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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #811 (permalink)
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Sort of - after 18 or so years here, I find my self in a situation where my ex wife (well not ex yet but seperated for 13 years) will now not sign for my marriage visa. Getting a divorce here can be problematic....

I could get a guardian visa for my lovely 6 year old daughter with my new wife (well, she will be my new wife 15 mins after my divorce) but the local Amphur office needs to interview the child and they won't do that till she's 7, which is October.

I can't get a guardian visa for my 14 year old that lives with me because I need his mother to assist....



Picture me in a bar surrounded by women all trying to kick my ass at Connect Four and having to buy me a drink when they lose. Emotions were running high and I was called an asshole too many times to count, apparently for 'being sneaky'. For those in the know - Connect Four skills are signs of a miss-spent youth in Thailand. Suffice to say I am a Zen Master (and no longer welcome at a certain bar in Phnom Penh).



No - last time I was in a Casino was at Sentosa, Singapore. I used to love playing Black Jack but I think trading killed gambling for me. As I walk round now, I see nothing but the fact that if I sit there long enough I will lose. Mind you, the fact the minimum was $50 a hand didn't help...



Cambodians I've met have been as nice as people anywhere else in the world if you are nice to them. It is a poor country, so you have to keep your wits about you.

Anyway - upshot is I may not get the 90 day tourist visa I want. Not sure what will happen at that point but it may mean I have to enrol in a school in Thailand to improve my Thai and get an education visa until my little sweetheart turns 7.

That could mean weeks in Cambodia with 4 pairs of underpants, 3 pairs of shorts, 2 pairs of jeans and a handful of t-shirts.

Either way, I will try to make the most of it ;-)

On the bright side, I have been offered drugs numerous times in the street here and whilst I don't partake, I'll take it as a back-handed compliment that at 46, I don't look like an old fart...


If they won't give you a 90 day in Cambodia, and will only give you a 15 day. Then you could try getting a 90 day in Laos( Vientiane).

I was living in Thailand during the coup, and from my experience( and from stories heard) you have more chance in getting a 90 day Visa from Laos than Cambodia. They cracked down more on Visas issued from Cambodia because that was where alot of the "overstayers"/ illegal workers would go to get their 30 day Visa exempt stamp, instead of a proper Visa.

The other option could be to fly in and out of Thailand and get a 30 day upon entry( eg BKK to KL to BKK). You should still get away with doing that multiple times.

* I haven't stayed up with the latest Visa sagas in the last 12 months, that was my experience from 2014/2015

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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  #812 (permalink)
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KahunaDog View Post
DT, how dangerous is Cambodia.?

Not so much now I'm not there. I didn't have any problems but if you walked around drunk with a pocket full of cash at 3am, I'm fairly sure someone would relieve you of it.


Neo1 View Post
If they won't give you a 90 day in Cambodia, and will only give you a 15 day. Then you could try getting a 90 day in Laos( Vientiane).

I was living in Thailand during the coup, and from my experience( and from stories heard) you have more chance in getting a 90 day Visa from Laos than Cambodia. They cracked down more on Visas issued from Cambodia because that was where alot of the "overstayers"/ illegal workers would go to get their 30 day Visa exempt stamp, instead of a proper Visa.

The other option could be to fly in and out of Thailand and get a 30 day upon entry( eg BKK to KL to BKK). You should still get away with doing that multiple times.

* I haven't stayed up with the latest Visa sagas in the last 12 months, that was my experience from 2014/2015

All turned out fine in the end.... Thanks for that though.

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  #813 (permalink)
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23rd June

Today has huge news risk. That means at any time during the day, we could see exit poll data that shifts the market suddenly in any direction.

So to me, the plan is to stay on the sidelines and wait for that to occur. If it doesn't, then no trade. If it does, I'll attempt to ride the move.

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  #814 (permalink)
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24th

An interesting day ahead for sure. I'm sitting to one side but instead of explaining why, let me relate a story to you.

A London based trader called me yesterday and asked how I'd approach the market if there was indeed a Brexit. I told him it's best avoided for various reasons. Mostly because of the brutal pullbacks that occur at volatile periods like this.

Now - as I mentioned, this guy is in London, so he stayed awake late and traded once the count started coming in.

He called me today at 11:30am London time - after a night without sleep (apart from falling asleep at the mouse once). The upshot of his trading - he didn't lose any money. He also didn't make any money. His broker made money with all the trades he did. But he broke even.

Basically, the brutal pullbacks took him out, even though he was right about the direction.

So if you do plan to trade today - keep this in mind! Last night might look easy on your 15 min

He's French too - so I told him he'd better pack his bags and get out of Dodge ;-)

Pete

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  #815 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
24th

An interesting day ahead for sure. I'm sitting to one side but instead of explaining why, let me relate a story to you.

A London based trader called me yesterday and asked how I'd approach the market if there was indeed a Brexit. I told him it's best avoided for various reasons. Mostly because of the brutal pullbacks that occur at volatile periods like this.

Now - as I mentioned, this guy is in London, so he stayed awake late and traded once the count started coming in.

He called me today at 11:30am London time - after a night without sleep (apart from falling asleep at the mouse once). The upshot of his trading - he didn't lose any money. He also didn't make any money. His broker made money with all the trades he did. But he broke even.

Basically, the brutal pullbacks took him out, even though he was right about the direction.

So if you do plan to trade today - keep this in mind! Last night might look easy on your 15 min

He's French too - so I told him he'd better pack his bags and get out of Dodge ;-)

Pete

I've learned with my own money not to trade this kind of highly volatile events. In most cases you get trapped into that trade-after-trade cycle and, as you say, who comes out on top is your broker.

I think the more experienced and capitalised traders can benefit from this volatility but people with relatively few years trading under their belt would do best by sitting on their hands.

EDIT: of course I'm not suggesting you are inexperienced, and it is perhaps telling that some of the experienced traders such as yourself take the position of 'no position'...

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  #816 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
24th

Basically, the brutal pullbacks took him out, even though he was right about the direction.

So if you do plan to trade today - keep this in mind! Last night might look easy on your 15 min

He's French too - so I told him he'd better pack his bags and get out of Dodge ;-)

Pete

Yes sir, it looks easy on the left side of the chart

Cheers, ride safe and keep the rubber side down

-William

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  #817 (permalink)
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27th June

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Thursday was a ban on exit polls - so no real news then.

Friday we saw a wild ride overnight but relatively sedate in the day time.

For the next few days, I'm "100% non-technical" and looking out to exploit/not lose money on "politicians mouth syndrome". Right now EU, German, UK and US politicians can easily send this market flying with an off the cuff comment. That could go either way.

Friday was pitiful in terms of leadership in the UK. What the markets need is for some semblance that the UK government isn't running around like a headless chicken. So far, Merkel has been conciliatory but there's not really been much out of the UK government other than 2 major the parties turning on themselves.

So I don't see the point of being in a trade unless it is off the back of a strong news driven move. Mostly because I know that once I get in off a technical level, there could be a strong news-driven move against me.

In terms of longer term outlook, we didn't really break out of our intermediate term range yet (white box). If the market does collapse, then I think time is better spent looking for good long term positions. So I'll most likely spend my trading day looking for stocks that got oversold in the past few days.

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  #818 (permalink)
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28th June

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As we drop, it's worth bearing in mind that bargains will appear. I can't quite wrap my head around Capita going down so much because if government work increases (which it will to handle the Brexit), then Capita stand to get some of the contracts. Airlines have never been the best stocks but Whitbread, Associated Foods, Domino's Pizza are now in my portfolio.

Not that this is investment advice.

I'm buying on the way down. I would love to see the S&P at 1700 as I think that would represent a massive opportunity. I fear like many dips of late, the market just won't be able to gather significant momentum and wont give us that sort of opportunity.

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The low of our medium term range was 2012.75. I'm looking for sellers to step in around that area if we continue up. If that happens, I hope we will get another good run down.

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Overnight we have stayed in yesterdays day session range. So we could be stabilizing and that means looking at more technical levels. After yesterdays drop 1996.75 acted as resistance. So I'll have an eye on that if we come down to there today.

Plan
- Look for signs of the market stabilizing
- Still with an ear to the UK/European news
- look for shorts at 2012.75 area and expect good downside participation if it holds
- Also look for a reaction at 1996.75 as well as yesterdays extremes/value
- Not in a hurry to place a trade, look for momentum to build and then join. If no momentum, no trade as I want to be onside ASAP because of the news risk

Weekly Numbers
Range (not interested in the weeklies after Fridays drop)
Value
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 1981.50 -> 2010.75 / 2022.50
Value 1984.50 -> 1995.50
Globex 1981.50 -> 2008.75

Settlement - 1985

Today only 1996.75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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  #819 (permalink)
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29th June

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We are back into our range, volume is high but dropping. I'm still wary of news events but now presuming we are travelling to the top of the range.

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In terms of the weeks profile, we have a larger distribution from 2001.25 to around 2014. I'll be watching that area if we move down.

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Yesterday was a choppy day with a very late breakout and really not much on the table in the first swing off the open. I was waiting int he AM for a break but gave up in the end.

Plan
- Biased upside, so looking for a downside test with volume following to the upside
- This is a decent move up overnight, so wary of an adjustment down off the open
- Still looking to catch a momentum move to clear my entry price quickly (so no range plays), to limit the potential impact of any unexpected news

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2043.25
Value 1993.50 - 2029
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 1981.50 / 2006 -> 2027
Value 2008.25 -> 2018.25
Globex 2022.50 -> 2043.25

Settlement - 2028.50

Today only 2001.25, 2014

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 29th, 2016 at 09:16 AM.
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  #820 (permalink)
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30th June

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Today should be interesting. It's the end of the month, so it's quite possible we get an end of month push up. More importantly, the stock markets seem to have brushed off the Brexit. As we approach the highs again, it may be with the Brexit decided and shrugged off (for now), that we get a pop that now takes us to new highs and onwards towards 2200.

Not necessarily in one day but we may be in the right conditions to escape the medium term range.

Note that volume is declining as we move up but it's still above average with over 2 million traded yesterday.

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The weekly profile doesn't help us much.

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We can see a nice march up, we may need to take a breather and we also have to consider the possibility that as we are close to the top of our medium term range, we could be done to the upside for now.

Plan
- Still long biased
- looking for plays off yesterdays range/value range to give us more participation than a straight up move off the open.
- a straight up off the open will be played more cautiously than a test and bounce.
- Taking care as we get towards 2091. Will not take longs into it but would take longs after we get through it
- If we move down, only participate downside on excessive volume - in other words to show the top of the range has really failed with serious volume
- looking to scale in if we can breach the all time highs

Weekly Numbers
Range 1981.50 - 2074.74
Value 1981.50 - 2029
S1 - R1


Daily Numbers
Range 2022.75 / 2042.25 -> 2064.50
Value 2051.50 -> 2064.50
Globex 2056.50 -> 2074.75

Settlement - 2066,75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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