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DTs Pre Market Prep


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DTs Pre Market Prep

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19th April



We are almost at the 2100 level. Scenarios from here on are a roll over and back to 2000 or we push up and move on to new highs. We could spin around here for a few days whilst the market decides what to do and we have to avoid getting caught up in any manipulation up here as reversal/breakout traders get nudged out of position.

My philosophy is to let everyone else do the the heavy lifting and then get on board once the market has sorted itself out. The first thing to look for is volume coming in after a touch or push through 2100.



Below us we can see that the upper distribution from last week tops out about 2078.25. So if we move down, I'll be looking there for a hold and again, looking for volume to increase after the hold.



Similarly, 2081.75 is the break-out point/last weeks high, so again it's an area worth watching if we move down.

So the plan today
- be wary around 2100 as there's a chance of reversal/breakout traders getting nudged out of position
- look for volume to come in off a test - 2100 for a short, 78.25-81.75 for a long (plus yesterdays high/low/value area)
- Jump on any 'runaway' move that develops

If we do get through 2100, it's going to be very telling how many buyers there are up there.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2081.75
Value - 2044.50-> 2081
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2058.50/2065.25 -> 2088.75
Value 2079.25 -> 2088.75
Globex 2084.74 -> 2096.50

Settlement - 2086.75

Today only - 2078.75, 2081.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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20th April



I'll cut & paste from yesterdays prep to save typing:


Quoting 
We are almost at the 2100 level. Scenarios from here on are a roll over and back to 2000 or we push up and move on to new highs. We could spin around here for a few days whilst the market decides what to do and we have to avoid getting caught up in any manipulation up here as reversal/breakout traders get nudged out of position.

My philosophy is to let everyone else do the the heavy lifting and then get on board once the market has sorted itself out. The first thing to look for is volume coming in after a touch or push through 2100.



We can see an upper distribution building on this weeks developing profile.



And we can see we had good volatility on the push up on Monday but couldn't follow through on Tuesday and so I'm initially watching to see if Tuesdays range holds.

Plan
- Overal waiting for the market to resolve this 2100 level one way or the other
- Look to fade Tuesdays range but with confirmation as it's going to be an area prone for manipulation
- Let the market break and pull back and test before going with any break, again because of chances of manipulation
- On a push down watch for support at 2078.75 & 2081.75

Not much of a plan really! Just trying to avoid getting caught up in the excitement of a fake move, especially to the upside.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2098.50
Value - 2071.50 -> 2098.50
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2084.75 -> 2098.50
Value 2089.50 -> 2096
Globex 2085.75 -> 2094.50

Settlement - 2093.75

Today only - 2078.75, 2081.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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21 April



To avoid repetition...


Quoting 
We are almost at the 2100 level. Scenarios from here on are a roll over and back to 2000 or we push up and move on to new highs. We could spin around here for a few days whilst the market decides what to do and we have to avoid getting caught up in any manipulation up here as reversal/breakout traders get nudged out of position.

My philosophy is to let everyone else do the the heavy lifting and then get on board once the market has sorted itself out. The first thing to look for is volume coming in after a touch or push through 2100.

We have been above 2100 but had no real push up, so I consider it still unresolved.



We can see the upper distribution was widened 2085.50 -> 2103.50, so I'm looking to see if we rotate around that. So watching those extremes into the open.



We had a late pullback yesterday down to 95.75, which is just above the value area. So scenarios are:
1 - bounce off 95.75/VAL for a push up through the highs
2 - lazy roll over to range around 2085.50 -> 2103.50

Obviously employment numbers could throw the plans out the window.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2105.25
Value - 2085.50 -> 2103.50
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2085.75 / 2089.50 -> 2105.25
Value 2095.50 -> 2104.50
Globex 2094.75 -> 2104

Settlement - 2098

Today only - 2078.75, 2081.75, 2095.75

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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@DionysusToast

Hi Pete, apologies if you have mentioned this already, but what NinjaTrader tool do you use to draw these volume profile/market profile charts?

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@DionysusToast

Hi Pete, apologies if you have mentioned this already, but what NinjaTrader tool do you use to draw these volume profile/market profile charts?

think it is fin-alg.com

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Madafada View Post
think it is fin-alg.com

Thanks for that. It is indeed. Great package - never once failed.

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22nd April



We have come off the highs, I'm not convinced this means we have rejected them yet as this could be just a shake out. I have an eye on the 4th April high at 2071.50



We can see the upper distribution this week has widened. As we are at the bottom of it right now, there's decent probability we'll move up and rotate back to the top. The market thins out this week below 78, so there's a chance of a pop down below there.



Plan in my head for today
- Be wary of a pop down if 78 breaks
- look for 78 or 71.50 as potential support
- if we move up off the open, watch yesterdays low/value area for resistance, if so - join participation downside if it holds.
- if we move straight up off the open, look for overnight volume to lean on and be wary of yesterdays key levels

Weekly Numbers
Range 2058.50 -> 2105.25
Value - 2082.75 -> 2100.25
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2082.25 / 2089.50 -> 2104
Value 2087.50 -> 2097.50
Globex 2077.75 -> 2089

Settlement - 2082.75

Today only - 2071.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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My sons Birthday celebrations today, so no prep.

I'll save you some cake though.

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DionysusToast View Post
My sons Birthday celebrations today, so no prep.



I'll save you some cake though.



Congrats....

Chocolate? Whipped cream or buttercream frosting?

Ron

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Blash View Post
Congrats....

Chocolate? Whipped cream or buttercream frosting?

Ron

Strawberries & cream cake....

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