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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,385 / 914
Last Reply:December 2nd, 2016 (04:59 AM) Attachments:535

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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old July 1st, 2016, 08:36 AM   #821 (permalink)
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1st July

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We are now at the top of the medium term range. So looking to see if we can really pop the highs or if we'll roll over to the bottom of the range.

It's 4th July on Monday though - so it may well be a lackluster day because people might be on vacation today.

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As we can see, still a steady march up, but for the first time, there's been no progression in the Globex session. That's more of a heads up than a point at failure but the top of our range is 90.75 and we topped out pretty close to it yesterday and overnight.

Plan
- Proceed with caution as volume might be low today
- As we are at an area the top of the range, we could see a lot of nudging around, let that resolve before jumping in.
- best scenario - build volume in a range and then play in the direction of a break
- would also consider a long off a pullback to yesterdays VAL

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2091.25
Value 1981.50 - 2059
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 2056.50 / 2061 -> 2091.25
Value 2071.50 -> 2091
Globex 2081.50 -> 2089.50

Settlement - 2090.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 5th, 2016, 07:44 AM   #822 (permalink)
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5th July

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We are at the top of our medium term range (white box), so as usual, the best trade will be once that appears to have been resolved and speculators jump on one side.

With Brexit behind us, we may now be able to move on to new highs to 2200. Otherwise it's a drop and carry on with the range.

At the top here, it will obviously be a trickier trade because whilst the tops of the range remains unresolved, we'll have less clear direction.

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Last week was thin all the way up, so I'm not really too bothered about any weekly levels this week.

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Today is the first day after a holiday. So I'm considering everything from Sunday to now as "overnight" and looking at Friday as "yesterday". We are already well below Fridays low but that's on low volume action, so I don't want to read too much into it but we do have a chance of an initial pop up off the open.

Plan
- No bias as we are at the top of the range, waiting for it to be resolved.
- Unless volume comes in off the open, lay off for the first 15 mins and see what develops
- As long as the area stays unresolved (no high volume moves), look to play off the intraday volume profile and Fridays levels
- Basically, wait for the market to show it's hand

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2100.75
Value 1981.50 - 2064
S1 - 2018.25, R1 - 2137.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2081.50 / 2089 -> 2100.75
Value 2092.50-> 2097.50
Globex 2082 -> 2104.75

Settlement - 2096.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 6th, 2016, 06:32 AM   #823 (permalink)
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6th July

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We are coming down off the top of the range but we really didn't see major selling yesterday. Volume was decent 1.8m contracts but it just didn't feel like speculators were jumping in short.

So I have a short bias but I'm not "all in" on that.


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As you can see, we worked our way down overnight on Monday evening but yesterday was quite a rangebound day, there was no sign that sellers came in force. We've made some more moves to the downside so far last night and we are sitting above last weeks value high at 2064.

So I'm half decided between the top of the range not being resolved and the possibility we may just grind down to the bottom of the range. So for me, the safest thing to do:

Plan
- ready to short of we break 2064 or overnight low and we see some volume. Look for a good run down in that case
- as per yesterday, if we don't see a break - let the market play out. If we see a range, play the headfakes and then the eventual break

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2100.75
Value 1981.50 - 2064
S1 - 2018.25, R1 - 2137.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2072.40 / 2086.50 -> 2104.75
Value 2075 -> 2081
Globex 2067.50 -> 2085.75

Settlement - 2082.75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 7th, 2016, 05:30 AM   #824 (permalink)
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7th July

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As we can see we’ve been in this range on the S&P Futures since March. There’s been no real fundamental reason for us to break out, so each time we hit the top, we roll back down. We can see that the post-Brexit move did little more than test the range the S&P Futures have been in since March. I’d normally have a strong short bias to the low of the range at this point but I do feel we have a chance of a move to 2200 because of the way the market shrugged off the Brexit news. The market didn’t know how the vote would go, now it does and so maybe that’s enough uncertainty off the table to allow the S&P Futures to rise once more.

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Here we have the Weekly Market Profiles (TPO Charts) for the S&P Futures. We can see that the trading is very uniform this week which lends itself to fading the extremes. We have a decent range, so I will not be fading based on the price hitting the extremes but rather let other traders do the heavy lifting and then jump on board once the extreme has been “shaken out” and direction is clear.

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Yesterday we had a typical probe down through the overnight low. It’s normal for the S&P Futures to do that and typical of the sort of “wait for intraday action” to develop we get when there’s no clear commitment either way.

Plan
  • We are watching for signs of clear commitment from speculators either side to break the range. Obviously there may be a test of a key level first (we are close to the highs after all) but it should be shown with a large swing in the market with exceptional volume.
  • Pay attention at yesterdays high/low/value high/value low
  • Until that happens – and it may not happen for a few days, we have to use yesterdays and developing intraday levels to play off and not have too high an expectancy of a large range.
  • Be patient. There is no clear bias at this point.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2065.75 – 2104.75
Value 2076.75 – 2101.75
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers

Range 2065.75 -> 2093.75
Value 2074.50 -> 2092
Globex 2088.50-> 2094.50

Settlement – 2094

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 8th, 2016, 08:10 AM   #825 (permalink)
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8th July

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For today, read yesterday..... still at the top of the range, and no break either way. It's Friday too, 7AM EST and we are 60,000 contracts below average.

So whilst we do have a tightly coiled week this week, I'm not too hopeful that we'll see that energy released today.

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
Here we have the Weekly Market Profiles (TPO Charts) for the S&P Futures. We can see that the trading is very uniform this week which lends itself to fading the extremes. We have a decent range, so I will not be fading based on the price hitting the extremes but rather let other traders do the heavy lifting and then jump on board once the extreme has been “shaken out” and direction is clear.

Same today!

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Overnight action has been within yesterdays range, which again indicates little direction from the Asian/European session. So again, it doesn't point to a high probability of a break

Plan
- Bias neutral - if volume is weak, shorts above 2100-2104.75, longs below yesterdays low and 2070
- if it does break out, look to follow the move as we are in a tight week
- if we have a really slow start and still slow at 11am EST, I'm done for the week. It may pop in the afternoon but I'm a morning trader.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2104.75
Value 2079.75 – 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2081.75 -> 2102
Value 2082.50 -> 2094.25
Globex 2087.50-> 2097.50

Settlement – 2092

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 11th, 2016, 08:15 AM   #826 (permalink)
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11th July

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We finally got a decent pop upside, so hopefully we are now on our way to 2200. So for me the game today is to look for signs of continuation to the upside.

Ideally, we'd see a pullback to the old highs which is really anywhere from 2096.50-2110.75. That in my opinion would give speculators more confidence to jump in on the long side.

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Based on last weeks profile, 2101.25 saw a very big step in the profile with very little trading above, so a fall back to that area would be idea.

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Not much to get from the daily profiles but I will be watching Fridays highs/lows/valuer

Plan
- We may fail downside, in which case it'll be downward move with high volume
- if not presume any downside move is a test & that a test off a key level will bring in volume to the long side
- any move up off the open could be a grind we have already tested Fridays value area, so our test may already be done. If so, we might not get the same response as an intraday test but prepared to just jump on any up move off the open.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2125.50
Value 2077.25– 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2087.50 / 2103.50 -> 2125.50
Value 2109 -> 2122
Globex 2120 -> 2133

Settlement – 2120.50

Today only 2096.50-2110.75 (area for pullback)

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 12th, 2016, 08:48 AM   #827 (permalink)
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12th July

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Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We finally got a decent pop upside, so hopefully we are now on our way to 2200. So for me the game today is to look for signs of continuation to the upside.

Ideally, we'd see a pullback to the old highs which is really anywhere from 2096.50-2110.75. That in my opinion would give speculators more confidence to jump in on the long side.

Same deal again today. Yesterday we pulled back to the prior days high and from there we saw speculators jump in.


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We still have 2101.25 to look out for below, so if there is a larger pullback, I'll be watching there for support.

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The profiles show what we'd expect, progression upwards. Obviously we'll still swing both ways intraday but I'll be watching the regular daily values (high/low/value) to see if buyers step in.

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This is yesterdays action. You can see the green line at the bottom, that's the prior days high. The bottom frame contains the cumulative delta. What you can see
- big shift up in delta as we move up from the green line
- large amount of contracts traded in the push up from the green line (168,000)
- large size swing in the push up from the green line (36 ticks).

That is typical of speculators jumping on a move and what this prep is all about.

- Watching areas other people will have their eye on
- looking out for lots of speculators to jump on board when the level holds
- taking a chunk out of that move.

Lesser moves do occur when we move away from less popular levels as less people have an eye on those levels.

Plan
- looking for the market to find support at a key level (or thereabouts) and for volume to come in
- upside biased but with an eye on the market taking a break for the day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2125.50
Value 2077.25– 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2120 / 2125.25 > 2136.75
Value 2129.75 -> 2135.75
Globex 2128.50 -> 2141.75

Settlement – 2130.25

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Old July 12th, 2016, 08:58 AM   #828 (permalink)
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12th July

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Yesterday we had



Same deal again today. Yesterday we pulled back to the prior days high and from there we saw speculators jump in.


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We still have 2101.25 to look out for below, so if there is a larger pullback, I'll be watching there for support.

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The profiles show what we'd expect, progression upwards. Obviously we'll still swing both ways intraday but I'll be watching the regular daily values (high/low/value) to see if buyers step in.

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This is yesterdays action. You can see the green line at the bottom, that's the prior days high. The bottom frame contains the cumulative delta. What you can see
- big shift up in delta as we move up from the green line
- large amount of contracts traded in the push up from the green line (168,000)
- large size swing in the push up from the green line (36 ticks).

That is typical of speculators jumping on a move and what this prep is all about.

- Watching areas other people will have their eye on
- looking out for lots of speculators to jump on board when the level holds
- taking a chunk out of that move.

Lesser moves do occur when we move away from less popular levels as less people have an eye on those levels.

Plan
- looking for the market to find support at a key level (or thereabouts) and for volume to come in
- upside biased but with an eye on the market taking a break for the day

Weekly Numbers
Range 2065.75 – 2125.50
Value 2077.25– 2101.25
S1 – 2018.25, R1 – 2137.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2120 / 2125.25 > 2136.75
Value 2129.75 -> 2135.75
Globex 2128.50 -> 2141.75

Settlement – 2130.25

Key Levels: 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

Awesome Thread you have here Peter - just bumped in to it by a coincidence..... Excellent work

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Old July 12th, 2016, 10:18 AM   #829 (permalink)
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Awesome Thread you have here Peter - just bumped in to it by a coincidence..... Excellent work

Thanks for taking time to say that.

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Old July 12th, 2016, 10:21 AM   #830 (permalink)
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Nothing to do with my prep but here's a musical interlude....

Just to show I have a life outside of trading, here's my little boy (OK - he's 14 and twice my size) playing the drums at his music school this weekend.



He thinks anything over 20 views on YouTube makes him a superstar... so........ he'll get a kick if we can get the count up a bit...

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