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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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  #861 (permalink)
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No prep - webinar tonight (3:30am my time) - so sleeping, not trading....

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  #862 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
No prep - webinar tonight (3:30am my time) - so sleeping, not trading....

Big Mike must be paying you well, eh?

Richard
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  #863 (permalink)
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RichardHK View Post
Big Mike must be paying you well, eh?

Handsomely in attaboys....

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  #864 (permalink)
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26th August



Still in the range, we've hit the bottom, so now expecting a move to the top. Possibly a headfake down first.



This week we have basically rotated around last weeks range, so not much to be gained from the profile other than we are at the range low.



We had a push up yesterday but we couldn't hold it. I'm on the lookout for a break of the lows and potentially a return to the lower range. I need to see some volume to short past the range low though so assumption is still going to be any new low for the week is fake.

Plan
- expectation is for continuation up towards this weeks high/value high
- if we push through the range take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday
- As it's Friday - it could be a very slow day (overnight range is very small)


Weekly Numbers
Range 2167.50 –> 2191.50
Value 2172-> 2184.50
S1 – 2167.75, R1 – 2193


Daily Numbers

Range 2167.50 -> 2177.25
Value 2169.75 -> 2175.25
Globex 2172.75 -> 2176.25

Settlement – 2173.50

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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30th August



Still in the range - we had some nice volatility on Friday but it's settled down now, volume was back to 1.2 million. Labor day in the US is on Monday and usually it's the following week that we get the volume back. So we may have to grit our teeth for another few weeks. Hopefully the start of next week will see some excitement.

Still - this is a long time in a tight range, so we have to be on the lookout for a break. For now, we are travelling to the upper side of the range, so bias is upside till we get there. Not marriage. Just bias.



A pretty lumpy distribution last week, so I'm not paying too much attention to the value area - more on the taper around 2187. So anywhere from 2187 to our range high, I'll be wary of a reversal.



SO far overnight we are holding yesterdays value area. It's early yet (4am EST) but if it stays like this, that could mean a very slow ES session.

Plan (this may look familiar)

- expectation is for continuation up towards this weeks high 2187
- if we push through the range take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday

Weekly Numbers
Range 2157.50 > 2191.50
Value 2170.50 -> 2184.50
S1 2153.50, R1 2187.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2169.25 -> 2182.25
Value 2176.75 -> 2181.75
Globex 2177.75 -> 2180.75

Settlement 2179.20

Range Levels 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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31st August

Well - this month won't be missed.



Still in the range, still poor volume. Yesterday was pretty much an inside day. My upside bias still stands as we have hit the bottom of the range and not the top. Still, the range can fail any time.



Very uneven distribution this week - the lower distribution at 2168 is worth keeping an eye on but otherwise, I don't get much from the weekly profile



We had a pullback to 2176.25 which was also value area and the top of Globex. That looks like a strong level and if we can hold it and push down from it, I think we could get some decent participation to the downside.

Plan
- bias is for continuation up towards this weeks high 2187
- Looking to join decent downside participation if 2176 holds with a potential break of the range if it does
- 2168 a hurdle to the downide
- if we push through the range high take continuation trades only on exceptional volume
- otherwise look to play to the other side of value.
- looking for early trades as there is a high chance of choppy action later on
- on the lookout for intraday high volume nodes to trade around, especially if volume is in the same range as yesterday

Weekly Numbers
Range 2164.50 –> 2172.25
Value 2171.75 -> 2181.25
S1 – 2153.50, R1 – 2187.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2168.50 -> 2181.50
Value 2170.75 -> 2176.25
Globex 2172.50 -> 2176.25

Settlement – 2175.25

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Today only - 2168, 2176

Key Levels: 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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1st September



We do seem to be threatening the bottom of the range and this is the first time we've hit the range extreme twice without hitting the other side in between. Volume was up yesterday 1.6 million.

Still - unless everyone comes back from holiday early, chances are it's a headfake and whilst I'm on the lookout for a break out, I still want to see a really good swing commence downside to join in short at this point. Otherwise, I'm long biased long.



Looking from a weekly profile perspective puts the move down into perspective. We've not broken the previous weeks lows yet.



Overnight we've made up a some of the ground lost and currently we are in the middle of the weeks range. So into the open, we need to see if the day session takes another push down. Bottom line is that the more pushes down we have, the weaker it looks to everyone and we should draw more people into the downside.

Plan
- Watching for a breakdown because of the price action but in terms of economic news/holiday season I still see no reason for us not to continue in the range
- It may just be a matter of we've built enough energy in this range and it needs to break
- Watching yesterdays value high with interest as that has held overnight.
- lt's very much a 'wait and see' type of day for me so unless something happens with the rest of the overnight session, I'm going to sit on my hands for the first 15 mins and see if something develops for a decent intraday swing.
- If we just range in the first 15 mins, I'll look to pick off the extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2159.50 > 2182.25
Value 2164.75 -> 2176.75
S1 2153.50, R1 2187.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2159.50 -> 2172.75 / 2176.25
Value 2160.25 -> 2168.25
Globex 2168.25 -> 2177.25

Settlement 2169.50

Range Levels 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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2nd September



Well - we got our break as per yesterdays prep and plenty of people did indeed jump on the move. A couple of very clear opportunities on the way down too - first one was 2 attempts to push up through the open price. The first failed, the second failed after a couple of ticks.

Later on we had a pullback to a step in the profile which also held. So textbook ES action.

But now we are back in the range - so today is all about whether we can continue down or not. We have employment numbers at 8:30 am and if they are good - it's not too helpful for shorts.



From a weekly perspective - not much happened, we probed past last weeks low. Nothing to get excited about.



And from a daily perspective we actually closed a few ticks above the open. So we got volatility but returned to the range.

Plan
- Be wary of low participation especially if we move upside
- Look for another push down with good volume.
- If volume is low off the open let it build for 15 mins as per yesterdays plan
- No real bias - just hoping for downside moves as I feel that is where we have the best chance of participation

Weekly Numbers
Range 2154.75 > 2182.25
Value 2164.50 -> 2176.50
S1 2153.50, R1 2187.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2154.75 -> 2172.35 / 2177.25
Value 2160.50 -> 2169.50
Globex 2164.75 -> 2169.25

Settlement 2167.25

Range Levels 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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6th September

Trader slowly drag themselves into the office today after the break. Caffeine drips all round. Diets commenced. Detoxification started. It often takes the market till early next week to pick up but let's see what we get today. It may be worth hibernating for another 4 days.



We are still in the range, although at the top of it, so wary today of a turn down. We are at last weeks high but not the range high, so an eye on both. Given the probes to the downside, it could be argued we are due one to the upside, which means hitting 2200. So we have fade potential but it's going to pay to let it turn first and not try to pick the top.



Not much to say about last weeks profile, other than to keep an eye on the extremes of value.



On days following a Monday holiday, I consider "overnight" to be everything since Fridays close and for "Yesterday" to be Friday, so that's how I'm going to come up with my daily levels. We have traded within Fridays range so far, so nothing to report since last week.

Plan
- Close to the range highs, so looking for the fade
- Ranges often probe through the highs after probing through the lows, so don't be too fast to fade it
- Holidays are over, so be aware that we could break the range with people coming back - so an eye on overall volume and commitment
- Very much a 'wait and see' day because of the above. No strong bias going in

Weekly Numbers
Range 2154.75 –> 2182.25
Value 2164.50 -> 2177
S1 – 2160.75, R1 – 2189.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2164.25 / 2171.75 -> 2183.75
Value 2174.25 -> 2180.25
Globex 2175 > 2182.25

Settlement – n/a

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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7th September



We are basically in the same place as yesterday....


Quoting 
We are still in the range, although at the top of it, so wary today of a turn down. We are at last weeks high but not the range high, so an eye on both. Given the probes to the downside, it could be argued we are due one to the upside, which means hitting 2200. So we have fade potential but it's going to pay to let it turn first and not try to pick the top.



We have broken last weeks high, but not the range high. Not much to say about the weekly profiles.



We had a late pullback to 2180.50 yesterday, so I'll be watching that today.

Plan

- Close to the range highs, so looking for the fade
- Ranges often probe through the highs after probing through the lows, so don't be too fast to fade it
- Look for a hold of 2180.50 to bring in buyers

Weekly Numbers
Range 2154.75 –> 2182.25
Value 2164.50 -> 2177
S1 – 2160.75, R1 – 2189.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2173 -> 2185.75
Value 2177.25 -> 2183.25
Globex 2181.75 > 2186.25

Settlement – 2184.50

Range Levels – 2143.50-2177.75, 2165.50->2190.75

Key Levels: 2190.75, 2141.50, 2110.75 ,2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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