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DTs Pre Market Prep
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DTs Pre Market Prep

  #791 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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13th June

Note - new levels below - the Sept contract is about 9.25 points below June.

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Much more volume on Friday AND A down day. So today looking for signs we are done to the upside and now heading down to the bottom of the range (larger white box) to 2011.50.

If we do move down, we should pay attention the last time we pushed down (2 week low) to 2073.75. Past that, all clear from the perspective of the longer term charts.

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VIX is moving up too, so be on the look out for increase volatility compared to last Wednesday (before the rollover).

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To the upside, we have a lower distribution above us at 86. So watch that area if we do move up.

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Relatively speaking, Friday was a decent down day if you include overnight. So we have to look for a snap back up from the open. That may or may not follow through it if does happen, so watch out Fridays value/extremes if we move up.

Plan
- look for a snap up off the open with caution that it may just be a temporary reaction
- if not (or if the snap up fails), watch for a down move with volume for a continuation from Friday
- expect higher volatility/lower liquidity - but be ready to adjust if it reverts to rangebound

In effect, looking for decent volatility with volume to follow.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.50 -> 2110.75
Value - 2094.25 -> 2109.25
S1 - 2074.25 R1 - 2105.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2079.50 / 2094 -> 2105.25
Value 2085.50 -> 2093.50
Globex 2077 -> 2084.75

Settlement - 2087.25

Today only 2086

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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  #792 (permalink)
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14th June

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Decent volume again and another down day, this is what we were looking for yesterday to confirm that we are likely to head to the bottom of the white box. So I'm biased short with a target of 2013 (slightly adjusted up from 2011.50).

Obviously, the market swings both ways on most days, so the bias doesn't mean I'll only take longs - it's just my contextual bigger picture.

We had a decent push down, so of course, we could pause a day or have a small up day and the bias would still be intact.

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Looking above we have a step in the profile around 2078 and last weeks low to look our for as potential resistance if we take a move up.

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On the split daily profiles, I'll be watching yesterdays low and the value area as potential resistance.

Plan
- Continued expectation of decent volatility
- Downside bias
- Would prefer an upside test of one of our levels and then to see sellers come in - that would be my highest participation scenario
- very cautious with any trades to the long side today
- also wary of missing the boat on any high volume down move off the open, so looking to scale into that

Weekly Numbers
Range 2079.50 -> 2110.75
Value - 2094.25 -> 2109.25
S1 - 2074.25 R1 - 2105.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2068.75 -> 2089.25
Value 2075.75 -> 2085.25
Globex 2060.25 -> 2071.75

Settlement - 2087.25

Today only 2069.75

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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  #793 (permalink)
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15th June

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Volume very high yesterday but we really didn't get anywhere in the day session - we closed just above the open. So we had some buyers stepping in just above 2050. I'm still biased to the downside.

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As per yesterday, I still have my eye on that upper distribution at 2078 and last weeks low at 79.25.

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Overnight we've stayed within yesterdays range (well 2 ticks through the top) and volume as of writing is 34k above average - that's not massive but it does look like participation is decent.

So with an overall short bias, I'm actually neutral into today because we aren't that far from settlement.

Plan
- if we are still within yesterdays range at the open - look to play off the high/low and value.
- if we can pop the range upside with volume, try to get long but not too close to 78. Add above 79.25
- expect good participation if the yesterdays high holds and expect that to give us a new low for the week.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2054.75 -> 2089.25
Value - 2055.25 -> 2077.75
S1 - 2074.25 R1 - 2105.50


Daily Numbers

Range 2054.75 -> 2072.50
Value 2056.75 -> 2065.25
Globex 2059.75 -> 2073.25

Settlement - 2066

Today only 2078-2079.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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  #794 (permalink)
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16th June

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Still biased downside. We have 3 overlapping days, so we could be settling into a range.

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The profile this week is fairly evenly distributed so if we do head up from here, watch 2074. If we do turn there, then I'd expect us to range 56-74 for a while. Otherwise looking for a breakdown and continuation down.

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To the upside here, I'll be looking for less volatility and slightly tougher action until 2074. To the downside, I'll be looking for a decent run down, so today for me is all about getting out of this 2 day range and seeing some participation come in when we do.

Plan
- Look to join a break or 54.75 for sellers to come in
- If we move up - look for a reversal at yesterdays low/value low and if so - bias short with a view to breaking the range.
- Be wary of longs, especially as we approach the weeks/yesterdays key levels

Weekly Numbers
Range 2051.75 -> 2089.25
Value - 2055.25 -> 2074.75
S1 - 2074.25 R1 - 2105.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2059.75 / 2061 -> 2079.50
Value 2070 -> 2075
Globex 2051.75 -> 2065

Settlement - 2063.50

Today only 2078-2079.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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  #795 (permalink)
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17th June

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We had a nice leg up yesterday after the initial run down but only 1.26M contracts traded, so I think it's a bit early to call this down move open and I'm still looking for a move down to 12.75 (bottom of white box).

Of course, after any big up day, we can get a quick counter-reaction off the open. That would be helped by any big continuation overnight - which we haven't had. So based on this alone, I'm neutral going in to today.

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In terms of weekly profile we are currently right in the middle of the week - so not the best spot for value based traders. We could end the week on a low note and just chop around today. Based on this - I'll be watching the weekly value area 2055, 2075 for a reaction and not so interested in the middle.

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I don't see much to play off. I think today it's a matter of taking cue's off intraday action.

Plan
- Neutral bias
- look for a snap down off the open & if it does happen - jump on it
- look for reactions at 2075 & 2055
- other than that, keep in mind that we could have a low volume low range day and wait for volume to give us a clue

On days where we start in the middle like this, I'd rather not have a couple of failed attempts as we might not have the volatility to make up for them.

Weekly Numbers

Range 2040.75 -> 2089.25
Value - 2055 -> 2074.75
S1 - 2074.25 R1 - 2105.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2040.75 -> 2071.50
Value 2048.75 -> 2067.25
Globex 2056.25> 2074.75

Settlement - 2070.50

Today only 2078-2079.25

Long Term 2096, 2090.75, 2012.75, 1957.50, 1910.75, 1824.50, 1795.50

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 17th, 2016 at 06:50 AM.
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  #796 (permalink)
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No prep today. Stuck in a casino in Cambodia....

Long story....

Should be back on Thursday.

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  #797 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
No prep today. Stuck in a casino in Cambodia....

Long story....

Should be back on Thursday.

...Visa run?

"Free markets work because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or incentives for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can"
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  #798 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Stuck in a casino in Cambodia....

Long story....

This demands a follow-up post with details

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  #799 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
No prep today. Stuck in a casino in Cambodia....

Long story....

Should be back on Thursday.

Do you play in the casino, out of curiosity?

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  #800 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
No prep today. Stuck in a casino in Cambodia....

Long story....

Should be back on Thursday.

haha, it's a story that needs to be told. I would love to visit Cambodia, also myanmar is on the list and go back to thailand someday, beautiful places, beautiful people.

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