75 – 2104.75
Value 2076.75 – 2101.75
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers

Range 2065.75 -> 2093.75
Value 2074.50 -> 2092
Globex 2088.50-> 2094.50

Settlement – 2094

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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8th July



For today, read yesterday..... still at the top of the range, and no break either way. It's Friday too, 7AM EST and we are 60,000 contracts below average.

So whilst we do have a tightly coiled week this week, I'm not too hopeful that we'll see that energy released today.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Here we have the Weekly Market Profiles (TPO Charts) for the S&P Futures. We can see that the trading is very uniform this week which lends itself to fading the extremes. We have a decent range, so I will not be fading based on the price hitting the extremes but rather let other traders do the heavy lifting and then jump on board once the extreme has been “shaken out” and direction is clear.

Same today!



Overnight action has been within yesterdays range, which again indicates little direction from the Asian/European session. So again, it doesn't point to a high probability of a break

Plan
- Bias neutral - if volume is weak, shorts above 2100-2104.75, longs below yesterdays low and 2070
- if it does break out, look to follow the move as we are in a tight week
- if we have a really slow start and still slow at 11am EST, I'm done for the week. It may pop in the afternoon but I'm a morning trader.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2104.75
Value 2079.75 – 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2081.75 -> 2102
Value 2082.50 -> 2094.25
Globex 2087.50-> 2097.50

Settlement – 2092

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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11th July



We finally got a decent pop upside, so hopefully we are now on our way to 2200. So for me the game today is to look for signs of continuation to the upside.

Ideally, we'd see a pullback to the old highs which is really anywhere from 2096.50-2110.75. That in my opinion would give speculators more confidence to jump in on the long side.



Based on last weeks profile, 2101.25 saw a very big step in the profile with very little trading above, so a fall back to that area would be idea.



Not much to get from the daily profiles but I will be watching Fridays highs/lows/valuer

Plan
- We may fail downside, in which case it'll be downward move with high volume
- if not presume any downside move is a test & that a test off a key level will bring in volume to the long side
- any move up off the open could be a grind we have already tested Fridays value area, so our test may already be done. If so, we might not get the same response as an intraday test but prepared to just jump on any up move off the open.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2125.50
Value 2077.25– 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2087.50 / 2103.50 -> 2125.50
Value 2109 -> 2122
Globex 2120 -> 2133

Settlement – 2120.50

Today only 2096.50-2110.75 (area for pullback)

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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12th July



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We finally got a decent pop upside, so hopefully we are now on our way to 2200. So for me the game today is to look for signs of continuation to the upside.

Ideally, we'd see a pullback to the old highs which is really anywhere from 2096.50-2110.75. That in my opinion would give speculators more confidence to jump in on the long side.

Same deal again today. Yesterday we pulled back to the prior days high and from there we saw speculators jump in.




We still have 2101.25 to look out for below, so if there is a larger pullback, I'll be watching there for support.



The profiles show what we'd expect, progression upwards. Obviously we'll still swing both ways intraday but I'll be watching the regular daily values (high/low/value) to see if buyers step in.



This is yesterdays action. You can see the green line at the bottom, that's the prior days high. The bottom frame contains the cumulative delta. What you can see
- big shift up in delta as we move up from the green line
- large amount of contracts traded in the push up from the green line (168,000)
- large size swing in the push up from the green line (36 ticks).

That is typical of speculators jumping on a move and what this prep is all about.

- Watching areas other people will have their eye on
- looking out for lots of speculators to jump on board when the level holds
- taking a chunk out of that move.

Lesser moves do occur when we move away from less popular levels as less people have an eye on those levels.

Plan
- looking for the market to find support at a key level (or thereabouts) and for volume to come in
- upside biased but with an eye on the market taking a break for the day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2125.50
Value 2077.25– 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2120 / 2125.25 > 2136.75
Value 2129.75 -> 2135.75
Globex 2128.50 -> 2141.75

Settlement – 2130.25

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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DionysusToast View Post
12th July



Yesterday we had



Same deal again today. Yesterday we pulled back to the prior days high and from there we saw speculators jump in.




We still have 2101.25 to look out for below, so if there is a larger pullback, I'll be watching there for support.



The profiles show what we'd expect, progression upwards. Obviously we'll still swing both ways intraday but I'll be watching the regular daily values (high/low/value) to see if buyers step in.



This is yesterdays action. You can see the green line at the bottom, that's the prior days high. The bottom frame contains the cumulative delta. What you can see
- big shift up in delta as we move up from the green line
- large amount of contracts traded in the push up from the green line (168,000)
- large size swing in the push up from the green line (36 ticks).

That is typical of speculators jumping on a move and what this prep is all about.

- Watching areas other people will have their eye on
- looking out for lots of speculators to jump on board when the level holds
- taking a chunk out of that move.

Lesser moves do occur when we move away from less popular levels as less people have an eye on those levels.

Plan
- looking for the market to find support at a key level (or thereabouts) and for volume to come in
- upside biased but with an eye on the market taking a break for the day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2125.50
Value 2077.25– 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2120 / 2125.25 > 2136.75
Value 2129.75 -> 2135.75
Globex 2128.50 -> 2141.75

Settlement – 2130.25

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

Awesome Thread you have here Peter - just bumped in to it by a coincidence..... Excellent work

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chrisministeren View Post
Awesome Thread you have here Peter - just bumped in to it by a coincidence..... Excellent work

Thanks for taking time to say that.

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Nothing to do with my prep but here's a musical interlude....

Just to show I have a life outside of trading, here's my little boy (OK - he's 14 and twice my size) playing the drums at his music school this weekend.



He thinks anything over 20 views on YouTube makes him a superstar... so........ he'll get a kick if we can get the count up a bit...

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DionysusToast View Post
Nothing to do with my prep but here's a musical interlude....

Just to show I have a life outside of trading

Oh man! What did you have to say THAT for? I had been picturing you tied to your trading desk, relentlessly pushing buy/sell buttons, when not programming new stuff or answering messages

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xplorer View Post
Oh man! What did you have to say THAT for? I had been picturing you tied to your trading desk, relentlessly pushing buy/sell buttons, when not programming new stuff or answering messages

That's just what I do at home to avoid having to converse with my wife...

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DionysusToast View Post
That's just what I do at home to avoid having to converse with my wife...

You could buy her an Orgone Accumulator. See underlined bits in red here





From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Reich

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13th July



Still moving up, still biased long, still looking for a pullback to a local support level for a push up but also waiting for a more major pullback.



From a weekly perspective we do have a lesser traded area at 2138 and I'm still looking at 2101.25 we had earlier in the week.



Yesterday we had a lot of volume traded overnight from 2139.50->2141 - we extended above that and came down and that overnight area became support but it was very slow and not a lot of commitment.

So we are getting the right sort of reaction but not really with much participation. So we may need a deeper pullback to get long traders excited again.

Plan
- look for local (yesterday/overnight) support levels for a push up
- if we do start to move down, go with but expect support at one of the longer term levels
- let the market play out at first, it is grinding up but starting to feel a little tired

Weekly Numbers
Range 2120 – 2149.25
Value 2121.75 – 2142.75
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2128.50 / 2138.25 -> 2149.25
Value 2143.25-> 2149.25
Globex 2142 -> 2148.75

Settlement – 2145.75

Today only - 2101, 2110.75, 2138

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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14th July

Upside speculation was quite evident in the Order Flow as we broke the highs earlier this week. We have stalled for the moment, so we need to think about what will bring in more speculators to the upside or conversely, what conditions will make people think the move is over.Still moving up, still biased long, still looking for a pullback to a local support level for a push up but also waiting for a more major pullback.




The larger white box shows the range we have been in since Mid March. As we discussed last time, it appears that now the Brexit news has been digested, we’ve finally managed to break out of that range. On a break like this it would be quite normal for us to drop back and test the high of the old range before progressing. The smaller upper white box with a high around 2110.75 looks like a good candidate for that fall back from a long term perspective.




This is the Market Profile for this week. We can see a large distribution built up this week from 2139 to 2149.25. As of writing – 3am EST, there has been a pop up to 2159.50 so far. So now the high of this large distribution is key. If we come back to 2149.25 in the US day session and it holds, we can expect upside order flow imbalance as speculators see the level hold and see opportunity to the upside. Conversely, if we start to trade through it, we can expect to continue to rotate around the 2139-2149.25 range.




Looking at Tuesday and Wednesday daily market profiles, we can see they both look non-directional. This was very different to Monday. We’ll take a look at why Monday was more attractive for speculative trade in a second. First, we can also see the large pop up overnight. We now need to build volume there – if you take a look at the volume traded for a second:




We can see that not much volume has traded (column 2) from 2146.24 to 2155. So if we dip below 2155, there is a good chance we’ll see 2146 fairly quickly. So careful if you are long there.

So the story so far. We have seen a pop through a medium term range, we’ve slowed down over the past 2 days but overnight we are seeing a new pop to the upside. That pop needs to consolidate and we need traders in the US session to support those prices.

A look at Monday’s Order Flow Participation




On Monday we were looking for a test and at point “A” above, we can see we came down and tested the green line, which was the prior days high. This is a level that a lot of day traders look at. You can see that when the level held, many traders jumped in long and by point B, we had traded 168,000 contracts and moved 9 points. In the frame below, we can see a large shift to the upside in the Cumulative Delta (it measures buy market orders minus sell market orders). So we had already broken the high, we came down to an area lots of traders watch and then we saw massive order flow to the upside after it held. This is EXACTLY what we’ll be looking for over the coming days to take continuation trades to the upside. In fact, remember that most days we swing up and down, so it’s what we want to see to the downside too – just that now my bias is long.

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14th July continued from above....

Why was Wednesday Order Flow so Different?




If we look at yesterday, we did not see the same sort of excitement after hitting the low of the day. The early part of the day was indecisive. Basically, we were just trading within yesterdays range. The market chopped around. When we hit the lows, we were just short of the 2139 level in the large distribution from the weekly profile above. So we were basically probing the bottom of a trading range and that’s simply not as exciting. Now- had we popped the top of that trading range, no doubt we’d have seen significant order flow to the upside after the pop. This is counter to most traders instincts – to actually buy a market AFTER a move up. In this case, we did have a trade location at the bottom of the range. But we had to wait a long time for it and it would have been a hard trade to hold onto because of all the counter moves.


Plan

Biased to the upside
Only take short trades if significant selling (imbalanced order flow/high volume) is evident – we still may need to test 2109 before we can get to 2200
Look for a test at the top of the 2 day range (2149.25) and for significant participation upside if we get that
If there is no test, look below for an area of high volume in the profile to play off, don’t expect the same sort of reaction
If we keep these highs into the stock market open, it means the S&P futures have moved way ahead of the stock market and that ‘balance’ needs to be addressed at the open. This could mean an initial move down or just generally whippy action – so it may be better to sit out the first 15 minutes of trade.
Be wary of a rapid drop if we trade below 2155.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2120 – 21.75
Value 2130.25- 2151.75
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2139.50 -> 2150.75 / 2152.25
Value 2143.25 -> 2147.75
Globex 2142.75-> 2161.50

Settlement – 2146

Today only – 2149, 2139

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Great commentary on your posts DT! I am not yet very familiar with market profiling charts, so your daily explanations of an instrument I am familiar with are helping me come up to speed.

Much appreciated

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15th July



Still working upwards but not with much excitement and I'm still looking for us to drop back and test the old highs or build some volume for us to move up from.



After yesterdays move up overnight we basically sat in a range and now we have a triple distribution week. So looking for 2150 for support and if not, I think it's likely we'll start filling out the range. So in that case, we'd be looking to hit 2139 and then rotate upwards.



We can see the big pop up overnight which was followed by fairly poor action and we didn't really get to any significant prices. Today we look set to open slightly lower than yesterdays close.

Plan
- Looking for a pullback to 2150 - if that fails, expect to see 2139 before rotating up - basically just filling in the weeks profile
- if we move up off the open, will be looking to go with any volume that comes in above yesterdays high
- not to interested in going long into yesterdays day session high (2163) on a move up from the open - need to
- wary of a headfake above 2163
- end of the week - could be dull...

Weekly Numbers
Range 2120 – 2168
Value 2135.75- 2165.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2142.75 / 2152.75 -> 2163 / 2168
Value 2156.50 -> 2161.50
Globex 2142.75-> 2159

Settlement – 2157.25

Today only – 2150, 2139

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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18th July



We have run out of steam to the upside. So now we wait for a break. Looking for headfakes/probes out and trying to discern if they are breaks or not.



We can see the upper of 3 distributions starts at about 2151.50. So anywhere from 2150 to there, I'll be looking for the market to hold.

If we get through 49, I'm expecting us to work our way down to 39 but that would not necessarily mean we are done to the upside. 62.50 is where volume tapers off above us, so the fade would be anywhere from there to last weeks high.



Not much to say here - we can see the probe down on Friday goes all the way to 2149 so it looks like a little leeway is needed to the downside.

Plan
- Market is in a range - waiting for a breakout.
- look for absorption at the extremes, around 62.50 at the top, around 51.50 below. As with all ranges, we have to live with the fact it could fall short or poke through and turn around
- Consider a break with high volume to be real and try to get in on a restest of the 51.50-62.50 area
- if retest on a break is missed, slap self in the head and stalk a pullback only if volume is still heavy on the side of the break (just worried we'll run out of steam if we do break)

Weekly Numbers
Range 2120 – 2168
Value 2138.75- 2163.25
S1 – 2130.75, R1 – 2169.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2149 -> 2164.25 / 2164.75
Value 2151.50 -> 2159
Globex 2153.50 -> 2163.25

Settlement – 2152.75

Today only – 2150, 2139

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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19th July



Yesterday we had...


Quoting 
We have run out of steam to the upside. So now we wait for a break. Looking for headfakes/probes out and trying to discern if they are breaks or not.

and we can see volume really dropped off yesterday. There was no break, so same deal today.



From yesterday


Quoting 
We can see the upper of 3 distributions starts at about 2151.50. So anywhere from 2150 to there, I'll be looking for the market to hold.

If we get through 49, I'm expecting us to work our way down to 39 but that would not necessarily mean we are done to the upside. 62.50 is where volume tapers off above us, so the fade would be anywhere from there to last weeks high.

Same today - 62.50 was yesterdays high but we only made it as far down as 52.75 - still, that's ranges for you....



Not much to see here - although it's worth looking at yesterdays value area as we go into today - give it a few ticks leeway there as we have a probe down just below that in the afternoon yesterday.

Plan (this may look familiar as it's copied from yesterday....
- Market is in a range - waiting for a breakout.
- look for absorption at the extremes, around 62.50 at the top, around 51.50 below. As with all ranges, we have to live with the fact it could fall short or poke through and turn around
- Consider a break with high volume to be real and try to get in on a restest of the 51.50-62.50 area
- if retest on a break is missed, slap self in the head and stalk a pullback only if volume is still heavy on the side of the break (just worried we'll run out of steam if we do break)

Weekly Numbers
Range 2120 – 2168
Value 2138.75- 2163.25
S1 – 2130.75, R1 – 2169.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2152.75 -> 2162.50 / 2163.25
Value 2158.25 -> 2161.75
Globex 2151.25 -> 2161

Settlement – 2160

Today only – 2150, 2139

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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20th July



We've probed the top of the range overnight. No signs of a break yet. Yesterday we just traded 1.1 million contracts.



We have a very narrow value area so far this week, so I'm sticking with the same plan - play around the range till we have a clear break.

This range should not hold much longer - it would be rare to be in such a range for 7 or 8 trading days. We should pop out of this range, shake out the positions of traders in the range and then put in a run in one direction or the other. Failure to do that will probably mean we are looking at a summer slow down - but I think it's too early to call right now.



The daily profiles don't help at all really, just confirm the range and that the overnight "pop" to the upside isn't anything new so far.

Plan
- Market is in a range - waiting for a breakout.
- look for absorption at the extremes, around 68.00 at the top now we have pushed up, around 51.50 below. As with all ranges, we have to live with the fact it could fall short or poke through and turn around
- If we do have a strong push up, look for the market to fall back to 2160.75 (developing weekly VAH), if that holds, expect volume to the upside.


Weekly Numbers
Range 2151.25 –> 2167.25
Value 2155.25 -> 2160.75
S1 – 2130.75, R1 – 2169.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2151.25 /2152.25-> 2158.50 / 2161
Value 2153.50 -> 2156.50
Globex 2155.25 -> 2167.25

Settlement – 2158.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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July 21st (page 1)

Over the next week, the main theme on US Index Futures and indeed, all other markets, is going to be analyzing overall market participation. There’s a number of reasons this should be the focus of our Analysis.



This is the daily chart of the eMini S&P500 Futures, as we can see, like all index futures markets, the volume has been declining. Yesterday we traded just 1.1 million contracts. Possible explanations for this are:

- Uncertainty on the behalf of short term speculators. After all, we have been in a range since mid-March and the market moved up 60 points in just a few days. Often, we see lack of participation because everyone else is waiting to see what everyone else is going to do.
- We are seeing the start of a Summertime Slowdown.

If it’s the former, we’ll shake this off and expand the range. We may start swinging between 2100 and 2200 for a while. If we do, we should still see decent participation and decent enough ranges. If it’s the latter, we will have to change approach to trading. For some that will mean becoming a range trader and some would be better off moving to a thinner market. For example a US index trader might move to Nasdaq Index Futures or Euro Currency Futures.

In some ways, consolidation after a move is a good thing. Value traders call it price acceptance – saying that people like these prices and want to trade here. Still, if people liked trading here, we’d expect to see a few more of them!

Volume Expectations

So right now, where is participation coming from? Well – we all know that the majority of trading on most days is short term speculators. HFTs are short term speculators. Then we know that some days we see a lot of institutional re positioning. The volume we see now indicates that it’s not large institutions trading this market.

As usual, we have the usual suspects that could increase speculative volume. Scheduled economic news, unexpected news (good and bad), a technical breakout from the range and right now – earnings season. The earnings season occurs four times a year and is when US public companies publish their results. This kicks off mid-January, mid-April, mid-July and mid-October. There’s not much gap between earnings seasons but there’s a lot of insignificant companies reporting too. Alcoa is one of the first major companies to release earnings (11th July) and from that point we see more and more earnings out per day. The season then tapers off but does not have an official finish. So the bulk of major announcements started from 11th July. Right now, we have hundreds of companies reporting each day.

Earnings are announced before the open (impacting pre-market trade), after the close (impacting post-market trade) and then you have a few outliers than report in the middle of the night. No-one is allowed to report earnings during the trading day. There’s lots of sites with earnings calendars out there, like this one on Yahoo Finance:




So what’s your point?

There’s lots of stock day traders that play earnings announcements. So this does bring volume into the market. More importantly, on any day where a major company like Apple is announcing. If there is a surprise in the results, we can get a big boost in participation in the index futures. I guess it’s considered an economic event if a company like Apple significantly beats or fails to meet sales/earnings expectations.

When we look at the drop in volume right now, we have to consider we are in earnings season. It doesn’t seem to be helping much. At this time, don’t just keep an eye on scheduled economic announcements. Keep an eye on general financial news to see if any major company had a big hit or miss. Then you won’t be surprised if volume comes into the market as a result.

Index Futures Scenarios for the Coming Days





Above we have 2 market profiles. On the right is this week. We can see that this week we have most trade distributed from 2153 to 2161, then we have another smaller distribution above that. The scenarios I see playing out for the rest of the week.

Yellow – we fall back to the top of the lower distribution (2161 area), that holds and gives speculators confidence to take it higher.
Red – we move back through 2161, and just rotate (and maybe extend) around the weeks range.
We could of course lazily climb up but I would expect that to be lower participation as there’s been no test & hold.

Index Futures, Daily Profiles




Yesterday, we can see a nice move up off the open and then consolidation from 2166.25-2169.75. As of writing, we are still trading in that area overnight (the small profile on the right). So our first “tell” will be whether that consolidation area holds or not. From a daily perspective, a pullback to 66.25 also seems like a decent place to see speculators jump in if it holds.

How was Yesterdays Volume?




This chart shows how much volume we were trading at the time of day compared to the 60 day average. It was declining, which basically means less participation as the day progressed. We ended up half a million contracts below average.

Contd....

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July 21st Contd...

How was Yesterdays Liquidity?



Pretty thick for the S&P500 index futures nowadays. So we have more liquidity. More limit orders at each level and less volume (less market orders to eat that liquidity). This is why we are see the market so sluggish.

Yesterdays Swings



Yesterday we had a probe down and failed to get to the close (pink dotted line). We then had a few good upswings up with 6, then 7, then 6 tick pullbacks (red arrows). One of those pullbacks was back to the open (white dotted line). In retrospect it looks like we had some decent entry opportunities to the upside but with the low volume and overall low delta, I think that if you didn’t trade the upside, it was a decent decision. We got up to the overnight high (dotted blue line) and then moved sideways. Had we moved down, we’d have expected 6/7 tick pullbacks on the way down.

The good thing is that we can see we had players playing the “regular” levels that speculators play on the index futures. If we missed these levels yesterday because we presumed it would be a sloppy range, we can be alert for them today. The range is expanding to the upside, but I think it’s to early to say that we have left the range and aren’t going to see successively lower volumes over the coming weeks.

So all eyes on that.

So what’s the plan?
- Look for a move back to 2161, look for good upside participation if it holds. Look for the market to continue the weeks range if it holds.
- Look also for a bounce at yesterday afternoon range 2166.25-2169.75
- Be aware that speculators seem to be playing intraday levels again so watch yesterdays high/low, value high/low and overnight high/low (numbers below)
Watch for overall pace of the market and any early volume building that would indicate a range day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2151.25 –> 2169.75
Value 2153.75 -> 2161.25
S1 – 2130.75, R1 – 2169.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2155.25 /2158.50 -> 2169.75
Value 2164 -> 2169.75
Globex 2166.25 -> 2169

Settlement – 2167.50

Today only 2166.25, 2161

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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DionysusToast View Post
July 21st Contd...

How was Yesterdays Liquidity?



Pretty thick for the S&P500 index futures nowadays. So we have more liquidity. More limit orders at each level and less volume (less market orders to eat that liquidity). This is why we are see the market so sluggish.

Hi Pete. I don't frequently watch the ES but I seem to remember these days we have an average of 400-600 resting orders at each level.

How would you explain the liquidity increase in the above picture?

Thanks

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Hi Pete. I don't frequently watch the ES but I seem to remember these days we have an average of 400-600 resting orders at each level.

How would you explain the liquidity increase in the above picture?

Thanks

Market slows down in the summer time. We have fewer market orders, so my guess is:

1 - market makers have less risk so they can bid/offer more size
2 - you actually need to trade larger size to make money in a smaller range
3 - everyone knows it slows, down so because of 1 & 2 it's a self fulfilling prophecy

Happens most summertimes though.

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DionysusToast View Post
July 21st Contd...

...

Yesterday we had a probe down and failed to get to the close (pink dotted line)...

Settlement was 2158.75 and price hit 2158.5 which was a swing high from the p-day and a single at 2158.75.

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Settlement was 2158.75 and price hit 2158.5 which was a swing high from the p-day and a single at 2158.75.

Well spotted - thanks for that!

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22nd July



Volume still low, 1.3M - we did make new a new high by 2 ticks in the overnight session prior to Thursdays day session but the day session just stuck in the range.

Yesterday we were looking at 2 scenarios:



The red one seems to be in play - we got to the bottom of the range and are now working our way up, possibly filling in the area between the 2 profiles.



It's not really a good trade in the middle even from a weekly profile perspective because even if we can say "we are travelling back to the highs", we still have a large distribution from 2153-2162 which could suck us back in. Once we clear, that we don't have much room to highs. So from a weekly perspective, it makes sense to wait till it hits the extremes.



The daily profile doesn't help much because we are in the middle of it. Obviously a trip to yesterdays high puts us close to the top of the weeks range and a trip to the lows puts us near the bottom of the weeks range.



Yesterday we were looking for a bounce at 2166.25-2169.75 - and that's what we got. More importantly, we can see plenty of speculators were watching that area. We can see we had a couple of attempts, could not get through it and then we can see a big drop in delta (red arrow), with poor pullbacks (yellow arrows) that had low volume and relatively little delta shift.

Plan
- Don't play in the middle unless there is a good intraday VP area to play off.
- Wait for an extreme, we can see speculators are still around, so let them do the initial work and try to get in on a pullback if the extreme itself is a bit too busy.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2151.25 –> 2170.25
Value 2153.25 -> 2162.25
S1 – 2130.75, R1 – 2169.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2153.50 -> 2168.50 / 2170.25
Value 2155 -> 2165.50
Globex 2156 -> 2164.50

Settlement – 2158

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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25th July



Friday we didn't do much of anything but overnight, we've managed to break the high again - without a lot of conviction. Volume has been low overnight, so looking to see if there's any levels that might interest people as we come into today.



We have 2 distributions from last week with 63.25 between them, so on any move down I'm watching that area first. Other than that, on the lookout for a move into last weeks value area and a move to the opposite end of it.



We can see Friday day session was completely within the overnight session. Not a great place to trade at all. I'll also be watching Fridays high on any move down so that really makes the area 64.50 down to 61.50 (Fridays Value high) and area of interest, a lot of levels there (mid point discussed above AND the weekly VAH).

Plan
- Not expecting much based on overnight volume
- if we move down and can hold between 61.50 and 64.50, I think we should get a tradeable run to the upside
- if we move up off the open, I'm watching last weeks high and the overnight high as hurdles
- expectation is low, so no trade for the first 15 mins unless we get a large concentrated area of volume from overnight. Expecting low participation and if so - looking to fade high volume area.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2151.25 –> 2170.25
Value 2153.25 -> 2162.25
S1 – 2156.75, R1 – 2174.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2153.50 / 2156 -> 2164.50 / 2168.50
Value 2157.50 -> 2161.50
Globex 2163.75 -> 2172.50

Settlement – 2167.50

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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26th July



Still in the range! 1.8 million contracts traded yesterday and the range was just under 12 points, so something on the table for the patient.



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Other than that, on the lookout for a move into last weeks value area and a move to the opposite end of it.

We haven't quite made it to the value low from last week but we did make it as far as the prices we traded the most. We are now trading back up, we may stop at the value high from last week or we may just fill in to last weeks high. So from a long term perspective, it's a little tricky and I'll not factor it in till we get to last weeks high.



Looking at the shorter term picture, we tested Fridays day session low. If we can break that today, we may get some decent participation to the downside. To the upside, it's less clear as we are in the middle of the range.

Plan
- Watch for a test of Fridays low. If it breaks look for continuations down if volume is decent and if volume is weak, fade the move.
- If we have no downside test and grind up - try to find an intraday level to go long off. I'm not very excited about that and would not be expecting much from any trades as a result.
- Yesterdays high/low are worth watching too as are the usual intraday levels but I'm not that excited about trades in the middle of the longer term range.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2151.25 –> 2170.25
Value 2153.25 -> 2162.25
S1 – 2156.75, R1 – 2174.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2155.75 -> 2167 / 2172.50
Value 2156.25 -> 2160.75
Globex 2158.25 -> 2164.75

Settlement – 2162.25

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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27th July

Futures trading can be a lonely business if you do it from home. So it’s good to talk to other traders. I was chatting with the head of a new Prop trading firm in London yesterday (as you do) and the topic got round to the market action we have right now. We got onto the discussion of transitions and how some people were better at spotting them than others. He knows one trader that can watch a dull market for weeks and then the moment it picks up, hes right on it. In tune with the new conditions almost immediately. That is a rare skill. We’ll consider that in more detail shortly.



Our challenge is this directionless market. From a long term perspective, futures trading has been pretty good. We went from around 1980 to 2170. From a short term perspective the market has no direction.

Futures trading volume is still decent. I’d be expecting volumes as low as 800k per day (including overnight) at the low end of summer.



The medium term (weekly profiles) don’t look so great. This week we have done nothing but trade around last weeks profile. That’s great on the days where we hit the extremes of last weeks range but not so good if we are trading in the middle of it.

The Challenge – Transitions



Each letter represents 30 mins of trading. Click the image to view full size.

The challenge right now is best considered by looking at the past 5 days. The profiles with the day under then represent the day session (the time the underlying stock markets were open).

Thursday
– Opened and stuck in a 4 point range for over 2 hours. Then the market broke down.

Friday – Market went up from the open and then got stuck in a 3.5 point range for 3.5 hours.

Monday – Broke straight down off the open, then went into a sloppy range that lasted the rest of the day.

Tuesday – A more volatile day for index futures traders. We managed to test the extremes of the prior week before breaking down and testing the lows of the prior week.

Wednesday – a volatile day with good moves trading ahead of and behind the FOMC.

Tuesday and Wednesday were both good days to be futures trading. They are the sort of “day trader days” that we like because they swing nicely in both directions. Thursday, Friday and Monday were trickier because of the transitions from range to trend and vice versa.

Why do Transitions Pose a Problem in Trading?

Traders (certainly myself) get used to the market switching gears periodically. You get to expect certain type of activity when the market opens.

Where index futures trading becomes more tricky is when major behavioral transition occur intraday. .

Days where we open with low volume, very small range – on these days (like Thursday last week), the action is sloppy and you can lose focus. There is not much going on, so you can very easily get bored, start checking email or just having your eyes glaze over. It is hard for some people to keep their concentration. So when the market does break, it is extremely easy to miss it.

Days where we more right off the open – like Monday, catch us by surprise because overall we know the markets are a bit slow. So we come into the day with low expectations. As such, we can get caught off guard by a move off the open. By the time we realize what’s happening, we are chasing a trade and getting caught in the chop. Friday was like this to some extent, we had a probe down off the open but then we marched up and spent hours chopping around.

As volume likely continues to reduce in the coming month, this will become more of an issue unless we address it head on.

Low Volatility Approach

If you want to trade these days, we have to consider a couple of things.

1 – When a market moves sideways, especially if it does so close to the open, it is basically building short term positions in that area. You CAN trade around that area, fading the highs and lows. These are good trades. Eventually there will be a break. This could happen after many hours. It could range all morning and break in the afternoon. The key skill in trading the eventual major move for the day is your ability to stay focused.

2 – Always watch for a break off the open. There may be a test one way and then a break. The test is often of a volume cluster from overnight. If you miss this break, and the market reverts to a range and volume drops, then you might want to think about stopping for the day.

In other words, we are going to have days with just 1 major swing. It may come before or after a range but if you miss it, then the day has passed you by.

Chasing the swing

If you do miss the swing, or the start of it then one approach is to scale into a trade in that direction. Just trade a small size and if it works add some more. That way you aren’t ‘all in’ until you have some move on your side. If you end up positioned into the chop, you are in a better position to work your way out of it.

CSI – Cumulative Sheep Index



The “CSI” is a tongue-in-cheek name for an indicator that shows relative volume. At any time it shows you how much above or below average we are in terms of volume. In this case, relative to the last 60 days.

Traders are like sheep – when a move comes in and it becomes clear, they jump on it. At first just one or two sheep move but then the others see it and the whole herd is going one way.

With this in mind, all that matters here is not the absolute number but whether it’s going up (more sheep coming in right now), down (less sheep coming in right now) or sideways (average).

Using this, along with correlated markets helps you to identify if a move really has some power behind it or if overall interest is dropping off.

Plan for today and the week ahead

An eye on overnight volume for a clue as to how much participation will come in.
Look for a move off the open because it might be all you get. If missed, consider scaling in as it could be a one way move.
If volume drops and/or NQ/YM start moving in different directions – presume we are reverting to chop
If the market chops around early on, try to stay focused for the break.
If the market chops after a decent (e.g. 8-10 point) move. Consider we may be done for the day.
Obviously if volume comes back into the market, VIX increases and we see

Weekly Numbers
Range 2152–> 2172.50
Value 2159.50 -> 2168
S1 – 2156.75, R1 – 2174.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2152 -> 2169.25
Value 2156.75 -> 2164.75
Globex 2159.50 -> 2165.50

Settlement – 2160.50

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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29th July

OK - there has to be a line drawn somewhere and here it is.

For todays prep - see yesterday. Basically we are still in the same place, doing the same thing and looking for the same things.

Have a good weekend!

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1st August



No surprises on Friday but on Sunday evening, we managed to finally break out of the range. Of course, that's overnight and we need to hold this in the day session today.



So today we should look back at last week and we can see that anywhere from last weeks high down to around 2168 which is the high of where most of the volume traded last week.

If we start trading down through 2168, then we'll most likely revert back to rangebound behavior a slip back into last weeks action.



An eye also on Fridays value area too today.

Plan
- Today is all about whether we can keep the new highs made overnight and possibly push upwards some more
- Look for a pullback to last weeks high/2168 and for volume to come in if it holds
- if 2168 breaks, then expect a repetition of last weeks action
- If we move up from the open with no test, be patient as it may take time for buyers to commit

Weekly Numbers
Range 2152–> 2172.50
Value 2159 -> 2167.50
S1 – 2156, R1 – 2176.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2157.50 -> 2171.75
Value 2164.75 -> 2171.25
Globex 2170-> 2177.75

Settlement – 2168.25

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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2nd August



Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
No surprises on Friday but on Sunday evening, we managed to finally break out of the range. Of course, that's overnight and we need to hold this in the day session today.

And it seems we couldn't! Back to the range. Although maybe an extended one.



Yesterday, we basically pushed into last weeks value area and traversed to the the other side of it (last weeks VAL was 59 and we got down to 59.75). We have pushed through that overnight.



Yesterday a few nice moves off the open but then rangebound in the afternoon. So back to the mode we were in last week....

Plan
Look for a move off the open because it might be all you get. If missed, consider scaling in as it could be a one way move.
If volume drops and/or NQ/YM start moving in different directions – presume we are reverting to chop
If the market chops around early on, try to stay focused for the break.
If the market chops after a decent (e.g. 8-10 point) move. Consider we may be done for the day.
Obviously if volume comes back into the market, VIX increases and we see a decent swing we can look for continuations

This range is getting old so it could break any time - it's like a coiled spring. We aren't seeing a lack of volume - no days below 1M contracts yet.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2152–> 2172.50
Value 2159 -> 2167.50
S1 – 2156, R1 – 2176.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2159.75 -> 2172.75 (day) / 2177.75
Value 2161 -> 2167
Globex 2157.50-> 2171

Settlement – 2164.50

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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3rd August



So the range appears to have broken - or has it? That's the question today. We had a good breakdown and just under 2 million contracts traded.]

Thing is - depending on how you define the range we have either just poked through the low (2143.25) or not yet hit the bottom of the range 2139.50. This could just be a test of the lows.

So today I'm looking for continuation down or back to the range. Breakdown target would be 2110.25.



From a weekly profile perspective we are below the major distribution from last week. So if we do move up, I'd be a little wary in a long trade as we approach 2157.



Also an eye on yesterdays value area as we have traded around it overnight.

Plan
- No bias into the open. Looking to see if this is just a probe of the low or if we are breaking down
- Consider upside move a potential test until we get back to 2157, after that we are back in range mode
- Look for acceleration past 39.50 to confirm the break.
- overall expectancy is low to the upside in terms of participation and high if we get downside participation

Weekly Numbers
Range 2141.50 –> 2177.75
Value 2141.50 -> 2167.
S1 – 2156, R1 – 2176.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2141.50/2164 / 2171
Value 2143.25 -> 2151.75
Globex 2145.25 -> 2154

Today only: 2143.25, 2139.50

Settlement – 2152.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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4th August

Market value is a big factor in the moves we are seeing right now. Or rather, an understanding of Market Auction Theory, Value based concepts helps us to make sense of this action. We’d seen the market push down on Tuesday and participants breathed a collective sigh of relief thinking “we’ve finally broken the range”. Or had we?

Here’s an image from the pre-market prep on Tuesday:



Watching the market on Tuesday, we had just under 2 million contracts traded, and we really pushed down hard. So it really felt like a breakdown of the medium term range. When you look at the above image, taken on Wednesday morning, there’s an argument both for Tuesday being a test of the lows (2143. 25) and a failure to get to the range low (2139.50). The bottom of a range is always a little bit subjective and it’s better to treat those areas as zones rather than absolute “make or break” levels.

So the scenarios going into yesterday were this:
  • It’s a real break, in which case, we’d expect volume on any move down as more people realize it’s really breaking and try to take advantage of it (speculation)
  • It’s not a real break, in which case we move up and get lower volume, less volatility.
And of course it looks like we moved up back to where medium term market value resides. Back to the range.



Here we can see this weeks profile on the right and last weeks in the middle. We can see last weeks profile is “D” shaped and tapers at the end. This is classic “trading around value”. So after we broke down Tuesday, we wanted to then see the market test the “old” market value and reject it. A move up to around 2058 and then a rejection to the downside would have been a green light for speculators to play the downside. What we didn’t want to see was it to start trading back into market value. And on Wednesday – that’s exactly what we did.

So what we did on Monday and Tuesday was effectively test the high and low of the range. So there’s nothing as yet to say we have shaken off this range but at least the market woke up for a day on Wednesday. As we discussed on transitions last week, a lot of traders will have missed that because they probably came into the day with expectations of a low range slow day.



As we can see we are now clearly back into the range, so we expect to keep trading around market value. The thing about these ranges, they are like coiled springs. We build more and more positions in the area until eventually the pressure builds and the market breaks away. That can happen any time but until it does we can presume:

- The best trades will be to buy the bottom of the range and sell the top of the range
- The closer to the middle we are, the poorer the trade opportunity. After all, we traded more in the middle and that means when we get to the middle there is more chance of choppy action
- After hitting the bottom, we can have an overall long bias until we hit the top of the range and then we have an overall short bias until we hit the low of the range



The yellow highlighted area is Tuesday, a nice breakdown almost 2 million contracts. The purple highlighted area is Wednesday, very low range lots of chop and under 1.4 million contracts.

Most markets will go up and down intraday, one way days are rare. So despite our bias we have to be ready to trade both ways. We also have to be ready for the market to transition from chop to range.

We could deliberate and debate over this market value phenomenon. We know it happens, we know that ranges tend to pull the market back like a magnet. Some say it’s “price acceptance” that buyers and sellers agree that these are good prices to trade at. If you think about it. When a lot of volume trades in an area that is because buyers met sellers there. In my opinion, when buyers and sellers trade with each other it is because they DON’T agree on price. After all – surely the sellers and buyers don’t agree on where they think the market is going after they enter their trades. They think the opposite.

Anyway – we always have to be alert for the break. And if it does break, the market is “coiled” enough to give us a run. So whilst we may not catch the start of the break, we should still be able to jump on board.

Plan for today and the week ahead

- Be alert for the breakdown. High volume, aggressive on way trading but otherwise……
- An eye on overnight volume for a clue as to how much participation will come in but also as the steps in the overnight volume profile often holds
- Look for a move off the open because it might be all you get. If missed, consider scaling in as it could be a one way move.
- If volume drops and/or NQ/YM start moving in different directions – presume we are reverting to chop
- If the market chops around early on, try to stay focused for the break.
- If the market chops after a decent (e.g. 8-10 point) move. Consider we may be done for the day.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2141.50 –> 2177.75
Value 2146.50-> 2166.50
S1 – 2156.75, R1 – 2174.25

Daily Numbers
Range 2145.25 / 2147 -> 2158.25
Value 2151.75 -> 2155.75
Globex 2159.50 -> 2165.50

Settlement – 2157

Range Levels – 2139.50, 2143.25, 2177.75,

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Time for a vacation! Back in 2 weeks.

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22nd August

Well, back to trading, although I can't say I'm overly excited...



Volume is down, Friday was 1.4 million and the range is down. We haven't seen a 4/5 point day yet. Unless we see news to move the market, it'll probably be like this (or worse). Most summer times we see this action till the end of the first week in September.

For the past 2 weeks the range has been 2165.50-2190.75 but let's not forget the earlier range 2143.50-2177.75



Value-wise, last week we had most trade between 2176.50-2184 (the value area), so watching that into this week.



Ranges are still around 10 points. So obviously no 10 point stops and 50 point targets.

Plan
- Neutral bias.
- looking for longs at 65.50 and 76.50
- looking for shorts at 84 and 90.75
- staying wary of a break of 2165.50-2190.75 but not
- looking for early trades off high volume nodes from overnight
- other than that - wait for 15-30 mins for a range an intraday range form and fade that

Weekly Numbers
Range 2165.50 –> 2190.75
Value 2176.50-> 2184
S1 – 2167.75, R1 – 2193

Daily Numbers
Range 2172.50 -> 2183 / 2184.25
Value 2176.50 -> 2181.50
Globex 2175.50 -> 2184.50

Settlement – 2181.74

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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23rd August



Still in the range but now at the top end of it, so looking for a break or a fade back to the bottom of the range. Volume still to the low side.



Yesterday we basically traded around last weeks value, so again it's reasonable to expect a rotation down to trade around it some more.



Yesterday was a 10 point range, not bad for the time of year and the rotations were of decent size.

Plan
- expectation of a rotation down from the range high (90.75)
- if we push through the range take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- looking for longs below last weeks value 76.50


Weekly Numbers
Range 2165.50 –> 2190.75
Value 2176.50-> 2184
S1 – 2167.75, R1 – 2193

Daily Numbers
Range 2173.50 -> 2183.50 / 2184.50
Value 2176.25 -> 2181.25
Globex 2179.25 -> 2188

Settlement – 2181.50

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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24th August



Very low volume yesterday, just over 1.1 million traded. All my horizontal lines disappeared off my chart too - which means it's probably my lucky day.



Not much to see here, still trading around last weeks range.



Yesterday followed our game plan, looking to fade the market at 90.75 (we actually pushed 3 ticks through) but it took a while before we got a break,so whilst the "bigger picture plan" - the market did work - the better trade was fading the high volume nodes that developed intraday.



Obviously, that strategy would have worked better in the morning but we hit the extremes of that intraday range many times.

Plan
- expectation is for continuation down to towards last weeks low/value low (even though it appears to have stalled overnight) 2165.50/2176.50
- if we push through the range take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday


Weekly Numbers
Range 2173.50 –> 2191.50
Value 2176.50-> 2185.50
S1 – 2167.75, R1 – 2193

Daily Numbers
Range 2179.25 / 2184.25 -> 2191.50
Value 2186.25 -> 2189.75
Globex 2180.75 -> 2187.75

Settlement – 2185.25

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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No prep - webinar tonight (3:30am my time) - so sleeping, not trading....

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DionysusToast View Post
No prep - webinar tonight (3:30am my time) - so sleeping, not trading....

Big Mike must be paying you well, eh?

Richard
Hong Kong
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Big Mike must be paying you well, eh?

Handsomely in attaboys....

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26th August



Still in the range, we've hit the bottom, so now expecting a move to the top. Possibly a headfake down first.



This week we have basically rotated around last weeks range, so not much to be gained from the profile other than we are at the range low.



We had a push up yesterday but we couldn't hold it. I'm on the lookout for a break of the lows and potentially a return to the lower range. I need to see some volume to short past the range low though so assumption is still going to be any new low for the week is fake.

Plan
- expectation is for continuation up towards this weeks high/value high
- if we push through the range take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday
- As it's Friday - it could be a very slow day (overnight range is very small)


Weekly Numbers
Range 2167.50 –> 2191.50
Value 2172-> 2184.50
S1 – 2167.75, R1 – 2193


Daily Numbers

Range 2167.50 -> 2177.25
Value 2169.75 -> 2175.25
Globex 2172.75 -> 2176.25

Settlement – 2173.50

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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30th August



Still in the range - we had some nice volatility on Friday but it's settled down now, volume was back to 1.2 million. Labor day in the US is on Monday and usually it's the following week that we get the volume back. So we may have to grit our teeth for another few weeks. Hopefully the start of next week will see some excitement.

Still - this is a long time in a tight range, so we have to be on the lookout for a break. For now, we are travelling to the upper side of the range, so bias is upside till we get there. Not marriage. Just bias.



A pretty lumpy distribution last week, so I'm not paying too much attention to the value area - more on the taper around 2187. So anywhere from 2187 to our range high, I'll be wary of a reversal.



SO far overnight we are holding yesterdays value area. It's early yet (4am EST) but if it stays like this, that could mean a very slow ES session.

Plan (this may look familiar)

- expectation is for continuation up towards this weeks high 2187
- if we push through the range take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday

Weekly Numbers
Range 2157.50 –> 2191.50
Value 2170.50 -> 2184.50
S1 – 2153.50, R1 – 2187.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2169.25 -> 2182.25
Value 2176.75 -> 2181.75
Globex 2177.75 -> 2180.75

Settlement – 2179.20

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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31st August

Well - this month won't be missed.



Still in the range, still poor volume. Yesterday was pretty much an inside day. My upside bias still stands as we have hit the bottom of the range and not the top. Still, the range can fail any time.



Very uneven distribution this week - the lower distribution at 2168 is worth keeping an eye on but otherwise, I don't get much from the weekly profile



We had a pullback to 2176.25 which was also value area and the top of Globex. That looks like a strong level and if we can hold it and push down from it, I think we could get some decent participation to the downside.

Plan
- bias is for continuation up towards this weeks high 2187
- Looking to join decent downside participation if 2176 holds with a potential break of the range if it does
- 2168 a hurdle to the downide
- if we push through the range high take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday

Weekly Numbers
Range 2164.50 –> 2172.25
Value 2171.75 -> 2181.25
S1 – 2153.50, R1 – 2187.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2168.50 -> 2181.50
Value 2170.75 -> 2176.25
Globex 2172.50 -> 2176.25

Settlement – 2175.25

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Today only - 2168, 2176

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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1st September



We do seem to be threatening the bottom of the range and this is the first time we've hit the range extreme twice without hitting the other side in between. Volume was up yesterday 1.6 million.

Still - unless everyone comes back from holiday early, chances are it's a headfake and whilst I'm on the lookout for a break out, I still want to see a really good swing commence downside to join in short at this point. Otherwise, I'm long biased long.



Looking from a weekly profile perspective puts the move down into perspective. We've not broken the previous weeks lows yet.



Overnight we've made up a some of the ground lost and currently we are in the middle of the weeks range. So into the open, we need to see if the day session takes another push down. Bottom line is that the more pushes down we have, the weaker it looks to everyone and we should draw more people into the downside.

Plan
- Watching for a breakdown because of the price action but in terms of economic news/holiday season I still see no reason for us not to continue in the range
- It may just be a matter of we've built enough energy in this range and it needs to break
- Watching yesterdays value high with interest as that has held overnight.
- lt's very much a 'wait and see' type of day for me so unless something happens with the rest of the overnight session, I'm going to sit on my hands for the first 15 mins and see if something develops for a decent intraday swing.
- If we just range in the first 15 mins, I'll look to pick off the extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2159.50 –> 2182.25
Value 2164.75 -> 2176.75
S1 – 2153.50, R1 – 2187.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2159.50 -> 2172.75 / 2176.25
Value 2160.25 -> 2168.25
Globex 2168.25 -> 2177.25

Settlement – 2169.50

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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2nd September



Well - we got our break as per yesterdays prep and plenty of people did indeed jump on the move. A couple of very clear opportunities on the way down too - first one was 2 attempts to push up through the open price. The first failed, the second failed after a couple of ticks.

Later on we had a pullback to a step in the profile which also held. So textbook ES action.

But now we are back in the range - so today is all about whether we can continue down or not. We have employment numbers at 8:30 am and if they are good - it's not too helpful for shorts.



From a weekly perspective - not much happened, we probed past last weeks low. Nothing to get excited about.



And from a daily perspective we actually closed a few ticks above the open. So we got volatility but returned to the range.

Plan
- Be wary of low participation especially if we move upside
- Look for another push down with good volume.
- If volume is low off the open let it build for 15 mins as per yesterdays plan
- No real bias - just hoping for downside moves as I feel that is where we have the best chance of participation

Weekly Numbers
Range 2154.75 –> 2182.25
Value 2164.50 -> 2176.50
S1 – 2153.50, R1 – 2187.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2154.75 -> 2172.35 / 2177.25
Value 2160.50 -> 2169.50
Globex 2164.75 -> 2169.25

Settlement – 2167.25

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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6th September

Trader slowly drag themselves into the office today after the break. Caffeine drips all round. Diets commenced. Detoxification started. It often takes the market till early next week to pick up but let's see what we get today. It may be worth hibernating for another 4 days.



We are still in the range, although at the top of it, so wary today of a turn down. We are at last weeks high but not the range high, so an eye on both. Given the probes to the downside, it could be argued we are due one to the upside, which means hitting 2200. So we have fade potential but it's going to pay to let it turn first and not try to pick the top.



Not much to say about last weeks profile, other than to keep an eye on the extremes of value.



On days following a Monday holiday, I consider "overnight" to be everything since Fridays close and for "Yesterday" to be Friday, so that's how I'm going to come up with my daily levels. We have traded within Fridays range so far, so nothing to report since last week.

Plan
- Close to the range highs, so looking for the fade
- Ranges often probe through the highs after probing through the lows, so don't be too fast to fade it
- Holidays are over, so be aware that we could break the range with people coming back - so an eye on overall volume and commitment
- Very much a 'wait and see' day because of the above. No strong bias going in

Weekly Numbers
Range 2154.75 –> 2182.25
Value 2164.50 -> 2177
S1 – 2160.75, R1 – 2189.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2164.25 / 2171.75 -> 2183.75
Value 2174.25 -> 2180.25
Globex 2175 > 2182.25

Settlement – n/a

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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7th September



We are basically in the same place as yesterday....


Quoting 
We are still in the range, although at the top of it, so wary today of a turn down. We are at last weeks high but not the range high, so an eye on both. Given the probes to the downside, it could be argued we are due one to the upside, which means hitting 2200. So we have fade potential but it's going to pay to let it turn first and not try to pick the top.



We have broken last weeks high, but not the range high. Not much to say about the weekly profiles.



We had a late pullback to 2180.50 yesterday, so I'll be watching that today.

Plan

- Close to the range highs, so looking for the fade
- Ranges often probe through the highs after probing through the lows, so don't be too fast to fade it
- Look for a hold of 2180.50 to bring in buyers

Weekly Numbers
Range 2154.75 –> 2182.25
Value 2164.50 -> 2177
S1 – 2160.75, R1 – 2189.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2173 -> 2185.75
Value 2177.25 -> 2183.25
Globex 2181.75 > 2186.25

Settlement – 2184.50

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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No prep today, no trading. Will be back tomorrow if the volume has moved to the new month.

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12th September



Trading December contract now.

Big drop and huge volume on Friday. Today is 'officially' the day that volume comes back into the markets. So the last of the absent traders will be back.

After a big move day, we often get a push in the opposite direction, so a snap back up has to be one of our scenarios today. We also need to keep an eye on the market depth. If it's very low - in the low 100's, then it's going to be volatile and stops need to be adjusted accordingly.

Note that 2104 is a key level and we have paused around there for now. That gives another reason for traders to jump on any move up.



There's little point considering the weekly profiles after a drop like that. So I'm not too worried about weekly levels for the next couple of days.



We've gapped down overnight and them taken another 15 point drop. So it does look bearish for now.

Plan
- US traders will set the tone, so despite the continuation down, look out for a snap up off the open
- Trade in any direction that has volume. People will of course jump into the downside if they think we are due another sell off
- look to scale into trades, add more as you are proven right. That way getting caught out by volatility won't hurt too much

Weekly Numbers
Range - not using weeklies after Fridays move
Value


Daily Numbers
Range 2120 -> 2158 / 2171.75
Value 2127.25 -> 2148.75
Globex 2181.75 > 2100.15

Settlement – 2116

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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@DionysusToast

After the rollover what is your ATH. I have 2185 as the ATH some have said it is 2184.5 and the CME shows 2184.25. Not a big deal but i'd like to know if my datas are off a bit.

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trendisyourfriend View Post
@DionysusToast

After the rollover what is your ATH. I have 2185 as the ATH some have said it is 2184.5 and the CME shows 2184.25. Not a big deal but i'd like to know if my datas are off a bit.

85 here too based on IQFeed Data

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13th September



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
After a big move day, we often get a push in the opposite direction, so a snap back up has to be one of our scenarios today. We also need to keep an eye on the market depth. If it's very low - in the low 100's, then it's going to be volatile and stops need to be adjusted accordingly.

And it was the snap back up we had. If we look at the long red box, this shows the attempts up towards 2100 we'd had earlier this year before finally breaking to the upside. On Friday/Sunday evening we tested that area. It's the first test of 2100 since the breakout.

Above us we have the upper summer time range. So for today, I have a few scenarios.

1 - We have tested the old highs and we are now on the way up towards 2200
2 - We are at the start of a new shift down and so the test of the old range will hold and that will bring sellers in

So for today, I'm just considering that scenario. The move down spooked a lot of people who then announced that the sky was falling. Then as we moved up yesterday, they all announced that apparently it was an optical illusion. So I think the key prices are 2100 and the range (2158.75-2184).



There's not that much to gain from this other than watching yesterdays high and globex high/low to see if we get a reaction in the day session. We've been pretty close to the range low, so that may be considered tested.

Plan
- Potentially volatile day.
- No bias, looking for a break of yesterdays range/overnight range as points to play off
- Expecting selling if we fail to get hold through 58.75 (rejection of the upper range and potential confirmation of a sell off)
- Otherwise looking to follow the volume

Weekly Numbers
Range - not using weeklies after Fridays move
Value

Daily Numbers
Range 2100.25 / 2110.50 -> 2156
Value 2121 -> 2147.75
Globex 2135.50 -> 2151.51

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Settlement – 2152

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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14th September



A very indecisive market. As per yesterday, I think it's about the range (2158.75) above and the 2100 below. We are narrowing slightly, so we have to be wary that we may range in this area. Still, it's really whipping around with large volume, so it's clear that people are willing to jump on a move. Just not yet on a move outside of that range. So an eye on them still.



I like the way we topped out around 2129.50 yesterday afternoon and haven't managed to break it overnight. Worth keeping an eye on that today.

The past few days haven't been days where you could do much in the way of finessing an entry. It's been better to scale in as a move progressed.

Yesterday we build a lot of volume from 2136-2138.75 into the open. Here's a pic just before the open....



What happened in the day session, an initial push down, then we moved up to move a few ticks through that high volume area a tick or two, failed to stay above it and then the market took a dive. So actually good from a price action perspective.

Plan
- No bias going in, I still think we could break either way
- Going in with the expectation of high volatility but will change that if the volume is lower today
- If it looks volatile, I'll wait for an excuse for one side to come in (like a tick through 29.50 and a fail to hold) and then scale
- Basically looking for a level to break or hold & then follow the volume looking trying to exploit a larger move
- Obviously that plan goes out the window if the market starts slow - but I'm still wary of going all in because yesterdays start wasn't that fast. Trying not to get sucked in to a trade that suddenly sweeps against.


Weekly Numbers

not using weeklies this week

Daily Numbers
Range 2112.25 -> 2139 / 2151.50
Value 2115 -> 2126
Globex 2121.25 -> 2129.75

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184

Settlement – 2128

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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15th September



Still between a rock and a hard place. We are channeling down but I'm still completely neutral on which way this will go in the end. We still have the old highs below us (making this just a potential retest) but can't get through the range above (making it a potential reversal.



If we look at the past few days, it's clear that the market has become less decisive with a lot of chop after initial moves off the open.

2030 is obviously significant so if any move up stops there, we could see sellers come in, in size.

Plan
- Still waiting for the market to decide if it wants to have a proper push down with 2090-2100 being 'support' and 2158.75 being 'resistance'. We are potentially forming a range between those two points.
- will look for signs that the move to the downside is complete and expect long side volume from there to give us a decent chance of a run upwards.
- caution as we reach 2030 & look out for sell side volume if it holds
- Other than that - looking for an early trade to avoid the chop we've seen later on
- a breakdown through 2090 is likely to trigger a larger sell off, and that's not too far from where we are sitting now

Weekly Numbers
not using weeklies this week

Daily Numbers
Range 2112 -> 2134.50
Value 2118.50 -> 2129.50
Globex 2107.75 -> 2121

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2190, 2100, 2030

Settlement – 2113.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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19th September



Since the breakdown on Friday the 9th, we've been trading in a range. We still have the old range above us at 2158.75 and the old highs at 2100 below. From that perspective, we have to look at the potential for a reversal downside if we get to 58.75 today.



In terms of where we traded last week, the majority was between 2112.75 and 2135.75 - that's last weeks value area. So if we fall back into that range, we should look for a sluggish travel to 12.75.



We had an eye on 2130 last Thursday (Friday was a day off for me) and we can see that was significant on Friday or rather 32.50 which is close to the weeks value high.

Plan
- Watch for a fall back to last weeks value high or the 32.50 level, So 32.50-35.75. If that holds, look for buy side volume and join it.
- If we fall back through 32.50, then expect chop but an overall downside bias till we get to 12.75
- On any moves up, be cautious at 58.75 if you are long. If we pop through it, it's hard to say if we'll then see buyers jump on the "break of the 6 day range" or we'll chop because we are back to the old range
- Overall it's been weird action the past week with the market slipping and sliding 5-6 ticks without much warning, so I'm looking for a change in that behavior today, see if we have some more reliable conditions. If not, then valium to stop me jumping at shadows....

Weekly Numbers
Range 2100.25 -> 2156
Value 2112.75 -> 2135.75
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2123 -> 2134.25 / 2138
Value 2126.25 -> 2131.25
Globex 2131.50 -> 2144.25

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2090, 2100, 2132.50

Settlement – 2132.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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20th September



FOMC day tomorrow, so traditionally a slow day. Still, we've had FOMC mornings that have been wild for no good reason, so we may see a move.

We are still in the middle of the range, still directionless with reducing volume. It's hard to see how we will do much today.



Yesterday we traded around the overnight volume and we've stayed within that overnight.

Plan
- Low expectation day - still looking at 58.75 above and 2100 below as the decision points
- Also looking for bounces off yesterdays highs/lows/value
- But really not expecting much, so I'll let it play out for 20 mins and see if something intraday develops worth playing off

Weekly Numbers

Range 2100.25 -> 2156
Value 2112.75 -> 2135.75
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2127.75 -> 2146.75
Value 2130 -> 2142.50
Globex 2130.75 -> 2142

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2090, 2100

Settlement – 2133

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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21st September



Narrowing range, reducing volume into FOMC.

There's not much point in making a plan today because...

1 - It'll very likely be quiet and directionless before the FOMC
2 - What happens after the FOMC very much depends on what that say about interest rates.

So the plan is "there is no plan"

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DionysusToast View Post
21st September



Narrowing range, reducing volume into FOMC.

There's not much point in making a plan today because...

1 - It'll very likely be quiet and directionless before the FOMC
2 - What happens after the FOMC very much depends on what that say about interest rates.

So the plan is "there is no plan"


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22nd September



The FOMC 'pop' took us to within 5 ticks of the summer range. We are back in it now, but only in overnight trade, so first order of the day is to see if we can work our way to the other side (2184) and maybe onwards to 2200.



Most of the trade this week was below 44, so that's a line in the sand today.



If we look at the daily picture we can see session highs from 44.25-46.75. So if we do drop down, I'll be looking here for a hold - basically a retest of the highs of the past week and a half.

Plan
- No bias - first order of the day is to maintain the move into the summer range, so above 58.75.
- If it drops down, looking at 44.25-46.75, if that holds, I'll be looking to take advantage of a pop up as I believe buyers will come in with volume.
- If that 44.25 doesn't hold - presume we are back into the range of the past week and a half and a trip to 2100 over the next few days.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2126.25 -> 2164
Value 2131.75 -> 2142.25
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2126.25 /2131.50 -> 2157.50
Value 2133.25 -> 2157.50
Globex 2152.75 -> 2165

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2144.25-2146.75

Settlement – 2162.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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23rd September



Up into the old range and yesterday it really thickened up and we had a really choppy day. Not a great shock considering previous action in this area.

So today, I'm looking for a choppy travel to 84 and after that we can hopefullyfree up and put in some moves. Similarly if we drop below 58.75, we should free up a bit. Presumption for now is that between 58.75 and 84, then it'll chop around.




Special attention to yesterdays range today as it's really the only thing we have to play off other than the 58.75 and 84 levels.

Plan
- low expectation day, no strong bias but would expect us to see the other side of the range now we are chopping around
- 58.75 and 84 the major lines in the sand today
- it's Friday, so I suspect the week will just die out

Weekly Numbers
Range 2126.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2129.75 -> 2145.75
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2152.75 / 2164.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2167.25-> 2171.25
Globex 2163.25 -> 2169.50

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2144.25-2146.75

Settlement – 2168.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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26th September



On Friday we had


Quoting 
low expectation day, no strong bias but would expect us to see the other side of the range now we are chopping around

And it did chop around but we've now gapped down overnight. So with that in mind, we usually look initially to see if that move down will hold or whether US traders will reject the move down.



From a weekly perspective, we are still above the majority of last weeks trading, so an eye on 43.50. If that could hold, we could see some size come in on the buy side.



We can see how choppy it was on Friday and that was expected. This dag down wasn't expected and so today I'm going in with no bias.

Plan
- No bias going in - but looking for an early move up in reaction to this large gap down.
- watching 43.50 to the downside and will jump on any move up from that area
- watching Fridays lows above too as potential sticking point as well as the 58.75 range low

Weekly Numbers
Range 2126.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2128.25 -> 2147.25
S1 - 2132.75, R1 - 21577.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2163.25 -> 2169.50 / 2172.25
Value 2165.25-> 2168.75
Globex 2144.25 -> 2159.50

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2158

Today - 2143.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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