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DTs Pre Market Prep

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30th March



The market seems to have taken Yellens comments positively. So into today, looking to see if we can continue this up move and make it to 2100.



The value high from last week is 43.50, so if we do come down, I'll be looking to see if that holds. We've had a move up and now we could do with building a base to move up again. A move back down to 2043.50 could happen very quickly at this point as there's no real volume traded between where we are now and there.



I wouldn't pay too much attention to the value area from yesterday as the day is so elongated. I would watch out for the single print at 2040 as we did consolidate just below that yesterday.

So into today - looking for continuation up but very wary of the possibility of a drop to 40-43.50.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2019.25-> 2058.25
Value - 2022.25 -> 2036.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2019.25 -> 2047.50
Value 2023 -> 2041.50
Globex 2046.75 -> 2058.25

Settlement - 2047.50

Today only - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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31st March



A sluggish day yesterday but I'm still biased upside, looking for 2100 and ideally looking for people to come in on a test to the downside.



We have started to build an upper distribution above last weeks value high of 43.50, so I'm watching that on any downside move.



And also looking at yesterdays low at 46.75 to hold.

We really need to try to hold onto these gains, if we can, I think people will have more confidence to trade to the upside. If we slip below 43, then I think we could be looking at a test of Tuesdays low at 19.25.

If we discount Tuesday afternoon and the reaction from Yellen's statement, it's been a lackluster week. The upside of breaking yesterdays low is we should see a bit of volatility. So fingers crossed that the employment numbers help us out.

Be aware that it is the last day of the month, so we could get a push up from that today.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2019.25-> 2064.50
Value - 2020.75 -> 2051.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2046.75 / 2051.50 -> 2064.50
Value 2054.75 -> 2060.75
Globex 2047.25 -> 2056.25

Settlement - 2055.25

Today only - 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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1st April



Still a choppy market but I'm still biased to the upside and looking at 19.75 as a line in the sand for a long trade. Still biased upside towards 2100



We have a distribution of trading above last weeks value high, so also looking around the 43.50 area as support and looking to see if we get downside participation below it.



Yesterday we were within range but have popped below overnight. So first order of the day is whether we pop back into the range we have marked since the pop up on Tuesday. If we do get participation to the downside, I'd expect us to get to 2032 fairly quickly.

Thing is - there hasn't been much participation at all this week with the exception of the push up on Tuesday on the back of Yellens statement. This being Friday, I don't expect too much. Saying that - we have built a range in the past few days and any break out could see us hitting stops and help us make a tradable move.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2019.25-> 2064.50
Value - 2032.50 -> 2064.50


Daily Numbers
Range 2047.25 / 2048.75 -> 2059.75
Value 2053-> 2059.50
Globex 2042.25 -> 2056

Settlement - 2051.50

Today only - 2019.75, 2043.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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No prep this week - the kids are on holiday from school and I've been persuaded to take them to the beach.

Have a good week.

Cheers

Pete

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DionysusToast View Post
No prep this week - the kids are on holiday from school and I've been persuaded to take them to the beach.



Have a good week.



Cheers



Pete



Have fun!

My kids were off last week and are headed back this morning....

Ron

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Blash View Post
Have fun!

My kids were off last week and are headed back this morning....

Ron

Lucky you!

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12th April

Back from the beach and looks like the market didn't do much while I was gone.



I'm still looking for a test of 2100. Right now it's indecisive, I'm still bullish as long as we can stay above the 2020 level.



The weekly profiles overlap and aren't really adding much to the picture other than confirming a general lack of direction.



Same on the daily profiles.

So the plan
- look for support anywhere between 2020-2025 with a view to rolling back up to 2060-2065 and then possible rolling back down to continue the range.
- if 2020 breaks - watch the volume. If we can trigger stops below, we could get back to 1996.75.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2026-> 2071.50
Value - 2034.25 -> 2056.75
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063


Daily Numbers
Range 2032.50 / 2034.50 -> 2056.50
Value 2043.50 -> 2051.50
Globex 2029.25 -> 2043

Settlement - 2034.50

Today only - 2020

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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13th April



Up to the top of the range and it does look like it's going to break. Then again, I always think that at the top of every range. So today, the job is to watch what happens up here and then join the break or the reversal. My preference is to let the area resolve one way or the other before jumping on the resulting move.



Not much to show on the profiles yet, other than we are close to last weeks high.



This has been an elongated move up - we didn't make it all the way to the bottom of the range yesterday on the push down which is positive but there's no real pullpack/support area on the way. We didn't build positions/volume anywhere, so it's going to be fairly easy for it to go back down too. I'm watching yesterdays value area as well as the late pullback to 2052.

The plan today.
- watch for a fast move off the open and join it
- any move down may be short lived and just a shake out of overnight longs. So ready to cut shorts on sign of a failure.
- after the opening swing, I'm not too interested in engaging between 2065 and 2075. That's where I see the highest likelihood of short term manipulation. I'd rather let it play out first.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2069.25
Value - 2032.50 -> 2049.50
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063


Daily Numbers
Range 2029.25 / 2032.50 -> 2058.50
Value 2041-> 2057.50
Globex 2054 -> 2069.25

Settlement - 2055.75

Today only - 2020

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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April 14th



We managed to make a little progression upside but it's not a clear break yet, so whilst overall bias is still to a test of 2100, I am still wary of this being a headfake.



The weekly profile has a single print at 2063, so if we do move down, I'll be watching for a hold there.



Days are still pretty tight and as such, I'm looking to get in on one of the initial swings off the open. Yesterdays open didn't give us much in that respect but I'll still try today again.

Scenarios
- Off the open (or even before the open), I'd like to see a test of the value area or yesterdays day session low. So if we open above yesterdays high, I'll look for a test of VAH. If we open in value, I'll look for a test of VAL. If we can then move up, I think we could then gather the participation necessary for a break upside.
- If we grind up and don't test downside, I expect it to be less clear and take a little longer for people to jump on and more likely to chop until we can really get some distance past yesterdays high
- Same for downside, if we initiate down off a test of overnight high/yesterdays high, I expect it to be clearer, if not - I think it will be choppy.

So really today, I'm trying to figure out what could cause people to jump on a move and if I don't see that I'm expecting chop and will let the range form before trying anything.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2077
Value - 2032.50 -> 2061
S1 - 2022.50, R1 - 2063


Daily Numbers
Range 2054 / 2063.75 -> 2077
Value 2067.25 -> 2073.25
Globex 2068.50 -> 2076.50

Settlement - 2076

Today only - 2020, 2063

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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18th April



A gap down day. Now I'm not really a big fan of trading gaps as I don't consider a "settlment to open" difference a significant occurrence. These gaps where we gap below the prior days range and stay out of it, I consider a bit more relevant and will be looking at Fridays low as a significant level. Of course, this could fill in from now to the open.

Looking left, from here down to 2020 is an area we have chopped around in. With that in mind, the best probability of clean trade is to the upside.



From a volume profile perspective, we can see that we ate in the middle of last weeks range and so there's not much to get excited about in this area.



Looking left we have Tuesdays day session low at 2054 and I'm keeping an eye on that if we move down. That acted as support after the pop up.

The plan.
- we are in the middle of the range from the past few weeks, so expectations are low. That means looking to join the first swing or two with the expectation that volatility will dry up mid-morning.
- Look for a hold at Fridays Low (2054) or Tuesdays low (2069.50) as occurrences that could bring in some speculators and give us a run
- As usual, look for areas of high volume from overnight to play off.

Other than that - not expecting too much but would like nothing more than to be pleasantly surprised.

Weekly Numbers
Range 2029.25 -> 2081.75
Value - 2044.50-> 2081
S1 - 2042.25, R1 - 2094.75


Daily Numbers
Range 2069.50 -> 2077 / 2080
Value 2072 -> 2075.50
Globex 2058.50 -> 2068

Settlement - 2075

Today only - 2020, 2054, 2069.50

Long Term 2100, 1996.75, 1920, 1833.75, 1804.75

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