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DTs Pre Market Prep
Started:May 28th, 2013 (09:53 AM) by DionysusToast Views / Replies:131,435 / 914
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DTs Pre Market Prep

Old May 26th, 2016, 08:40 AM   #781 (permalink)
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26th May

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A simple day today. Or rather a simple premise. Now we are at the top of the range, we are looking for activity at the top that tells us if we are going to roll over or make new highs. So looking for headfakes above 2100 and for acceleration below yesterdays low.

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Not much on this weeks profile other than the lack of volume traded below 2070, so if we get there, we should reach 2058 easily.

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We've spend the overnight session within yesterdays range but we spent most of yesterday above 2086. So I'll be watching 2086 too.

Plan
- Holiday tomorrow, overnight volume is low, so not expecting much
- eyes on yesterdays range, looking for sellers to come in at either yesterdays high or a break of 2086 from above
- cautious of any moves up, 2100 will be a busy area, so no trades around there. Longs on a hold of 2086/yesterdays low
- The key today is to try and get positioned long before it breaks yesterdays high.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2041.25 -> 2092.50
Value - 2041.50 -> 2082.50
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2073.50 / 2080.75 -> 2092.50
Value 2086.50 -> 2091
Globex 2082.50 -> 2091

Today only - 2086

Settlement - 2087.25

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Old May 27th, 2016, 06:32 AM   #782 (permalink)
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27th March

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Same thing today as yesterday


Quoting 
A simple day today. Or rather a simple premise. Now we are at the top of the range, we are looking for activity at the top that tells us if we are going to roll over or make new highs. So looking for headfakes above 2100 and for acceleration below yesterdays low.

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Eyes on 82.50 today as we now have a more clearly defined upper distribution. Looking for that to break either side to see some stops trigger.

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Same story here - I'll be watching yesterdays low/globex low and for a break of the highs. Volume is pretty low so far over night and not much news this AM.

Plan
- expectations low for today
- look to play the range 82.50-> 92.50. Looking for failures at the top & headfakes
- watching for volume on the break, if so will join a continuation trade
- if we get up to 2100, looking for more significant rejection

Weekly Numbers

Range 2041.25 -> 2092.50
Value - 2050.75 -> 2092.50
S1 - 2025, R1 - 2071.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2082.50 / 2084.25 -> 2091.75
Value 2085.50 -> 2089
Globex 2088 -> 2092.50

Settlement - 2089.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Old May 31st, 2016, 05:59 AM   #783 (permalink)
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31st May

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We've gone through the 2100 level but not quite up to the 2105.25 we reached last time. So once again, simply looking for volume above 05.25 for a long or below 2100 for a short. In effect, waiting for the market to show it's hand.

This is not a great area to trade. There will be lots of opinions on both sides. Once it breaks opinions should become a bit more one-sided and give us a move we can take advantage of.

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The top distribution from last week has a high around 92.50, so watching that area for support/line in the sand.

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Looking below, we can see the 92.50 level significant as that's where we topped out last week before this push up. Note that as yesterday was a holiday - we'll be using Fridays value area to play off & consider anything since Friday as one large 'overnight' session.

Note also that it's the last day of the month and that could in itself cause a decent push up today that then fades away tomorrow.

Plan
- join any high volume moves above 05.25 (long), below 2100 (short)
- On a move down, be wary as we approach 92.50 and look to buy if buyers jump in off a bounce there

Weekly Numbers
Range 2041.25 -> 2096.75
Value - 2051.75 -> 2096.75
S1 - 2061.50, R1 - 2115.50

Daily Numbers
Range 2088 / 2089.25 -> 2096.75
Value 2091.25-> 2094.74
Globex 2096 -> 2103.75

Settlement - n/a

Today only - 2092.50

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Old June 1st, 2016, 07:01 AM   #784 (permalink)
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1st June

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Looking at the daily chart, we can see we did move away from the highs yesterday and volume was average in that move down. 1.6 million contracts. So I don't see yesterday as decisive.

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We have dipped into the upper distribution from last week, so eyes on the bottom of it around 82.50

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Yesterday was a typical swingy day on the ES. The start was slow and volume was initially low but picked up later on.
The Globex session has remained withing yesterdays session.

Plan
- Slight downside bias but consider this area to still be undecided.
- Watch for reactions at yesterdays extremes
- Wait for a break with volume and follow it
- If we get low participation from the open, let the volume profile build first and scalp off the edges.

Basically, being cautious here we have 3 things in play up here:
- the possibility of lots of people like me waiting to see which way it breaks (low participation)
- sharks swimming around looking to catch people offside
- the start of a new month meaning yesterdays push up could just have been 'bonus protection'

So treading carefully....

Weekly Numbers
Range 2086 -> 2103.75
Value - 2094.50 -> 2103
S1 - 2061.50, R1 - 2115.50


Daily Numbers

Range 2086 -> 2101.50 / 2102.75
Value 2090.50-> 2100
Globex 2088.50 -> 2099.25

Settlement - 2095

Today only - 2082.50

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 1st, 2016 at 08:34 AM.
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Old June 2nd, 2016, 07:59 AM   #785 (permalink)
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Market is still undecided. Volume declined yesterday to just under 1.3M. Like Tuesday, the first 30 minutes was quite dull too.

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I still have an eye on the 82.50 level. The low of the upper distribution from last week. We are building an evenly distributed profile and as such.

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There's really not much to say about this. Yesterday we traded around the overnight range. Overnight last night, we've stayed in yesterdays value area. So we have indecision but decent range for the past 2 days.

Value remains largely unchanged too.

Plan
- If we get low participation from the open, let the volume profile build first and scalp off the edges until the range breaks
- look to fade yesterdays extreme/value area on average volume
- follow breaks on high volume
- look to trade size on a breakdown of 82.50 (targeting 55)

Weekly Numbers
Range 2083.25 -> 2103.75
Value - 2093 -> 2102.50
S1 - 2061.50, R1 - 2115.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2083.25 -> 2099.25
Value 2090.50-> 2098
Globex 2088.50 -> 2098.25

Settlement - 2098

Today only - 2082.50

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 2nd, 2016 at 10:11 AM.
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Old June 3rd, 2016, 07:16 AM   #786 (permalink)
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3rd June

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Still unresolved at the highs. Volume just under 1.3M contracts yesterday - on the low side. Just waiting for it to break one way or the other.

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Eyes on value. We are above value for the week, so we could turn down any time now for a value trade.

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Yesterday was a big up day on mediocre volume. Overnight we've had low volume so far and very narrow action. It all seems like there's just not much willing to trade up here.

As such, it all makes you think that the downside is almost inevitable. Still, I'm going into today with no bias, partly because of employment numbers and partly because it might just be time for the market to take a probe up through the high.

As mentioned before, I won't take trades at the highs as I think there are too many different opinions and too much chance of manipulation up here.

Plan
- watch volume after the 8:30 am EST releases to see if it picks up
- if we are still around 2100-2105 into the open, wait for a break away from the overnight range in either direction
- if we don't get a pick up in volume and we stay around 2100-2105 - don't trade

Weekly Numbers
Range 2083.25 -> 2105
Value - 2091.25 -> 2101.75
S1 - 2061.50, R1 - 2115.50


Daily Numbers

Range 2086.75 -> 2103.50
Value 2088 -> 2098
Globex 2101.75 -> 2105

Settlement - 2103.75

Today only - 2082.50

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Old June 6th, 2016, 06:51 AM   #787 (permalink)
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6th June

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Volume is declining and we are still unresolved at the highs.

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A very evenly distributed week, so looking for fades at weekly value high/low as well as weeks extremes. Cautious in the middle though.

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Not much to get from this other than confirming we are in a range and that at this point in time, we are in the middle of it. So unless we see decent volume off the open, I'll wait for an extreme to hold.

Plan
- No bias
- Off the open, play off any high volume areas from overnight
- Join any high volume moves
- For lower volume moves, wait till we move to last weeks value extremes before taking a trade

Weekly Numbers
Range 2082.75 -> 2106
Value - 2091.25 -> 2102.25
S1 - 2085.75 R1 - 2107.25


Daily Numbers
Range 2082.75 -> 2101.25 / 2106
Value 2089 -> 2099.50
Globex 2094 -> 2099.25

Settlement - 2097.75

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Old June 7th, 2016, 04:23 AM   #788 (permalink)
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7th June

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We had a pop through the top yesterday. There wasn't much volume up there and we traded just under 1.4million. Traditionally, it's quite normal for a new high to generate excitement and for that in turn to generate a decent run up. In fact, back in the pit audio days, you could hear the pick up in activity as the market popped up.

The fact that this didn't occur yesterday doesn't mean we won't go up more but it does mean we have to be aware that we may actually grind up, which is something that traditionally leaves many traders (like me) behind because we look for pullbacks.

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No real profile built this week yet. The spike at the top is the upper range from yesterday that we are sitting in overnight but as it's just 1 trading day, I'm not giving it much significance.

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It was a really slow start yesterday, churning thousands of contracts off the open but that volume broke upside and we got a nice run up. That move up left lots of people behind because the open had all the appearance of a summertime chop day. There were swings both ways and money to be made both sides.

It's not exactly decisive, but I am going to watch 2105-2106 on the way down as that's the old all time high/last weeks high and a logical place for it to hold after testing 2100 twice.

Overnight is low volume once again and within yesterdays value area, so could be a slow start.

Plan
- no bias
- if we open in yesterdays value area - look for shorts of VAH, YH
- on any moves down, watch the 2105-2106 area (and 2104.25) for a hold for some more upside activity
- other than that, just take cue from the volume and jump on breaks of any high volume nodes that develop


Weekly Numbers
Range 2082.75 -> 2106
Value - 2091.25 -> 2102.25
S1 - 2085.75 R1 - 2107.25


Daily Numbers
Range 2094 / 2099.50 -> 2112.25
Value 2104.25 -> 2110.75
Globex 2106.50 -> 2109.75

Settlement - 2108.25

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 7th, 2016 at 04:31 AM.
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Old June 8th, 2016, 06:41 AM   #789 (permalink)
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8th June

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Volume still declining as is volatility. We are trading in new territory and at the moment not really building significant volume anywhere, so not much to stop us going down if sellers do come in. So far, a couple of days grind above the new highs is hardly inspiring.

We are also going into rollover tomorrow, so that will have an impact. Rollovers have historically been lackluster days but the past few quarters they have had good moves. I suspect we'll be back to a slow roll this time.

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I'm still looking at last weeks high/value high as potential support. Not really seeing much from this weeks profile to lean on.

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The profile makes yesterday look fairly decent but a closer look shows a lot of overlap in the TPOs (30 min periods) which meant it chopped up more than a nice trend up. Overall the market was very thick, with much of the time showing 1000+ on the DOM.

Yesterday we had

Quoting 
- other than that, just take cue from the volume and jump on breaks of any high volume nodes that develop

Early on (about 9:48), we has 5339 contracts trade at 2110.25/2110.50 - which was a good example of a high volume node that developed. To be honest, you could play those long or short. The fact that you have so much volume at 2 prices means that

- you don't have to have a large stop (just the other side of volume)
- the reaction will be much larger than the stop (as one side pukes out)

So that's the sort of thing to look out for, more because of the R:R than it being high probability. Contextually the fact that we were low volume, had NQ & YM doing different things meant a fade was appropriate.

So the plan today - is once again
- no bias
- if we open in yesterdays value area - look for shorts of VAH, YH
- on any moves down, watch the 2105-2106 area (and 2104.25) for a hold for some more upside activity
- other than that, just take cue from the volume and jump on breaks of any high volume nodes that develop

Weekly Numbers
Range 2094 -> 2118
Value - 2103 -> 2117
S1 - 2085.75 R1 - 2107.25


Daily Numbers
Range 2106.50 / 2109.25 -> 2118
Value 2112.50 -> 2117
Globex 2106.50 -> 2117

Settlement - 2110.25

Long Term 2105.25, 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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Last edited by DionysusToast; June 8th, 2016 at 10:30 AM.
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Old June 9th, 2016, 07:36 AM   #790 (permalink)
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9th June

No trading today - rollover

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