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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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DionysusToast View Post
21st September



Narrowing range, reducing volume into FOMC.

There's not much point in making a plan today because...

1 - It'll very likely be quiet and directionless before the FOMC
2 - What happens after the FOMC very much depends on what that say about interest rates.

So the plan is "there is no plan"


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22nd September



The FOMC 'pop' took us to within 5 ticks of the summer range. We are back in it now, but only in overnight trade, so first order of the day is to see if we can work our way to the other side (2184) and maybe onwards to 2200.



Most of the trade this week was below 44, so that's a line in the sand today.



If we look at the daily picture we can see session highs from 44.25-46.75. So if we do drop down, I'll be looking here for a hold - basically a retest of the highs of the past week and a half.

Plan
- No bias - first order of the day is to maintain the move into the summer range, so above 58.75.
- If it drops down, looking at 44.25-46.75, if that holds, I'll be looking to take advantage of a pop up as I believe buyers will come in with volume.
- If that 44.25 doesn't hold - presume we are back into the range of the past week and a half and a trip to 2100 over the next few days.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2126.25 -> 2164
Value 2131.75 -> 2142.25
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2126.25 /2131.50 -> 2157.50
Value 2133.25 -> 2157.50
Globex 2152.75 -> 2165

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2144.25-2146.75

Settlement – 2162.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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23rd September



Up into the old range and yesterday it really thickened up and we had a really choppy day. Not a great shock considering previous action in this area.

So today, I'm looking for a choppy travel to 84 and after that we can hopefullyfree up and put in some moves. Similarly if we drop below 58.75, we should free up a bit. Presumption for now is that between 58.75 and 84, then it'll chop around.




Special attention to yesterdays range today as it's really the only thing we have to play off other than the 58.75 and 84 levels.

Plan
- low expectation day, no strong bias but would expect us to see the other side of the range now we are chopping around
- 58.75 and 84 the major lines in the sand today
- it's Friday, so I suspect the week will just die out

Weekly Numbers
Range 2126.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2129.75 -> 2145.75
S1 - 2110, R1 - 2155.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2152.75 / 2164.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2167.25-> 2171.25
Globex 2163.25 -> 2169.50

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Today - 2144.25-2146.75

Settlement – 2168.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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26th September



On Friday we had


Quoting 
low expectation day, no strong bias but would expect us to see the other side of the range now we are chopping around

And it did chop around but we've now gapped down overnight. So with that in mind, we usually look initially to see if that move down will hold or whether US traders will reject the move down.



From a weekly perspective, we are still above the majority of last weeks trading, so an eye on 43.50. If that could hold, we could see some size come in on the buy side.



We can see how choppy it was on Friday and that was expected. This dag down wasn't expected and so today I'm going in with no bias.

Plan
- No bias going in - but looking for an early move up in reaction to this large gap down.
- watching 43.50 to the downside and will jump on any move up from that area
- watching Fridays lows above too as potential sticking point as well as the 58.75 range low

Weekly Numbers
Range 2126.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2128.25 -> 2147.25
S1 - 2132.75, R1 - 21577.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2163.25 -> 2169.50 / 2172.25
Value 2165.25-> 2168.75
Globex 2144.25 -> 2159.50

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2158

Today - 2143.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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27th September



An unclear day from a long term perspective. We have rejected the upper range which has us potentially hitting 2100 and continuing the range from the past few weeks.

But there will also be people looking at this from the perspective of a the green line which still has us moving up.

The best days for me are when we have fewer opinions at play. Then when a move is initiated, it's obvious which opinion is playing out.



Yesterday we nearly made it to the bottom of the large distribution area from last week and we rejected it - so that's actually good from a continuation up point of view.



A big move overnight after a small move yesterday.

Plan
- No bias
- Going to wait to see what develops, we've been over this area too many times in the past few months.
- There is a small chance of upside speculators getting excited on a push up based on a "trending upwards" market but I'm not too hopeful.
- Will try for an early trade off either overnight high volume areas of yesterdays/overnight extremes.
- Will then look for any ranges forming to fade
- But basically, not expecting too much in terms of decisive moves - a wait & see day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2126.25 -> 2172.75
Value 2128.25 -> 2147.25
S1 - 2132.75, R1 - 21577.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2136.75 -> 2149.50 / 2159.50
Value 2139.25 -> 2145.75
Globex 2133.25 -> 2154

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2139.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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29 September



I have decorators in the house at the moment - so the office is a little upside down - but trying to find time to trade when I can.

We are back into the upper range and approaching last weeks high of 2172.75. If we turn down here today it means the range is narrowing potentially (look at the last 5 days).

Above 72.75, we still have a chance of choppy action until we can break the highs. To the downside, I can't get that excited until we break this weeks low.

So overall, there's not much in terms of bias or entry points from the bigger picture.



Looking at the weekly profile, most trading this week has been below 55, so if we do hold there, we do have a chance of long side participation.



Despite the lack of direction or commitment, the ranges are still quite good.

Plan
- We are in an indecisive area and potentially a narrowing range.
- watching 55 and 72.75 as potential areas we could see increased participation after a hold
- Given the ranges are good, I'll just try to trade with momentum today because I don't have much else to trade off

Weekly Numbers
Range 2132.75 -> 2167
Value 2139.50 -> 2155
S1 - 2132.75, R1 - 21577.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2144 -> 2165.25
Value 2144.75 > 2157.75
Globex 2161.50 -> 2167

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2163.25

Today only - 2155, 2172.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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30th September

If there’s one thing assured about the upcoming week on the US indices, it’s that it’s definitely going to be interesting. We have increased risk and increased potential reward.




The white boxes are the summer time range, we can see that when we came out of that range, volatility initially increased but since then it’s becoming narrower and narrower.

This is major indecision. It’s potentially a tough market to trade. Fortunately, we have been blessed with a decent daily range – but not with good prices to “play off”. So it’s been a matter of not having a good bias going in but momentum being sufficient that we can just follow the major moves.

For me – I don’t believe anybody can tell which way a market like this will break, although I always favor continuation. Markets tend to work like “coiled springs”, the range gets narrower and narrower building energy until it finally breaks out violently. It’s just a dynamic of speculation. But that’s the technical side – then there’s the non-technical side

The US Indices spanner – Deutsche Bank
Every now & again, we go through periods of increased ‘news risk’. These are times when at any moment, news can come out that will throw the markets sideways. Right now, that risk comes from Deutsche Bank. It appears that a US$15bn fine from the US Department Of Justice could well put the bank out of business. Of course, that is unlikely to happen. What is more likely is that they will get taken over by another bank or bailed out by the German government. It is also possible that they get better terms with the DOJ.

Note that it’s been calculated that restricting Bonuses could save Deutsche Bank $3.2bn a year. Let’s not hold our breath for that announcement…

The actual outcome isn’t what’s important to US Indices traders. The fact is that unlike scheduled economic news releases, there can be news coming out on this subject this at ANY TIME. Trading without listening to a news squawk is pretty dangerous right now. All it takes is an off the cuff comment from a German politician, the DOJ or a bank executive and the market could go into a sudden and violent reaction.

So there’s the increased news risk. Moves can come out of nowhere…



Looking at this weeks S&P 500 futures market profile so far, we see a single ‘Gaussian’ distribution. In other words, we’ve just traded over the same area, over and over. Total indecision.



And this is where it gets interesting/unusual. When the market is directionless, the range is usually low. Right now, we have a directionless market with a good intraday range. The indecision means it’s hard to find a price to trade off based on long term analysis. The range means you probably don’t have to.

Plan of attack
So we have a market that is indecisive yet volatile and we have increased news risk. Going into a day, it will be tough to assess the direction. We may need to take a few attempts to get on board a move but once on board, we should be able to benefit from momentum. With news coming at any time, we need to mitigate risk, so the sensible thing given all this is to scale into positions.

In other words – no need to take a full size position initially – because the news risk could hurt you. Better to take a small position and then as the market moves your way, add to that position.

So on the risk side, we have overall indecision and increased news risk. On the reward side, we have increased range. Scaling into a position will make the most of these conditions.

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3rd January



Still indecisive and still waiting for a break so that we can have some more predictable action. There's really not much to play off from a longer term perspective until we can get out of this range.



On a weekly basis, we are above last weeks value, so we could find some buyers if we move down to there (2155.50) and then bounce up off it. So an eye on that.



Other than that and an eye on Fridays levels, I'm playing "wait and see" and to scale into a trade when (if) the market puts in a run.

Plan
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2132.75 -> 2168.25
Value 2138.50 -> 2155.50
S1 - 2139.25, R1 - 2174.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2135.75 /2150.50 -> 2168.25
Value 2157.75 > 2168.25
Globex 2157.75 -> 2164

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2160.50

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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4th October



The range is really narrowing. It feels like the longest summer ever. I have to wonder if this isn't going to go right through to the election....

Still - there's always that Deutsche Bank thing to come and give us a run one way or the other.



10 point range yesterday - I still feel the same overall. Will look to get into intraday breaks. I'm open minded about today - by no means does yesterday guarantee that the range is dead. So I still have no bias and an eye for a break still.

Plan
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2132.75 -> 2168.25
Value 2138.50 -> 2155.50
S1 - 2139.25, R1 - 2174.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2146.75 /2156.75 -> 2164
Value 2149.25 -> 2153.75
Globex 2153 -> 2159.75

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2153.25

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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5th October



Market is doing the same thing. Not much to add to what we've had the past few days prep.



Yesterday we got back to a healthier range - but the morning was still quite tough. Still, same plan.

Plan
- on the lookout for a break out of the range (it'll happen some time)
- an ear on the news in case something happens with DB (seems the fine is going down)
- no bias - just looking to take advantage of momentum on a short term moves that occur before we finally breakout

Weekly Numbers
Range 2136 -> 2164
Value 2146.50 -> 2164
S1 - 2139.25, R1 - 2174.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2136 -> 2158.25 / 2159.75
Value 2142.25 -> 2157.25
Globex 2141 -> 2147.25

Upper Range - 2158.75-2184,

Settlement – 2144.75

Key Levels: 2184, 2134.75, 2104, 2089.25, 2084, 2006, 1950.75, 1904, 1817.75, 1788.75

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