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DTs Pre Market Prep

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10th February



Yesterday we were looking for signs the market had bottomed out and we didn't get that. What we got indecisive. Overnight, we have seen a push up, so I'm looking for signs of continuation at the open. We settledvery close to the prior days settlement.



If we do move up, the first hurdle I have is 1894, which is the bottom of the distribution from last week. To the downside, we have the top of last weeks distribution which is at 1855.



Looking at the past few days, it looks like we are setting up for range bound behavior. So into the open today, I'm wary of the market dropping down back into the range of the past 2 days.

So my 2 scenarios for today
- continuation upwards to complete the range at 1929
- move down back into the range of the past 2 days and move sideways within it


Weekly Numbers
Range 1821.75 -> 1884.50
Value - 1833.75 -> 1854.25
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers
Range 1825.75-> 1863.75
Value 1836.25 -> 18852.75
Globex 1838.50 -> 1870.50

Settlement - 1848.35
Today only - 1894, 1855

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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11th February



We did fall back into the range yesterday and overnight we've dropped below it, through the 1814 level. We haven't been as low as the January low of 1804.25 but we should keep an eye on that area.

So I am looking at 2 scenarios -
1 a drop and a failed test back up to see us make more downside moves
2 market has tested below 1814 - we may go as low as a test of 04.25 but the downside can't hold and we then head back up to 1929



Above us the 1833.25 is where the bulk of volume has traded this week, so if we hit that, we may find that's as high as we can go.



Not much to say based on the split profile. We have put in a large gap down from yesterdays low, so careful with shorts off the open (or any time from now) as we may snap back when the US stock markets start trading. An early initial upside swing would be a good opportunity jump on.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1808.75 -> 1884.50
Value - 1833-> 1862.25
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers

Range 1838.50 / 1843.50 -> 1877.75
Value 1856.75 -> 1869.25
Globex 1808.75 -> 1847.25

Settlement - 1846.75
Today only - 1833.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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12th Feburary



We are still in the same place as yesterday. Still looking to see if we can push down through the range we have been in this year and make headway downwards or if we'll return to the range high of 1929. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much willing to trade down past the years low.

We are just below the 1843 level overnight so that's the first hurdle to the upside from here.



Yeseterday we were watching 33.25 and we got as high as 33.50 in the AM and then pushed through into the close. That doesn't look so significant today from the weekly profile but we have the day high on our list anyway today the middle distribution from the profile is below us a 1825.25. So I'm watching that as potential support.



We can see that overnight we've had a push up, so there could be an initial counterswing down when the stocks open.

Scenarios

1 - swing down off the open with little strength and then a push up, eventually testing 1929 (maybe not today)
2 - push down through 1804 to search for sellers.

For scenario 2 - I'll play the downside but I think there's been no sign of sellers there so far, so I think (opinion only) that any push through will fail. That's just opinion, I'm not married to it....

I see no reason for a true push down to fail before 1804 but sellers backed off at 1805 yesterday so if we get close, watch out for a sudden lack of guts on behalf of the sellers.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1802.50 -> 1884.50
Value - 1823.25-> 1860.75
S1 - 1847, R1 - 1922

Daily Numbers
Range 1802.25 / 1805 -> 1834.75
Value 1811-> 1836
Globex 1822.50 -> 1843.75

Settlement - 1824.50
Today only - 1835.35

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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15th Feb - US Bank Holiday - no trading today for me

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16th Feb



Bigger picture is that we have tested the January lows. Now expectation should be that we now move up to the top of the range which is 1929.

We could fail and if we do fail before testing 1929, then we have a better chances of actually breaking the January lows and make serious headway downwards.



We have a large distribution of trade that tops off at 1853.50. If we move down, I'll be watching that for support.



I don't put too much stock into what happened yesterday but I will be watching the daily low. I tend to ignore the numbers from any holiday days but we don't have much to play off and this is the low of the "gap up". I'll be ignoring the value area from yesterday.

So overall expecting us to carry on up to 1929. I am expecting any moves down with low/regular volume to find support and be the springboard for a move up. We have had a big move up since Fridays close, so we could see an initial move down.

I'm not married to the upside, but I'm in a fairly serious relationship with it.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1802.50 -> 1884.50
Value - 1825.25-> 1859.75
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range
Value
Globex 1865 -> 1892.75 (basically everything since the Sunday open)

Settlement -
Today only -

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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17th February



We are still headed up and the higher we get, the closer we get to the point that any down move can be considered failure to reach the top of the range. So 1929 is the top of the range but there's no way to know at this point if it'll reverse or carry on up. So I'll let it reverse or break and then try to get on whichever way it unfolds.



Looking at this profile, we have a bell shaped distribution and so we have to be wary of falling back into that and rotating for a few days. So if we go below this weeks value area, I'll be expecting chop.



Looking at the split profile, we can see that we didn't make much progression to the upside. In fact all of the moves up to this level seem to have occurred in the European session with the US session just holding the gains. I would feel more comfortable about the upside if we could make headway in the US session today.

In summary
- overall bias upside to 1929
- if globex carries on up, I'd expect some sore of pullback off the open and I'll go long that as long as there's not too much volume
- a move straight up off the open would be joined with caution
- if we move down off the open, I will ignore it unless there is a lot of volume- it's countertrend in the short term
- look out for chop 1870-1891.50 if we do head down

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1901.75
Value - 1878 -> 1891.50
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1870.35 -> 1892.50 / 1892.75
Value 1878.50 >-> 1892.50 / 1892.75
Globex 1881.50 -> 1901.75 (and climbing)

Settlement - 1888.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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18th January



A simple day today. We've hit the top of the range, so now we are waiting to see if we can break the range or head back down to 1800.



From a weekly profile perspective it looks like we should get acceleration to the downside if we break 1915.



Not much to say based on the daily profiles other than confirming potential support at 1915 and acceleration below.

Safest bet today is to wait for this area to be resolved and then get in. There tends to be a lot of pushing and pulling in major areas like this and there's a lot of false signals. When it breaks - stops get triggered and jumping on is easier.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1933.50
Value - 1866.50 -> 1901
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1881.50 / 1904 -> 1927.50
Value 1916.50 >-> 1924.50
Globex 1916.75-> 1933.50

Settlement - 1922.75
Today only - 1915

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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19th February



The range is still unresolved in my opinion. We do seem to be holding the top of the range but sellers have not shown up yet, so my bias at this point is still neutral and still waiting for volume to come in one way or the other.



The upper distribution for this week was extended down yesterday. I was expecting sellers to come in on a break of 1915 but they didn't, it was just a probe. I'm still looking for this area to break with volume for a short bias.



Yesterdays range was small and we had the lowest volume for some time. So there's indecision. My plan is to take small bites unless I can see a decisive move.

If I had to have a bias, it would be downside as we are in an overall range - but I think it's worth being patient as it's easy to get caught out at the extremes.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1933.50
Value - 1866.50 -> 1918
S1 - 1812.75 R1 - 1894.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1911.25 -> 1927 / 1933.50
Value 1914.50 >-> 1921.50
Globex 1911.75-> 1922.75

Settlement - 1916.50
Today only - 1913.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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22nd February

I'm, a frustrated trader right now. Internet has been intermittent for over a week and the ISP have no clue what is wrong. It's disconnecting 4-5 times an hour anywhere between 1 and 45 minutes at a time. So I'm not trading but I am watching.... Sort of a market voyeur...



We couldn't hold above 1929 this week but have popped up in the Globex session. Of course that is on low volume and we could very easily lose all that at the US open. So into the open - looking for signs of a snap back down or that we can hold, with 29 being the reference point.



We've not traded anywhere much overnight and as we speak, the Eurex exchange is errrr.... broken. No reasons given yet but it's off & they are working on it. Not even sure what to make of that. Note that we managed to settle on Friday just 1 point above Thursday.



We have stair stepped up so far, so we do have a few downside reference points building below us but it's a bit early to put these up for consideration into the open. I'd like to see us consolidate those gains by trading some volume at a price, building some positions and giving us an area worth defending as we open up.

So - into the open - if we are still above 29, looking to see if we can hold above it or if we lose these overnight losses. We could lose the overnight losses before then in which case I'd be a little more inclined to short close to the open. We've spent a few days around this 29 area, so we could get shaken out either way before the market decides whether to stay in the range or start moving up again.

IF my internet was reliable, I'd be more concerned about getting caught up in shakeouts than making $$$. As it is I'm an armchair quarterback today....

Weekly Numbers
Range 1865 ->1933.50
Value - 1867.50 -> 1917
S1 - 1880.75 R1 - 1937.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1898.50-> 1916 / 1922.75
Value 1907 >-> 1914.50
Globex 1908.25-> 1938.75

Today only - 1914.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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DionysusToast View Post
We've not traded anywhere much overnight and as we speak, the Eurex exchange is errrr.... broken. No reasons given yet but it's off & they are working on it. Not even sure what to make of that.

I'm assuming technical, Xetra is fine.

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bkk888
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True docsis?

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True docsis?

Yes - you getting the same issues by any chance?

If no - how much to come and trader from your house????

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I'm assuming technical, Xetra is fine.

Yes - a technical glitch - quite comforting to all those with positions on at the time, I'm sure.

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DionysusToast View Post
Yes - a technical glitch - quite comforting to all those with positions on at the time, I'm sure.

Indeed, but everything is relative. In volatile markets there will be mom and pop investors getting sizeable positions in individual shareholdings taken to the woodsheds for -20%, -30% and more, but that's somehow supposed to be fine since they're investing through professionals..

Anyway, I hope your internet sorts itself out, I don't watch ES but I do enjoy, and try to learn from your updates.

Cheers

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DionysusToast View Post
Yes - you getting the same issues by any chance?

If no - how much to come and trader from your house????

I've no issues with True now. It was out for 12 hours, earlier this month.

Trading at my house. For you - free

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I've no issues with True now. It was out for 12 hours, earlier this month.

Trading at my house. For you - free

I'd pay if Pete trades from my house

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

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I'd pay if Pete trades from my house

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

That's home advantage!...

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23rd Feb

Still out of action here.... my ISP support promised a definite fix by 5pm today. The connection then dropped at 5:03, 5:12, 5:50, 5:54, 6:10, 6:20 - so still not able to trade.



We still haven't been able to pull cleanly away from the top of this range. We are also experiencing narrower, lower volume days. Which is a good way to tell that everyone is waiting to see what everyone is going to do.



From a weekly profile perspective, we can see that most of the trading has been above 1929, which is good.



But from the daily profiles, it doesn't look so good, specifically how we had a narrow range yesterday and yesterdays value area low has held overnight. For more upside, we need to get above the value area high and hold it or I think people are going to see more upside to the downside.

So - bearish bellow 1936, looking for a sign sellers want to come in. Not too bothered about the long side till we get above yesterdays high. If we go back to yesterdays range, it looks like it'll be choppy - so be careful in that area.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1908.25 ->1943.75
Value - 1927.50 -> 1940.50
S1 - 1880.75 R1 - 1937.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1908.25 / 1932-> 1943.75
Value 1937 >-> 1941
Globex 1924.50 -> 1936.25

Today only - 1936.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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24th February



From a longer term perspective it appears the 1929 area is still unresolved. So on that basis, we'd still expect more chop.

We'll leave the weekly profile today as it doesn't tell us much.



The split profile is revealing. We can see that yesterday day session, we tested the Globex high and then dropped - that was a nice run down.

So far, overnight we have held below yesterdays day session value high. So today, I'm starting with a short bias. Looking for either an immediate run down off the open or a run up to a reference point for a short. I think as we move down more people will join giving us a run down to 1800.

Longs have a lot of work to do to move us back up but we have been as low as 1898.50 since we got up to the top of the range, so it's worth having an eye on that area as potential support.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1904.50 ->1943.75
Value - 1920.00-> 1940.50
S1 - 1880.75 R1 - 1937.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1915.25 > 1937.25 / 1938
Value 1916.50 - > 1925.50
Globex 1904.50 -> 1920.25

Today only - 1898.50

Today only - 1936.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75
23 Hours Ago 04:23 PM

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25th February



We got a nice run down yesterday but still couldn't hold it, so we are back up to the top and the area of indecision. We did get decent volume on the way back up and we need to see if buyers follow through again today. I can't go into today with any bias though.



We can see the range within the range here. It's hard to trust any move in my opinion. If we could go through the range high, come back and test it and find support, it would be an interesting long.



Yesterday highlights what a schizophrenic market it is right now. As it is, I think the game is just play the volatility and not married to a bias on either side. We settled on Wednesday at around 36 and yesterday - after all that movement, settled just 6 points lower.

Any move to the highs of the week I'll be wary of but otherwise, I'll try to follow the volume and be wary that we don't seem to have much overall direction and that could cause a reversal pretty much anywhere.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1886.75 ->1943.75
Value - 1914.75 -> 1940
S1 - 1880.75 R1 - 1937.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1886.75 -> 1931.25
Value 1987.75 - > 1914.75
Globex 1920.25 -> 1938.50

Settlement - 1930.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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Yesterday highlights what a schizophrenic market it is right now. As it is, I think the game is just play the volatility and not married to a bias on either side. We settled on Wednesday at around 36 and yesterday - after all that movement, settled just 6 points lower.

It is schizophrenic but to me it looks like it's just doing what Oil does these days - just my 2 cents.

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It is schizophrenic but to me it looks like it's just doing what Oil does these days - just my 2 cents.

Thanks for the heads up!

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29th Feb



Early this week, I'm looking for signs of us falling back into the range or the top of the range holding with the prospect of a run up to 2100.

I'm looking for a hold anywhere from here down to 1929 with a view to buyers jumping on when they see that hold. If not, then my presumption will be a trip back to 1800 and more time in the white box.



1935 is worth watching, that's the top of that large distribution of trading from last week, so that's a line in the sand before 1929.



There's not that much above us. It's worth being wary of a move back up to Fridays low or VAL. If that holds, it'll bring in sellers and that might be enough to push us back into the range.

So the plan is
- wait to see if the downside holds for a push up through last weeks high & beyond
- if not & we move below 1929, bias short looking for a run to 1800

Weekly Numbers
Range 1886.75 ->1968.75
Value - 1905.75 -> 1942.25
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1941.75 -> 1961 / 1968.75
Value 1947 - > 1956.50
Globex 1936.50 -> 1946

Settlement - 1942.75
Today only - 1935

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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1st March



Yesterday we had "I'm looking for a hold anywhere from here down to 1929 with a view to buyers jumping on when they see that hold. If not, then my presumption will be a trip back to 1800 and more time in the white box."

We poked down to 1927.75 yesterday in the overnight session and did see a move up to 56.25 but we couldn't hold it. So now we are back into the top of the range. So once again, I'm looking to see if we can hold for a proper run upside or if we fall back into the range.

I couldn't tell you which and there is an argument for us being in an upwards channel now but I still have us as "undecided". Now we could put some of yesterdays action down to end of month and there was a massive offer yesterday of over 5000 contracts that got completely taken out and pretty much ignored thereafter. So fingers crossed, that we may be a little more free to make a proper move today.



Today - I'll be watching how we do on any move up to yesterdays value low or daily low. If they get rejected then it's a downside bias. For upside, well in theory anything above 1929 is bullish but we are in an indecisive area, so I wont try to gain too much meaning from the bigger picture today and it'll be a case of joining in on the side of volume.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1886.75 ->1968.75
Value - 1905.75 -> 1942.25
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1926.50 -> 1956.25
Value 1939.25 - > 1956.25
Globex 1920.75 -> 1933.59

Settlement - 1929.50

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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3rd March



We've left the chop zone, so into today with a long bias until I see evidence to the contrary. Volume is decent in this move up but not great.

To the upside we do have a level at 2006 but if you look at the spikes down the last time that area was of interest, we did spike way through it so anywhere from 83-2006 is in a pivot zone (an area we've held from both sides).



We are building an upper distribution, with not much trading below 1971.25 all the way down to 1945 area. So if we do move down, I'll be watching the 1971 area.



We've made a small move up overnight but not much. If we stay in this area into the open, I'll be looking to play off yesterdays value area first of all. The value high has held so far, so we may have tested it already and be on our way up. Into the open, I'll be looking to jump on any move up but take a wait & see with any move down to see if we test one of those nearby levels.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.74 ->1987.75
Value - 1921.50 -> 1973.50
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1966.525 -> 1984.75
Value 1970.50- > 1978.50
Globex 1978.50 -> 1987.75

Settlement - 1983.50
Today only - 1971.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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4th March




Bias is long today, looking for more progression to 2000-2006. There's a lot of news at 8:30am, so in absence of that, path of least resistance would be up. So eyes on the numbers and see which way the wind blows after that.

We did get price progression upwards yesterday but only 7 points and volume was down to 1.5m. So I'm still biased long but a bit wary of the reducing volume.



Just like yesterday, the prior days value high has held overnight. Which is good for the upside. We don't have many reference points around other than above us.

So into today - long bias, looking out for any up move off the open and if not, expecting a hold if we move down. Of course, the 8:30am news could pull us out of this out move. Expecting average volume and will be very wary of any move down with high volume.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.75 ->1993
Value - 1941.75 -> 1992.75
S1 - 1896.75 R1 - 1978.75

Daily Numbers
Range 1974.75 -> 1991.75
Value 1975.75- > 1985.75
Globex 1987 -> 1993

Settlement - 1983.50
Today only - 1971.25

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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7th March



We managed to get to our 2006 level - just through it to 2007.50 and then we fell back to 1990. So today looking to see if we are headed back to the old range or if we get through 2006 again, hold it and start heading to 2100. I have no bias either way going into today.



Last weeks profile has an upper distribution which has a low of 1971. So an eye on that as we move down, 1985 is also of interest from the profile.



To the downside we also have Thursdays low at 1974.75. Below those levels , it appears we can get to 1945 fairly quickly.

So into today - looking for support to the downside somewhere from 71-74. If we pop up, wary at 2006. If we do move down, volume will be key in telling us whether lots of speculators are making bets to the downside, considering the up move done.

If we see average volume today - then I'll consider the direction unresolved and upside still on the table even if we do move to the downside. It was a big move up and a long time coming. So a bit of profit taking is expected.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.75 ->2007.50
Value - 1943.75 -> 2007.25
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1984 -> 2007.50
Value 1992 -> 2003.50
Globex 1985.25 -> 1996.25

Settlement - 1995
Today only - 1974.75, 1971, 1985

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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8th March



Following on from yesterdays prep - I still think the 2006 level need to be resolved and looking at the overnight action, it does look a little more bearish. Saying that, it's just the overnight session that pushed down. We did move up yesterday and failed to reach 2006 and speculators will likely look at any more move down into the day session today as a sign we can't hold these prices and that the path of least resistance is to the downside.



I'm still looking at 1974.25-1971 as the area we need to stay above for a chance of continuation up. Below 71, I can see us getting to 45 without too much trouble.



We did end yesterday fairly neutral and it's just in the overnight session that we've made what looks like a decisive rejection of that 2006 area. Still, I'd like to see what the US traders think of it, so I'm not ready to call this the end of the move up until the US session opens.

Looking at this, it does look like we could be developing a small range, so that's one to keep in mind of we do move back up on lowish volume.

Into the open.
1 - Looking for a snap back up, rejection of this overnight push down
2 - Looking for volume if we do move down more. If we get towards, 1971-1974 on low volume, I'll be looking for rejection back up
3 - If we move down to 1971-1974 on higher vol, I'll be looking for a break and a move to 45.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1920.75 ->2007.50
Value - 1943.75 -> 2007.25
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1984.50 / 1986 -> 2004.50
Value 1991.50 -> 2001.50
Globex 1980.75 -> 2000.50

Settlement - 1999

Today only - 1971->1974.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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9th March



We are still moving down but I still don't feel like we've had a decisive move down yet, so I'm still looking for volume to jump in and tell is if we are headed to 2100 or back to 1926.



I still have an eye on the 1971-1974 area for a hold and if broken, looking for a fairly swift drop to 45.



We seem to be in "pop and drop" mode, not that this means we'll do the same again today but if we do move up and roll over, I'd be wary if I was in a late long.

It's still early but so far we haven't had a push down overnight. There's not much news today, so unless we break 71. I'd expect any move to be a bit lazy. Obviously volume can come in at any time but on balance, it's hard to see a large volume of speculators jumping on an up move until we get through 2006 or yesterdays high.

So looking for acceleration below 71, looking for upside moves to be somewhat lazy as I can't see what would entice speculators into the market until we break an upside level.

Note too that the VIX is down at 17.35, so expected volatility is dropping.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1976 ->2004.50
Value - 1982.50 -> 1994
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1976 -> 1993 / 2000.50
Value 1979.50 -> 1988.50
Globex 1978.75 -> 1989.25

Settlement - 1981

Today only - 1971->1974.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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10th March



At risk of repeating myself - I'm not bearish till we get below the 71-74. So once again, anywhere below 74 I'm looking for 1945 fairly quickly and I think we'll see more buyers come in if we pop through 2006. Between that I think it's less decisive.



The volume profile for this week looks very typical of a range week, so look out for rotation up and a potential failure as we get to 1995.



Again, this is very rangebound action. My presumption is that 71-74 is the breakdown point and that this should be the range low. I am flexible on that but I'm definitely looking to get on a move up today with a first target of 95 (weekly value high). If we move below 71, then I'm expecting acceleration to the downside. I don't see much prospect for a rapid move up from here but we do have the unemployment numbers out today and any big surprise there could change people's perspectives but right now it's hard to see what'll bring buyers in quantity until we pop 2006.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1976 ->2004.50
Value - 1982 -> 1993
S1 - 1945 R1 - 2026

Daily Numbers
Range 1978 -> 1991.75 / 1994
Value 1983.25 -> 1989.25
Globex 1977.25 -> 1990.50

Settlement - 1989

Today only - 1971->1974.75

Long Term 2109.25, 2006, 1929.25, 1843, 1814, 1773.75

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14th March

That was quite an unusual rollover - anyway we are about done rolling, so now to trading June contract.

Our levels have moved down 9.25 points - so take note below.



We are above our 1996.75 level, so looking for signs we can hold that, preferably on a pullback and then start our way up to 2100. So long biased above 96.75.



To the downside we have 2002.50 and 1994.75 as potential support as well as the 1985 level. Below that and I'm looking for signs of seller strength.



Fridays Value low was 2003 and the day session traded very much like a roll day. As we go into today, I'm watching for heavy selling right from the outset for a large down day. If we move down on moderate volume, I'm looking for the market to find support for the long. I will not participate in any average volume move down.

In terms of upside potential, it's pretty much open.


Weekly Numbers
Range 1958 ->2012.75
Value - 1971.50 -> 1989
S1 - 1974.75 R1 - 2029.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1978 / 1995.75 -> 2012.75
Value 2003 -> 2011.50
Globex 2006 -> 2011.50

Settlement - 2010.50

Today only - 2002.50, 1994.75, 1985

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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15th March



As we didn't do much of anything yesterday, I'm still looking for the same thing - whether we can hold above this 96.75 level and get speculators to take us up to 2100.

Yesterday we were looking for 2002.50 to hold. It turned out 2002 was the low yesterday but that's now broken overnight and we've moved down to 97.50 and it would be a beautiful thing if that held as it's nice and obvious and gives us the best chance of people joining into the upside. I'm watching 94.75 and 85 below as points we could hold too.



The 85 is the top of that major distribution from last week. and the 94.75 is where the red line is.



We can see yesterday was a really tight range - after the first hour we'd just moved a little over 6 points. So of course, we have to be aware that we may be setting up for a range week. So eyes on the volume into the open.

So biased towards for a hold for more upside and that will be negated if we see sellers come in with volume. I don't particularly expect high volume to the upside at least till we clear yesterdays high.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1958 ->2012.75
Value - 1971.50 -> 1989
S1 - 1974.75 R1 - 2029.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2002 -> 2015
Value 2005 -> 2011.50
Globex 1997.50 -> 2010

Settlement - 2009.25

Today only - 1994.75, 1985

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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16th March



Still waiting for a decision on this 96.75 level - can we hold and move to 2100 or are we going back to 1920. Just waiting for something to happen that tells us speculators are taking it one way or the other.



We held the 1994.75 level yesterday, putting in a low of 1995. There wasn't a great deal of follow through but we aren't expecting a race to the upside, at least not until we break 2015. I still have 1985 as a level but really - we should be testing the upside now, not the downside.



Overnight we've moved up and held yesterdays value low. So that could be our test for the day.

So into the open - still bear in mind that this lookas like a low volume range week. So my scenarios today are:
- buying off the open but be cautious around this weeks value high
- if we see mild selling off the open - look for a downside test to hold
- expect decent participation only if we break the range - otherwise fade the range

Weekly Numbers
Range 1995 ->2015
Value - 2003.50 -> 2011.50
S1 - 1974.75 R1 - 2029.50

Daily Numbers
Range 1995 -> 2007 / 2010
Value 1998 -> 2004
Globex 2004.75 -> 2011.75

Settlement - 2015.75

Today only - 1994.75, 1985

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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21st March



Presumption going into this week is that we are headed up to 2100. Not necessarily in a straight line though...



Looking at the weekly profile, we can see an upper distribution has a low of 28.75. The major distribution below has a high of 2011. So I have an eye on both levels as places a pullback could hold. If we do get below 28.75, we have to be on the lookout for a swift move to 2011 as not much traded between the two prices last week.



We didn't make much headway on Friday and it may well be time for a pullback going into today. So I'm expecting 2100 overall and looking for pullbacks to 27-28.75 (27 is Thursday low) and if not, 2011.

Weekly Numbers
Range 1995 -> 2042.75
Value - 1997.50 -> 2023.50
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2027 / 2033 -> 2042.75
Value 2036 -> 2040.50
Globex 2031 -> 2044.25

Settlement - 2037.50

Today only - 2027-2028.75, 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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22nd March



Very poor volume yesterday at 1.2 million. And we didn't stray far from Fridays range , we also stayed within the overnight range in the day session. As usual, when we get a week starting like this, first scenario on our mind has to be a low volume range week - or at least a few days.



I'm still watching 2028.75. We came close yesterday but moved up and it's the low overnight so far. I also have an eye on 2011 as potential support.



Not much to be gained from this other than the low range.

Scenarios
- range week - look to fade the extremes or breaks of the extreme. At some point volume will build and cause a breakout
- move up to 2100 - moves off support at 28.75 or 11 to bring in additional buyers
- No short bias until 2011 is broken to the downside

Weekly Numbers
Range 1995 -> 2042.75
Value - 1997.50 -> 2023.50
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2031 /2032.75 -> 2044.25 / 2044.50
Value 2036.75 -> 2042.75
Globex 2028.75 -> 2044.75

Settlement - 2042.75

Today only - 2028.75, 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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23rd March



OK - so same thing as previous days this week, still biased towards us being on the way to 2100. Volume was a little higher yesterday but way below what we've been seeing over the past months. Still have an eye on 2028.75 and 2011 for support.



And obviously - stuck in a range. With holidays on Friday and no news today, we are relying almost entirely on the build up of positions in this range causing a move. We do have unemployment claims on Thursday but for now, we need to presume rangebound behavior for the rest of the week.



Best opportunity in these markets is usually the opening swings. So looking for an early trade today, just jumping on whichever direction we see momentum.

Once that's over with, I'll be looking to fade the yesterdays value/range and then the weekly range.

Within that area (if we don't get to the extremes), trying to scalp off developing shorter term high volume nodes is a possibility but it wasn't working that well yesterday AM as the market was so weak. There was no follow through. So if I get a couple of failed scalps because of poor follow through, I'll call it a day.

Of course, we could break out today - but I'm looking for really strong volume to join a break, otherwise I'll presume a headfake.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2028.75-> 2047.50
Value - 2034.75 -> 2043.25
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2028.75 / 2030.50 -> 2047.50
Value 2038 -> 2046
Globex 2037.75 -> 2045.25

Settlement - 2042.50

Today only - 2028.75, 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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24th March



We broke the range and have put in a decent run down overnight. I'm still watching 2011 as a line in the sand for upside bias. If we can hold that, I think we have a good chance of hitting 2100 next time up.



We can see the 2011 level from last week - the top of the major distribution.



Yesterday we just popped down through the bottom of the range. It's Thursday before a holiday. Volume is low, and so we might take back the losses at the US open. So watch for that. If the US markets accept these lows, then I'm looking for 2011 to decide on bias.

Scenarios
- bounce back to range off the open
- continuation down to test 2011, potentially looking at more participation the lower we go
- very good chance of a low volume, low range day though with the Easter holidays coming up

Weekly Numbers
Range 2016.75-> 2047.50
Value - 2033.25 -> 2043.50
S1 - 2007.25 R1 - 2055

Daily Numbers
Range 2025.25 -> 2038.50 / 2045.25
Value 2030.50 -> 2036
Globex 2016.75 -> 2029.25

Settlement - 2028.75

Today only - 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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@DionysusToast, you've hit the old known fiorum missing image bug, need to edit and re-attach.

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29th March



Always a tricky start after a holiday. I didn't trade yesterday but the markets were open - but it was still a holiday in many places. Volume was low.

So this is the start of the week as far as I am concerned and also - I don't really have a "yesterday" to play off. So today, I'm just going to sit on the sidelines at the start to see what develops.

Overall I'm still bullish above 2011 with a view to moving to 2100



Looking above, we can see a large distribution from 2032 -> 2043.50. I'm interested to see if we can get back into this area. If not and we fail a test there, I could see speculators coming in to play it short. I don't really have any other scenarios than that to play going in.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2013.25-> 2047.50
Value - 2032.50 -> 2043.50


Daily Numbers
Range N/A
Value N/A
Globex 2022 -> 2033.50

Settlement - N/A

Today only - 2011

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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30th March



The market seems to have taken Yellens comments positively. So into today, looking to see if we can continue this up move and make it to 2100.



The value high from last week is 43.50, so if we do come down, I'll be looking to see if that holds. We've had a move up and now we could do with building a base to move up again. A move back down to 2043.50 could happen very quickly at this point as there's no real volume traded between where we are now and there.



I wouldn't pay too much attention to the value area from yesterday as the day is so elongated. I would watch out for the single print at 2040 as we did consolidate just below that yesterday.

So into today - looking for continuation up but very wary of the possibility of a drop to 40-43.50.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2019.25-> 2058.25
Value - 2022.25 -> 2036.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2019.25 -> 2047.50
Value 2023 -> 2041.50
Globex 2046.75 -> 2058.25

Settlement - 2047.50

Today only - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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31st March



A sluggish day yesterday but I'm still biased upside, looking for 2100 and ideally looking for people to come in on a test to the downside.



We have started to build an upper distribution above last weeks value high of 43.50, so I'm watching that on any downside move.



And also looking at yesterdays low at 46.75 to hold.

We really need to try to hold onto these gains, if we can, I think people will have more confidence to trade to the upside. If we slip below 43, then I think we could be looking at a test of Tuesdays low at 19.25.

If we discount Tuesday afternoon and the reaction from Yellen's statement, it's been a lackluster week. The upside of breaking yesterdays low is we should see a bit of volatility. So fingers crossed that the employment numbers help us out.

Be aware that it is the last day of the month, so we could get a push up from that today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2019.25-> 2064.50
Value - 2020.75 -> 2051.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2046.75 / 2051.50 -> 2064.50
Value 2054.75 -> 2060.75
Globex 2047.25 -> 2056.25

Settlement - 2055.25

Today only - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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1st April



Still a choppy market but I'm still biased to the upside and looking at 19.75 as a line in the sand for a long trade. Still biased upside towards 2100



We have a distribution of trading above last weeks value high, so also looking around the 43.50 area as support and looking to see if we get downside participation below it.



Yesterday we were within range but have popped below overnight. So first order of the day is whether we pop back into the range we have marked since the pop up on Tuesday. If we do get participation to the downside, I'd expect us to get to 2032 fairly quickly.

Thing is - there hasn't been much participation at all this week with the exception of the push up on Tuesday on the back of Yellens statement. This being Friday, I don't expect too much. Saying that - we have built a range in the past few days and any break out could see us hitting stops and help us make a tradable move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2019.25-> 2064.50
Value - 2032.50 -> 2064.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2047.25 / 2048.75 -> 2059.75
Value 2053-> 2059.50
Globex 2042.25 -> 2056

Settlement - 2051.50

Today only - 2019.75, 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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No prep this week - the kids are on holiday from school and I've been persuaded to take them to the beach.

Have a good week.

Cheers

Pete

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DionysusToast View Post
No prep this week - the kids are on holiday from school and I've been persuaded to take them to the beach.



Have a good week.



Cheers



Pete



Have fun!

My kids were off last week and are headed back this morning....

Ron

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Have fun!

My kids were off last week and are headed back this morning....

Ron

Lucky you!

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12th April

Back from the beach and looks like the market didn't do much while I was gone.



I'm still looking for a test of 2100. Right now it's indecisive, I'm still bullish as long as we can stay above the 2020 level.



The weekly profiles overlap and aren't really adding much to the picture other than confirming a general lack of direction.



Same on the daily profiles.

So the plan
- look for support anywhere between 2020-2025 with a view to rolling back up to 2060-2065 and then possible rolling back down to continue the range.
- if 2020 breaks - watch the volume. If we can trigger stops below, we could get back to 1996.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2026-> 2071.50
Value - 2034.25 -> 2056.75
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063


Daily Numbers
Range 2032.50 / 2034.50 -> 2056.50
Value 2043.50 -> 2051.50
Globex 2029.25 -> 2043

Settlement - 2034.50

Today only - 2020

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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13th April



Up to the top of the range and it does look like it's going to break. Then again, I always think that at the top of every range. So today, the job is to watch what happens up here and then join the break or the reversal. My preference is to let the area resolve one way or the other before jumping on the resulting move.



Not much to show on the profiles yet, other than we are close to last weeks high.



This has been an elongated move up - we didn't make it all the way to the bottom of the range yesterday on the push down which is positive but there's no real pullpack/support area on the way. We didn't build positions/volume anywhere, so it's going to be fairly easy for it to go back down too. I'm watching yesterdays value area as well as the late pullback to 2052.

The plan today.
- watch for a fast move off the open and join it
- any move down may be short lived and just a shake out of overnight longs. So ready to cut shorts on sign of a failure.
- after the opening swing, I'm not too interested in engaging between 2065 and 2075. That's where I see the highest likelihood of short term manipulation. I'd rather let it play out first.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2069.25
Value - 2032.50 -> 2049.50
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063


Daily Numbers
Range 2029.25 / 2032.50 -> 2058.50
Value 2041-> 2057.50
Globex 2054 -> 2069.25

Settlement - 2055.75

Today only - 2020

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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April 14th



We managed to make a little progression upside but it's not a clear break yet, so whilst overall bias is still to a test of 2100, I am still wary of this being a headfake.



The weekly profile has a single print at 2063, so if we do move down, I'll be watching for a hold there.



Days are still pretty tight and as such, I'm looking to get in on one of the initial swings off the open. Yesterdays open didn't give us much in that respect but I'll still try today again.

Scenarios
- Off the open (or even before the open), I'd like to see a test of the value area or yesterdays day session low. So if we open above yesterdays high, I'll look for a test of VAH. If we open in value, I'll look for a test of VAL. If we can then move up, I think we could then gather the participation necessary for a break upside.
- If we grind up and don't test downside, I expect it to be less clear and take a little longer for people to jump on and more likely to chop until we can really get some distance past yesterdays high
- Same for downside, if we initiate down off a test of overnight high/yesterdays high, I expect it to be clearer, if not - I think it will be choppy.

So really today, I'm trying to figure out what could cause people to jump on a move and if I don't see that I'm expecting chop and will let the range form before trying anything.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2077
Value - 2032.50 -> 2061
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063


Daily Numbers
Range 2054 / 2063.75 -> 2077
Value 2067.25 -> 2073.25
Globex 2068.50 -> 2076.50

Settlement - 2076

Today only - 2020, 2063

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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18th April



A gap down day. Now I'm not really a big fan of trading gaps as I don't consider a "settlment to open" difference a significant occurrence. These gaps where we gap below the prior days range and stay out of it, I consider a bit more relevant and will be looking at Fridays low as a significant level. Of course, this could fill in from now to the open.

Looking left, from here down to 2020 is an area we have chopped around in. With that in mind, the best probability of clean trade is to the upside.



From a volume profile perspective, we can see that we ate in the middle of last weeks range and so there's not much to get excited about in this area.



Looking left we have Tuesdays day session low at 2054 and I'm keeping an eye on that if we move down. That acted as support after the pop up.

The plan.
- we are in the middle of the range from the past few weeks, so expectations are low. That means looking to join the first swing or two with the expectation that volatility will dry up mid-morning.
- Look for a hold at Fridays Low (2054) or Tuesdays low (2069.50) as occurrences that could bring in some speculators and give us a run
- As usual, look for areas of high volume from overnight to play off.

Other than that - not expecting too much but would like nothing more than to be pleasantly surprised.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2081.75
Value - 2044.50-> 2081
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2069.50 -> 2077 / 2080
Value 2072 -> 2075.50
Globex 2058.50 -> 2068

Settlement - 2075

Today only - 2020, 2054, 2069.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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19th April



We are almost at the 2100 level. Scenarios from here on are a roll over and back to 2000 or we push up and move on to new highs. We could spin around here for a few days whilst the market decides what to do and we have to avoid getting caught up in any manipulation up here as reversal/breakout traders get nudged out of position.

My philosophy is to let everyone else do the the heavy lifting and then get on board once the market has sorted itself out. The first thing to look for is volume coming in after a touch or push through 2100.



Below us we can see that the upper distribution from last week tops out about 2078.25. So if we move down, I'll be looking there for a hold and again, looking for volume to increase after the hold.



Similarly, 2081.75 is the break-out point/last weeks high, so again it's an area worth watching if we move down.

So the plan today
- be wary around 2100 as there's a chance of reversal/breakout traders getting nudged out of position
- look for volume to come in off a test - 2100 for a short, 78.25-81.75 for a long (plus yesterdays high/low/value area)
- Jump on any 'runaway' move that develops

If we do get through 2100, it's going to be very telling how many buyers there are up there.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2081.75
Value - 2044.50-> 2081
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2058.50/2065.25 -> 2088.75
Value 2079.25 -> 2088.75
Globex 2084.74 -> 2096.50

Settlement - 2086.75

Today only - 2078.75, 2081.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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20th April



I'll cut & paste from yesterdays prep to save typing:


Quoting 
We are almost at the 2100 level. Scenarios from here on are a roll over and back to 2000 or we push up and move on to new highs. We could spin around here for a few days whilst the market decides what to do and we have to avoid getting caught up in any manipulation up here as reversal/breakout traders get nudged out of position.

My philosophy is to let everyone else do the the heavy lifting and then get on board once the market has sorted itself out. The first thing to look for is volume coming in after a touch or push through 2100.



We can see an upper distribution building on this weeks developing profile.



And we can see we had good volatility on the push up on Monday but couldn't follow through on Tuesday and so I'm initially watching to see if Tuesdays range holds.

Plan
- Overal waiting for the market to resolve this 2100 level one way or the other
- Look to fade Tuesdays range but with confirmation as it's going to be an area prone for manipulation
- Let the market break and pull back and test before going with any break, again because of chances of manipulation
- On a push down watch for support at 2078.75 & 2081.75

Not much of a plan really! Just trying to avoid getting caught up in the excitement of a fake move, especially to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2098.50
Value - 2071.50 -> 2098.50
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2084.75 -> 2098.50
Value 2089.50 -> 2096
Globex 2085.75 -> 2094.50

Settlement - 2093.75

Today only - 2078.75, 2081.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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21 April



To avoid repetition...


Quoting 
We are almost at the 2100 level. Scenarios from here on are a roll over and back to 2000 or we push up and move on to new highs. We could spin around here for a few days whilst the market decides what to do and we have to avoid getting caught up in any manipulation up here as reversal/breakout traders get nudged out of position.

My philosophy is to let everyone else do the the heavy lifting and then get on board once the market has sorted itself out. The first thing to look for is volume coming in after a touch or push through 2100.

We have been above 2100 but had no real push up, so I consider it still unresolved.



We can see the upper distribution was widened 2085.50 -> 2103.50, so I'm looking to see if we rotate around that. So watching those extremes into the open.



We had a late pullback yesterday down to 95.75, which is just above the value area. So scenarios are:
1 - bounce off 95.75/VAL for a push up through the highs
2 - lazy roll over to range around 2085.50 -> 2103.50

Obviously employment numbers could throw the plans out the window.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2105.25
Value - 2085.50 -> 2103.50
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2085.75 / 2089.50 -> 2105.25
Value 2095.50 -> 2104.50
Globex 2094.75 -> 2104

Settlement - 2098

Today only - 2078.75, 2081.75, 2095.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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@DionysusToast

Hi Pete, apologies if you have mentioned this already, but what NinjaTrader tool do you use to draw these volume profile/market profile charts?

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@DionysusToast

Hi Pete, apologies if you have mentioned this already, but what NinjaTrader tool do you use to draw these volume profile/market profile charts?

think it is fin-alg.com

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think it is fin-alg.com

Thanks for that. It is indeed. Great package - never once failed.

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22nd April



We have come off the highs, I'm not convinced this means we have rejected them yet as this could be just a shake out. I have an eye on the 4th April high at 2071.50



We can see the upper distribution this week has widened. As we are at the bottom of it right now, there's decent probability we'll move up and rotate back to the top. The market thins out this week below 78, so there's a chance of a pop down below there.



Plan in my head for today
- Be wary of a pop down if 78 breaks
- look for 78 or 71.50 as potential support
- if we move up off the open, watch yesterdays low/value area for resistance, if so - join participation downside if it holds.
- if we move straight up off the open, look for overnight volume to lean on and be wary of yesterdays key levels

Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2105.25
Value - 2082.75 -> 2100.25
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2082.25 / 2089.50 -> 2104
Value 2087.50 -> 2097.50
Globex 2077.75 -> 2089

Settlement - 2082.75

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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My sons Birthday celebrations today, so no prep.

I'll save you some cake though.

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DionysusToast View Post
My sons Birthday celebrations today, so no prep.



I'll save you some cake though.



Congrats....

Chocolate? Whipped cream or buttercream frosting?

Ron

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Congrats....

Chocolate? Whipped cream or buttercream frosting?

Ron

Strawberries & cream cake....

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26th April



We've come off the 2100 area but no clear rejection or sell off yet. Volume is decent but steady- around 1.7M per day. The upper white line at 71.50 appears to be where we found support, so an eye on that if we get back there.

I'm neutral looking at this - as mentioned last week, it's an all time high and so an area where we could expect some 'to and fro' and so I'm not ready to call continuation or reversal at this point.



The weekly profile isn't helping other than if we start eating into the value area - above 81.50, then it's likely we'll see the top of it - 99.50.



Looking back, we can see that the long breakout session was breaking the 72.50 level, so an eye on that if we get back there.

The plan.
- Still cautious because it's an area prone to manipulation
- if we stay above 81.50 into the open and don't start moving down, look for longs with a target just under 99.50
- look at 71.50-72.50 as a line in the sand area - could be support and should be stops below if it breaks.
- As we are above yesterdays range - watch for yesterdays high/value high for support


Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2105.25
Value - 2081.50 -> 2099.50
S1 - 2065.75 R1 - 2105.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2071 -> 2082.25/ 2091.50
Value 2074 -> 2079.50
Globex 2081.50 -> 2091.25

Settlement - 2083.25

Today only - 2071.50, 2072.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Strawberries & cream cake....



Cool love strawberries!!!!!!!!!!

Ron

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27th April

FOMC Day. Yesterday was pretty lame at the end, so expectation today is a slow start then fireworks at FOMC time.



So again, looking for this 2100 area to be resolved. Looking for a pop up or a break down through 71.50. It's really about what happens when the post-FOMC move is over & whether we get a new direction. It could whip around and settle back into the range.



This weeks profile is pinocchio-esque. This is just indicative in trading around a small range which is no shock considering the usual wait for FOMC.



The Globex session is within yesterdays range. So....

Plan
- for the morning - look to play off yesterdays range/value range
- look for an early trade
- hands off if it then dies out
- then wait for the announcement and see if we get some direction when it settles down

Weekly Numbers
Range 2072 -> 2091.50
Value - 2080.75-> 2088.75
S1 - 2065.75 R1 - 2105.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2079.50 -> 2091.25
Value 2081.25 -> 2086.25
Globex 2080.75-> 2088.25

Settlement - 2088.50

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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@DionysusToast

Hi Pete - I posted a question that I'm sure you can help with here. Thanks in advance.

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28th April



The FOMC failed to pop us through the highs, which means that's one less catalyst for an up move. It's becoming more likely that we'll just roll over back to 2000 but I'm still waiting for clear momentum either way before changing long term bias.

Some bad news from Japan sent the markets down overnight and we are hovering around the 71.50 level. Eyes on that and eyes on how the US markets react to that news (or shrug it off) into the open.



A profile that's very typical of rangebound behavior, so there's a decent probability of continuing to ping-pong between the extremes.



The daily profiles are more telling. We can see that although we've had a decent move down overnight, as yet we've done nothing more than probe down to the bottom of the range.

Plan for today
- look for the US open to shrug off the overnight bearishness with a move back up
- look for any upside move to fail between the value high (87 and 95)
- any up move off the open could just be initial balancing off the overnight shorts, so be wary of a reversal down early on
- 71.50 is a line in the sand, expect more sellers to come in when it breaks (but not to the tick - give some leeway)

Weekly Numbers
Range 2070.25 -> 2094.25
Value - 2077.75-> 2087.75
S1 - 2065.75 R1 - 2105.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2076.25 -> 2094
Value 2080.25 -> 2089.25
Globex 2070.35-> 2094.25

Settlement - 2090.75

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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2nd May



The market has come off with significant volume. So if there's more volume to the downside, I'm now biased towards a move back down to 2000. That's a bias, I'm not married to it.



I'm still watching 2071.50 above and if we can get above that, my bias returns to a move up to 2100.



Last weeks value low is 71.25 which coincides with the level from the longer term chart. So on a move up past 71, I'll be looking for an initial move back to the top of value at 88.



It's a holiday today in most of Europe and some of Asia, hence not much significance can be drawn from the overnight action, nor can we red much into the lack of volume. It's not lack of interest, just lack of traders.

Here's the plan
- on the open - look for a snap back up - possible after a couple of down days
- otherwise look for shorts
- long term bias is to see 2000 again unless we go through 2071.50 in which case, I expect 2088 and then either a roll back to 71.50 or a move to 2100.
- look to play off Fridays range/value range

Weekly Numbers
Range 2045.75 -> 2094.25
Value - 2071.25-> 2088.25
S1 - 2038.50 R1 - 2086.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2045.75 -> 2067 / 2076
Value 2047.50 -> 2057.50
Globex 2055.50 -> 2062.75

Settlement - 2059

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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3rd May



We've had a push back up through the 71.50 area, I mentioned yesterday being bullish above that and bearish below. I'm a little wary of a small range forming here that could hold us for the next few weeks.

We'd had good volume on the push down on Thursday and Friday and yesterday we had a move up with lackluster volume. Of course, yesterday was a holiday in much of the world, so that could just be the holidays.



We are into the main distribution from last week, which means the value trade would be a move to 88 and then to rotate back down to 71.25.



Yesterdays move up may well just be a reaction to the 2 down days so today:
- look for downside momentum and a continuation of the Thursday/Friday moves, especially if we get above average volume
- cautiously bullish above 71.50 with a view to hitting 88 at which case, with average volume, I'd expect a roll back down to 71.50
- Overall, it does appear like the test of the highs has failed and that we are now due to revisit 2000. Support off yesterdays value area/range could bring in buyers and help us push up though.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2045.75 -> 2094.25
Value - 2071.25-> 2088.25
S1 - 2038.50 R1 - 2086.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2055.50 / 2059.50 -> 2077.50
Value 2059.75 -> 2069.75
Globex 2072 -> 2076.25 (early prep though)

Settlement - 2074.25

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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4th May



I'm still sticking with the premise of a move to 2000 but wary of a choppy range 2020-2100 forming.



Last weeks low at 2045.75 is below us, so caution as we approach that. Not necessarily for a reversal but for a little nudging around.



Yesterday was a good example of how you'd need to trade against your overall bias at some points and the general "swingy" nature of the ES. We had a couple of good legs down and then the market moved sideways for the rest of the AM. So one of those days where you had to get in early.

So far, the overnight action has been slow. Going into today

- looking for volume to the downside for a continuation trade but wary as we get to 2045.75
- if we don't get the volume, I'm also wary of us initially getting stuck in yesterdays range (based on overnight action) - in which case it's taking cues of yesterday and intraday levels
- based on where we are now, very interested in trades off yesterdays value area/range
- best case scenario would be an upside move to a reference point and then volume coming in to the downside


Weekly Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2077.50
Value - 2052.50> 2065.50
S1 - 2038.50 R1 - 2086.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2063.25 / 2076.25
Value 2052.25 -> 2059.75
Globex 2051.25 -> 20760.25

Settlement - 2057

Today only - 2045.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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9th May



I'm still biased short but also looking at the white box above as a potential range. We will have people looking at this market channeling down, so if we move up from here that channel breaks. I'm not a channel trader, I'm just looking for areas above that could see people start to jump in on the long side. So right now, I'd be more inclined to take longs if we go above 2060.



To the upside, I'd exercise caution as we move above the top of the main distribution from last week - so around 61.75. Similarly, caution below at the weekly value low.



The reason I'm leaning a bit more towards the potential range is this action from last week. As you can see, it's not looking like a directional market. We had a late pullback on Friday down to 47.75, so that's my first reference point into today as well as the range/value range.

Plan
- stay fairly neutral at the open unless we get a news driven move between now & then
- look for moves to the upside, better if we can test 47.75 or Fridays value.
- wary at 60-61.75
- on downside moves, watch last weeks low/Fridays low/VAL as we could be at the bottom of a medium term range
- more aggressive to the downside if we can crack Fridays low.

I'm going to need to change this prep somehow as I find I'm not capturing the essence of what I do intraday here. Most days give us 2-3 decent sized swings as traders play one side and then take profits and play the other. I'm generally looking to take advantage of these swings in the backdrop of an understanding of what is going on longer term.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2030.50 -> 2077.50
Value - 2039.50> 2060
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2075.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2030.50 /2033.75 -> 2052.75
Value 2035.25 -> 2045.75
Globex 2049 -> 2058

Settlement - 2052.75

Today only - 2047.75, 2060-2061.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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10th May



Yesterday we had:


Quoting 
I'm still biased short but also looking at the white box above as a potential range. We will have people looking at this market channeling down, so if we move up from here that channel breaks. I'm not a channel trader, I'm just looking for areas above that could see people start to jump in on the long side. So right now, I'd be more inclined to take longs if we go above 2060.

Looking at yesterdays and the overnight action, we can see a couple of things. First that we did indeed see buyers coming in when the top of the channel broker. Second that we appear to be confirming the potential range we've had our eye on for a while. I'm still a little cautious around 2071.50 though.



We can see we are above the major distribution from last week, so keep an eye on last weeks value high if we fall back.



Yesterday we did stair step up overnight, so locally the single prints are worth keeping an eye on but I'm mostly looking at the 2064 area from here. Also to the left we can see a number of highs between 2058.75-2060.25, so an eye on that area.

Plan
- look out for an initial reaction down after the move up overnight (day session rejecting the new prices)
- monitor the volume on any move down, look for it to fail unless volume is exceptionally high
- look for support at yesterdays high/value high BUT wary that we may not get that low if the participants are accepting these prices
- if we move straight up off the open and it looks like we are going to trend, scale into a long trade
- be wary if we get towards 2100 as bias is for the range to fail

Weekly Numbers
Range 2030.50 -> 2077.50
Value - 2039.50> 2060
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2075.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048 / 2049 -> 2058.75 / 2059.75
Value 2051 -> 2065.50
Globex 2048 -> 2069.25

Settlement - 2054.25

Today only - 2058.75-2060.25, 2064, 2071.50, 2100

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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11th May



My bias is towards the range holding - so really expecting more upside to get to 2095-2105 and then reverse down to test the low of the range. Obviously if we can't make it to the 2095 upside then we have the prospect of a narrowing range, which isn't ideal trading conditions. Anyway - bias long again today.



Weekly profile isn't helping much. The lower distribution high is at 2060 and there's not that much trade between here and there. We may need to build volume 2070-2077 area before another leg up.



Yesterday we were looking at the potential of a pullback down to 58.75-60.25, we got as low as 61.25. So I'm still watching that area.

Plan
- bias long still
- not much volume to lean on below, so wary of a drop down to 2060 area
- look for volume building above 2070 to break upside to give us some volume to lean on for support
- Go with any break upside but be patient today and not take longs till they are confirmed (because not much below us to lean on).
- take shorts only below 2070

Weekly Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049 -> 2068
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2075.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048 / 2061.25 -> 2079.75
Value 2067.25 -> 2076.25
Globex 2069.50 -> 2078.75

Settlement - 2077.50

Today only - 2060-2060.25, 2070

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12th May



I'm still biased towards hitting the top of the range before rolling over and continuing along the range in the white box.



The weeks profile is filling out and right now we are just above center, so not the best place to be taking trades.



Yesterday the plan was:


Quoting 
- bias long still
- not much volume to lean on below, so wary of a drop down to 2060 area
- look for volume building above 2070 to break upside to give us some volume to lean on for support
- Go with any break upside but be patient today and not take longs till they are confirmed (because not much below us to lean on).
- take shorts only below 2070

We had a few decent swings in the AM and did continue to build volume above 2070 but in the end we broke downside to 2060. We've also filled in the profile, which means we can't really say that a break upside will give us a run.

We've have dipped below the 2060 but I'm still looking at that area as the line in the sand today. Looking for longs above 2060 and chop below it.

Plan:
- look for longs above 2060 but caution again at 2071.50 area
- target yesterdays high on longs
- for downside, shorts off yesterdays high/vah or a break below yesterdays low but expecting chop on any move down below the low

Weekly Numbers
Range 2048 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049.50 -> 2069.50
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2067.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2059.75-> 2078.50 / 2078.75
Value 2065.75 -> 2078.25
Globex 2057.50 -> 2067.75

Settlement - 2058

Today only - 2060, 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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13th May



It does appear that we are now working our way down but I am now neutral biased. It looks like we may suffer a narrowing range.



The profile doesn't have much for us, other than we are back to Mondays lows which does give us a potential long fade trade.



We are basically back to Mondays lows. So this week we've moved up and back down. That's why I don't feel strongly about this push down in the past few days.

It is Friday, so it might be a bit of a lame duck day. Unlike the past 2 days I have no levels that I think will break and give us a decent move. We aren't near the 71.50 and the 60 level broke yesterday,

The plan:
- look for the 'traditional' day trader plays off yesterdays range/value
- look for shorts more aggressively if we break 2048 in the day session (although like yesterday, the overnight low might take some time to get through.
- other than that look for momentum moves
- if DOW/NASDAQ aren't moving together or volume is very low - there's a high chance of getting chopped around...

Weekly Numbers

Range 2046.25 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049.25 -> 2069.50
S1 - 2032, R1 - 2067.75

Daily Numbers
Range 2048.50-> 2069.75 / 2072.75
Value 2053 -> 2065
Globex 2046.25 -> 2060.75

Settlement - 2058.75

Today only - 2048

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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16th May



Looking left, there is a lot of chop. So from a long term perspective, I don't think the long term view helps us today. What we do have to watch over the next few days, is how the action unfolds.

We failed to get to the high, now we are moving towards the low of the range (or presumed low). If we fail to get to 2020 (or below), then we are in a narrowing range. That means the knock-on effect is that we could get some tough action.

So far, the action is fine. Most days we are still managing 20 points or so. For today though, I'm not looking for too much from the longer term picture other that downside moves should have better follow through. Upside I see chop.



So far, we are below the major distribution from last week. So an eye on 2049.25 if we move up.



We have had a good move down over the past few sessions, so a move up from here, doesn't necessarily mean we are done to the downside.

Todays Plan:
- watch 49.25, if it holds we could have a good run down. It has held overnight, so that may actually be played out
- Look for a break of the overnight low to give us a decent downside run but play the upside more cautiously as it may be choppy
- Other than that follow Fridays VAL/VAH/Range and the intraday volume steps

Weekly Numbers
Range 2038.50 -> 2079.75
Value - 2049.25 -> 2067.25
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2038.50-> 2063.50
Value 2047.25 -> 2063.25
Globex 2035 -> 2049.25

Settlement - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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18th May



As we can see, the range is narrowing. As such, my preference today would be to see us break out of this to the downside as I feel that's the best chance of a decent move. We did have a decent run down yesterday. If we move back up, we have more chance of choppy action.



We can see that we are building volume below the main distribution from last week. If we could move up to that 46.25-49.25 area and then start moving down, I think we have a good chance of speculative selling jumping on that move.



The shorter term picture is quite indecisive. We are still having decent range days though. We have to be wary of the area between yesterdays low an the weeks low as that could well hold on a move down.

Todays Plan

- No bias going into today
- Look for continuation short plays if we move up to 46.25-49.25 and then start moving down
- Similarly look for continuation long plays off yesterdays low/this weeks low
- Other than that watch the volume profile/other indices to decide whether or not to jump on any developing moves as we have no bias.
- Be wary of moves upside because of the potential for chop

Weekly Numbers
Range 2035 -> 2069.50
Value - 2037.50 -> 2059
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2036.75-> 2062.75
Value 2044.50 -> 2062.50
Globex 2038.50 -> 2046.75

Settlement - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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19th May



Still quite an indecisive market but still decent ranges. Volume yesterday was over 2 million contracts but we ended up pretty much where we started.



We can see that this weeks lower distribution is continuing to build, with extremes are 36.25 and 46.25, so watching how that builds today.



This is a great picture. We opened at 39.25 and settled at 41.50 but we had a 27 point range. We pushed up, ranged from 44.50 to 52 for a few hours and then we had our moves. The range is not typical of indecisive action but the activity is. There's not so much you can plan other than planning to react.

Plan
- Look for a breakdown of the range to give us a more decisive move if it occurs
- Other than that, follow the volume and play the extremes of intraday volume that develops
- also look to play off the overnight volume area

Weekly Numbers
Range 2030.75 -> 2069.50
Value - 2034.25 -> 2059
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2036.75-> 2062.75
Value 2044.50 -> 2053.75
Globex 2032.75 -> 2044.75

Today only - 36.25, 46.25

Settlement - 2041.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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20th May



Another 2 million contract day where we ended the day session close to where we started. We have tested the bottom of our presumed range and so I am looking for signs that we have decent upside participation today. Of course, we could move down in which case my short term target is 2000.



Above us we have the step in the profile at 2046.25, so that's worth watching after the open.



Yesterday, we had a great run down off the open and then chop. It is Friday today, so it could be that nothing much of interest occurs and we have to wait for next week to see if our presumed range will hold. Still, it's worth considering the prospect of a run close to the open.

Plan
- upside bias, based on our presumed range holding
- look to scale into any fast paced move that develops close to the open
- don't get caught in the chop if the market settles into a range

Weekly Numbers
Range 2022 -> 2069.50
Value - 2033-> 2054
S1 - 2028.25, R1 - 2069.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2021.75 -> 2039.75 / 2044.75
Value 2024.50 -> 2034
Globex 2037.25 -> 2047.50

Today only - 2046.25

Settlement - 2038.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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23rd May



On Friday we had:


Quoting 
Another 2 million contract day where we ended the day session close to where we started. We have tested the bottom of our presumed range and so I am looking for signs that we have decent upside participation today. Of course, we could move down in which case my short term target is 2000.

Yesterday, we had a great run down off the open and then chop. It is Friday today, so it could be that nothing much of interest occurs and we have to wait for next week to see if our presumed range will hold. Still, it's worth considering the prospect of a run close to the open.

Our "presumed range" (white box) still appears to be holding but Friday was a tight day, so we didn't have follow through either way, just a small move up. So I'm still going in biased to the upside overall.



We spent the most time last week between 2041.75 and 2046.25. So looking at both areas as potentials for buyers to step in. Then also looking at the value low but above volume just tapers off, so not interested to much in the value high.



We are starting off the overnight session trading inside Fridays day session. When that occurs, I'm always on the lookout for a range day. Not saying it WILL happen but it often happens and it's enough to have a heads up just in case. So I'll be watching Fridays range and value area with interest.

Plan
- If we are still trading in Fridays range at the open, watch for low volume and a hold at Fridays day session extremes
- Overall a long bias (although expecting swings both ways as is the norm for the ES) with a view to hitting 2100 before rolling back over (the white box).
- expect a hold of a downside test of 41.75 or 46.25 areas to bring in more speculative buyers and give the chance for a run, similarly look for acceleration past Fridays high if we get above average participation
- not seeing any level below that looks like it will give us a run if broken, so play the downside with more caution

Plan
- upside bias, based on our presumed range holding
- look to scale into any fast paced move that develops close to the open
- don't get caught in the chop if the market settles into a range

Weekly Numbers
Range 2022 -> 2069.50
Value - 2034.50 -> 2054
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2037.25 -> 2042.75 / 2055.50
Value 2047.75 -> 2053.25
Globex 2043.50 -> 2056

Today only - 2041.75, 2046.25

Settlement - 2050

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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24th May



Yesterday we had


Quoting 
We are starting off the overnight session trading inside Fridays day session. When that occurs, I'm always on the lookout for a range day. Not saying it WILL happen but it often happens and it's enough to have a heads up just in case. So I'll be watching Fridays range and value area with interest.

So today we watch to see if the range will build or if we'll break out. Obviously, the longer we stay here, the more volume builds & the stronger the break.

There is still a case for us being in a downward channel, so I'm looking for that as an obstacle to my overall long bias.



Not much to say here other than we are still holding above the 2046.25 level, so still keep an eye on that. Saying that, it's around the bottom of the range anyway.



I spoke to a few traders that got chopped around yesterday (yes Daniel ). If volume is really low it can get a bit random. I didn't take a trade yesterday. Low volume, Dow doing one thing, Nasdaq doing another. At least now we have a but more volume built up so the range is better defined, so hopefully it;ll be more interesting. Saying that - it would not be unusual for us to sit here till Thursday.

Plan
- Overall bias is the upside but wary of the appearance of a downward channel
- look for a break off the open, as it any initial volatility may quickly fade
- Fade the range, look for good headfakes - (weak pops out of the range that are followed by absorption) as the best entries
- only take continuations outside the range if we get a high volume break
- Try not to fall asleep (seriously - lack of focus can be a killer on slow days for me)


Weekly Numbers

Range 2022 -> 2069.50
Value - 2034.50 -> 2054
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2043.50 / 2044.25 -> 2052.75 / 2056
Value 2047.75 -> 2051.25
Globex 2041.25 -> 2053

Today only - 2046.25

Settlement - 2045.25

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75
May 20th, 2016 04:13 PM

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25th May



My bias is to the red arrows - completing the range to the upside and then rolling back down. Of course, we could fall short or headfake through, so an eye on the volume and order flow as we get up there.




An eye on 2070 to the downside, if it breaks, there's not much below us till we get to 2055, so a breakdown is something to look out for.



We had a late pullback to 2070 yesterday and again we see not much below it. 2058 is our breakout point.

Plan
- Upside biased
- look out for an initial reaction downside off the open as we have had a big push up overnight
- cautious as we approach 2100 but not interested in shorts up there unless we get a down swing with significant volume
- looking to jump on a break of 2070 to the downside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2041.25 -> 2085.50
Value - 2041.50 -> 2069.50
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2041.25 / 2056 -> 2077.25
Value 2068.25 -> 2076.75
Globex 2073.50 -> 2085.50

Today only - 2070, 2058

Settlement - 2075

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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26th May



A simple day today. Or rather a simple premise. Now we are at the top of the range, we are looking for activity at the top that tells us if we are going to roll over or make new highs. So looking for headfakes above 2100 and for acceleration below yesterdays low.



Not much on this weeks profile other than the lack of volume traded below 2070, so if we get there, we should reach 2058 easily.



We've spend the overnight session within yesterdays range but we spent most of yesterday above 2086. So I'll be watching 2086 too.

Plan
- Holiday tomorrow, overnight volume is low, so not expecting much
- eyes on yesterdays range, looking for sellers to come in at either yesterdays high or a break of 2086 from above
- cautious of any moves up, 2100 will be a busy area, so no trades around there. Longs on a hold of 2086/yesterdays low
- The key today is to try and get positioned long before it breaks yesterdays high.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2041.25 -> 2092.50
Value - 2041.50 -> 2082.50
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2073.50 / 2080.75 -> 2092.50
Value 2086.50 -> 2091
Globex 2082.50 -> 2091

Today only - 2086

Settlement - 2087.25

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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27th March



Same thing today as yesterday


Quoting 
A simple day today. Or rather a simple premise. Now we are at the top of the range, we are looking for activity at the top that tells us if we are going to roll over or make new highs. So looking for headfakes above 2100 and for acceleration below yesterdays low.



Eyes on 82.50 today as we now have a more clearly defined upper distribution. Looking for that to break either side to see some stops trigger.



Same story here - I'll be watching yesterdays low/globex low and for a break of the highs. Volume is pretty low so far over night and not much news this AM.

Plan
- expectations low for today
- look to play the range 82.50-> 92.50. Looking for failures at the top & headfakes
- watching for volume on the break, if so will join a continuation trade
- if we get up to 2100, looking for more significant rejection

Weekly Numbers

Range 2041.25 -> 2092.50
Value - 2050.75 -> 2092.50
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2082.50 / 2084.25 -> 2091.75
Value 2085.50 -> 2089
Globex 2088 -> 2092.50

Settlement - 2089.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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31st May



We've gone through the 2100 level but not quite up to the 2105.25 we reached last time. So once again, simply looking for volume above 05.25 for a long or below 2100 for a short. In effect, waiting for the market to show it's hand.

This is not a great area to trade. There will be lots of opinions on both sides. Once it breaks opinions should become a bit more one-sided and give us a move we can take advantage of.



The top distribution from last week has a high around 92.50, so watching that area for support/line in the sand.



Looking below, we can see the 92.50 level significant as that's where we topped out last week before this push up. Note that as yesterday was a holiday - we'll be using Fridays value area to play off & consider anything since Friday as one large 'overnight' session.

Note also that it's the last day of the month and that could in itself cause a decent push up today that then fades away tomorrow.

Plan
- join any high volume moves above 05.25 (long), below 2100 (short)
- On a move down, be wary as we approach 92.50 and look to buy if buyers jump in off a bounce there

Weekly Numbers
Range 2041.25 -> 2096.75
Value - 2051.75 -> 2096.75
S1 - 2061.50, R1 - 2115.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2088 / 2089.25 -> 2096.75
Value 2091.25-> 2094.74
Globex 2096 -> 2103.75

Settlement - n/a

Today only - 2092.50

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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